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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Flexible Geothermal Power Generation utilizing Geologic Thermal Energy Storage (Final Seedling Project Report)

This report concludes that there is a cost-effective strategy for seasonal storage of heat that will provide firm, but dispatchable, electrical generating capacity in times when other renewable energy is not available to meet demand. Deployment of the technology appears to require no new technology, but instead combines solar, geothermal, and conventional oil and gas drilling technologies in a novel way. The study basis is the use of sedimentary geologic formations as a medium for thermal energy storage (TES), specifically for heat collected in concentrating solar collectors. The study identifies methodologies that could be used to transport this heat into and out of the subsurface in order to produce dispatchable electrical power, and reports on initial optimization results. The GeoTES system (heat input, storage, heat recovery, and heat to electric conversion) described in this analysis has the potential to provide a unique pathway for increasing the grid penetration of renewable energy in large blocks of power and across many states and regions. Further, the system can be used both to meet the nation’s flexible energy needs while also improving grid stability and reliability. The present study evaluated the use of a large number of dedicated wells to store and recover the heat, essentially creating a synthetic geothermal reservoir. The use of sedimentary geology allows the wells to be drilled at low cost. Dedicated hot and cold wells are used, arranged in a five-spot well pattern with each hot or cold well surrounded at an appropriate distance by the opposite type of well. In large numbers this becomes alternating rows of hot and cold wells. Each hot and cold well is operated using a push-pull strategy. This configuration provides the ability to immediately recover stored hot fluid from a GeoTES reservoir, or to store the heat over many months for recovery at low loss when needed. This is a practical approach for managing the system’s fluid inventory and reducing parasitic load. The production and injection power requirements are reduced because the rows of wells operating in “push” mode provide help to the wells operating in “pull” mode, and vice-versa. Initial charging of a GeoTES system increases the heat recovery temperature. Increasing the duration of the charging period decreases the magnitude of the temperature fluctuations that occur following prolonged system operation. Because of direct contact of the heated water with the reservoir formation, the production of both hot water and steam from the TES, and the temperature ranges of the recovered fluid (190 – 230°C or 375 – 445°F), conventional geothermal power cycles were used to convert the stored heat to electricity. A power cycle configuration for the GeoTES system was selected following a screening study of a number of flash, and flash/binary hybrid options. This analysis concluded that, of the configurations evaluated, a dual-stage flash steam cycle provides the lowest capital costs per unit net power generation with an acceptable hot brine inlet fluid flow rate. The evaluation included the power plant cost estimate, the cost and number of wells and the associated parasitic loads. Annual power generation performance was simulated to evaluate capacity factor and LCOE. The LCOE calculated for the inherently high capacity GeoTES system was $\$$0.13/kWhe. This value was calculated for the case where the solar thermal collector was sized in such a way that the solar collectors permitted an annual power plant capacity factor of up to 97%. The power cycle was able to provide power to the grid every night of the year, and flexible base-load power during the winter, if needed. This LCOE value compares favorably with reported values for solar photovoltaic plus battery energy storage (PV+BES) systems in the open literature, i.e. $\$$0.148/kWhe for a PV+BES system with 4 hours of electrochemical battery energy storage capacity. Addition of battery energy storage with more hours of storage would further increase PV+BES system LCOE and increase the separation between GeoTES and PV+BES. A GeoTES system would therefore provide superior economics for high capacity and long duration solar energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Thermal energy storage and transport

The extraction of thermal energy from large LWR and coal fired plants for long distance transport to industrial and residential/commercial users is analyzed. Transport of thermal energy as high temperature water is shown to be considerably cheaper than transport as steam, hot oil, or molten salt over a wide temperature range. The delivered heat is competitive with user-generated heat from oil, coal, or electrode boilers at distances well over 50 km when the pipeline operates at high capacity factor. Results indicate that thermal energy storage makes meeting of even very low capacity factor heat demands economic and feasible and gives the utility flexibility to meet coincident electricity and heat demands effectively.

Hausz, W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utility-Scale Solar, 2022 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2022 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2021, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2022↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2023 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2022, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Potential for Hydropower Capacity at Non-powered Dams

In the last decade, retrofits of existing nonpowered dams (NPDs) have made up the largest share of capacity increases for US hydropower. Accurate estimates of potential capacity and generation at NPDs help identify sites that may be worth investing in detailed feasibility analyses and design exploration. This dataset contains estimates of technical potential capacity and generation at 2,616 NPDs in the conterminous US. This is based on a subset of dams that were found by earlier resource assessments to have at least 100kW of theoretical potential. Historical daily streamflow (modeled or from USGS gauge records) and hydraulic head (based on historical observations or primary purpose and dam height) are the main inputs to the HydroGenerate model, which determines design flow, turbine efficiencies, and assumed friction losses and then calculates nominal capacity, daily generation, and capacity factor. These estimates represent the conditions over the historical period of 1980-2015, and are summarized on a monthly basis (i.e., averaged for each month of the year) and overall (i.e., nominal capacity, average annual generation (MWh), and average annual capacity factor). A total of nearly 4 GW capacity is estimated across all 2,616 NPDs included in the dataset.

Hansen, Carly [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Maximizing Wave Energy Converter Power Extraction by Utilizing a Variable Negative Stiffness Magnetic Spring

Complex conjugate impedance matching is a key concept for wave energy converter design. Matching the impedance of the power take-off (PTO) system to the complex conjugate of the wave energy converter's (WEC) impedance ensures efficient transfer of energy from the WEC body motion to electrical power. In low frequency waves, impedance matching often requires a negative PTO stiffness. In this paper, an adjustable stiffness magnetic torsion spring will be presented and modeled to understand its potential to improve WEC performance. The spring has the ability to provide a negative stiffness, allowing the PTO impedance to more closely match the complex conjugate of the WEC impedance at low frequencies. The spring also supports an adjustable stiffness value, meaning it can be tuned according to the incoming wave conditions. The spring's tunability may put less stress on the rest of the PTO system in wave conditions outside its normal operation zone without sacrificing electrical power output. The adjustable magnetic spring's effects are modeled and explored in this paper by examining the resultant average annual electrical power and capacity factor. The study suggests that the tunable magnetic spring has the potential to significantly improve capacity factor while maintaining a high average electrical power.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2019

2018 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: ~Wind power capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2018. In 2018, wind energy contributed 6.5% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in three of those states—Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma. 232 gigawatts of wind are seeking transmission interconnection, 2% of which represents proposed wind plants paired with storage. ~Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers are on the horizon. The average 2018 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2017 was 42%, compared to an average of 31% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 24% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen to $700–$900/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2018 was $1,470/kW, down 40 percent since the peak in 2009 and 2010. ~Wind energy prices are at historical lows: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to below 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Solar PPA prices have declined precipitously, pressuring wind’s competitive position. ~The grid-system value of wind has declined over the last decade, but rebounded over the last two years. The value of wind in wholesale power markets is impacted by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind in 2018 was the lowest in the Southwest Power Pool and Texas (average of $17/MWh and $18/MWh, respectively) whereas the highest-value market was New England (at $41/MWh). Wind energy prices are generally competitive with these value estimates. ~The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (75-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the nacelle. Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 114,000 full-time workers at the end of 2018. ~Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 9,000-12,000 MW in 2019 and 11,000-15,000 in 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Electrolysis' Potential Value for Supporting the Electrical Grid

The H2@Scale concept includes a value proposition for electrolysis that benefits both hydrogen markets and the electricity system. Electrolysis has the potential to be an alternative low-cost hydrogen source by using low-price electricity that may be available for only a limited number of hours annually. It also has the potential to provide value to the grid through use of that low-cost electricity. By doing so, electrolysis can create a price floor which could support additional investment in low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) generation such as photovoltaic solar, wind, and nuclear. The rapid-response characteristics of low-temperature electrolysis enables it to also provide ancillary services to the grid such as operating reserves and frequency control. We evaluate the economic performance of water electrolysis in a selection of electricity markets - both current and potential future markets. To perform that evaluation, we collect locational marginal prices (LMPs) in each market, calculate levelized hydrogen costs, and compare them to cost estimates of producing hydrogen via steam methane reforming of natural gas. Those calculations also include electolyzer capital and operating costs. We perform the calculations across a range of capacity factors to identify the minimum levelized hydrogen cost in that range. We discuss the implications of that capacity factor for each market analyzed. For a couple of the analyzed electricity markets, we include the potential value of providing ancillary services in the calculation and discuss those impacts. LDE generation has been shown to suppress electricity prices because it generates electricity when the resource is available (i.e., the sun is shining, wind is blowing, nuclear heat is being produced) and the generation cannot be reduced without an economic penalty. Price suppression is likely to reduce investment in those technologies due to reductions in projected income of each marginal unit. If electrolyzers are willing to pay for the LDE, it could provide a price floor for electricity. We analyze how setting a price for LDE could impact the electricity generation fleet, the availability of LDE, and the potential levelized costs of producing hydrogen using that LDE. Among other results, we will present a set of supply curves showing potential production costs and availability for hydrogen produced from LDE in a future with high penetrations of renewable electricity on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

2017 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: -Wind power capacity additions continued at a rapid pace in 2017: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2017. In 2017, wind energy contributed 6.3% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in four of those states—Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. -Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers appear to be on the horizon. The average 2017 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2016 was 42%, compared to an average of 31.5% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 23.5% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. -Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen from their highs in 2008 to $750–$950/kW. Overall, the average installed cost of wind projects in 2017 was $1,610/kW, down $795/kW from the peak in 2009 and 2010. -Wind energy prices remain low: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to around 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country (such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas). These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 105,000 full-time workers at the end of 2017. For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (70-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the turbine. -Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 8,000 to 11,000 MW/year from 2018 to 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant-level performance and degradation of 31 GW DC of utility-scale PV in the United States

In this updated study, which samples 50% more capacity than the original and adds two additional years of operating history, we assess the performance of a fleet of 631 utility-scale PV plants totaling 31.0 GW DC (23.6 GW AC ) of capacity that achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007-2018 and that have operated for at least two full calendar years. We use detailed information on individual plant characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, to model expected or “ideal” capacity factors in each full calendar year of each plant’s operating history. A comparison of ideal versus actual first-year capacity factors finds that this fleet has modestly underperformed initial expectations (as modeled) on average, though perhaps due as much to modeling issues as to actual underperformance. We then analyze fleet-wide performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on plant performance. The resulting average fleet-wide degradation rate of -1.2%/year (±0.1%) represents a slight improvement (seemingly driven by the oldest plants in our sample) over the -1.3%/year (±0.2%) found in our original study, yet is still of greater magnitude than is commonly found. We emphasize, however, that these fleet-wide estimates reflect both recoverable and unrecoverable degradation across the entire plant, and so will naturally be of greater magnitude than module- or cell-level studies, and/or studies that focus only on unrecoverable degradation. Moreover, when focusing on a sub-sample of newer and larger plants with higher DC:AC ratios—i.e., plants that more-closely resemble what is being built today—we find a more moderate sample-wide average performance decline of -0.7%/year (±0.4%), which is more in line with other estimates from the recent literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Utility-Scale Solar Data Update (2020 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s 2020 update of utility-scale solar data and trends provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2019. Highlights of this year’s update include: More than 4.5 GWAC of utility-scale solar (i.e., ground-mounted solar projects larger than 5 MWAC) achieved commercial operations in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GWAC. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. The median installed cost of projects that came online in 2019 fell to $\$$1.4/WAC ($\$$1.2/WDC), down 20% from 2018 and down by more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. Average capacity factors range from 17% in the least-sunny regions to 30% where it is sunniest. Single-axis tracking adds roughly five percentage points to capacity factor in the regions with the strongest solar resource. Nationwide average levelized power purchase agreement (PPA) prices fell to $\$$24/MWh in 2019, down 17% from 2018 and more than 80% since 2010. Thirty-nine projects (totaling 4.2 GWAC) in our PPA price sample include battery storage (totaling 2.3 GWAC and 9.5 GWh). In the “lower 48” states, a number of these recent PV+battery PPAs have been inked in the mid-$\$$20/MWh range (levelized in 2019 dollars).Not including the 30% investment tax credit (ITC), the median levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from utility-scale PV has declined by 85% since 2010, to $\$$40/MWh in 2019. When the 30% ITC is included within the LCOE calculation, the median LCOE closely tracks the median PPA price over time. In higher-penetration markets like CAISO, the value of solar has been declining, but falling PPA prices have largely kept pace, preserving solar's net value. At the end of 2019, there were nearly 370 GW of solar in interconnection queues from all 7 ISOs and 30 additional utilities across the country. Nearly a third of this proposed solar capacity is paired with battery storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Study for a Carbon Capture Plant Retrofit to a Natural Gas-Fired Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Power Plant (2x2x1 Duct-Fired 758-MWe Facility with F Class Turbines)

A comprehensive front-end engineering design (FEED) study has been undertaken by Bechtel National Inc. (Bechtel) for locating a post-combustion capture and compression (PCC) unit at Panda’s Sherman natural gas–combined cycle (NGCC) power plant in Sherman, Texas. This is described in the unredacted FEED Study report (Attachment 1) with all supporting documents, numbering over 150. The Study Report is publicly available. Sizing of the PCC plant is based on treating an amount of flue gas equivalent to that produced when generating 420 MW, which is approximately 68% of the total flue gas emitted by the NGCC power plant operating at guarantee condition with duct burners off. A reduced power plant capacity factor was used for sizing the PCC plant because the gas turbines at the site often operate at reduced load due to the high penetration of renewable power in the ERCOT region. The cost of carbon capture is primarily driven by capital cost (and therefore is highly sensitive to capacity factor). Sizing the capture unit so that when used it is nearly always operating at full capacity is critical to the economic viability of the proposed investment.

03 NATURAL GAS↗