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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven cyber attack detection and mitigation for decentralized wide-area protection and control in smart grids

Modern power systems have already evolved into complicated cyber physical systems (CPS), often referred to as smart grids, due to the continuous expansion of the electrical infrastructure, the augmentation of the number of heterogeneous system components and players, and the consequential application of a diversity of information and telecommunication technologies to facilitate the Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC) of the day-to-day power system operation. Because of the reliance on cyber technologies, WAMPAC, among other critical functions, is prone to various malicious cyber attacks. Successful cyber attacks, especially those sabotage the operation of Bulk Electric System (BES), can cause great financial losses and social panics. Application of conventional IT security solutions is indispensable, but it often turns out to be insufficient to mitigate sophisticated attacks that deploy zero-day vulnerabilities or social engineering tactics. To further improve the resilience of the operation of smart grids when facing cyber attacks, it is desirable to make the WAMPAC functions per se capable of detecting various anomalies automatically, carrying out adaptive activity adjustments in time and thus staying unimpaired even under attack. Most of the existing research efforts attempt to achieve this by adding novel functional modules, such as model-based anomaly detectors, to the legacy centralized WAMPAC functions. In contrast, this dissertation investigates the application of data-driven algorithms in cyber attack detection and mitigation within a decentralized architecture aiming at improving the situational awareness and self-adaptiveness of WAMPAC. First part of the research focuses on the decentralization of System Integrity Protection Scheme (SIPS) with Multi-Agent System (MAS), within which the data-driven anomaly detection and optimal adaptive load shedding are further explored. An algorithm named as Support Vector Machine embedded Layered Decision Tree (SVMLDT) is proposed for the anomaly detection, which provides satisfactory detection accuracy as well as decision-making interpretability. The adaptive load shedding is carried out by every agent individually with dynamic programming. The load shedding relies on the load profile propagation among peer agents and the attack adaptiveness is accomplished by maintaining the historical mean of load shedding proportion. Load shedding only takes place after the consensus pertaining to the anomaly detection is achieved among all interconnected agents and it serves the purpose of mitigating certain cyber attacks. The attack resilience of the decentralized SIPS is evaluated using IEEE 39 bus model. It is shown that, unlike the traditional centralized SIPS, the proposed solution is able to carry out the remedial actions under most Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. The second part investigates the clustering based anomalous behavior detection and peer-assisted mitigation for power system generation control. To reduce the dimensionality of the data, three metrics are designed to interpret the behavior conformity of generator within the same balancing area. Semi-supervised K-means clustering and a density sensitive clustering algorithm based on Hierarchical DBSCAN (HDBSCAN) are both applied in clustering in the 3D feature space. Aiming to mitigate the cyber attacks targeting the generation control commands, a peer-assisted strategy is proposed. When the control commands from control center is detected as anomalous, i.e. either missing or the payload of which have been manipulated, the generating unit utilizes the peer data to infer and estimate a new generation adjustment value as replacement. Linear regression is utilized to obtain the relation of control values received by different generating units, Moving Target Defense (MTD) is adopted during the peer selection and 1-dimensional clustering is performed with the inferred control values, which are followed by the final control value estimation. The mitigation strategy proposed requires that generating units can communicate with each other in a peer-to-peer manner. Evaluation results suggest the efficacy of the proposed solution in counteracting data availability and data integrity attacks targeting the generation controls. However, the strategy stays effective only if less than half of the generating units are compromised and it is not able to mitigate cyber attacks targeting the measurements involved in the generation control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifting Left for Machine Learning: An Empirical Study of Security Weaknesses in Supervised Learning-based Projects

Context: Supervised learning-based projects (SLPs), i.e., software projects that use supervised learning algorithms, such as decision trees are useful for performing classification-related tasks. Yet, security weaknesses, such as the use of hard-coded passwords in SLPs, can make SLPs susceptible to security attacks. A characterization of security weaknesses in SLPs can help practitioners understand the security weaknesses that are frequent in SLPs and adopt adequate mitigation strategies. Objective: The goal of this paper is to help practitioners se-curely develop supervised learning-based projects by conducting an empirical study of security weaknesses in supervised learning-based projects. Methodology: We conduct an empirical study by quantifying the frequency of security weaknesses in 278 open source SLPs. Results: We identify 22 types of security weaknesses that occur in SLPs. We observe ‘use of potentially dangerous function’ to be the most frequently occurring security weakness in SLPs. Of the identified 3,964 security weaknesses, 23.79 % and 40.49 % respectively, appear for source code files used to train and test models. We also observe evidence of co-location, e.g., instances of command injection co-locates with instances of potentially dangerous function. Conclusion: Based on our findings, we advocate for a shift left approach for SLP development with security-focused code reviews, and application of security static analysis.

Bhuiyan, Farzana Ahamed↗
DOE OSTI2021

IoT Intrusion Detection Taxonomy, Reference Architecture, and Analyses

This paper surveys the deep learning (DL) approaches for intrusion-detection systems (IDSs) in Internet of Things (IoT) and the associated datasets toward identifying gaps, weaknesses, and a neutral reference architecture. A comparative study of IDSs is provided, with a review of anomaly-based IDSs on DL approaches, which include supervised, unsupervised, and hybrid methods. All techniques in these three categories have essentially been used in IoT environments. To date, only a few have been used in the anomaly-based IDS for IoT. For each of these anomaly-based IDSs, the implementation of the four categories of feature(s) extraction, classification, prediction, and regression were evaluated. We studied important performance metrics and benchmark detection rates, including the requisite efficiency of the various methods. Four machine learning algorithms were evaluated for classification purposes: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, we compared each via the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The study model exhibits promising outcomes for all classes of attacks. The scope of our analysis examines attacks targeting the IoT ecosystem using empirically based, simulation-generated datasets (namely the Bot-IoT and the IoTID20 datasets).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Decision Trees for Analysis of Strategies to Deter Limited Nuclear Use in a Generic Scenario

We assert that analysis of a decision tree model can reveal key insights for deterring limited nuclear use in a conventional conflict. To illustrate the method, we develop a decision analysis model to explore the choices an attacker would make and how they can be influenced by his perceptions of the defender’s capabilities and potential responses. Sensitivity analysis with the model can provide insights into strategies and actions the defender might take in order to influence the choices the attacker would make. This methodology is widely applicable and could provide insight into a variety of scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Boreal Forest Spruce Beetle Health Status at the Individual Crown Scale Using Fused Spectral and Structural Data

The frequency and severity of spruce bark beetle outbreaks are increasing in boreal forests leading to widespread tree mortality and fuel conditions promoting extreme wildfire. Detection of beetle infestation is a forest health monitoring (FHM) priority but is hampered by the challenges of detecting early stage (“green”) attack from the air. There is indication that green stage might be detected from vertical gradients of spectral data or from shortwave infrared information distributed within a single crown. To evaluate the efficacy of discriminating “non-infested”, “green”, and “dead” health statuses at the landscape scale in Alaska, USA, this study conducted spectral and structural fusion of data from: (1) Unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral (6 cm) + structure from motion point clouds (~700 pts per sq. m); and (2) Goddard Lidar Hyperspectral Thermal (G-LiHT) hyperspectral (400 to 1000 nm, 0.5 m) + SWIR-band lidar (~32 pts per sq.m). We achieved 78% accuracy for all three health statuses using spectral + structural fusion from either UAV or G-LiHT and 97% accuracy for non-infested/dead using G-LiHT. We confirm that UAV 3D spectral (e.g., greenness above versus below median height in crown) and lidar apparent reflectance metrics (e.g., mean reflectance at 99th percentile height in crown), are of high value, perhaps capturing the vertical gradient of needle degradation. In most classification exercises, UAV accuracy was lower than G-LiHT indicating that collecting ultra-high spatial resolution data might be less important than high spectral resolution information. While the value of passive optical spectral information was largely confined to the discrimination of non-infested versus dead crowns, G-LiHT hyperspectral band selection (~400, 675, 755, and 940 nm) could inform future FHM mission planning regarding optimal wavelengths for this task. Interestingly, the selected regions mostly did not align with the band designations for our UAV multispectral data but do correspond to, e.g., Sentinel-2 red edge bands, suggesting a path forward for moderate scale bark beetle detection when paired with suitable structural data.

Janice Cessna↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resist! : Sustaining forest carbon sequestration and wood production after insect disturbance

Disturbances from insect pests threaten ecologically and economically important goods and services supplied by forests, including wood production and carbon sequestration. We highlight the factors that influence these services’ resistance, a term quantifying the initial response to disturbance. Insects inflict damage through a range of mechanisms, prompting distinct plant physiological responses that scale to influence ecosystem processes and, with time, goods and services. The degree and timing of tree mortality and defoliation affect the amount of residual vegetation available to support compensatory wood production and influence carbon sequestration by changing rates of detritus-fueled decomposition. Compounding, or sequential, insect attacks may prime a forest for additional disturbance, further eroding wood production and carbon sequestration. Forest management practices that promote biological and structural diversity, and augment or retain limiting biological and nutrient resources, may buffer against the effects of insect pests on wood production and carbon sequestration.

Gough, Christopher M. [Virginia Commonwealth Univ.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Machine Learning

Wide-area protection scheme (WAPS) provides system-wide protection by detecting and mitigating small and large-scale disturbances that are difficult to resolve using local protection schemes. As this protection scheme is evolving from a substation-based distributed remedial action scheme (DRAS) to the control center-based centralized RAS (CRAS), it presents severe challenges to their cybersecurity because of its heavy reliance on an insecure grid communication, and its compromise would lead to system failure. This article presents an architecture and methodology for developing a cyber-physical anomaly detection system (CPADS) that utilizes synchrophasor measurements and properties of network packets to detect data integrity and communication failure attacks on measurement and control signals in CRAS. The proposed machine leaning-based methodology applies a rules-based approach to select relevant input features, utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) and decision tree (DT) algorithms to develop multiple classification models, and performs final event identification using a rules-based decision logic. Here, we have evaluated the proposed methodology of CPADS using the IEEE 39 bus system for several performance measures (accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure) in a cyber-physical testbed environment. Furthermore, our experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm (VMD-DT) of CPADS outperforms the existing machine learning classifiers during noisy and noise-free measurements while incurring an acceptable processing overhead.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

tree die-off↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Scalable HPC Insider Threat Monitoring System

Cyber Equations, Inc. is reporting on the results of its DOE SBIR Phase I project for the development of a Scalable HPC Insider Threat Monitoring System. This final report to the Department of Energy for Task DE-FOA-0001618 covers the period from 02/21/2017 to 02/20/2018 and summarizes the larger research accomplishments, which can be divided in theoretical and laboratory experiments. One of the many challenges for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is the support of the high-performance computing (HPC) centers while providing quality information services, strategic vision, leadership, technical expertise, and capabilities necessary to enable the DOE to deliver effective, efficient, economical, and secure HPC services. In order to realize a secure DOE laboratory enterprise, DOE facilities operations must counter a wide range of cyber insider threats, from unsophisticated adversaries up to advanced, nation state sponsored actors. The DOE laboratories also presents an enormous insider attack surface of an ever-growing number of computers, networks, and devices all running a myriad of software. In addition, the DOE laboratories are connected to a variety of external organizations which multiplies the possibility of insider threat. During this SBIR project Cyber Equations developed a strategic combination of supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to control scale and classify whether entities, such as hosts, actors, or documents, are showing suspicious insider behavior. We conducted experiments using real cyber data to show that changes in observable behavior (e.g., changes in outbound traffic patterns) are indicative of attacks executing (e.g., insiders exfiltrating data, bots calling home, or an attack spreading). The features and methods we use, have been used in the anomaly detection research and development community for a significant amount of time and robust implementations are openly available. K-Means clustering, Decision Trees, and Support Vector Machine based classifiers are readily available through the R language and open source H20 machine learning framework. The Cyber Equations approach is novel in its use of these classifiers combined with Hadoop based parallel processing technology. The five stages of processing used by CyberInsider improve scalability and reduce the high number of false positives normally associated with network anomaly detection. In summary, the Cyber Equations has successfully accomplished all of its Phase I tasks and demonstrated the feasibility of the Insider Threat Monitoring System.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A non-cooperative meta-modeling game for automated third-party calibrating, validating and falsifying constitutive laws with parallelized adversarial attacks

The evaluation of constitutive models, especially for high-risk and high-regret engineering applications, requires efficient and rigorous third-party calibration, validation and falsification. While there are numerous efforts to develop paradigms and standard procedures to validate models, difficulties may arise due to the sequential, manual, and often biased nature of the commonly adopted calibration and validation processes, thus slowing down data collections, hampering the progress towards discovering new physics, increasing expenses and possibly leading to misinterpretations of the credibility and application ranges of proposed models. This work attempts to introduce concepts from game theory and machine learning techniques to overcome many of these existing difficulties. Here, we introduce an automated meta-modeling game where two competing AI agents systematically generate experimental data to calibrate a given constitutive model and to explore its weakness such that the experiment design and model robustness can be improved through competitions. The two agents automatically search for the Nash equilibrium of the meta-modeling game in an adversarial reinforcement learning framework without human intervention. In particular, a protagonist agent seeks to find the more effective ways to generate data for model calibrations, while an adversary agent tries to find the most devastating test scenarios that expose the weaknesses of the constitutive model calibrated by the protagonist. By capturing all possible design options of the laboratory experiments into a single decision tree, we recast the design of experiments as a game of combinatorial moves that can be resolved through deep reinforcement learning by the two competing players. Our adversarial framework emulates idealized scientific collaborations and competitions among researchers to achieve a better understanding of the application range of the learned material laws and prevent misinterpretations caused by conventional AI-based third-party validation. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the wide applicability of the proposed meta-modeling game with adversarial attacks on both human-crafted constitutive models and machine learning models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
DOE OSTI2021

Digital data provenance for the power grid based on a Keyless Infrastructure Security Solution

In this work a data provenance system for grid-oriented applications is presented. The proposed Keyless Infrastructure Security Solution (KISS) provides mechanisms to store and maintain digital data fingerprints that can later be used to validate and assert data provenance using a time-based, hash tree mechanism. The developed solution has been designed to satisfy the stringent requirements of the modern power grid including execution time and storage necessities. Its applicability has been tested using a lab-scale, proof-of-concept deployment that secures an energy management system against the attack sequence observed on the 2016 Ukrainian power grid cyberattack. The results demonstrate a strong potential for enabling data provenance in a wide array of applications, including speed-sensitive applications such as those found in control room environments.

Sebastian Cardenas, David J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗