Mass estimation in the breakups of Soviet satellites
An attempt is made to estimate the mass of the parent satellite from the mass of the debris remaining from its breakup using a technique based on the decay rate and radar cross-section time history. The decay of perigee and apogee with time of an object in orbit provides the area-to-mass ratio and the radar cross-section provides a measure of the effective area of the object, while combining the two gives the mass of the object. The technique has been successfully applied to 12 U.S. breakups and one Arianespace breakup. Calculations exhibiting good agreement with reference mass are also discussed for Soviet intact C-class boosters, intact ASAT target satellites, and intact navigational satellites. It is found that the calculated mass of the ASAT interceptor spacecraft is about one-half of the expected mass, but it is pointed out that this may be due to fuel carried on board. For ASAT target breakups the calculated mass is 20-30 times too low; no clear explanation can yet be found for this phenomenon.