Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Calving”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating ice-shelf extent using damage mechanics

Abstract Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models

Abstract The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process involved in the propagation of rifts across the Ronne Ice Shelf, near the region of Hemmen Ice Rise

We use radar interferometric images collected by ERS-1 and Radarsat-1 to observe the rupture tip of rifts along Hemmen Ice Rise on the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Interferograms generated in 1992 and 1997 allow us to observe the deformation of ice accumulated over respectively 9 and24 days. The results are an important step towards developing a better model of ice-shelf calving mechanism.

Hemmen Ice Rise Ronne Ice Shelf Antarctica calving↗
DOE OSTI2018

Combined Static and Dynamic Computed Tomography Angiography of Peripheral Artery Occlusive Disease: Comparison with Magnetic Resonance Angiography

PurposeTo compare in patients with known peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD), image quality of a combined CTA to a combined MRA protocol, including both static and dynamic acquisitions.Materials and MethodsTwenty-two patients with PAOD were examined with a combined CTA and MRA protocol consisting of static acquisitions (s-CTA, s-MRA) of the entire runoff and dynamic acquisitions (d-CTA, d-MRA) of the calves. Two radiologists compared image quality of the s-MRA versus s-CTA as well as d-MRA versus d-CTA. Image quality was assessed on a segmental basis using a 4-point Likert scale.ResultsFor s-CTA, 76% of segments were rated as excellent or good. For s-MRA, 50% of segments were rated as excellent or good (p < 0.0001). For d-CTA, median image quality score for all segments was rated as excellent for both readers. For d-MRA, median image quality for the different segments ranged from moderate to good. For both d-CTA and d-MRA, the median image quality scores were significantly higher for all segments of the lower limb compared with the static examinations of the lower limb segments (all p values < 0.0001). In patients with PAOD category 4–6, 80% of segments were rated as excellent or good for d-CTA, while 45% of segments were rated as poor or non-diagnostic for d-MRA.ConclusionIn patients with known PAOD, a combined static and dynamic CTA examination improves image quality relative to static and dynamic MRA and should be considered as an alternative to MRA, particularly in patients with advanced stage PAOD.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Chaos Theoretic Approach to Animal Activity Recognition

Animal activity is a descriptor that can be potentially used to track the health and well-being, which is obviously very important to improve the management process and productivity of farms. This paper deals with an animal behavior recognition problem using a chaos theory approach where we adopt such a technique for automatic classification of calves behavioral states. Two main mutually exclusive behaviors are of interest, namely, lying and standing/walking with six possible activities: feeding, drinking water, drinking milk, playing, rumination, and neutral. The time series generated by ear-tags with a 3D-accelerometer after a wavelet denoising transformation and frequency stabilization are treated as representations of the nonlinear dynamical system. The dynamical system of a certain animal state exhibits specific strange attractor in a phase space. A characterization of such an attractor is performed through metric, dynamic, and topological invariants including Lyapunov exponent, correlation dimension, length of a phase trajectory, sum of edges forming a convex hull and others. These measures are used as a feature vector for the subsequent classification. In a cross validation scheme, six classifiers are built on each training set, and the hyper-parameters are optimized using an inner validation set. The classifier that reaches the highest accuracy on the inner validation set is used to classify the outer validation set. It is shown that this approach can be useful at predicting activity states as an alternative methodology for the animal behavior state recognition problem with acceptable classification accuracy. Furthermore it is possible to include this procedure as part of an ensemble method in machine learning where a combination of different models is used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Rapid thinning of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in coastal Maine, USA, during late Heinrich Stadial 1

We report that few data are available to infer the thinning rate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) through the last deglaciation, despite its importance for constraining past ice sheet response to climate warming. We measured 31 cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages in samples collected on coastal mountainsides in Acadia National Park and from the slightly inland Pineo Ridge moraine complex, a ~100-km-long glaciomarine delta, to constrain the timing and rate of LIS thinning and subsequent retreat in coastal Maine. Samples collected along vertical transects in Acadia National Park have indistinguishable exposure ages over a 300 m range of elevation, suggesting that rapid, century-scale thinning occurred at 15.2 ± 0.7 ka, similar to the timing of abrupt thinning inferred from cosmogenic exposure ages at Mt. Katahdin in central Maine (Davis et al., 2015). This rapid ice sheet surface lowering, which likely occurred during the latter part of the cold Heinrich Stadial 1 event (19–14.6 ka), may have been due to enhanced ice-shelf melt and calving in the Gulf of Maine, perhaps related to regional oceanic warming associated with a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at this time. The ice margin subsequently stabilized at the Pineo Ridge moraine complex until 14.5 ± 0.7 ka, near the onset of Bølling Interstadial warming. Our 10 Be ages are substantially younger than marine radiocarbon constraints on LIS retreat in the coastal lowlands, suggesting that the deglacial marine reservoir effect in this area was ~1,200 14 C years, perhaps also related to the sluggish Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Stadial 1.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sarcocystis cruzi (Hasselmann, 1923) Wenyon, 1926: redescription, molecular characterization and deposition of life cycle stages specimens in the Smithsonian Museum

Currently, 7 named Sarcocystis species infect cattle: Sarcocystis hirsuta, S. cruzi, S. hominis, S. bovifelis, S. heydorni, S. bovini and S. rommeli; other, unnamed species also infect cattle. Of these parasites of cattle, a complete life cycle description is known only for S. cruzi, the most pathogenic species in cattle. The life cycle of S. cruzi was completed experimentally in 1982, before related parasite species were structurally characterized, and before the advent of molecular diagnostics; to our knowledge, no archived frozen tissues from the cattle employed in the original descriptions remain for DNA characterization. Here, we isolated DNA from a paraffin-embedded kidney of a calf experimentally infected with S. cruzi in 1980; we then sequenced portions of 18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, COX1 and Acetyl CoA genes and verified that each shares 99–100% similarity to other available isolates attributed to S. cruzi from naturally infected cattle. We also reevaluated histological sections of tissues of calves experimentally infected with S. cruzi in the original description, exploiting improvements in photographic technology to render clearer morphological detail. Finally, we reviewed all available studies of the life cycle of S. cruzi, noting that S. cruzi was transmitted between bison (Bison bison) and cattle (Bos taurus) and that the strain of parasite derived from bison appeared more pathogenic than the cattle strain. Based on these newfound molecular, morphological and physiological data, we thereby redescribed S. cruzi and deposited reference material in the Smithsonian Museum for posterity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melting

Abstract The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), ice‐shelf basal melting and iceberg calving, are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice‐shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a noneddying ocean) under preindustrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy‐induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice‐shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice‐shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step toward reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea‐level rise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Episodes of Early Pleistocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet Retreat Recorded by Iceberg Alley Sediments

Abstract Ice loss in the Southern Hemisphere has been greatest over the past 30 years in West Antarctica. The high sensitivity of this region to climate change has motivated geologists to examine marine sedimentary records for evidence of past episodes of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) instability. Sediments accumulating in the Scotia Sea are useful to examine for this purpose because they receive iceberg‐rafted debris (IBRD) sourced from the Pacific‐ and Atlantic‐facing sectors of West Antarctica. Here we report on the sedimentology and provenance of the oldest of three cm‐scale coarse‐grained layers recovered from this sea at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1538. These layers are preserved in opal‐rich sediments deposited ∼1.2 Ma during a relatively warm regional climate. Our microCT‐based analysis of the layer's in‐situ fabric confirms its ice‐rafted origin. We further infer that it is the product of an intense but short‐lived episode of IBRD deposition. Based on the petrography of its sand fraction and the Phanerozoic 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of hornblende and mica it contains, we conclude that the IBRD it contains was likely sourced from the Weddell Sea and/or Amundsen Sea embayment(s) of West Antarctica. We attribute the high concentrations of IBRD in these layers to “dirty” icebergs calved from the WAIS following its retreat inland from its modern grounding line. These layers also sit at the top of a ∼366‐m thick Pliocene and early Pleistocene sequence that is much more dropstone‐rich than its overlying sediments. We speculate this fact may reflect that WAIS mass‐balance was highly dynamic during the ∼41‐kyr (inter)glacial world.

Bailey, Ian↗
DOE OSTI2016

Genomic analysis of three Bifidobacterium species isolated from the calf gastrointestinal tract

Ruminant animals contribute significantly to the global value of agriculture and rely on a complex microbial community for efficient digestion. However, little is known of how this microbial-host relationship develops and is maintained. To begin to address this, we have determined the ability of three Bifidobacterium species isolated from the faeces of newborn calves to grow on carbohydrates typical of a newborn ruminant diet. Genome sequences have been determined for these bacteria with analysis of the genomes providing insights into the host association and identification of several genes that may mediate interactions with the ruminant gastrointestinal tract. The present study provides a starting point from which we can define the role of potential beneficial microbes in the nutrition of young ruminants and begin to influence the interactions between the microbiota and the host. The differences observed in genomic content hint at niche partitioning among the bifidobacterial species analysed and the different strategies they employ to successfully adapt to this habitat.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus-Associated Abortion and Vertical Transmission following Acute Infection in Cattle under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, including domestic and wild host species. During recent FMD outbreaks in India, spontaneous abortions were reported amongst FMD-affected and asymptomatic cows. The current study was an opportunistic investigation of these naturally occurring bovine abortions to assess causality of abortion and vertical transmission of FMDV from infected cows to fetuses. For this purpose, fetal tissue samples of eight abortuses (heart, liver, kidney, spleen, palatine tonsil, umbilical cord, soft palate, tongue, lungs, and submandibular lymph node) were collected and screened by various detection methods, including viral genome detection, virus isolation, and immunomicroscopy. Amongst these cases, gross pathological changes were observed in 3 abortuses. Gross pathological findings included blood-tinged peritoneal and pleural effusions and myocarditis. Hearts of infected calves had mild to moderate degeneration and necrosis of the myocardium with moderate infiltration by mixed inflammatory cells. Localization of FMDV antigen was demonstrated in lungs and soft palate by immunomicroscopy. FMDV serotype O viral genome was recovered from 7 of 8 cases. Infectious FMDV serotype O was rescued by chemical transfection of the total RNA extracted from three soft palate samples and was sequenced to confirm 100% identity of the VP1 (capsid) coding region with isolates collected from infected cattle during the acute phase of infection. Based upon these findings, it may be concluded that FMDV-associated abortion occurred among the infected pregnant cows included within this study and FMDV was subsequently transmitted vertically to fetuses. This is the first documentation of FMDV-associated abortions in cattle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Antimicrobial resistance and genomic characterization of Salmonella Dublin isolates in cattle from the United States

Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serotype Dublin is a host-adapted serotype in cattle, associated with enteritis and systemic disease. The primary clinical manifestation of Salmonella Dublin infection in cattle, especially calves, is respiratory disease. While rare in humans, it can cause severe illness, including bacteremia, with hospitalization and death. In the United States, S . Dublin has become one of the most multidrug-resistant serotypes. The objective of this study was to characterize S . Dublin isolates from sick cattle by analyzing phenotypic and genotypic antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profiles, the presence of plasmids, and phylogenetic relationships. S . Dublin isolates (n = 140) were selected from submissions to the NVSL for Salmonella serotyping (2014–2017) from 21 states. Isolates were tested for susceptibility against 14 class-representative antimicrobial drugs. Resistance profiles were determined using the ABRicate with Resfinder and NCBI databases, AMRFinder and PointFinder. Plasmids were detected using ABRicate with PlasmidFinder. Phylogeny was determined using vSNP. We found 98% of the isolates were resistant to more than 4 antimicrobials. Only 1 isolate was pan-susceptible and had no predicted AMR genes. All S . Dublin isolates were susceptible to azithromycin and meropenem. They showed 96% resistance to sulfonamides, 97% to tetracyclines, 95% to aminoglycosides and 85% to beta-lactams. The most common AMR genes were: sulf2 and tetA (98.6%), aph(6)-Id (97.9%), aph(3’’)-Ib, (97.1%), floR (94.3%), and blaCMY-2 (85.7%). All quinolone resistant isolates presented mutations in gyr A. Ten plasmid types were identified among all isolates with IncA/C2, IncX1, and IncFII(S) being the most frequent. The S . Dublin isolates show low genomic genetic diversity. This study provided antimicrobial susceptibility and genomic insight into S . Dublin clinical isolates from cattle in the U.S. Further sequence analysis integrating food and human origin S . Dublin isolates may provide valuable insight on increased virulence observed in humans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

High Resolution Model Development to Quantify the Impact of Icebergs on the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

In the present-day North Atlantic Ocean, relatively warm and salty water moves northwards from the tropics to the high latitudes, sinks, and returns southward towards the equator as North Atlantic Deep Water, forming the so called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been found that the stability of the AMOC is non-linearly related to the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic. In this way, additional fresh water can be added to the ocean with little impact, until a tipping point is reached that causes the AMOC to suddenly weaken and the Northern Hemisphere to abruptly cool. A great deal of uncertainty still remains over the sensitivity of the AMOC to changes in freshwater discharge as a result of the unrealistic manner in which freshwater has historically been added to climate models. Frequently, freshwater is discharged in ocean models entirely as liquid water, but in reality a large fraction of freshwater entering the ocean is ice calving from marine glaciers (half for Antarctica and two-thirds for Greenland). To more accurately quantify AMOC sensitivity to past and future changes in freshwater input, this project developed a comprehensive iceberg model to more realistically simulate the interaction between the cryosphere and the oceans at high-latitudes. The iceberg model created is written in Fortran90 and designed to scale efficiently on High Performance Computing (HPC) clusters so that tens-of-thousands of icebergs can be simulated at any time. Experiments performed with our model showed that in the Pleistocene there would have been enormous floods of freshwater released into the North Atlantic that would have transported icebergs and meltwater along the entire east coast of the United States, as far south as Florida Keys. In addition, high-resolution, modern-day, model simulations showed that if the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to melt at its current rate then there will be a 6-fold increase in the number of icebergs drifting in the North Atlantic in the next 30 years, and that the strength of the AMOC could weaken by 3.5%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd on Hanford for Calendar Years 2019-2024

Biologists first documented elk on the Hanford Site in 1972; since then, the elk herd known as the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd (RHEH) has grown substantially (PNNL-13331, Population Characteristics and Seasonal Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd: Status Report 2000). Through the 1990s, the core range of the RHEH was focused on the portion of the Hanford Reach National Monument known as the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve. More recently, larger numbers of elk have been occupying the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office (HFO), formerly the DOE, Richland Operations Office managed portion- of the Hanford Site, known as central Hanford (Figure 1-1). This began with bachelor groups of bulls occupying the site intermittently, and the herd has grown to resident herds, including bulls, cows, and calves. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) established a target herd size for the RHEH of less than 350 animals to minimize damages on adjacent private agricultural lands (Washington State Elk Herd Plan–Yakima Elk Herd [WDFW 2002]). Attempts to control the RHEH population through hunting on private lands and a relocation effort during 2000 have failed to limit growth of the population toward the WDFW target, and the herd exceeds 1,600 according to recent counts (PNNL-13331; DOE/RL- 2023-20, Hanford Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022). Although elk are present on central Hanford year-round, they continue to move between areas offsite, the ALE Reserve, and central Hanford throughout the year, and it is these movements that result in many of the elk-vehicle collisions (EVC) that occur along Hanford Site roads and on the Washington State highways bordering the site. In addition, changes in management strategies on the ALE Reserve, including recent and potential future tribal elk hunts, may alter herd behavior and result in additional animals transiting onto and off central Hanford.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Lack of Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus From Persistently Infected Cattle to Naïve Cattle Under Field Conditions in Vietnam

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), caused by FMD virus (FMDV; Aphthovirus, Picornaviridae), is a highly contagious and economically important disease of clovenhoofed domestic livestock and wildlife species worldwide. Subsequent to the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of FMDV-infected ruminants become persistently infected carriers, defined by detection of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples 28 days or more post-infection. The goal of this prospective study was to characterize the FMD carrier state in cattle subsequent to natural infection under typical husbandry practices in Vietnam. Ten persistently infected cattle on eight farms in the Long An province in southern Vietnam were monitored by monthly screening of serum and oropharyngeal fluid samples for 12 months. To assess transmission from FMDV carriers, 16 naïve cattle were intentionally brought into direct contact with the persistently infected animals for 6 months, and were monitored by clinical and laboratory methods. The restricted mean duration of the FMD carrier state was 27.7 months, and the rate of decrease of the proportion of carrier animals was 0.03 per month. There was no evidence of transmission to naïve animals throughout the study period. Additionally, there was no detection of FMDV infection or seroconversion in three calves born to carrier animals during the study. The force of infection for carrier-to-contact transmission was 0 per month, with upper 95% confidence limit of 0.064 per month. Phylogenetic analysis of viral protein 1 (VP1) coding sequences obtained from carriers indicated that all viruses recovered in this study belonged to the O/ME-SA/PanAsia lineage, and grouped phylogenetically with temporally and geographically related viruses. Analysis of within-host evolution of FMDV, based upon full-length open reading frame sequences recovered from consecutive samples from one animal, indicated that most of the nonsynonymous changes occurred in Lpro, VP2, and VP3 protein coding regions. This study suggests that the duration of FMDV persistent infection in cattle may be longer than previously recognized, but the risk of transmission is low. Additional novel insights are provided into within-host viral evolution under natural conditions in an endemic setting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1

Abstract. We describe and evaluate version 2.1 of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). CISM is a parallel, 3-D thermomechanical model, written mainly in Fortran, that solves equations for the momentum balance and the thickness and temperature evolution of ice sheets. CISM's velocity solver incorporates a hierarchy of Stokes flow approximations, including shallow-shelf, depth-integrated higher order, and 3-D higher order. CISM also includes a suite of test cases, links to third-party solver libraries, and parameterizations of physical processes such as basal sliding, iceberg calving, and sub-ice-shelf melting. The model has been verified for standard test problems, including the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for Higher-Order Models (ISMIP-HOM) experiments, and has participated in the initMIP-Greenland initialization experiment. In multimillennial simulations with modern climate forcing on a 4 km grid, CISM reaches a steady state that is broadly consistent with observed flow patterns of the Greenland ice sheet. CISM has been integrated into version 2.0 of the Community Earth System Model, where it is being used for Greenland simulations under past, present, and future climates. The code is open-source with extensive documentation and remains under active development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗