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2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 14: Summary and Path Forward

The 2020 State of the Science report collates and presents the current understanding of interactions between marine renewable energy (MRE) systems and the marine environment, with an emphasis on their effects on marine animals, habitats, and oceanographic systems, using publicly available information. The report places this information in context through lessons learned from research studies in the laboratory and in the field, modeling simulations, and deployments; monitoring around demonstration, pilot, and small commercial MRE projects; and identifies gaps in knowledge and makes recommendations for filling those gaps. In addition, strategies for moving toward a consistent and effective consenting or permitting (hereafter consenting) process and management of the potential effects of MRE development are highlighted. The status and recommendations from each of the priority interactions between MRE devices and the environment are summarized here, and the management strategies for facilitating development are discussed. Finally, a path forward toward commercial MRE development is explored. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-14-summary-path-forward

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

OES-Environmental 2020 State of the Science Report: Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development Around the World. Report for Ocean Energy Systems (OES)

This report summarizes the state of the science related to marine renewable energy devices and their interactions with and effects on the marine environment, the animals that live there, and the habitats that support them. This report serves an update and a complement to the 2016 Annex IV report. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020

03 NATURAL GAS↗

When x-rays alter the course of your experiments

The continuing increase in the brilliance of synchrotron radiation beamlines allows for many new and exciting experiments that were impossible before the present generation of synchrotron radiation sources came on line. However, the exposure to such intense beams also tests the limits of what samples can endure. Whilst the effects of radiation induced damage in a static experiment often can easily be recognized by changes in the diffraction or spectroscopy curves, the influence of radiation on chemical or physical processes, where one expects curves to change, is less often recognized and can be misinterpreted as a 'real' result instead of as a 'radiation influenced result'. This is especially a concern in time-resolved materials science experiments using techniques as powder diffraction, small angle scattering and x-ray absorption spectroscopy. In this work, the effects of radiation (5–50 keV) on some time-resolved processes in different types of materials and in different physical states are discussed. We show that such effects are not limited to soft matter and biology but rather can be found across the whole spectrum of materials research, over a large range of radiation doses and is not limited to very high brilliance beamlines.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 5: Risk to Animals from Electromagnetic Fields Emitted by Electric Cables and Marine Renewable Energy Devices

Interest in the potential effects of anthropogenic electromagnetic fields (EMFs) within the marine environment has increased in recent years, in part as a result of advanced knowledge gained from conducting dedicated research studies. To understand and interpret the potential environmental interactions of marine renewable energy (MRE)-related EMF emissions, it is necessary to consider the source of the EMFs and address the source within the context of the knowledge about the electro- and magneto-sensitivity of marine species. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-5-electromagnetic-fields

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finch: Toxicity Dose Response Curve Prediction of Chemical Compounds and Mixtures

A paradigm shift in chemical risk assessment is emphasizing mixture testing over single compound analysis, eliminating animal testing, and adopting advanced modeling approaches to understand mixture activity profiles. However, existing computational models largely focus on single chemicals, with few effective solutions for modeling complex mixtures that account for synergistic or antagonistic effects and multiple Modes of Action (MoA). Conventional methods like concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) are insufficient for this task as they are designed for simplistic interactions and struggle to account for the dynamic and multifaceted nature of chemical mixtures, such as overlapping MoA and non-linear interactions. Finch offers a novel approach utilizing deep learning (DL) embeddings and multi-task quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to improve chemical exposure prediction. By leveraging molecular descriptors, physiochemical properties, and large language model (LLM) embeddings from SMILES inputs, Finch preserves critical information in a latent space thereby enhancing predictive accuracy. The multi-task learning aspect of Finch is highly advantageous, as it simultaneously optimizes multiple loss functions, leveraging all available data across tasks to develop generalized representations that effectively capture complex ingredient interactions within mixtures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 2: Marine Renewable Energy: Environmental Effects and Monitoring Strategies

As we learn more about interactions between marine renewable energy (MRE) devices, the animals and habitats near them, and the oceanographic processes with which they interact, we need to clarify the language used to discuss those interactions. For example, if an MRE device or system negatively affected a number of animals, we could say that the device or the system of foundations, anchors, and mooring lines had an impact on the population, and take steps to avoid the impact or, in some cases, mitigate the impact. However, at this stage in MRE development, there are few, if any, cases in which a negative impact has been observed or measured. Instead, we are developing the building blocks that support investigations of interactions and potential impacts. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-2-environmental-effects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 20th Gray lecture 2019: Health and heavy ions

Particle radiobiology has contributed new understanding of radiation safety and underlying mechanisms of action to radiation oncology for the treatment of cancer, and to planning of radiation protection for space travel. This manuscript will highlight the significance of precise physical and biologically effective dosimetry to this translational research for the benefit of human health. This review provides a brief snapshot of the evolving scientific basis for, and the complex current global status, and remaining challenges of hadron therapy for the treatment of cancer. The need for particle radiobiology for risk planning in return missions to the Moon, and exploratory deep-space missions to Mars and beyond are also discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Investigating the Impacts of Outdoor Lighting (Final Report)

This report documents the research associated with the Depart of Energy supported project “Investigating the Health Impact of Outdoor Lighting.” This project was developed to consider how alternative solid state lighting options, particularly the spectral power distribution, effected the hormone melatonin which ultimately could lead to potential health issues. The project also provides an opportunity to gather other secondary data with respect to visual performance in a controlled environment. These tasks were developed to consider how alternative solid state lighting applications impacted performance. This report is a complete documentation of the tasks undertaken as part of this project. The report includes a literature review and consideration of the background data which are part of this field of study as well as a documentation of the methods developed as part of the project. The melatonin results, the primary dependent variable are included in the attached peer-review paper that has been recent published (Gibbons et al., 2022). Our discussion of these results are included in that publication. Other results from this project will be documented in one or more future publications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 12: Adaptive Management Related to Marine Renewable Energy

As the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry is rapidly ramped up from single devices to commercial-scale deployments, developers and regulators will need evidence of the environmental effects of MRE to inform project development and consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes. Uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of novel RE technologies on sensitive marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes means that even robust baseline environmental information cannot comprehensively address all pre-deployment knowledge gaps. Tools and practical approaches are needed to help with the sustainable development of the industry. Adaptive management (AM), also referred to as learning by/while doing, enables projects to be deployed incrementally, despite uncertainty, in a way that prevents unacceptable harm to the marine environment. If rigorously implemented, this approach may provide a reliable mechanism for closing knowledge gaps, thereby retiring risks for future MRE developments. This chapter explores and suggests a pathway for applying a passive approach to AM for the consenting of single devices and array-scale MRE projects. Complementary information is available online at https://tethys.pnnl.gov/state-of-thescience-2020 -supplementaryadaptive-management. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-12-adaptive-management

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: accounting for specific biological mechanisms

The probability that an observed cancer was caused by radiation exposure is usually estimated using cancer rates and risk models from radioepidemiological cohorts and is called assigned share (AS). This definition implicitly assumes that an ongoing carcinogenic process is unaffected by the studied radiation exposure. However, there is strong evidence that radiation can also accelerate an existing clonal development towards cancer. In this work, we define different association measures that an observed cancer was newly induced, accelerated, or retarded. The measures were quantified exemplarily by Monte Carlo simulations that track the development of individual cells. Three biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) models were applied. In the first model, radiation initiates cancer development, while in the other two, radiation has a promoting effect, i.e. radiation accelerates the clonal expansion of pre-cancerous cells. The parameters of the TSCE models were derived from breast cancer data from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For exposure at age 30, all three models resulted in similar estimates of AS at age 60. For the initiation model, estimates of association were nearly identical to AS. However, for the promotion models, the cancerous clonal development was frequently accelerated towards younger ages, resulting in associations substantially higher than AS. This work shows that the association between a given cancer and exposure in an affected person depends on the underlying biological mechanism and can be substantially larger than the AS derived from classic radioepidemiology.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Association of human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 with prevalent rheumatoid arthritis among atomic bomb survivors: A cross-sectional study

Previous studies have suggested that human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1) might act as a pathogen in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but epidemiological evidence of an association is scarce. We measured anti-HTLV-1 antibodies among Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors to determine whether HTLV-1 is related to RA and whether radiation exposure is associated with HTLV-1 and RA prevalence. This is a cross-sectional study among atomic bomb survivors who participated in biennial health examinations from 2006 to 2010. Serum levels of anti-HTLV-1 antibodies were measured using a chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay and confirmed by Western blotting. Association between HTLV-1 and RA was analyzed by a logistic regression model. Of 2091 participants (women 61.5%; median age, 73 years), 215 (10.3%) had anti-HTLV-1 antibodies. HTLV-1 prevalence was higher among women (13.1% vs 5.8%; P<.001). Twenty-two participants (1.1%) were diagnosed with RA. HTLV-1 prevalence among RA participants was significantly higher than that among non-RA participants (27.3% vs 10.1%; P=.020). After adjustment for age, sex, and hepatitis C virus infection, HTLV-1 was significantly associated with prevalent RA (odds ratio, 2.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.06, 7.03). There was no association between radiation dose and either the prevalence of HTLV-1 or RA. This study, among a well-defined group of atomic bomb survivors, suggests that HTLV-1 is associated with RA. Abbreviations: AHS = Adult Health Study, ATL/ATLL = adult T cell leukemia/lymphoma, bioDMARDs = biological disease modifying antirheumatic drugs, CCP = cyclic citrullinated peptide, CI = confidence interval, CLEIA = chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay, CRP = C-reactive protein, csDMARDs = conventional synthetic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs, Gy = gray, HCV = hepatitis C virus, HTLV-1 = human T-cell leukemia virus type 1, IF = immunofluorescent, RA = rheumatoid arthritis, RERF = Radiation Effects Research Foundation, RF = rheumatoid factor, SS = Sjogren syndrome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Subsurface microbial communities as a tool for characterizing regional-scale groundwater flow

Subsurface microbial community distribution patterns are influenced by biogeochemical and groundwater fluxes and may inform hydraulic connections along groundwater-flow paths. This study examined the regional-scale microbial community of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and evaluated whether subsurface communities can be used to identify groundwater-flow paths between recharge and discharge areas. Samples were collected from 36 sites in three groundwater basins: Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV), Ash Meadows (AM), and Alkali Flat–Furnace Creek Ranch (AFFCR). Microbial diversity within and between communities varied by location, and communities were separated into two overall groups that affiliated with the AM and PMOV/AFFCR basins. Network analysis revealed patterns between clusters of common microbes that represented groundwaters with similar geochemical conditions and largely corroborated hydraulic connections between recharge and discharge areas. Null model analyses identified deterministic and stochastic ecological processes contributing to microbial community assemblages. Most communities were more different than expected and governed by dispersal limitation, geochemical differences, or undominating processes. However, certain communities from sites located within or near the Nevada National Security Site were more similar than expected and dominated by homogeneous dispersal or selection. Overall, the (dis)similarities between the microbial communities of DVRFS recharge and discharge areas supported previously documented hydraulic connections between: (1) Spring Mountains and Ash Meadows; (2) Frenchman and Yucca Flat and Amargosa Desert; and (3) Amargosa Desert and Death Valley. However, only a portion of the flow path between Pahute Mesa and Oasis Valley could be supported by microbial community analyses, likely due to well-associated artifacts in samples from the two Oasis Valley sites. This study demonstrates the utility of combining microbial data with hydrologic, geologic, and water-chemistry information to comprehensively characterize groundwater systems, highlighting both strengths and limitations of this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Longitudinal Surveillance for Chronic Health Conditions in Former United States Department of Energy Site Workers

The aim of the study was to determine (1) the rate at which rescreening former Department of Energy site workers identifies noncommunicable chronic diseases and (2) the development of comorbid conditions. Incidence and prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, reduced kidney function, and peripheral neuropathy at both initial and return screenings were calculated. Risk ratio of chronic disease development at return screening based on the presence of other conditions at initial screening were estimated with generalized linear regression. Prevalence of reduced kidney function was 19% at initial examination and 30% at return examination. The screening program was responsible for identifying 81% of reduced kidney function cases. Similar findings were present for the other chronic conditions examined. As a result, former worker health surveillance programs help identify significant health conditions among DOE workers, subcontractors, and visitors. Longitudinal screening of participants detects additional chronic conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 3: Collision Risk for Animals around Turbines

The potential for marine animals to encounter and collide with turbines, especially tidal and river turbines, along with the biological, ecological, and regulatory consequences of any such interactions, remain active areas of research and topics of global interest. Uncertainty and knowledge gaps associated with collision risk continue to present challenges within consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes for turbine developments. Consequently, collision risk continues to be the focus of significant research effort, which in recent years has included environmental monitoring of operational devices and arrays. This chapter addresses the overall progress and growth in knowledge across this topic area, and specific progress related to marine mammals, fish, and seabirds. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-3-collision

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 4: Risk to Marine Animals from Underwater Noise Generated by Marine Renewable Energy Devices

In all ocean environments, desirable locations for wave and tidal energy development have multiple natural sources of sound (e.g., waves, wind, and sediment transport), varying levels of anthropogenic and biological noise, and measurement quality challenges (e.g., flow-noise, self-noise). Many marine animals rely on sound for biological functions, including communication, social interaction, orientation, foraging, and evasion. The extent to which marine animals detect and produce sound varies by frequency (spanning roughly four decades from 10 Hz to 100 kHz) and is taxa-specific. Because of the relatively limited data available, hearing sensitivity is often generalized to taxonomic groups (e.g., cetaceans that have low-frequency hearing specialization). https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-4-underwater-noise

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plant Growth Study: Growth of Three Plant Species in 100-OL-1 Operable Unit Soils

Soil contamination from historical application of lead arsenate pesticides persists in the 100-OL-1 Operable Unit (OU) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in Benton County, Washington. A remedial investigation used a portable X-ray fluorescence analyzer to estimate and map the concentrations of metals in surface soil in the 133 decision units comprising the OU. There is variability in lead and arsenic concentrations among the non-contiguous decision units, and an incomplete understanding of the ecological and human risks from soil contamination. While general screening criteria for lead are reported in literature, limited information is available on the impacts of heavy metals on site-specific plant and animal life. To address this information gap, a study on plant growth in Hanford soils was conducted using native bluegrass (Poa secunda), invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and buttercrunch lettuce (Lactuca sativa). The latter is included because it is a common species used in plant growth studies. Soil samples were collected from a single general location within the 100-OL-1 OU, prepared, and categorized as having low, medium, or high concentrations of lead and arsenic, with the high concentration soil having concentrations of up to 3,400 and 790 mg/kg lead and arsenic, respectively. Additionally, a synthetic soil was prepared and used as a control, in accordance with standard plant growth protocols. Fifty-four seeds of each plant species were planted in each of the four soil types following the procedure outlined by the Washington State Department of Ecology. Germination rates and biomass measurements were recorded for 20 days. Both bluegrass and lettuce germination rates appeared to be reduced at the highest lead and arsenic concentrations (Pb: 3400 mg/kg, As: 790 mg/kg), while cheatgrass germination rates were unaffected. Total biomass for all species appeared to be related to the relative concentrations of lead and arsenic in the soil. Results of this growth study agree reasonably well with previous Hanford Site plant growth studies and provide additional data for assessing ecological risk at the Hanford Site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗