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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: cosmological biases from supernova photometric classification

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of samples of photometrically identified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of ‘contamination’ from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis using the photometric classifier SuperNNova on state-of-the-art simulations of SN samples to determine cosmological biases due to such ‘non-Ia’ contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr SN sample. Depending on the non-Ia SN models used in the SuperNNova training and testing samples, contamination ranges from 0.8 to 3.5 per cent, with a classification efficiency of 97.7–99.5 per cent. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension BBC (‘BEAMS with Bias Correction’), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalized over contamination and corrected for selection effects, and use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, w. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian ΩM prior of 0.311 ± 0.010, we show that biases on w are <0.008 when using SuperNNova, with systematic uncertainties associated with contamination around 10 per cent of the statistical uncertainty on w for the DES-SN sample. An alternative approach of discarding contaminants using outlier rejection techniques (e.g. Chauvenet’s criterion) in place of SuperNNova leads to biases on w that are larger but still modest (0.015–0.03). Finally, we measure biases due to contamination on w0 and wa (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be <0.009 in w0 and <0.108 in wa, 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties for the DES-SN sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of machine-learning-enhanced Bayesian quantum state estimation

Machine learning (ML) has found broad applicability in quantum information science in topics as diverse as experimental design, state classification, and even studies on quantum foundations. Here, we experimentally realize an approach for defining custom prior distributions that are automatically tuned using ML for Bayesian quantum state estimation methods that generally better conform to the physical properties of the underlying system than standard fixed prior distributions. Previously, researchers have looked to Bayesian quantum state tomography for advantages like uncertainty quantification, the return of reliable estimates under any measurement condition, and minimal mean-squared error. However, practical challenges related to long computation times and conceptual issues concerning how to incorporate prior knowledge most suitably can overshadow these benefits. Using both simulated and experimental measurement results, we demonstrate that ML-defined prior distributions reduce net convergence times and provide a natural way to incorporate both implicit and explicit information directly into the prior distribution. These results constitute a promising path toward practical implementations of Bayesian quantum state tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

PMU-data-driven Event Classification in Power Transmission Grids

This paper presents an event classification in transmission grids. The convolutional neural network (CNN)-based classifier is proposed to capture the temporal similarity of time-synchronized data stream from phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed CNN is trained using Bayesian optimization to search for the best hyperparameters. The effectiveness of the proposed event classification is validated through the real-world dataset from the U.S. transmission grids. This dataset includes line outage, transformer outage, frequency, and oscillation events. The validation process also includes different PMU outputs, such as voltage magnitude, phase angle, current magnitude, frequency, and rate of change of frequency (ROCOF). The results show that ROCOF gives the best classification performance compared to other PMU outputs. In addition, it is shown that the classifier trained with a larger dataset has higher accuracy. Moreover, the superiority of the proposed method is validated through comparison with other state-of-the-art classification methods.

Niazazari, Iman↗
DOE OSTI2018

Implementing and evaluating a Gaussian mixture framework for identifying gene function from TnSeq data

The rapid acceleration of microbial genome sequencing increases opportunities to understand bacterial gene function. Unfortunately, only a small proportion of genes have been studied. Recently, TnSeq has been proposed as a cost-effective, highly reliable approach to predict gene functions as a response to changes in a cell’s fitness before-after genomic changes. However, major questions remain about how to best determine whether an observed quantitative change in fitness represents a meaningful change. To address the limitation, we develop a Gaussian mixture model framework for classifying gene function from TnSeq experiments. In order to implement the mixture model, we present the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a hierarchical Bayesian model sampled using Stan’s Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo sampler. We compare these implementations against the frequentist method used in current TnSeq literature. From simulations and real data produced by E.coli TnSeq experiments, we show that the Bayesian implementation of the Gaussian mixture framework provides the most consistent classification results.

Li, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2019

Scalable and efficient learning from crowds with Gaussian processes

Over the last few years, multiply-annotated data has become a very popular source of information. Online platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk have revolutionized the labelling process needed for any classification task, sharing the effort between a number of annotators (instead of the classical single expert). This crowdsourcing approach has introduced new challenging problems, such as handling disagreements on the annotated samples or combining the unknown expertise of the annotators. Probabilistic methods, such as Gaussian Processes (GP), have proven successful to model this new crowdsourcing scenario. However, GPs do not scale up well with the training set size, which makes them prohibitive for medium-to-large datasets (beyond 10K training instances). This constitutes a serious limitation for current real-world applications. In this work, we introduce two scalable and efficient GP-based crowdsourcing methods that allow for processing previously-prohibitive datasets. The first one is an efficient and fast approximation to GP with squared exponential (SE) kernel. The second allows for learning a more flexible kernel at the expense of a heavier training (but still scalable to large datasets). Since the latter is not a GP-SE approximation, it can be also considered as a whole new scalable and efficient crowdsourcing method, useful for any dataset size. Both methods use Fourier features and variational inference, can predict the class of new samples, and estimate the expertise of the involved annotators. A complete experimentation compares them with state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches in synthetic and real crowdsourcing datasets of different sizes. Finally, they stand out as the best performing approach for large scale problems. Moreover, the second method is competitive with the current state-of-the-art for small datasets.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-248: Contributions of Tumor and Stroma Phenotyping in Computer-Aided Diagnosis

Purpose: To gain insight into the role of parenchyma stroma in the characterization of breast tumors by incorporating computerized mammographic parenchyma assessment into breast CADx in the task of distinguishing between malignant and benign lesions. Methods: This study was performed on 182 biopsy-proven breast mass lesions, including 76 benign and 106 malignant lesions. For each full-field digital mammogram (FFDM) case, our quantitative imaging analysis was performed on both the tumor and a region-of-interest (ROI) from the normal contralateral breast. The lesion characterization includes automatic lesion segmentation and feature extraction. Radiographic texture analysis (RTA) was applied on the normal ROIs to assess the mammographic parenchymal patterns of these contralateral normal breasts. Classification performance of both individual computer extracted features and the output from a Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) were evaluated with a leave-one-lesion-out method using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with area under the curve (AUC) as the figure of merit. Results: Lesion characterization included computer-extracted phenotypes of spiculation, size, shape, and margin. For parenchymal pattern characterization, five texture features were selected, including power law beta, contrast, and edge gradient. Merging of these computer-selected features using BANN classifiers yielded AUC values of 0.79 (SE=0.03) and 0.67 (SE=0.04) in the task of distinguishing between malignant and benign lesions using only tumor phenotypes and texture features from the contralateral breasts, respectively. Incorporation of tumor phenotypes with parenchyma texture features into the BANN yielded improved classification performance with an AUC value of 0.83 (SE=0.03) in the task of differentiating malignant from benign lesions. Conclusion: Combining computerized tumor and parenchyma phenotyping was found to significantly improve breast cancer diagnostic accuracy highlighting the need to consider both tumor and stroma in decision making. Funding: University of Chicago Dean Bridge Fund, NCI U24-CA143848-05, P50-CA58223 Breast SPORE program, and Breast Cancer Research Foundation. COI: MLG is a stockholder in R2 technology/Hologic and receives royalties from Hologic, GE Medical Systems, MEDIAN Technologies, Riverain Medical, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba. MLG is a cofounder and stockholder in Quantitative Insights.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Networks

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such challenges culminate to lack of convergence to the parameter posterior. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a nonconverged Markov chain, generated via MCMC sampling from the parameter space of a neural network, can yield via Bayesian marginalization a valuable posterior predictive distribution of the output of the neural network. Further, classification examples based on multilayer perceptrons showcase highly accurate posterior predictive distributions. The postulate of limited scope for MCMC developments in BNNs is partially valid; an asymptotically exact parameter posterior seems less plausible, yet an accurate posterior predictive distribution is a tenable research avenue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian model selection for GRB 211211A through multiwavelength analyses

ABSTRACT Although GRB 211211A is one of the closest gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), its classification is challenging because of its partially inconclusive electromagnetic signatures. In this paper, we investigate four astrophysical scenarios as possible progenitors for GRB 211211A: a binary neutron star merger, a black hole–neutron star merger, a core-collapse supernova, and an r-process enriched core collapse of a rapidly rotating massive star (a collapsar). We perform a large set of Bayesian multiwavelength analyses based on different models describing these scenarios and priors to investigate which astrophysical scenarios and processes might be related to GRB 211211A. Our analysis supports previous studies in which the presence of an additional component, likely related to r-process nucleosynthesis, is required to explain the observed light curves of GRB 211211A, as it cannot be explained solely as a GRB afterglow. Fixing the distance to about $350~\rm Mpc$, namely the distance of the possible host galaxy SDSS J140910.47+275320.8, we find a statistical preference for a binary neutron star merger scenario.

(transients:) gamma-ray bursts↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved naive Bayesian probability classifier in predictions of nuclear mass

Recently, novel statistical methods such as neural networks and Bayesian learning methods are implemented to describe the nuclear masses. Based on previous studies, an improved naive Bayesian probability (iNBP) classifier is proposed to study the nuclear masses by refining the results of sophisticated nuclear models. In the iNBP method, the prediction for nuclear masses is treated as a classification problem. The residuals are classified into several groups to generate prior and conditional probabilities, and the posterior probabilities are further determined by the Bayesian formula. We choose the expectation with maximum probability as the final prediction. Reliability of the iNBP method is assessed by analyzing the global optimizations and the extrapolating capabilities. Here, the iNBP method exhibits impressive improvements on global descriptions for different mass models. Moreover, the method shows robust extrapolating capabilities. Results demonstrate the iNBP method can be applied to predict the nuclear masses of unknown regions. Considering the local mass relations, the iNBP method can offer considerable fine-tuning of the mass descriptions from nuclear models. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other model-based extrapolations of nuclear observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Annual Report on NCSP Technical Support task in BNL during FY25

This work reports on the investigations done during FY 25 in collaboration with one 2025 Summer undergraduate intern through the DOE SULI program. These efforts were partially funded by the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program through the Technical Support Succession Plan task. This project, developed by Matthew Molnar, aimed to apply the BNL’s machine-learning code to correct spin mis-assignments in neutron resonances, the Bayesian Resonance Reclassifier (BRR), to the odd-even nucleus 143 Nd. For this, the handling of spingroup classification had to be further investigated and improved.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transfer Learning for HVAC System Fault Detection

Faults in HVAC systems degrade thermal comfort and energy efficiency in buildings and have received significant attention from the research community, with data driven methods gaining in popularity. Yet the lack of labeled data, such as normal versus faulty operational status, has slowed the application of machine learning to HVAC systems. In addition, for any particular building, there may be an insufficient number of observed faults over a reasonable amount of time for training. To overcome these challenges, we present a transfer methodology for a novel Bayesian classifier designed to distinguish between normal operations and faulty operations. The key is to train this classifier on a building with a large amount of sensor and fault data (for example, via simulation or standard test data) then transfer the classifier to a new building using a small amount of normal operations data from the new building. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept for transferring a classifier between architecturally similar buildings in different climates and show few samples are required to maintain classification precision and recall.

transfer learning, Building HVAC, Bayesian framewo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Protein Conformational States—A First Principles Bayesian Method

Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naïve Bayes classifier from the machine learning community for use on atom-to-atom pairwise contacts. The result is an unsupervised learning algorithm that samples a ‘distribution’ over potential classification schemes. We apply the classifier to a series of test structures and one real protein, showing that it identifies the conformational transition with >95% accuracy in most cases. A nontrivial feature of our adaptation is a new connection to information entropy that allows us to vary the level of structural detail without spoiling the categorization. This is confirmed by comparing results as the number of atoms and time-samples are varied over 1.5 orders of magnitude. Further, the method’s derivation from Bayesian analysis on the set of inter-atomic contacts makes it easy to understand and extend to more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Measuring Dark Energy Properties with Photometrically Classified Pan-STARRS Supernovae. II. Cosmological Parameters

We use 1169 Pan-STARRS supernovae (SNe) and 195 low-z (z <0.1) SNe Ia to measure cosmological parameters. Though most Pan-STARRS SNe lack spectroscopic classifications, in a previous paper(I) we demonstrated that photometrically classified SNe can be used to infer unbiased cosmological parameters by using a Bayesian methodology that marginalizes over core-collapse (CC) SN contamination. Our sample contains nearly twice as many SNe as the largest previous SN Ia compilation.Combining SNe with Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) constraints from Planck, we measure the dark energy equation of state parameter w to be -0.989±0.057 (stat+sys). If w evolves with redshift as w(a) =w 0 +w a (1-α), we find w 0 =-0.912 ± 0.149 and w a = -0.513 ± 0.826. These results are consistent with cosmological parameters from the Joint Light-curve Analysis and the Pantheon sample.We try four different photometric classification priors for Pan-STARRS SNe and two alternate ways of modeling CC SN contamination, finding that no variant gives a w differing by more than 2% from the baseline measurement. The systematic uncertainty on w due to marginalizing over CC SN contamination, σ$^{CC}_{w}$=0.012, is the third-smallest source of systematic uncertainty in this work. We find limited(1.6σ) evidence for evolution of the SN color-luminosity relation with redshift, a possible systematic that could constitute a significant uncertainty in future high-z analyses. Our data provide one of the best current constraints on w, demonstrating that samples with~5% CC SN contamination can give competitive cosmological constraints when the contaminating distribution is marginalized over in a Bayesian framework

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Measuring the Properties of Dark Energy with Photometrically Classified Pan-STARRS Supernovae. I. Systematic Uncertainty from Core-collapse Supernova Contamination

The Pan-STARRS (PS1) Medium Deep Survey discovered over 5000 likely supernovae (SNe) but obtained spectral classifications for just 10% of its SN candidates. We measured spectroscopic host galaxy redshifts for 3147 of these likely SNe and estimate that ∼1000 are Type Ia SNe (SNe Ia) with light-curve quality sufficient for a cosmological analysis. We use these data with simulations to determine the impact of core-collapse SN (CC SN) contamination on measurements of the dark energy equation of state parameter, w. Using the method of Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS), distances to SNe Ia and the contaminating CC SN distribution are simultaneously determined. We test light-curve-based SN classification priors for BEAMS as well as a new classification method that relies upon host galaxy spectra and the association of SN type with host type. By testing several SN classification methods and CC SN parameterizations on large SN simulations, we estimate that CC SN contamination gives a systematic error on w (σ{sub w}{sup CC}) of 0.014, 29% of the statistical uncertainty. Our best method gives σ{sub w}{sup CC}=0.004, just 8% of the statistical uncertainty, but could be affected by incomplete knowledge of the CC SN distribution. This method determines the SALT2 color and shape coefficients, α and β, with ∼3% bias. However, we find that some variants require α and β to be fixed to known values for BEAMS to yield accurate measurements of w. Finally, the inferred abundance of bright CC SNe in our sample is greater than expected based on measured CC SN rates and luminosity functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A framework to evaluate machine learning crystal stability predictions

The rapid adoption of machine learning in various scientific domains calls for the development of best practices and community agreed-upon benchmarking tasks and metrics. We present Matbench Discovery as an example evaluation framework for machine learning energy models, here applied as pre-filters to first-principles computed data in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (1) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (2) retrospective and prospective benchmarking for materials discovery. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with adaptive user-defined weighting of various performance metrics allowing researchers to prioritize the metrics they value most. To answer the question of which machine learning methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release includes random forests, graph neural networks, one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials. We highlight a misalignment between commonly used regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics for materials discovery. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV per atom above the convex hull. The benchmark results demonstrate that universal interatomic potentials have advanced sufficiently to effectively and cheaply pre-screen thermodynamic stable hypothetical materials in future expansions of high-throughput materials databases.

Riebesell, Janosh↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing training trajectories in variational autoencoders via latent Bayesian optimization approach *

Unsupervised and semi-supervised ML methods such as variational autoencoders (VAE) have become widely adopted across multiple areas of physics, chemistry, and materials sciences due to their capability in disentangling representations and ability to find latent manifolds for classification and/or regression of complex experimental data. Like other ML problems, VAEs require hyperparameter tuning, e.g. balancing the Kullback–Leibler and reconstruction terms. However, the training process and resulting manifold topology and connectivity depend not only on hyperparameters, but also their evolution during training. Because of the inefficiency of exhaustive search in a high-dimensional hyperparameter space for the expensive-to-train models, here we have explored a latent Bayesian optimization (zBO) approach for the hyperparameter trajectory optimization for the unsupervised and semi-supervised ML and demonstrated for joint-VAE with rotational invariances. We have demonstrated an application of this method for finding joint discrete and continuous rotationally invariant representations for modified national institute of standards and technology database (MNIST) and experimental data of a plasmonic nanoparticles material system. The performance of the proposed approach has been discussed extensively, where it allows for any high dimensional hyperparameter trajectory optimization of other ML models.

42 ENGINEERING↗