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DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Causes of Three Recent Major Blackouts and What Is Being Done in Response

While the power grid is designed to have an adequate supply of electricity generating capacity under hot and cold conditions well above or below average, weather in recent years has approached the bounds of anticipated conditions, in both magnitude and duration. Extreme weather can result in unanticipated levels of electricity demand and correlated power plant outages driven by extreme temperatures. How power system planners account for the changing role of wind and solar also plays an important role in the power grid's ability to supply enough electricity during extreme weather. In response to recent significant outages, power system planners have been focusing on ensuring methods to evaluate reliability during periods of "net peak demand" consider availability of renewable resources and capture the impact of extreme weather on power plants of all types. In particular, there is significant emphasis on the ability of natural gas-fueled power plants to operate during periods of extreme cold temperatures. The impact of extreme weather on the need to change planning processes is demonstrated in this fact sheet that discusses three significant outages that occurred in recent years.

power grid↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Study of the Impact of Peak Demand on Increasing Vulnerability of Cascading Failures to Extreme Contingency Events

The vulnerability of large power systems to cascading failures and major blackouts has become evident since the Northeast blackout in 1965. Based on analyses of the series of cascading blackouts in the past decade, the research community realized the urgent need to develop better methods, tools, and practices for performing cascading-outage analysis and for evaluating mitigations that are easily accessible by utility planning engineers. PNNL has developed the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) as an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT analysis will help identify potential vulnerabilities and allow study of mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. Using the DCAT capability, we examined the impacts of various load conditions to identify situations in which the power grid may encounter cascading outages that could lead to potential blackouts. This paper describes the usefulness of the DCAT tool and how it helps to understand potential impacts of load demand on cascading failures on the power system.

indexes↗

DOE OSTI2019

Availability Assessment Based Case-Sensitive Power System Restoration Strategy

Increasingly frequent severe weather events in recent years threaten the security of power systems and result in major power outages throughout the world. The development of reasonable power system restoration (PSR) solutions is therefore urgently needed to speed up the recovery of the power supply while at the same time steering clear of vulnerable and risky equipment. This paper aims to develop a case-sensitive PSR model for power transmission systems that can adjust restoration solutions according to the evaluated availability of outage equipment in specific blackout scenarios and weather conditions. A novel PSR model that integrates the startup of generating units, formulation of the restoration network, renewable energy sources, and availability assessment of devices is proposed. A reformulated model is also proposed to relieve the computational burden of complex PSR problems. The availability of outage equipment is comprehensively assessed based on historical operating records, fault diagnosis results, and weather conditions. The assessed availability results are sensitive to the characteristics of real blackout cases and will support system operators generate case-sensitive PSR solutions while mitigating the vulnerable equipment. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSR model and its reformulations are verified through case studies.

availability assessment↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Load Tap Changer Control Operation Under Microgrid Conditions

Every microgrid is unique in its diversity of assets, operation, and network structure. This uniqueness presents challenges for each microgrid implementation that need to be understood and addressed to prevent power quality concerns, stability issues, and blackouts. In this research work, we present one challenge faced during microgrid operation that could potentially cause a blackout in some microgrid configurations. Through the incorrect operation of the load tap changer controller during an islanding event for a microgrid with generation present on both primary and secondary busses, the primary voltage will increase or decrease beyond allowable bounds, causing a cascading failure. This work presents the issue first with simulation results to demonstrate the phenomenon and then presents results of load tap changer controller operation using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop experiment. Finally, details of the complete sequence of operation and the blackout scenarios are presented and summarized.

blackout↗

DOE OSTI2015

The propagation characteristics of electromagnetic waves through plasma in the near-field region of low-frequency loop antenna

A high-speed vehicle flying through the atmosphere between 100 and 20 km may suffer from a “communication blackout.” In this paper, a low frequency system with an on-board loop antenna to receive signals is presented as a potential blackout mitigation method. Because the plasma sheath is in the near-field region of the loop antenna, the traditional scattering matrix method that is developed for the far-field region may overestimate the electromagnetic (EM) wave's attenuation. To estimate the EM wave's attenuation in the near-field region, EM interference (EMI) shielding theory is introduced. Experiments are conducted, and the results verify the EMI shielding theory's effectiveness. Simulations are also conducted with different plasma parameters, and the results obtained show that the EM wave's attenuation in the near-field region is far below than that in the far-field region. The EM wave's attenuation increases with the increase in electron density and decreases with the increase in collision frequency. The higher the frequency, the larger is the EM wave's attenuation. During the entire re-entry phase of a RAM-C module, the EM wave's attenuations are below 10 dB for EM waves with a frequency of 1 MHz and below 1 dB for EM waves with a frequency of 100 kHz. Therefore, the low frequency systems (e.g., Loran-C) may provide a way to transmit some key information to high-speed vehicles even during the communication “blackout” period.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Parametric and experimentally informed BWR Severe Accident Analysis Utilizing FeCrAl - M3FT-17OR020205041

Iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys are being considered as advanced fuel cladding concepts with enhanced accident tolerance. At high temperatures, FeCrAl alloys have slower oxidation kinetics and higher strength compared with zirconium-based alloys. FeCrAl could be used for fuel cladding and spacer or mixing vane grids in light water reactors and/or as channel box material in boiling water reactors (BWRs). There is a need to assess the potential gains afforded by the FeCrAl accident-tolerant-fuel (ATF) concept over the existing zirconium-based materials employed today. To accurately assess the response of FeCrAl alloys under severe accident conditions, a number of FeCrAl properties and characteristics are required. These include thermophysical properties as well as burst characteristics, oxidation kinetics, possible eutectic interactions, and failure temperatures. These properties can vary among different FeCrAl alloys. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has pursued refined values for the oxidation kinetics of the B136Y FeCrAl alloy (Fe-13Cr-6Al wt %). This investigation included oxidation tests with varying heating rates and end-point temperatures in a steam environment. The rate constant for the low-temperature oxidation kinetics was found to be higher than that for the commercial APMT FeCrAl alloy (Fe-21Cr-5Al-3Mo wt %). Compared with APMT, a 5 times higher rate constant best predicted the entire dataset (root mean square deviation). Based on tests following heating rates comparable with those the cladding would experience during a station blackout, the transition to higher oxidation kinetics occurs at approximately 1,500°C. A parametric study varying the low-temperature FeCrAl oxidation kinetics was conducted for a BWR plant using FeCrAl fuel cladding and channel boxes using the MELCOR code. A range of station blackout severe accident scenarios were simulated for a BWR/4 reactor with Mark I containment. Increasing the FeCrAl low-temperature oxidation rate constant (3 times and 10 times that of the rate constant for APMT) had a negligible impact on the early stages of the accident and minor impacts on the accident progression after the first relocation of the fuel. At temperatures below 1,500°C, increasing the rate constant for APMT by a factor of 10 still resulted in only minor FeCrAl oxidation. In general, the gains afforded by the FeCrAl enhanced ATF concept with respect to accident sequence timing and combustible gas generation are consistent with previous efforts. Compared with the traditional Zircaloy-based cladding and channel box system, the FeCrAl concept could provide a few extra hours of time for operators to take mitigating actions and/or for evacuations to take place. A coolable core geometry is retained longer, enhancing the ability to stabilize an accident. For example, a station blackout was simulated in which cooling water injection was lost 36 hours after shutdown. The timing to first fuel relocation was delayed by approximately 5 h for the FeCrAl ATF concept compared with that of the traditional Zircaloy-based cladding and channel box system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Research on Resilience of Power Systems Under Natural Disasters—A Review

Natural disasters can cause large blackouts. Research into natural disaster impacts on electric power systems is emerging to understand the causes of the blackouts, explore ways to prepare and harden the grid, and increase the resilience of the power grid under such events. At the same time, new technologies such as smart grid, micro grid, and wide area monitoring applications could increase situational awareness as well as enable faster restoration of the system. This paper aims to consolidate and review the progress of the research field towards methods and tools of forecasting natural disaster related power system disturbances, hardening and pre-storm operations, and restoration models. Challenges and future research opportunities are also presented in the paper.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Online Search Method for Representative Risky Fault Chains Based on Reinforcement Learning and Knowledge Transfer

In the analysis of cascading outages and blackouts in power systems, risky cascading fault chains should be accurately identified in order to do further block or alleviate blackouts. However, the huge computational burden makes online analysis difficult. In this paper, an online search method for representative risky fault chains based on reinforcement learning and knowledge transfer is proposed. This method aims at promoting efficiency by exploiting similarities of adjacent power flow snapshots in operations. After the “representative risky fault chain” is defined, a framework of tree search based on Markov Decision Process and Q-learning is constructed. The knowledge in past runs is accumulated offline and then applied online, with a mechanism of knowledge transition and extension. The proposed learning based approach is verified on an illustrative 39-bus system with different loading levels, and simulations are carried out on a realworld 1000-bus power grid in China to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Blackout↗

DOE OSTI2016

Modeling of a Passive Endothermic Reaction Cooling System

Passive reactor core cooling systems can mitigate the effects of station blackout conditions and avoid accidents similar to what occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors. Advanced nuclear reactor designs such as the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) and others include passive cooling systems. The AHWR utilizes water storage tanks that can remove decay heat for more than 50 days after station blackout. While these systems do not rely on electricity, they do rely on passive valves to function during an emergency situation. The purpose of the present work is to determine the feasibility of a passive endothermic reaction cooling system (PERCS). The PERCS relies on an endothermic reaction that does not proceed until it reaches a threshold temperature. Thus, a vessel filled with chemicals that undergo an endothermic reaction can be directly connected to the reactor core without any valves and only react once accident conditions raise the temperature past the threshold temperature. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A simulation of I 2 S-LWR selected transients

The Integral Inherently Safe (I 2 S-LWR) reactor was designed to improve the safety performance of PWR types reactors, and several design basis accidents were eliminated using innovative approaches to the I 2 S-LWR plant layout. However, some accidents such as station blackout (SBO), main steam line break (MSLB) type accident – the secondary hot leg break (SHLB) – were deemed statistically relevant, and the work performed here was to simulate these events using the system thermal–hydraulics code RELAP5 coupled to the 3D spatial kinetics code PARCS. The safety response of the reactor to a station blackout is predicted to be acceptable at both beginning of cycle (BOC) and end of cycle EOC core conditions with either the UO 2 or U 3 Si 2 fuel options considered here. In the analysis of the SHLB performed here, an unprotected (no SCRAM) condition was assumed to highlight the I 2 S-LWR capabilities. Results indicate that with the UO 2 core, the fuel temperatures rise notably, but no fuel melting was predicted and departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) limits were not exceeded. Similarly, the U 3 Si 2 fuel performed well, but with lower fuel temperatures and decreased DNBR. Following the break of the steam line in the I 2 S-LWR, shutdown is achieved after about two minutes via negative reactivity from loss of primary flow. In all cases considered, the I 2 S-LWR appears to accomplish the goals of increased safety performance. Further design improvements and other fuel options may marginally improve on the observed safety performance. Additionally, higher fidelity analysis with the next generation subchannel, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), or full core transport may be useful in refining the prediction of the peak fuel and cladding temperatures, as well limiting DNBR during the accidents.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Phenomena identification and categorization by the required level of multiphysics coupling in FHR modeling and simulation

Here, this study identifies the phenomena that impact the accuracy of the multiphysics analysis of fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactors (FHR) and categorizes the level of coupling needed to model these phenomena with sufficient accuracy in the context of three scenarios, namely, normal operation, station blackout, and simultaneous withdrawal of all control rods. Such a study is a necessary step prior to developing or extending existing multiphysics modeling and simulation tools. The identified multiphysics phenomena are categorized into the groups requiring ‘‘tight” and ‘‘loose” coupling. ‘‘Tight” coupling refers to phenomena that require iterative feedback between multiple physics modules/methods whereas ‘‘loose” coupling refers to phenomena that require only data from other physics that can be pre-calculated and shared in tabular or functional form. For the station blackout scenario, it was determined that no identified phenomena required tight coupling. For the rod withdrawal and normal operation scenarios, it is found that there is a large number of phenomena that require tight coupling between neutronics and thermal hydraulics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Equation-based object-oriented modeling and simulation of data center cooling systems

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed open source data center package in the Modelica Buildings library to support modeling and simulation of cooling and control systems of data centers. The data center package contains major thermal and control component models, such as Computer Room Air Handler, Computer Room Air Conditioner, models of different subsystem configurations such as chillers with differently configured waterside economizers, as well as templates for different systems. Two case studies based on this package are performed to investigate the performances of the cooling and electrical system under normal conditions and emergency situations such as a blackout: one is for a data center powered by conventional energy, and the other is for a data center powered by renewable energy. Simulation results show that the dynamic modeling and multi-domain simulation in the Modelica-based tool make it convenient for users to investigate both normal and emergent operations for conventional and renewable data centers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Distribution System Resilience From Utility Data: Large Event Risk and Benefits of Investments

We focus on blackouts in electric distribution systems that have a large cost to customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we show how to calculate risk metrics from the historical outage data routinely collected by utilities' outage management systems. Risk is defined using a customer cost exceedance curve. The exceedance curve has a heavy tail that implies large fluctuations in large blackout costs, and this makes estimating the mean large cost in the usual way impractical. To avoid this problem, we use new resilience metrics describing the large event risk; these metrics are the probability of a large cost event, the annual log cost resilience index, and the average of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost events or the slope magnitude of the tail on a log–log exceedance curve. Resilience can be improved by planned investments to upgrade system components or speed up restoration. The benefits that these investments would have had if they had been made in the past can be quantified by “rerunning history” with the effects of the investment included, and then recalculating the large event risk to find the improvement in resilience. An example using utility data shows a 2% reduction in the probability of a large cost event due to 10% wind hardening and 6%–7% reduction due to 10% faster restoration in two different areas of a distribution utility. This new data-driven approach to quantify resilience and resilience investments is realistic and much easier to apply than complicated approaches based on modeling all the phases of resilience. Moreover, an appeal to improvements to past lived experience may well be persuasive to customers and regulators in making the case for resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

An insurance perspective on U.S. electric grid disruption costs

Large yet infrequent disruptions of electrical power can impact tens of millions of people in a single event, triggering significant economic damages, portions of which are insured. Small and frequent events are also significant in the aggregate. This article explores the role that insurance claims data can play in better defining the broader economic impacts of grid disruptions in the U.S. context. We developed four case studies, using previously unpublished data for specific actual grid disruptions. The cases include the 1977 New York City blackout, the 2003 Northeast blackout, multi-year national annual lightning-related electrical damage and multi-year national line-disturbance events. Insured losses represent between 3 and 64 per cent of total loss costs across the case studies. Here, the household sector emerges as a larger locus of costs than indicated in previous studies, and short-lived events emerge as important sources of loss costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical noise in a free-space quantum communications link from natural and nuclear disturbed environments*

Satellite communications at radio frequencies can experience a ‘blackout’ period following the atmospheric detonation of a nuclear weapon. The wavelengths used for free-space quantum communications will not incur the same ‘blackout’ effects from a nuclear detonation, but the optical systems will suffer from a phenomenon called redout. Redout occurs in an optical detector when ambient light scatters into the optical receiver, causing elevated background photon counts in the detector such that background noise overwhelms the signal. In this work, the duration of the redout effect is quantified from a nuclear disturbed environment on a ground-to-space quantum optical link. In addition, we comment on various techniques for reducing ambient and nuclear disturbed background counts in a quantum free-space optical link. For low-altitude nuclear detonations (i.e., under 50 km), the maximum interference time will be less than 1 min. Implementing a telescope, timing gate, and wavelength filter to the detector can reduce the background counts in the detector significantly. Aerosol levels and ground albedo are major contributors to background noise in a ground-to-satellite quantum channel, and ground station location should factor in both variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗