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Final Technical Report on Quantifying Dependability Attributes of Software Based Safety Critical Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

With the current transition from analog to digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, the number and variety of software-based systems have significantly increased. The sophisticated nature and increasing complexity of software raises trust in these systems as a significant challenge. The trust placed in a software system is typically termed software dependability. Software dependability analysis faces uncommon challenges since software systems’ characteristics differ from those of hardware systems. The lack of systematic science-based methods for quantifying the dependability attributes in software-based instrumentation as well as control systems in safety critical applications has proved itself to be a significant inhibitor to the expanded use of modern digital technology in the nuclear industry. Dependability refers to the ability of a system to deliver a service that can be trusted. Dependability is commonly considered as a general concept that encompasses different attributes, e.g., reliability, safety, security, availability and maintainability. Dependability research has progressed significantly over the last few decades. For example, various assessment models and/or design approaches have been proposed for software reliability, software availability and software maintainability. Advances have also been made to integrate multiple dependability attributes, e.g., integrating security with other dependability attributes, measuring availability and maintainability, modeling reliability and availability, quantifying reliability and security, exploring the dependencies between security and safety and developing integrated analysis models. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the dependencies between various dependability attributes as a whole and of how such dependencies are formed. To address the need for quantification and give a more objective basis to the review process -- therefore reducing regulatory uncertainty -- measures and methods are needed to assess dependability attributes early on, as well as throughout the life-cycle process of software development. In this research, extensive expert opinion elicitation is used to identify the measures and methods for assessing software dependability. Semi-structured questionnaires were designed to elicit expert knowledge. A new notation system, Causal Mechanism Graphing, was developed to extract and represent such knowledge. The Causal Mechanism Graphs were merged, thus, obtaining the consensus knowledge shared by the domain experts. In this report, we focus on how software contributes to dependability. However, software dependability is not discussed separately from the context of systems or socio-technical systems. Specifically, this report focuses on software dependability, reliability, safety, security, availability, and maintainability. Our research was conducted in the sequence of stages found below. Each stage is further examined in its corresponding chapter. Stage 1 (Chapter 2): Elicitation of causal maps describing the dependencies between dependability attributes. These causal maps were constructed using expert opinion elicitation. This chapter describes the expert opinion elicitation process, the questionnaire design, the causal map construction method and the causal maps obtained. Stage 2 (Chapter 3): Elicitation of the causal map describing the occurrence of the event of interest for each dependability attribute. The causal mechanisms for the “event of interest” were extracted for each of the software dependability attributes. The “event of interest” for a dependability attribute is generally considered to be the “attribute failure”, e.g. security failure. The extraction was based on the analysis of expert elicitation results obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 (Chapter 4): Identification of relevant measurements. Measures for the “events of interest” and their causal mechanisms were obtained from expert opinion elicitation for each of the software dependability attributes. The measures extracted are presented in this chapter. Stage 4 (Chapter 5): Assessment of the coverage of the causal maps via measures. Coverage was assessed to determine whether the measures obtained were sufficient to quantify software dependability, and what measures are further required. Stage 5 (Chapter 6): Identification of “missing” measures and measurement approaches for concepts not covered. New measures, for concepts that had not been covered sufficiently as determined in Stage 4, were identified using supplementary expert opinion elicitation as well as literature reviews. Stage 6 (Chapter 7): Building of a detailed quantification model based on the causal maps and measurements obtained. Ability to derive such a quantification model shows that the causal models and measurements derived from the previous stages (Stage 1 to Stage 5) can form the technical basis for developing dependability quantification models. Scope restrictions have led us to prioritize this demonstration effort. The demonstration was focused on a critical system, i.e. the reactor protection system. For this system, a ranking of the software dependability attributes by nuclear stakeholders was developed. As expected for this application, the stakeholder ranking identified safety as the most critical attribute to be quantified. A safety quantification model limited to the requirements phase of development was built. Two case studies were conducted for verification. A preliminary control gate for software safety for the requirements stage was proposed and applied to the first case study. The control gate allows a cost effective selection of the duration of the requirements phase.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Performance Year 1 Technical Report - OPEN COG Grid: Extendable Coherent Models-Datasets for Cognitive Power Grids

The OPEN COG Grid project is a collaborative effort between LLNL, NREL, and Texas A&M University (TAMU) to develop synthetic power system datasets that (i) contain all technical information that would be available in a real system, allowing to conduct studies ranging from dynamic simulation to long term planning studies; ii) are accessible to researchers from the broader data sciences community, as oppossed to power system experts only; and (iii) This report summarizes the work conducted during the first 15 months of execution of the project. These activities encompassed: 1. Conduct a survey of existing open data sets and open source power systems simulators, their supported use cases, and accessibility (Chapter 1). 2. Define a new extensible specification for power system data, covering all parameters necessary for most computational use cases (Chapter 2). 3. Collecting real technical system data to complete missing parameters in existing open source datasets (Chapter 3). 4. Develop models that capture the behavior of emergent actors in power grids, neglected by existing datasets; aggregated residential demand response (Chapter 4) and demand response of cryptocurrency miners (Chapter 5). 5. Collect detailed spatial information on distributed energy resources, particular, solar photovoltaic facilities (Chapter 6). The following chapters provide detailed descriptions of these tasks, the assumptions taken, and their findings. In conducting these tasks, the project team produced: two (accepted) conference papers; one journal paper under submission; one draft journal paper pending submission; released one repository with the developed power system data specification, with documentation and examples; and one extended dataset for the Texas power grid under review for release. The team hopes these contributions will enhance access to power system data and remove barriers to the development of new computational techniques for power systems, particularly, those inspired by cognitive sciences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Space Biology and Medicine: Space and Its Exploration - Volume I

Perhaps one of the greatest gifts that has been given to the people of the world in the last few hundred years has been an emerging sense of the place of our planet and its inhabitants within the context of the vast universe. Our knowledge of the rest of the universe has not come quickly, nor was the process of attaining it only recently begun; however, the unprecedented acceleration of that process has benefitted from a fundamental new aspect of our species that has only manifested itself in the last 30 years or so, the ability to travel in space. Before the space age, the Universe was studied only through observations from the Earth. All that has changed with the beginning of the space age. Machines built by humans have flown to all but one of the nine planets that revolve around our Sun, have ventured billions of miles from the Earth and looked back, and have landed on three other worlds. Spacecraft in orbit around the Earth have viewed the sky at a vast number of electromagnetic wavelengths, detecting the shape of the galaxy and the universe, and even measuring the remnants of the universe's beginning. Human explorers have ventured forth, first for short stays in orbit, then, later, walking upon the Moon and living for long periods in space. As they did so, billions of people on the Earth came to view the Earth in a fundamentally different way, not just as the familiar day to- day backdrop for their lives, but as a small oasis suspended in the night sky above an alien landscape. It is this new view of the Earth that is the true gift of space exploration. Space exploration has at once given us a new perspective on the value of our world, and a new perspective from which to understand how it operates. It has shown us that the Earth is by far the most precious place in the solar system in terms of supporting human life, while revealing that other destinations may still be compelling. The exploration of space has at once become a challenge for humanity to overcome and a path to our common future. But for humanity to embark on this path, we need to understand ourselves in a new environment. As such, an understanding of the biological consequences of and opportunities in space flight is essential. In this, the first volume of a joint U.S./Russian series on space biology and medicine, we describe the current status of our understanding of space and present general information that will prove useful when reading subsequent volumes. Since we are witnesses to the beginning of a new era of interplanetary travel, a significant portion of the first volume will concentrate on the physical and ecological conditions that exist in near and outer space, as well as heavenly bodies from the smallest ones to the giant planets and stars. While space exploration is a comparatively recent endeavor, its foundations were laid much more than 30 years ago, and its history has been an eventful one. In the first part of this volume, Rauschenbach, Sokolskiy, and Gurjian address the "Historical Aspects of Space Exploration" from its beginnings to a present-day view of the events of the space age. The nature of space itself and its features is the focus of the second section of the volume. In the first chapter of the part, "Stars and Interstellar Space," the origin and evolution of stars, and the nature of the portions of space most distant from Earth are described by Galeev and Marochnik. In Chapter 2, Pisarenko, Logachev, and Kurt in "The Sun and Interplanetary Space" bring us to the vicinity of our own solar system and provide a description and discussion of the nearest star and its influence on the space environment that our Earth and the other planets inhabit. In our solar system there are many fascinating objects, remnants of the formation of a rather ordinary star in a rather obscure portion of the galaxy. Historical accident has caused us to be much more curious (and knowledgeable) about "The Inner Planets of the Solar System" than about any of these other objects. In Chapter 3, Marov describes the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, their history and origin, and their environmental conditions, and in Chapter 4 Owen provides similar information about Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, "The Outer Planets of the Solar System." Morrison provides a thorough discussion of "Asteroids, Comets, and Other Small Bodies" in Chapter 5. The understanding of these relics of the formation of the solar system may form the center of our ability to understand the origin of solar systems in general, and of the critical role that the beginning of the solar system had on the prospects for the origin of life and its continued survival and evolution in the face of their recurrent impacts on Earth. In Chapter 6, the first chapter of the third part, Rummel describes the area of "Exobiology," the study of the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the context of the origin and evolution of the universe. The same processes that have given rise to life on Earth may have given rise to life elsewhere. In Chapter 7, the "Earth and the Biosphere," the nature and function of the Earth are discussed as a specific instance of planetary and biological evolution. The effects of biological processes on the Earth under the influence of human activities are also addressed by Moore and Bartlett in Chapter 7. The final chapter in this section concerns the prospects that life in the universe may be widespread; "SETI," the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Billingham and Tarter, presents the arguments for conducting a search for evidence of life elsewhere in the galaxy, and describes the various methods proposed for conducting such a search. While SETI has a distinctly exploration al character, more direct means are available for exploring the solar system around us. The fourth part of the volume addresses this subject of space exploration. Considering the prospects for research on space biology and medicine, the means of providing "Access to Space" are described by Feoktistov and Briggs in Chapter 9. This chapter addresses carriers and launch systems, the unmanned and manned spacecraft that they loft into space, and the task of mission operations by which these precious vessels are monitored, navigated, and controlled. Despite the successes of the past and the capabilities of the present, it is clear that the study of space biology and medicine will be even more rewarding in the future than it has been to date. The work of the next few years that will be undertaken by the U.S. and Russia, both independently and jointly, will focus first on enabling greater capabilities in the exploration of space, and then on using the unique characteristics of the space environment to provide insight and greater understanding into biological systems, their behavior, development, and origin. The chapters of the first volume were written by leaders in their fields from the U.S. and Russia. The material presented summarizes our current understanding of space and its exploration. We understand that the first volume will be of interest not only to medical personnel and biologists, but also to general readers who want information about space beyond their own particular fields of expertise.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗

Propagation effects handbook for satellite systems design. A summary of propagation impairments on 10 to 100 GHz satellite links with techniques for system design

This Propagation Handbook provides satellite system engineers with a concise summary of the major propagation effects experienced on Earth-space paths in the 10 to 100 GHz frequency range. The dominant effect, attenuation due to rain, is dealt with in some detail, in terms of both experimental data from measurements made in the U.S. and Canada, and the mathematical and conceptual models devised to explain the data. In order to make the Handbook readily usable to many engineers, it has been arranged in two parts. Chapters 2-5 comprise the descriptive part. They deal in some detail with rain systems, rain and attenuation models, depolarization and experimental data. Chapters 6 and 7 make up the design part of the Handbook and may be used almost independently of the earlier chapters. In Chapter 6, the design techniques recommended for predicting propagation effects in Earth-space communications systems are presented. Chapter 7 addresses the questions of where in the system design process the effects of propagation should be considered, and what precautions should be taken when applying the propagation results.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

LHC Forward Physics

The goal of this report is to give a comprehensive overview of the rich field of forward physics, with a special attention to the topics that can be studied at the LHC. The report starts presenting a selection of the Monte Carlo simulation tools currently available, chapter 2, then enters the rich phenomenology of QCD at low, chapter 3, and high, chapter 4, momentum transfer, while the unique scattering conditions of central exclusive production are analyzed in chapter 5. The last two experimental topics, Cosmic Ray and Heavy Ion physics are presented in the chapter 6 and 7 respectively. Chapter 8 is dedicated to the BFKL dynamics, multiparton interactions, and saturation. The report ends with an overview of the forward detectors at LHC. Each chapter is correlated with a comprehensive bibliography, attempting to provide to the interested reader with a wide opportunity for further studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 30

The Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 30 is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program. Designed for use as a desk-top reference, the Data Book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity, and presents data on other factors that influence transportation energy use. The purpose of this document is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. The latest edition of the Data Book is available to a larger audience via the Internet (cta.ornl.gov/data). This edition of the Data Book has 12 chapters which focus on various aspects of the transportation industry. Chapter 1 focuses on petroleum; Chapter 2 energy; Chapter 3 highway vehicles; Chapter 4 light vehicles; Chapter 5 heavy vehicles; Chapter 6 alternative fuel vehicles; Chapter 7 fleet vehicles; Chapter 8 household vehicles; Chapter 9 nonhighway modes; Chapter 10 transportation and the economy; Chapter 11 greenhouse gas emissions; and Chapter 12 criteria pollutant emissions. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also three appendices which include detailed source information for some tables, measures of conversion, and the definition of Census divisions and regions. A glossary of terms and a title index are also included for the reader s convenience.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 31

The Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 31 is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program. Designed for use as a desk-top reference, the Data Book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity, and presents data on other factors that influence transportation energy use. The purpose of this document is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. The latest edition of the Data Book is available to a larger audience via the Internet (cta.ornl.gov/data). This edition of the Data Book has 12 chapters which focus on various aspects of the transportation industry. Chapter 1 focuses on petroleum; Chapter 2 energy; Chapter 3 highway vehicles; Chapter 4 light vehicles; Chapter 5 heavy vehicles; Chapter 6 alternative fuel vehicles; Chapter 7 fleet vehicles; Chapter 8 household vehicles; Chapter 9 nonhighway modes; Chapter 10 transportation and the economy; Chapter 11 greenhouse gas emissions; and Chapter 12 criteria pollutant emissions. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also three appendices which include detailed source information for some tables, measures of conversion, and the definition of Census divisions and regions. A glossary of terms and a title index are also included for the reader s convenience.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 32

The Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 32 is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office. Designed for use as a desk-top reference, the Data Book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity, and presents data on other factors that influence transportation energy use. The purpose of this document is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. The latest edition of the Data Book is available to a larger audience via the Internet (cta.ornl.gov/data). This edition of the Data Book has 12 chapters which focus on various aspects of the transportation industry. Chapter 1 focuses on petroleum; Chapter 2 energy; Chapter 3 highway vehicles; Chapter 4 light vehicles; Chapter 5 heavy vehicles; Chapter 6 alternative fuel vehicles; Chapter 7 fleet vehicles; Chapter 8 household vehicles; Chapter 9 nonhighway modes; Chapter 10 transportation and the economy; Chapter 11 greenhouse gas emissions; and Chapter 12 criteria pollutant emissions. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also three appendices which include detailed source information for some tables, measures of conversion, and the definition of Census divisions and regions. A glossary of terms and a title index are also included for the reader's convenience.

Cars↗

LHC forward physics

The goal of this report is to give a comprehensive overview of the rich field of forward physics, with a special attention to the topics that can be studied at the LHC. The report starts presenting a selection of the Monte Carlo simulation tools currently available, chapter 2, then enters the rich phenomenology of QCD at low, chapter 3, and high, chapter 4, momentum transfer, while the unique scattering conditions of central exclusive production are analyzed in chapter 5. The last two experimental topics, Cosmic Ray and Heavy Ion physics are presented in the chapter 6 and 7 respectively. Chapter 8 is dedicated to the BFKL dynamics, multiparton interactions, and saturation. The report ends with an overview of the forward detectors at LHC. Each chapter is correlated with a comprehensive bibliography, attempting to provide to the interested reader with a wide opportunity for further studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 34

The Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 34 is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office. Designed for use as a desk-top reference, the Data Book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity, and presents data on other factors that influence transportation energy use. The purpose of this document is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. The latest edition of the Data Book is available to a larger audience via the Internet (cta.ornl.gov/data). This edition of the Data Book has 12 chapters which focus on various aspects of the transportation industry. Chapter 1 focuses on petroleum; Chapter 2 energy; Chapter 3 highway vehicles; Chapter 4 light vehicles; Chapter 5 heavy vehicles; Chapter 6 alternative fuel vehicles; Chapter 7 fleet vehicles; Chapter 8 household vehicles; Chapter 9 nonhighway modes; Chapter 10 transportation and the economy; Chapter 11 greenhouse gas emissions; and Chapter 12 criteria pollutant emissions. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also three appendices which include detailed source information for some tables, measures of conversion, and the definition of Census divisions and regions. A glossary of terms and a title index are also included for the reader s convenience.

Air↗