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The case of missing CO-13 in mergers

We present a comparison of the CO-13 and CO-12 emissions of six systems of merging galaxies: NGC 828, NGC 3256, NGC 4194, NGC 6240, Arp 220, and Arp 299. The observations were made in both J=1-0 and J=2-1 transitions with the IRAM 30 m and SEST 15 m telescopes. In all galaxies but NGC 828, the CO-13 is much weaker than in spiral galaxies. The average emissivity ratios measured at the few kiloparsec scale are: CO-12(1-0)/CO-13(1-0) approx. equals 30, CO-12(2-1)/CO-13(2-1) approx. equals 40. These values are significantly larger than those usually measured in normal spiral galaxies, which are always between 5 and 15 for the J=1-0 line. We show that such a peculiar behavior cannot be interpreted as due to the dominant presence of diffuse gas and it cannot be attributed to optically thin CO emission either. The faint CO-13 emission of mergers must result from either an underabundance of CO-13 or an overabundance of CO-12. They may be accounted for by different mechanisms: CO-13 molecules are more easily photodissociated than CO-12 ones - however our observations seem to rule out physical conditions characteristic of photodissociation regions; in the course of the merging, large amounts of unprocessed gas, with a high (CO-12/CO-13) abundance ratio, are driven from the external regions of the progenitor galaxies to the new nucleus - this could increase the (CO-12/CO-13) ratio by a factor of 2; the interstellar medium can also be quickly enriched in C-12 (thus in CO-12) by a factor of 2, due to selective nucleosynthesis of this isotope (vs. C-13) in the massive stars born during the starburst. The last two processes can thus significantly contribute to the weakness of the CO-13 lines. The high CO-13-to-CO-12 line ratios that we have measured are due to the deep transformations that take place in the interstellar medium during the merging and the starburst: indeed, the only object with nearly normal line ratios, NGC 828, appears less perturbed and active in star formation than the other sources in the sample. In most mergers, the faintness of the CO-13 emission may indicate that the conversion factor from CO-12 emissivities to H2 column densities could differ substantially from the standard galactic value.

Casoli, Fabienne↗

The CME Flare Arcade and the Width of the CME in the Outer Corona

Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007, ApJ, 668, 1221) present evidence that (1) a CME is typically a magnetic bubble, a low-beta gplasmoid with legs h having roughly the 3D shape of a light bulb, and (2) in the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure equilibrium with the ambient magnetic field. They present three CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO, each from a very different source located near the limb. One of these CMEs came from a compact ejective eruption from a small part of a sunspot active region, another came from a large quiet-region filament eruption, and the third CME, an extremely large and fast one, was produced in tandem with an X20 flare arcade that was centered on a huge delta sunspot. Each of these CMEs had more or less the classic lightbulb silhouette and attained a constant heliocentric angular width in the outer corona. This indicates that the CME plasmoid attained lateral magnetic pressure balance with the ambient radial magnetic field in the outer corona. This lateral pressure balance, together with the standard scenario for CME production by the eruption of a sheared-core magnetic arcade, yields the following simple estimate of the strength B(sub Flare) of the magnetic field in the flare arcade produced together with the CME: B(sub Flare) 1.4(theta CME/theta Flare)sup 2 G, where theta (sub CME) is the heliocentric angular width of the CME plasmoid in the outer corona and theta (sub Flare) is the heliocentric angular width of the full-grown flare arcade. Conversely, theta (sub CME) approximately equal to (R(sub Sun)sup -1(phi(sub Flare)/1.4)sup 1/2 radians, where Flare is the magnetic flux covered by the full-grown flare arcade. In addition to presenting the three CMEs of Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007) and their agreement with this relation between CME and Flare, we present a further empirical test of this relation. For CMEs that erupt from active regions, the co-produced flare arcade seldom if ever covers the entire active region: if AR is the total magnetic flux of the active region, Flare . AR, and we predict that CME. (R(sub Sun))sup -1(theta AR/1.4)sup 1/2 radians. For a random sample of 31 CMEs that erupted from active regions within 30 of the limb, for each CME we have measured CME from LASCO/C3 and have measured AR from a SOHO/MDI magnetogram of the source active region when it was within 30 of disk center. We find that each CME obeys the above predicted inequality, none having width greater than half of the upper bound given by theta(sub AR). Thus, an active region's magnetic flux content, together with its location on the solar disk, largely determines whether the active region can possibly produce a CME that is wide enough to intercept the Earth.

Moore, Ron↗

Effect of inlet temperature on the performance of a catalytic reactor

A 12-cm-diameter by 15-cm-long catalytic reactor was tested with No. 2 diesel fuel in a combustion test rig at inlet temperatures of 700, 800, 900, and 1000 K. Other test conditions included pressures of 300,000 and 600,000 Pa, reference velocities of 10, 15, and 20 m/s, and adiabatic combustion temperatures in the range from 1100 to 1400 K. The combustion efficiency was calculated from measurements of carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbon emissions. Nitrogen oxide emissions and reactor pressure drop were also measured. At a reference velocity of 10 m/s, the CO and unburned hydrocarbons emissions and, therefore, the combustion efficiency were independent of inlet temperature. At an inlet temperature of 1000 K, they were independent of reference velocity. Nitrogen oxides emissions resulted from conversion of the small amount of fuel-bound nitrogen in the fuel. Up to 90% conversion was observed with no apparent effect of any of the test variables. For typical gas-turbine operating conditions, all three pollutants were below levels which would permit the most stringent proposed automotive emissions standards to be met.

Anderson, D. N.↗

Effect of inlet temperature on the performance of a catalytic reactor

A 12 cm diameter by 15 cm long catalytic reactor was tested with No. 2 diesel fuel in a combustion test rig at inlet temperatures of 700, 800, 900, and 1000 K. Other test conditions included pressures of 3 and 6 x 10 to the 5th power Pa, reference velocities of 10, 15, and 20 m/s, and adiabatic combustion temperatures in the range 1100 to 1400 K. The combustion efficiency was calculated from measurements of carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbon emissions. Nitrogen oxide emissions and reactor pressure drop were also measured. At a reference velocity of 10 m/s, the CO and unburned hydrocarbons emissions, and, therefore, the combustion efficiency, were independent of inlet temperature. At an inlet temperature of 1000 K, they were independent of reference velocity. Nitrogen oxides emissions resulted from conversion of the small amount (135 ppm) of fuel-bound nitrogen in the fuel. Up to 90 percent conversion was observed with no apparent effect of any of the test variables. For typical gas turbine operating conditions, all three pollutants were below levels which would permit the most stringent proposed automotive emissions standards to be met.

Anderson, D. N.↗

Correlation of S-Band Weather Radar Reflectivity and ACTS Propagation Data in Florida

Previous work has shown that Ka-band attenuation due to rainfall and corresponding S-band reflectivity are highly correlated. This paper reports on work whose goal is to determine the feasibility of estimation and, by extension, prediction of one parameter from the other using the Florida ACTS propagation terminal (APT) and the nearby WSR-88D S-band Doppler weather radar facility operated by the National Weather Service. This work is distinguished from previous efforts in this area by (1) the use of a single-polarized radar, preventing estimation of the drop size distribution (e.g., with dual polarization) and (2) the fact that the radar and APT sites are not co-located. Our approach consists of locating the radar volume elements along the satellite slant path and then, from measured reflectivity, estimating the specific attenuation for each associated path segment. The sum of these contributions yields an estimation of the millimeter-wave attenuation on the space-ground link. Seven days of data from both systems are analyzed using this procedure. The results indicate that definite correlation of S-band reflectivity and Ka-band attenuation exists even under the restriciton of this experiment. Based on these results, it appears possible to estimate Ka-band attenuation using widely available operational weather radar data. Conversely, it may be possible to augment current radar reflectivity data and coverage with low-cost attenuation or sky temperature data to improve the estimation of rain rates.

Wolfe, Eric E.↗

Interstellar Isomers: The Importance of Bonding Energy Differences

We present strong detections of methyl cyanide (CH3CN), vinyl cyanide (CH2CHCN), ethyl cyanide (CH3CH2CN) and cyanodiacetylene (HC4CN) molecules with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) toward the Sgr B2(N) molecular cloud. Attempts to detect the corresponding isocyanide isomers were only successful in the case of methyl isocyanide (CH3NC) for its J(sub K) = 1(sub 0) - 0(sub 0) transition, which is the first interstellar report of this line. To determine the spatial distribution of CH3NC, we used archival Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association (BIMA) array data for the J(sub K) = 1(sub 0) - 0(sub 0) transitions but no emission was detected. From ab initio calculations, the bonding energy difference between the cyanide and isocyanide molecules is greater than 8500 per centimeter (greater than 12,000 K). Thus, cyanides are the more stable isomers and would likely be formed more preferentially over their isocyanide counterparts. That we detect CH3NC emission with a single antenna (Gaussian beamsize(omega(sub B))=1723 arcsec(sup 2)) but not with an interferometer (omega(sub b)=192 arcsec(sup 2)), strongly suggests that CH3NC has a widespread spatial distribution toward the Sgr B2(N) region. Other investigators have shown that CH3CN is present both in the LMH hot core of Sgr B2(N) and in the surrounding medium, while we have shown that CH3NC appears to be deficient in the LMH hot core. Thus, largescale, non-thermal processes in the surrounding medium may account for the conversion of CH3CN to CH3NC while the LMH hot core, which is dominated by thermal processes, does not produce a significant amount of CH3NC. Ice analog experiments by other investigators have shown that radiation bombardment of CH3CN can produce CH3NC, thus supporting our observations. We conclude that isomers separated by such large bonding energy differences are distributed in different interstellar environments, making the evaluation of column density ratios between such isomers irrelevant unless it can be independently shown that these species are co-spatial.

Remijan, Anthony J.↗

Solar Powered CO.Sub.2 Conversion

Methods and devices for reducing CO.sub.2 to produce hydrocarbons are disclosed. A device comprises a photoanode capable of splitting H.sub.2O into electrons, protons, and oxygen; an electrochemical cell cathode comprising an electro-catalyst capable of reducing CO.sub.2; H.sub.2O in contact with the surface of the photoanode; CO.sub.2 in contact with the surface of the cathode; and a proton-conducting medium positioned between the photoanode and the cathode. Electrical charges associated with the protons and the electrons move from the photoanode to the cathode, driven in part by a chemical potential difference sufficient to drive the electrochemical reduction of CO.sub.2 at the cathode. A light beam is the sole source of energy used to drive chemical reactions. The photoanode can comprise TiO.sub.2 nanowires or nanotubes, and can also include WO.sub.3 nanowires or nanotubes, quantum dots of CdS or PbS, and Ag or Au nanostructures. The cathode can comprise a conductive gas diffusion layer with nanostructures of an electro-catalyst such as Cu or Co.

Chen, Bin↗

Correction to "Asian chemical Outflow to the Pacific in Spring: Origins, Pathways, and Budgets" by Isabelle Bey et al.

We analyze the Asian outflow of CO, ozone, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) to the Pacific in spring by using the GEOS-CHEM global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry and simulating the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West (PEM-West B) aircraft mission in February-March 1994. The GEOS-CHEM model uses assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). It reproduces relatively well the main features of tropospheric ozone, CO, and reactive nitrogen species observed in PEM-West B, including latitudinal and vertical gradients of the Asian pollution outflow over the western Pacific although simulated concentrations of CO tend to be too low (possibly because biogenic sources are underestimated). We use CO as a long-lived tracer to diagnose the processes contributing to the outflow. The highest concentrations in the outflow are in the boundary layer (0-2 km), but the strongest outflow fluxes are in the lower free troposphere (2-5 km) and reflect episodic lifting of pollution over central and eastern China ahead of eastward moving cold fronts. This frontal lifting, followed by westerly transport in the lower free troposphere, is the principal process responsible for export of both anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution from Asia. Anthropogenic emissions from Europe and biomass burning emissions from Africa make also major contributions to the Asian outflow over the western Pacific; European sources dominate in the lower troposphere north of 40 degrees N, while African sources are important in the upper troposphere at low latitudes. For the period of PEM-West B (February-March) we estimate that fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning make comparable contributions to the budgets of CO, ozone, and NO, in the Asian outflow. We find that 13% of NO, emitted in Asia is exported as NO, or PAN, a smaller fraction than for the United States because of higher aerosol concentrations that promote heterogeneous conversion of NOx to HNO3. Production and export of ozone from Asia in spring is much greater than from the United States because of the higher photochemical activity.

Bey, Isabelle↗

A new method for determining the CO to H2 conversion factor for translucent clouds

In this paper we describe a new technique for obtaining the conversion factor between the molecular hydrogen column density and the CO(J = 1-0) integrated antenna temperature. This factor, typically known as X(sub CO) is often to be of order a few times 10(exp 20)/sq cm/K km/s) for the molecular clouds in the Galaxy and is one of the primary means of determining the molecular cloud mass from CO observations. However, for the low-extinction interstellar clouds known as the translucent molecular clouds, estimates of X(sub CO) vary by up to a factor of 60 depending on the object and techniques employed to calibrate X(sub CO). Since the cloud mass is directly proportional to X(sub CO) uncertainties in mass estimates of translucent clouds can be more than an order of magnitude. We calibrate the H2 content in translucent clouds by using the linear relationship between the CH and H2 column densities. The CH column density is readily determined from observations of the CH ground-state hyperfine main-line transition at 3335 MHz. Using CH as a surrogate tracer for H2 and CO(J = 1-0) observations of a sample of translucent and dark molecular clouds, we find a wide variation in values for X(sub CO). For translucent clouds, X(sub CO) ranges from 0.3 to 6.8 x 10(exp 20) and for dark clouds the values range from 0.8 to 8.6. Although the average values for both types of cloud are similar to the canonical value determined for the Galactic molecular cloud ensemble (2-4 x 10(exp 20)), the scatter in individual X(sub CO) values may indicate that X(sub CO) for a given translucent cloud cannot be determined a priori and must be obtained for each cloud so that a reliable mass determination may be made.

Magnani, L.↗

Analysis of the Latitudinal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone in the Arctic Using the Large Number of Aircraft and Ozonesonde Observations in Early Summer 2008

The goals of the paper are to: (1) present tropospheric ozone (O3) climatologies in summer 2008 based on a large amount of measurements, during the International Polar Year when the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT) campaigns were conducted (2) investigate the processes that determine O3 concentrations in two different regions (Canada and Greenland) that were thoroughly studied using measurements from 3 aircraft and 7 ozonesonde stations. This paper provides an integrated analysis of these observations and the discussion of the latitudinal and vertical variability of tropospheric ozone north of 55oN during this period is performed using a regional model (WFR-Chem). Ozone, CO and potential vorticity (PV) distributions are extracted from the simulation at the measurement locations. The model is able to reproduce the O3 latitudinal and vertical variability but a negative O3 bias of 6-15 ppbv is found in the free troposphere over 4 km, especially over Canada. Ozone average concentrations are of the order of 65 ppbv at altitudes above 4 km both over Canada and Greenland, while they are less than 50 ppbv in the lower troposphere. The relative influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and of ozone production related to the local biomass burning (BB) emissions is discussed using differences between average values of O3, CO and PV for Southern and Northern Canada or Greenland and two vertical ranges in the troposphere: 0-4 km and 4-8 km. For Canada, the model CO distribution and the weak correlation ( 30) of O3 and PV suggests that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is not the major contribution to average tropospheric ozone at latitudes less than 70oN, due to the fact that local biomass burning (BB) emissions were significant during the 2008 summer period. Conversely over Greenland, significant STE is found according to the better O3 versus PV correlation ( 40) and the higher 75th PV percentile. A weak negative latitudinal summer ozone gradient -6 to -8 ppbv is found over Canada in the mid troposphere between 4 and 8 km. This is attributed to an efficient O3 photochemical production due to the BB emissions at latitudes less than 65oN, while STE contribution is more homogeneous in the latitude range 55oN to 70oN. A positive ozone latitudinal gradient of 12 ppbv is observed in the same altitude range over Greenland not because of an increasing latitudinal influence of STE, but because of different long range transport from multiple mid-latitude sources (North America, Europe and even Asia for latitudes higher than 77oN).

climatologies↗

Monolith catalysts for closed-cycle carbon dioxide lasers

The objective was to explore ways of making a monolithic form of catalyst for CO2 lasers. The approach chosen was to pelletize the catalyst material, Au/MnO2 powder, and epoxy the pellets to stainless steel sheets as structural supports. The CO oxidation reaction over Au/MnO2 powder was found to be first overall, and the reaction rate constant at room temperature was 4.4 +/- 0.3 cc/(g x sec). The activation energy was 5.7 kcal/mol. The BET surface area of the pellets was found to vary from 125 to 140 sq m/g between different batches of catalyst. Pellets epoxied to stainless steel strips showed no sign of fracture or dusting when subjected to thermal tests. Pellets can be dropped onto hard surfaces with chipping of edges but no breakage of the pellets. Mechanical strength tests performed on the pellets showed that the crush strength is roughly one-fourth of the pelletizing force. The apparent activity and activation energy over the pellets were found to be less than over the powdered form of the catalyst. The lower apparent activity and activation energy of the pellets are due to the fact that the internal surface area of a pellet is not exposed to the reactant concentration present in the flowing gas as a result of intrapellet diffusion resistance. Effectiveness factors varied from 0.44, for pellets having thickness of 2 mm and attached with epoxy to a stainless steel strip. The epoxy and the stainless steel strip were found to simply block off one of the circular faces of the pellets. The epoxy did not penetrate the pellets and block the active sites. The values of the effective diffusivities were estimated to be between 2.3 x 10(exp -3) and 4.9 x 10(exp -3) sq cm/s. With measurements performed on one powder sample and one pellet configuration, reasonable accurate predictions can be made of conversions that would be obtained with other pellet thickness and configurations.

Herz, Richard K.↗

Relating FTS Catalyst Properties to Performance

During the reporting period June 23, 2011 to August 31, 2013, CAER researchers carried out research in two areas of fundamental importance to the topic of cobalt-based Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis (FTS): promoters and stability. The first area was research into possible substitute promoters that might be used to replace the expensive promoters (e.g., Pt, Re, and Ru) that are commonly used. To that end, three separate investigations were carried out. Due to the strong support interaction of γ-Al2O3 with cobalt, metal promoters are commonly added to commercial FTS catalysts to facilitate the reduction of cobalt oxides and thereby boost active surface cobalt metal sites. To date, the metal promoters examined have been those up to and including Group 11. Because two Group 11 promoters (i.e., Ag and Au) were identified to exhibit positive impacts on conversion, selectivity, or both, research was undertaken to explore metals in Groups 12 - 14. The three metals selected for this purpose were Cd, In, and Sn. At a higher loading of 25%Co on alumina, 1% addition of Cd, In, or Sn was found to-on average-facilitate reduction by promoting a heterogeneous distribution of cobalt consisting of larger lesser interacting cobalt clusters and smaller strongly interacting cobalt species. The lesser interacting species were identified in TPR profiles, where a sharp low temperature peak occurred for the reduction of larger, weakly interacting, CoO species. In XANES, the Cd, In, and Sn promoters were found to exist as oxides, whereas typical promoters (e.g., Re, Ru, Pt) were previously determined to exist in an metallic state in atomic coordination with cobalt. The larger cobalt clusters significantly decreased the active site density relative to the unpromoted 25%Co/Al2O3 catalyst. Decreasing the cobalt loading to 15%Co eliminated the large non-interacting species. The TPR peak for reduction of strongly interacting CoO in the Cd promoted catalyst occurred at a measurably lower temperature than in the unpromoted catalyst. Nevertheless, the Co clusters remained slightly larger, on average, in comparison with the unpromoted 15%Co/Al2O3 reference catalyst. None of the promoted catalysts (i.e., with Cd, In, or Sn) exhibited surface Co0 site densities higher than that of the unpromoted catalyst. In activity testing, the activities were even much lower than what was expected from the H2-TPD results. Two possible explanations were proposed: (1) the promoters may be located on the surfaces of cobalt particles, blocking surface Co0 but being able to desorb hydrogen or (2) the promoters may facilitate Co oxidation during FTS, as previously observed by Huffman and coworkers when K was added to cobalt catalysts.

Zirconia↗

Compass Concurrent Engineering Lessons Learned in Remote and Hybrid Environments

The Compass Team at NASA’s Glenn Research Center (GRC) is a concurrent engineering team which specializes in conceptual spacecraft mission designs. Detailed descriptions of the team, its history, and its operating model can be found in [1] and [2]. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the team was required to move to remote (virtual) operation from their in-person model for approximately 22 months. As the restrictions began to lift and team members were able to return in-person to the Compass Lab, the team moved into a hybrid mode of operation, with some participants still tying in remotely some or all of the time. This paper discusses many of the lessons learned from these experiences, highlighting improvements, outstanding challenges and the tools and methodologies used to address both. Throughout this discussion the terms “in-person”, “hybrid”, “virtual” and “remote” will be used. For the purposes of this paper, “in-person” will be understood to mean when team members are interacting simultaneously, physically within the Compass Lab. “Remote” or “virtual” will refer to when interactions are happening between people who are not co-located using only technology to interface. “Hybrid” will refer to when two or more participants are physically located in the Compass Lab and one or more participant(s) is participating remotely. Media richness is described as “a medium’s ability to communicate effectively based of four factors. They are the capacity for immediate feedback, the number of cues and channels it utilizes, the degree of personalization it affords, and its ability to communicate using natural language” [3]. This theory will be referenced and discussed in multiple of the following sections due to its relevance when choosing how to operate in remote and hybrid modes, as well as in making tool selections. The key to selecting the best mode of communication lays in how complicated the discussion is and the level of ambiguity involved. Not all conversations or interactions require media rich mediums. For example, providing information about which there is little to no ambiguity can easily be done in less rich methods - such as email. A conversation including high levels of ambiguity and/or complex information is better suited to a richer medium, such as in-person or a video call with shared screens.

Concurrent Engineering↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy of the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) Spacecraft Silicone Experiment

Under a microscope, atomic oxygen (AO) exposed silicone surfaces are crazed and seen as "islands" separated by numerous crack lines, much analogous to mud-tile cracks. This research characterized and compared the degree of AO degradation of silicones by analyzing optical microscope images of samples exposed to low Earth orbit (LEO) AO as part of the Spacecraft Silicone Experiment. The Spacecraft Silicone Experiment consisted of eight DC 93-500 silicone samples exposed to eight different AO fluence levels (ranged from 1.46 to 8.43 10(exp 21) atoms/sq cm) during two different Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) missions. Image analysis software was used to analyze images taken using a digital camera. To describe the morphological degradation of each AO exposed flight sample, three different parameters were selected and estimated: (1) average area of islands was determined and found to be in the 1000 to 3100 sq mm range; (2) total length of crack lines per unit area of the sample surface were determined and found to be in the range of 27 to 59 mm of crack length per sq mm of sample surface; and (3) the fraction of sample surface area that is occupied by crack lines was determined and found to be in the 25 to 56 percent range. In addition, average crack width can be estimated from crack length and crack area measurements and was calculated to be about 10 mm. Among the parameters studied, the fraction of sample surface area that is occupied by crack lines is believed to be most useful in characterizing the degree of silicone conversion to silicates by AO because its value steadily increases with increasing fluence over the entire fluence range. A series of SEM images from the eight samples exposed to different AO fluences suggest a complex sequence of surface stress due to surface shrinkage and crack formation, followed by re-distribution of stress and shrinking rate on the sample surface. Energy dispersive spectra (EDS) indicated that upon AO exposure, carbon content on the surface decreased relatively quickly at the beginning, to 32 percent of the pristine value for the least exposed sample in this set of experiments (1.46 10(exp 21) atoms/sq cm), but then decreased slowly, to 22 percent of the pristine value for the most exposed sample in this set of experiment (8.43 10(exp 21) atoms/sq cm). The oxygen content appears to increase at a slower rate. The least and most AO exposed samples were, respectively, 52 and 150 percent above the pristine values. The silicone samples with the greater AO exposure (7.75 10(exp 21) atoms/sq cm and higher) appear to have a surface layer which contains SiO2 with perhaps small amounts of unreacted silicone, CO and CO2 sealed inside.

Hung, Ching-cheh↗

On the Discovery of CO Nighttime Emissions on Titan by Cassini/VIMS: Derived Stratospheric Abundances and Geological Implications

We present a quantitative analysis of CO thermal emissions discovered on the nightside of Titan by Baines et al. [2005. The atmospheres of Saturn and Titan in the near-infrared: First results of Cassini/VIMS. Earth, Moon, and Planets, 96, 119-147] in Cassini/VIMS spectral imagery. We identify these emission features as the P and R branches of the 1-0 vibrational band of carbon monoxide (CO) near 4.65 microns. For CH3D, the prominent Q branch of the nu(2) fundamental band of CH3D near 4.55 microns is apparent. CO2 emissions from the strong nu(3) vibrational band are virtually absent, indicating a CO2 abundance several orders of magnitude less than CO, in agreement with previous investigations. Analysis of CO emission spectra obtained over a variety of altitudes on Titan's nightside limb indicates that the stratospheric abundance of CO is 32 +/- 15 ppm, and together with other recent determinations, suggests a vertical distribution of CO nearly constant at this value from the surface throughout the troposphere to at least the stratopause near 300 km altitude. The corresponding total atmospheric content of CO in Titan is similar to 2.9 +/- 1.5 x 10(exp 14) kg. Given the long lifetime of CO in the oxygen-poor Titan atmosphere (similar to 0.5-1.0 Gyr), we find a mean CO atmospheric production rate of 6 +/- 3 x 10(exp 5) kg yr(exp -1). Given the lack of primordial heavy noble gases observed by Huygens [Niemann et al., 2005. The abundances of constituents of Titan's atmosphere from the GCMS on the Huygens probe. Nature, 438, 779-784], the primary source of atmospheric CO is likely surface emissions. The implied CO/CH4 mixing ratio of near-surface material is 1.8 +/- 0.9 x 10(exp -4), based on an average methane surface emission rate over the past 0.5 Gyr of 1.3 x 10(exp -13) gm cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) as required to balance hydrocarbon haze production via methane photolysis [Wilson and Atreya, 2004. Current state of modeling the photochemistry of Titan's mutually dependent atmosphere and ionosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 109, E06002 Doi: 10.1029/2003JE002181]. This low CO/CH4 ratio is much lower than expected for the sub-nebular formation region of Titan and supports the hypothesis [e.g., Atreya et al., 2005. Methane on Titan: photochemical-meteorological-hydrogeochemical cycle. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 37, 735] that the conversion of primordial CO and other carbon-bearing materials into CH4-enriched clathrate-hydrates occurs within the deep interior of Titan via the release of hydrogen through the serpentinization process followed by Fischer-Tropsch catalysis. The time-averaged predicted emission rate of methane-rich surface materials is approximately 0.02 km(exp 3) yr (exp -1), a value significantly lower than the rate of silicate lava production for the Earth and Venus, but nonetheless indicative of significant geological processes reshaping the surface of Titan.

carbon compounds↗

South Pole Lunar Lighting Studies for Driving Exploration on the Lunar Surface

NASA’s Artemis lunar missions will face new exploration challenges due to inherently low sun angles in the lunar south pole region. Whereas the Apollo missions were afforded sunlight for approximately 8 to 50-degrees above the horizon, sunlight for the next lunar missions will only be 1 to 2-degrees about the horizon. With this low angle, long shadows and high contrasts of light and dark areas will be faced by the crew and remote teleop operators while exploring the lunar surface. With this in mind, NASA developed an integrated virtual Lighting and Navigation Simulation to understand these challenges. Two studies have been conducted in this Lunar South Pole environment to evaluate the effects of natural and artificial lighting on driving and navigating a lunar rover across the surface. Early NASA studies, such as this, are used to aid in developing techniques and explore concepts of operations to promote mission success and crew safety. In the Phase One development evaluation, six astronauts were teleported to ten different lighting conditions. For each location, drivers were to drive to an imaginary target approximately 200-meters straight ahead and provide subjective feedback on their ability to drive under the given lighting conditions. Phase Two, a more operational study, four astronauts and a remote operator tested five different Artemis lunar mission scenarios. Results indicated sun direction at such low angles, especially when driving a high speed, can severely impact the crew’s ability to safely drive the rover. In the up-sun situation, with the sun directly in the driver’s eyes and compounded long shadows, the consistent preference among drivers was to initiate a tacking strategy of approximately +/- 20 to 30-degrees to improve visibility. This maneuver does require more time and rover energetics. Conversely, driving down-sun required the crew to tack as well to avoid the shadow of rover blocking the terrain. Less appreciated is how the surrounding landscape is lit. Traveling into shadowed areas, especially while facing a lit terrain beyond the shadowed area, drivers enter at their own risk due to pupil contraction making artificial lights useless. Additionally, the constant transitioning between dark and light areas are mentally taxing to the crew and natural navigational references such as the stars are invisible and therefore unusable. Slope and depth magnitude are very difficult hazards to judge when approaching a shadowed crater. This naturally leads to slower driving speeds than originally anticipated. As for observing scientifically interesting features, assessing them accurately varies greatly by the lighting condition. In most cases, the task can be completed, but the strategy is to use the sun to one’s advantage. Crew workload distribution in the cockpit for driving operations was split amongst crew. The driver primarily focused attention on visual terrain (80%) but referenced displays approximately 20% of the time, while the co-pilot/navigator generally provided directional cues to the driver. These natural lighting conditions present significant challenges for safe rover operations; however, early studies having given investigators a “first-look” into understanding of how operating on the South Lunar Pole can be accomplished.

LTv↗