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Cosmological neutrino mass: a frequentist overview in light of DESI

We derive constraints on the neutrino mass using a variety of recent cosmological datasets, including DESI BAO, the full-shape analysis of the DESI matter power spectrum and the one-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyman-α forest (P1D) from eBOSS quasars as well as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The constraints are obtained in the frequentist formalism by constructing profile likelihoods and applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription to compute confidence intervals. This method avoids potential prior and volume effects that may arise in a comparable Bayesian analysis. Parabolic fits to the profiles allow one to distinguish changes in the upper limits from variations in the constraining power σ of the different data combinations. We find that all profiles in the ΛCDM model are cut off by the ∑m ν ≥ 0 bound, meaning that the corresponding parabolas reach their minimum in the unphysical sector. The most stringent 95% C.L. upper limit is obtained by the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing at 53 meV, below the minimum of 59 meV set by the normal ordering. The corresponding constraining power σ is 43 meV, which highlights the importance of the cut-off by negative values in the determination of the upper limit. Extending ΛCDM to non-zero curvature and w 0 w a CDM relaxes the constraints past 59 meV again, but only w 0 w a CDM exhibits profiles with a minimum at a positive value. Additionally, we extend the formalism to constrain the lightest neutrino mass. For DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing, we find confidence limits at 20 and 19 meV for normal and inverted ordering, respectively. Using a combination of DESI DR1 full-shape, BBN and eBOSS Lyman-α P1D, we successfully constrain the neutrino mass independently of the CMB. This combination yields m l ≤ 97 and 98 meV in the normal and inverted orderings, and total neutrino mass ∑m ν ≤ 285 meV (95% C.L.). The addition of DESI full-shape or Lyman-α P1D to CMB and DESI BAO results in small but noticeable improvement of the constraining power of the data. Lyman-α free-streaming measurements especially improve the constraint. Since they are based on eBOSS data, this sets a promising precedent for upcoming DESI data.

Frequentist statistics↗

Multi-device analysis of energy loss duration and pellet penetration with implications for shattered pellet injection in ITER

A robust disruption mitigation system (DMS) requires accurate characterization of key disruption timescales, one of the most notable being the thermal quench (TQ). Recent modeling of shattered pellet injection (SPI) into ITER plasmas, using JOREK and INDEX, suggests long TQ durations (6–10 ms) and slow cold front propagation due to the large plasma size. If validated, these predictions would have an impact on the desired pellet parameters and mitigation strategies for the ITER DMS. To resolve these questions, a database of SPI experiments from several small-to-large sized devices (J-TEXT, KSTAR, AUG, DIII-D, and JET) has been compiled under the auspices of the International Tokamak Physics Activity MHD, disruptions, and control topical group. Analysis of the energy loss duration (proxy for the TQ duration) with machine size is presented for both mixed neon/deuterium (Ne/D) SPI and pure deuterium (D) SPI. Several metrics for the energy loss onset (e.g. soft x-ray signal drop, I p dip, and radiation flash) were considered as the conventional metric, electron cyclotron emission, is often cut-off during SPI. Several scalings with different onset metrics showed an increase in energy loss duration with machine size. The energy loss duration was additionally shown to be a function of the ratio between the number of SPI neon atoms injected and the stored energy. Analysis of the pellet shard position relative to the cold front found that in larger devices, pellets are typically found inboard of the q = 2 surface at the energy loss onset. Lastly, the delay between the pellet shards hitting the q = 2 surface and the energy loss onset was additionally found to increase with machine size. This suggests that the pellet shards in large devices will penetrate faster and further than the cooling front.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Viability of perturbative expansion for quantum field theories on neurons

Neural Network (NN) architectures that break statistical independence of parameters have been proposed as a new approach for simulating local quantum field theories (QFTs) [1]. In the infinite neuron number limit, single-layer NNs can exactly reproduce QFT results. This paper examines the viability of this architecture for perturbative calculations of local QFTs for finite neuron number N using scalar ϕ 4 theory in d Euclidean dimensions as an example. We find that the renormalized O(1/N ) corrections to two-and four-point correlators yield perturbative series which are sensitive to the UV cut-off and therefore have a weak convergence. We propose a modification to the architecture to improve this convergence and discuss constraints on the parameters of the theory and the scaling of N which allow us to extract accurate field theory results.

Sen, Srimoyee [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Un↗

Evaluation of Saccadic Component Measure on Smooth Pursuit Tests

ABSTRACT Introduction Despite the advancement of eye-tracking technology for smooth pursuit (SP) eye movement evaluation, qualitative observation offers much information that is not captured by computers; hence, both objective and qualitative information should be utilized to evaluate SP. This study examined the consistency among our clinicians when evaluating SP using normal (N), grossly normal (GN), mildly abnormal (MA), and abnormal (AB) as classifications. We then evaluated the effect of combining GN and MA into a single subclinical (SUBC) category. We also evaluated the computerized percent saccade (PS) metric by determining its sensitivity and specificity in classifying SP. Materials and Methods Retrospective horizontal and vertical SP test videos and numerical data for 70 participants were obtained from the Neuro Kinetics Neuro-Otologic Test Center and de-identified. From this, eye-tracking videos, time plots of eye-tracking positional data, and tables of SP eye-tracking performance data were generated for 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 Hz in both horizontal and vertical planes, totaling 6 tests per subject. Three clinicians rated each subject’s SP performance as N, GN, MA, or AB for a total of 6 ratings (3 frequencies, horizontal and vertical). This process was repeated using N, SUBC, and AB as rating categories. Clinicians also provided an overall SP rating for each plane as follows: AB if the results were abnormal for 2 or more frequencies tested. Alternatively, if fewer than 2 frequencies presented with a rating of AB, then an overall rating of MA, GN, or N was determined at the respective clinician’s discretion. Results When the 3 clinicians were tasked with classifying SP videos using 4 clinical categories, fair overall agreement was demonstrated. However, when MA and GN categories were combined into an SUBC category, the overall agreement for the 3 clinicians improved slightly for both horizontal SP (HSP) and vertical SP (VSP). This pattern of agreement did not differ considerably when comparing HSP versus VSP, and good consistency and reliability was observed across clinicians. Again, inter-rater consistency was smaller for VSP versus HSP despite the reduction in clinical categories. Cut-off values were generated for the PS metric and demonstrated good specificity and sensitivity when they were exceeded for 2 or more frequencies in a particular plane when evaluating a subject’s SP test. Conclusions

General & Internal Medicine↗

Constraining accuracy of the pairwise velocities in N -body simulations using scale-free models

We present a continuation of an analysis that aims to quantify resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 4096 3 ) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus. Here, we focus on radial pairwise velocities of the matter field, both by direct estimation and through the cumulative two-point correlation function (using the pair conservation equation). We find that convergence at the 1 per cent level of the mean relative pairwise velocity can be demonstrated over a range of scales, evolving from a few times the grid spacing at early times to slightly below this scale at late times. We show the analysis of two different box sizes as well as from averaging results from the smaller boxes, and compare the power of the two aforementioned estimators in constraining accuracy at each scale. Down to scales of the order of the smoothing parameter, convergence is obtained at ∼5 per cent precision, and shows a behaviour indicating asymptotic stable clustering. In conclusion, we also infer for LCDM simulations conservative estimates on the evolution of the lower cut-off to resolution (at 1 and 5 per cent precision) as a function of redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improved detection of low-frequency within-host variants from deep sequencing: A case study with human papillomavirus

Abstract High-coverage sequencing allows the study of variants occurring at low frequencies within samples, but is susceptible to false-positives caused by sequencing error. Ion Torrent has a very low single nucleotide variant (SNV) error rate and has been employed for the majority of human papillomavirus (HPV) whole genome sequences. However, benchmarking of intrahost SNVs (iSNVs) has been challenging, partly due to limitations imposed by the HPV life cycle. We address this problem by deep sequencing three replicates for each of 31 samples of HPV type 18 (HPV18). Errors, defined as iSNVs observed in only one of three replicates, are dominated by C→T (G→A) changes, independently of trinucleotide context. True iSNVs, defined as those observed in all three replicates, instead show a more diverse SNV type distribution, with particularly elevated C→T rates in CCG context (CCG→CTG; CGG→CAG) and C→A rates in ACG context (ACG→AAG; CGT→CTT). Characterization of true iSNVs allowed us to develop two methods for detecting true variants: (1) VCFgenie, a dynamic binomial filtering tool which uses each variant’s allele count and coverage instead of fixed frequency cut-offs; and (2) a machine learning binary classifier which trains eXtreme Gradient Boosting models on variant features such as quality and trinucleotide context. Each approach outperforms fixed-cut-off filtering of iSNVs, and performance is enhanced when both are used together. Our results provide improved methods for identifying true iSNVs in within-host applications across sequencing platforms, specifically using HPV18 as a case study.

Virology↗

Quantum simulations in effective model spaces: Hamiltonian-learning variational quantum eigensolver using digital quantum computers and application to the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model

Quantum simulations offer the potential to predict the structure and dynamics of nuclear many-body systems that are beyond the capabilities of classical computing. Generally, preparing the ground state of strongly-interacting many-body systems relevant to nuclear physics is however inefficient, even using ideal quantum computers. In addition, currently available NISQ-era quantum devices possess modest numbers of qubits, limiting the size of quantum many-body systems that can be simulated. In this context, a reformulation of the quantum many-body problems using truncated model spaces and Hamiltonians is desirable to make them more amenable to near-term quantum computers. The importance of symmetries in low-energy theories, including effective field theories (EFTs), lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD), and effective model spaces for nuclear systems, in particular their interplay with the reduction of active Hilbert spaces, is well known. Lesser known is the fact that the non-commutivity of some symmetries and truncations of the model space can be profitably combined with variational calculations to rearrange the entanglement into localized structures and enable more efficient simulations. Here, the goal of the present study is to explore and utilize the non-commutivity of symmetries and model-space truncations of quantum many-body systems important to nuclear physics, particularly in combination with variational algorithms for quantum simulations and effective Hamiltonian learning. We introduce an iterative hybrid classical-quantum algorithm, Hamiltonian learning variational quantum eigensolver (HL-VQE), that simultaneously optimizes an effective Hamiltonian, thereby rearranging entanglement into the effective model space, and the associated ground-state wavefunction. Quantum simulations, using classical computers and IBM's superconducting-qubit quantum computers, are performed to demonstrate the HL-VQE algorithm, in the context of the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick (LMG) model of interacting fermions, where the Hamiltonian transformation corresponds to an orbital rotation. We use a mapping where the number of qubits scales with the $\log$ of the size of the effective model space, rather than the particle number. HL-VQE is found to provide an exponential improvement in LMG-model calculations of the ground-state energy and wavefunction, compared to naive truncations without Hamiltonian learning, throughout a significant fraction of the Hilbert space. In the context of EFT, this corresponds to counterterms scaling exponentially with the cut-off as opposed to power law. Implementations on IBM's QExperience quantum computers and simulators for 1- and 2-qubit effective model spaces are shown to provide accurate and precise results, reproducing classical predictions. For a range of parameters defining the LMG model, the HL-VQE algorithm is found to have better scaling of quantum resources requirements than previously explored algorithms. In particular, the HL-VQE scales efficiently over a large fraction of the model space, in contrast to VQE alone. This work constitutes a step in the development of entanglement-driven quantum algorithms for descriptions of nuclear many-body systems. This, in part, leverages the potential of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. The exponential scaling of counterterms observed in this study suggests the possibility of more general applicability to other non-perturbative EFTs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Pair distribution function analysis of nano-object assemblies

The atomic pair distribution function (aPDF) analysis technique, also known as the total scattering method, which considers both Bragg and diffuse scattering, has been used extensively to probe local atomic arrangements in crystalline and disordered materials. In contrast, there have been limited applications of the PDF in self-assembled nanomaterials, which represent a class of materials built from nanoscale objects, such as nano-colloids, micelles and proteins. As distinguished from atoms, nano-objects have polydispersity in size and shape, and such form-factor effects complicate the application of PDF analysis to nano-systems. Here, in this paper, the application of the PDF is extended to spherical nano-object assemblies and the formulae for the nano-PDF (nPDF) are derived, showing some differences from the aPDF. By numerical simulations, the properties of the nPDF (peak broadening and pattern profile) are studied systematically as a function of structural features, such as nano-object parameters (size and size polydispersity) and assembly structural features (size, shape, structure type and lattice disorder), and of data processing parameters ( q cut-off and `missing' data in ultra-small-angle regions). The nPDF analysis method is found to provide an effective route to revealing not only nanoscale but also mesoscale structural properties, for example the morphology of a nano-assembly.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Emergence of quantum-field theory in causal diamonds

The experimental successes of quantum-field theory do not justify using it to describe even a finite fraction of the entanglement entropy of a causal diamond with its exterior, in the limit of large diamonds. Susskind and Uglum and Jacobson conjectured that this divergent entropy could be thought of as a renormalization of Newton’s constant in the Bekenstein–Hawking formula, if we applied that formula to arbitrary causal diamonds. Jacobson showed that this leads to a derivation of the null projection of Einstein’s equations as the hydrodynamic equations of the area law for arbitrary diamonds, a derivation which has the added virtue of demonstrating that the cosmological constant is not an energy density. Using a gauge choice adapted to causal diamond boundaries, we revisit arguments of Carlip and Solodukhin that the proper theory of near horizon states is a (cut-off) (1 + 1)-dimensional conformal field theory, with central charge proportional to the transverse area. This leads to a universal formula for fluctuations of the modular Hamiltonian of a diamond, which we argue is compatible with the explanation of the temperature of de Sitter space in terms of an identification between localized energy and the number of constrained q-bits of the holographic degrees of freedom.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Apparent fine tunings for field theories with broken space-time symmetries

We exhibit a class of effective field theories that have hierarchically small Wilson coefficients for operators that are not protected by symmetries but are not finely tuned. These theories possess bounded target spaces and vacua that break space-time symmetries. We give a physical interpretation of these theories as generalized solids with open boundary conditions. We show that these theories realize unusual RG flows where higher dimensional (seemingly irrelevant) operators become relevant even at weak coupling. Finally, we present an example of a field theory whose vacuum energy relaxes to a hierarchically small value compared to the UV cut-off.

Physics↗

Chemical and Cement Components 2021 Inventory Estimates for Additional Panels National Environmental Policy Act Analysis

This standard analysis report provides the estimates for the chemical (oxyanions and complexing agents) and cement components with a data collection cut-off date of December 31, 2021. These estimates will be included in a response to an inventory data request developed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) performance assessment (PA) for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis on additional panels for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Physical, Chemical, and Mineralogical Characterizations of MSWI Ash Product and Recommendations for Downstream Processing

The primary objectives of this project are to (1) systematically characterize MSWI ash, and (2) based on characterization findings, design preliminary flowsheets for downstream processing. To achieve these objectives, a total of ten tasks were completed, including sample collection, physical separation tests, liberation tests, synthetic MSWI ash preparation, elemental composition analysis, sequential chemical extraction, mineralogical characterization, pozzolanic activity characterization, thermal stability characterization, processing flowsheet design, TEA and T2M, and project performance reporting. Many useful findings and conclusions were obtained from the exhaustive efforts of this project from several different aspects, including: a) Valuable Metals in MSWI Ash: MSWI ash contains a diverse array of valuable metals. Based on potential recoverable values, the most valuable metals present in MSWI ash include Fe, Ti, Mn, Cu, Zn, V, Co, Ni, Sr, Sn, Ag, Mo, and Sc. Some of these metals have been identified as critical minerals by DOE and DOI, suggesting that MSWI is a promising feedstock for critical mineral recovery. Noticeable graphical and seasonable variations in the valuable metal content of MSWI ash were observed. Nevertheless, it was challenging to discern any clear, definitive patterns for conclusions from those observations. Compared with bottom ash, fly ash contains more volatile metals, such as Zn and Sn, but less nonvolatile metals, such as Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Co, and Ni. Mineralogical analyses showed that MSWI ash contains a substantial amount of calcium minerals, such as portlandite, lime, gypsum, and calcite. In addition, it was found that different types of valuable metals often exist in the same particles. b) Physical Separation of MSWI Ash: Both dry sieving and wet sieving were performed on MSWI ash. A notable disparity in the size distribution of the same material was observed when using the two different sieving methods. The disparity is due to the agglomeration of small particles. For the valuable metals investigated, no significant enrichment in a specific size fraction was observed, suggesting that it is challenging to preconcentrate the valuable metals through size fractionation. Due to the presence of ferromagnetic materials, such as Fe, most of the materials reported to the magnetic products obtained by dry magnetic separation. However, the enrichment effect is minimal due to the existence of particle agglomerates. Density separation at a cut-off density of 2.7 SG or higher led to noticeable enrichment of selected valuable metals, particularly Ti. The unburned carbon present in MSWI ash was effectively removed by flotation using diesel as the collector. A novel reagent scheme, Na2S plus cationic collectors, that can efficiently beneficiate nonferrous metals plus Co was developed. c) Liberation Tests: The particle size of MSWI ash was effectively reduced by grinding, and as a result, the encapsulated valuable metal particles (if any) were liberated to a certain degree. However, particle size reductions did not noticeably enhance the beneficiation performance using the physical separation methods, primarily due to the inefficiency of these methods in processing fine particles and/or a possibility that insufficient liberation is not a limiting factor for achieving satisfactory physical separation performance. Valuable metals were classified into water leachable, ion-exchangeable, acid soluble, reducible, oxidable, and insoluble forms. It was found that the distributions in the different categories, i.e., the occurrence modes of the valuable metals, were not affected by the particle size. d) Leaching Characteristics of Metals from MSWI Ash: Most of the valuable metals were extracted from the fly ash samples when using 1 M HCl or HNO3 as the lixiviant. The leaching reaction is a very fast process, which can reach equilibrium within the first 5 min. The releasing of Co, Ni and Ag are sensitive to leaching temperature, a higher recovery value could be obtained when using relatively higher leaching temperatures. The leachability of the valuable metals present in MSWI bottom ash is relatively lower than that of fly ash. Leaching recoveries increased with elevations in the acid concentration. Relatively high leaching recoveries were obtained for REEs, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn using 1 M HCl or HNO3 as the lixiviant. Elevations in the reaction temperature noticeably increased the leachability of the valuable metals, whereas the leachability was barely influenced by oxidizing and reducing agents. Similar to fly ash, leaching valuable metals from bottom ash is a rapid process, with most of the leaching reaction completed within the first 5 minutes. e) Combusted iPhones: The original structure of iPhones was remained after treating at 400 ºC and 600 ºC, while after being treated at 800℃, the screen bent, and the back cover of iPhone melted. Increasing the combustion temperature to 1000℃, the screen scattered, and most of the components turned into ashes. Combustion enhanced the leachability of REEs, while the leachability of the other valuable metals, except for Zn, was barely affected. Most of the REEs present in the original iPhones occurred as oxidizable forms. With elevations in the combustion temperature up to 600 ºC, the oxidizable REEs were transformed to acid soluble forms. However, further elevations in temperature resulted in decreases in the acid soluble fraction and corresponding increases in the reducible and oxidizable forms. Additionally, combustion temperature also significantly altered the occurrence modes of other metals present in the iPhones. f) Synthetic MSWI Ash: It was found that in the absence of hydrogen peroxide, all the elements except for Si were leached to certain degrees. It is noteworthy that approximately 80% of Zn was leached with 1.2 M HCl. When hydrogen peroxide was added to the reaction system, noticeable increases in the leaching recovery of Fe, Mn, Co, Ni, and Cu were observed. The leaching recovery of Al and Si was barely affected by adding hydrogen peroxide. These results suggested that the majority of Zn in the synthetic MSWI ash existed as metal oxide, a portion of Fe, Mn, Co, Ni, and Cu existed as metal oxide, and Al and Si are associated with glasses which are difficult to leach. Additionally, the remaining Fe, Mn, Co, Ni, and Cu in the metallic form were efficiently oxidized in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. g) Pozzolanic Activity and Thermal Stability of MSWI Ash: MSWI fly ash has higher pozzolanic activity compared to the bottom ash sample, which indicates that the fly ash sample consumed more portlandite because of its smaller particle size as reactivity fundamentally relates to reaction surface area. However, after the recovery of valuable elements, the pozzolanic activity of both the valuable elements fraction and the less valuable elements-rich products decreased significantly, which means that the valuable elements recovery lowers the Ca(OH)2 consumption, thus leading to the low activity of SCM. h) Flowsheet Design for Metal Recovery from MSWI Ash: Based on the results of the comprehensive physical separation and acid leaching tests, circuits that enable the beneficiation of the valuable metals were developed. In these circuits, the valuable metals are recovered into nonferrous, ferrous, and other valuable metal concentrates, which are processed separately in the acid leaching step. The subsequent separation and purification steps are simplified due to the physical beneficiation step. In addition, the overall recovery cost is reduced since physical beneficiation is much cheaper compared with chemical processing. Using different technologies, such as selective precipitation and solvent extraction, a comprehensive hydrometallurgical circuit was designed, and compounds of Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, and Ni with a purity close to or even higher than 95% were successfully generated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Task 12 PV Sustainability - Life Cycle Assessment of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Delamination with Hot Knife Technology

The objective of this study is to complete a life cycle assessment (LCA) of a novel technology that separates the crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) module front glass from the backsheet using hot knife technology. This is known to be the most challenging step in module recycling, where the choice of delamination approach can determine the process selection for the next steps of the recycling process, the economic value of the recovered materials, and environmental performance. The life cycle inventory (LCI) reported here is based on primary data from the technology manufacturer. Different LCIs are established following the cut-off approach and the end-of-life (EOL) approach. The environmental impacts of the hot knife delamination process are analysed based on six indicators, and the main contributors to delamination efforts are identified. For the EOL approach, the potential environmental benefits from the recovered materials are compared to the environmental impacts caused by the delamination process. The functional unit of this analysis is the delamination of 1 kg of used framed c-Si PV modules at the place of installation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Standard Analysis Report INV-SAR-79, Revision 0 Chemical and Cement Components 2023 Inventory Estimates

This standard analysis report provides the estimates for the chemical (oxyanions and complexing agents) and cement components with a data collection cut-off date of December 31, 2023. These estimates will be included in a Performance Assessment Inventory Report developed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) performance assessment (PA) for the 2026 Compliance Recertification Application (CRA).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Standard Analysis Report INV-SAR-81, Revision 0 Chemical and Cement Components 2023 Inventory Estimates for the Interim State Performance Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

This standard analysis report provides the estimates for the chemical (oxyanions and complexing agents) and cement components with a data collection cut-off date of December 31, 2023. These estimates will be included in a Performance Assessment Inventory Report developed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) interim state repository configuration performance assessment (PA) for the 2026 Compliance Recertification Application (CRA).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

From microbial diversity to functional potential using dimensionality reduction

The high dimensionality of microbial diversity data from ‘omics observations can be reduced using Machine Learning, with many recent studies showcasing ML utility for exploratory ecological feature finding and process prediction. Here, we compare the Self Organizing Map (SOM) dimensionality reduction method to the well-documented sample-based Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) and taxa-based Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) using near daily 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data from the 2019 to 2020 MOSAiC International Arctic Drift Expedition. We then map k-means clustering outputs from each method to available metagenomes, extracting functionally distinct seasonal microbial ecotypes in the surface Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate the SOM method better represented expected seasonal transitions and identified a greater number of metabolically distinct functional groups than the more traditional PCoA ordination. Ultimately, we identified four community ecotypes with distinct taxonomic and functional cut-offs driven by seasonality, water mass, and substrate turnover, highlighting the importance of succession in functional diversity for the central Arctic Ocean. These results reinforce ML dimensionality reduction as a meaningful translator in the mining of historical amplicon datasets to address modern mechanistic questions and potentially provide ’omics informed ecotype diversity to leverage in mechanistic biogeochemical models.

Arctic Ocean↗