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SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software also makes use of the LEGION distributed computing framework to leverage the power of a set of compute nodes. The approach has been demonstrated on a planetary science application in which numerical simulations are used to study the formation of asteroid families.

Burl, Michael

Effects of energy release on near field flow structure of gas jets

The primary objective is to understand how buoyancy affects the structure of the shear layer, the development of fluid dynamic instabilities, and formation of the coherent structures in the near-nozzle regions of gas jets. The secondary objectives are to study the role of buoyancy in lifting and reattachment process of diffusion flames, to evaluate the scaling behavior of diffusion flames, and to aid development and/or validation of theoretical models by providing quantitative data in the absence of buoyancy. Fast reacting hydrogen or hydrogen-inert fuels are used to isolate the effects of buoyancy on fluid dynamics without masking the flame behavior by soot and radiative heat transfer. This choice of fuel also permits an evaluation of simulating low gravity in low pressure ground experiments because the similarity constraints are relaxed for the fast reacting, nonsooting diffusion flames. The diagnostics consists primarily of a color schlieren system coupled with computer generated rainbow filters, video recording, and image analysis. The project involves (1) drop tower experiments, (2) ground experiments, and (3) theoretical analysis.

Agrawal, Ajay K.

Saturn Ring Observer

Answering fundamental questions about ring particle characteristics, and individual and group behavior, appears to require close-proximity (a few km) observations. Saturn's magnificent example of a ring system offers a full range of particle sizes, densities, and behaviors for study, so it is a natural choice for such detailed investigation. Missions implementing these observations require post-approach Delta(V) of approximately 10 km/s or more, so past mission concepts called upon Nuclear Electric Propulsion. The concept described here reduces the propulsive Delta(V) requirement to as little as 3.5 km/s, difficult but not impossible for high-performance chemical propulsion systems. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Spilker, T. R.

MRAC with Time-Varying Reference Model from Convex Combination

An extension of model reference adaptive control is presented that accommodates use of a time-varying reference model. Specifically, the reference model is taken to be a time-varying convex combination of two linear, time-invariant models. The design is intended to act as a way to smoothly transition between two different reference models without resorting to a scheduled switch. It also provides the ability to use an interpolated reference model when the plant is operating between design points. The time variation of the combination must satisfy some requirements to ensure stability but is otherwise user choice. Subject to these requirements, bounded tracking error behavior is demonstrated via Lyapunov stability analysis for the single-input, single-output, output feedback case. Tracking error convergence is asymptotic when time variation ceases. The proposed design is demonstrated in simulation of a numerical model.

Hashemi, Kelley E.

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Selectivity mechanisms of ion intercalation in Prussian blue analogs

Prussian blue analogs (PBAs) are a family of materials with facile, reversible, and selective ion transport capability for various ions via electrochemical intercalation, owing to their vacancy structure. The large tunable compositional space of PBAs allows for manipulation of intercalation behavior and selectivity by controlling structural vacancy level through choice of transition metal centers and modifications to the synthesis process. However, a lack of understanding of the mechanisms of ion selectivity hinders the material’s design process. Here, for this work, we investigated the origins of ion selectivity using a model PBA, copper hexacyanoferrate, and focused on eight technologically and biologically prominent ions, for which we determined a sequence of selectivity: Rb + > K + > Na + > Ba 2+ > Sr 2+ ≈ Ca 2+ > Mg 2+ > Li + . We provide electrochemical, structural, and redox evidence of strong correlation between the ion identity, the dominant charge-compensating redox, and preferred occupancy site. Specifically, using synchrotron anomalous X-ray diffraction (AXRD), we reveal that monovalent ions exhibit significant association with the corner sites of the unit cell and iron redox, whereas divalent ions display affinity toward the center site with higher ratios of copper redox. Informed by selectivity results, we applied CuHCFe to Li purification and achieved 99.9% purity. Our findings demonstrate an approach to elucidating ion intercalation behavior in order to distinguish and manipulate material properties to optimize separation performance.

Prussian blue analog

Atlanta—1991 Household Interview Survey

The Atlanta Regional Commission conducted a Household Travel Survey in 1991 to capture the reality of the locale, including infrastructure improvements—such as new highways, rail, and housing developments—additional households, income, trip chaining, and telecommuting, as well as other typical demographic characteristics. The survey collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel information on work and non-work travel behavior. Travel data includes trip generation, trip distribution, and modal choice for 3,626 households that completed a travel log.

1Hz data

A Data Type for Efficient Representation of Other Data Types

A self-organizing, monomorphic data type denoted a sequence has been conceived to address certain concerns that arise in programming parallel computers. A sequence in the present sense can be regarded abstractly as a vector, set, bag, queue, or other construct. Heretofore, in programming a parallel computer, it has been necessary for the programmer to state explicitly, at the outset, what parts of the program and the underlying data structures must be represented in parallel form. Not only is this requirement not optimal from the perspective of implementation; it entails an additional requirement that the programmer have intimate understanding of the underlying parallel structure. The present sequence data type overcomes both the implementation and parallel structure obstacles. In so doing, the sequence data type provides unified means by which the programmer can represent a data structure for natural and automatic decomposition to a parallel computing architecture. Sequences exhibit the behavioral and structural characteristics of vectors, but the underlying representations are automatically synthesized from combinations of programmers advice and execution use metrics. Sequences can vary bidirectionally between sparseness and density, making them excellent choices for many kinds of algorithms. The novelty and benefit of this behavior lies in the fact that it can relieve programmers of the details of implementations. The creation of a sequence enables decoupling of a conceptual representation from an implementation. The underlying representation of a sequence is a hybrid of representations composed of vectors, linked lists, connected blocks, and hash tables. The internal structure of a sequence can automatically change from time to time on the basis of how it is being used. Those portions of a sequence where elements have not been added or removed can be as efficient as vectors. As elements are inserted and removed in a given portion, then different methods are utilized to provide both an access and memory strategy that is optimized for that portion and the use to which it is put.

James, Mark

Analysis and design of ion thrusters for large space systems

This study undertakes the analysis and conceptual design of a 0.5 Newton electrostatic ion thruster suitable for use on large space system missions in the next decade. Either argon or xenon gas shall be used as propellant. A 50 cm diameter discharge chamber was selected to meet stipulated performance goals. The discharge plasma is contained at the boundary by a periodic structure of alternating permanent magnets generating a series of line cusps. Anode strips between the magnets collect Maxwellian electrons generated by a central cathode. Ion extraction utilizes either two or three grid optics at the user's choice. An extensive analysis was undertaken to investigate optics behavior in the high power environment of this large thruster. A plasma bridge neutralizer operating on inert gas provides charge neutralizing electrons to complete the design. The resulting conceptual thruster and the necessary power management and control requirements are described.

James, E. L.

Ballistic limit of 6061 T6 aluminum and threat to surface coatings for use with orbiting space station space suit materials

In recent years orbiting satellites, spent components, collisions and explosions have populated the near earth orbit with debris potentially more hazardous than the average meteoroid debris. This new debris has an average density of aluminum (2.78 g/cc) and an average encounter velocity of 10 km/sec. The space station will require many hours of work in this environment and there is concern over hazard to the assembly personnel. A proposed hard suit design utilizes 6061-T6 Aluminum for most of its exposed area. The aluminum surface will be treated for thermal and radiation control. The basic thickness of this suit will be on the order of 1.78 mm (0.070 inches). The selection of 6061-T6 Aluminum for space suits for use on the space station would appear to be worthwhile. The relatively ductile behavior of 6061-T6 aluminum is better than a choice of a more brittle material.

Fish, D.

Exploring Nonmotorized Travel in New York State Using 2017 National Household Travel Survey Data

This report presents systematic analysis of nonmotorized travel behavior within New York State (NYS) utilizing 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. As walking and biking assume increasingly prominent roles in advancing active transportation objectives, accessible mobility, and sustainable transportation systems, comprehensive understanding of these modal patterns becomes essential for evidence-based policy development and strategic planning initiatives. Recognizing the substantial geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic heterogeneity characterizing NYS—spanning from the concentrated urban fabric of New York City (NYC) to dispersed suburban and rural contexts—this analysis employs the structured "4Ws" analytical framework to examine participant demographics, spatial and temporal distributions, and motivational factors underlying active transportation choices relative to motorized alternatives. This methodological approach captures modal behavior patterns, user characteristics, trip purposes, and temporal variations across the state's diverse contexts. Additionally, the research examines behavioral differences among distinct user classifications, including walk-only and bike-only travelers, while conducting comparative analysis of nonmotorized travel patterns between ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) and non-ALICE household categories.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Characterization of the fatigue threshold behavior of UHMWPE

Ultra-high-molecular-weight-polyethylene (UHMWPE) has been the material of choice for bearings in total joint replacements (TJRs) for decades as a result of its excellent wear resistance, chemical inertness, energetic toughness, low friction, and biocompatibility. Utilization of this polymer in orthopedic devices requires oxidation, wear, and fatigue resistance. Balancing these important properties by tailoring processing techniques and modulating microstructural features has been an ongoing endeavor in the field. Research into the clinical applications of UHMWPE has primarily focused on the challenges of wear and oxidation while studies into the realm of fatigue have been more limited. Literature gaps exist in fully understanding the fatigue crack initiation near notches or propagation of small existing flaws in UHMWPE used in TJRs. In particular, the characterization of the fatigue thresholds and near-threshold fatigue behavior of orthopedic grade UHMWPE has yet to be thoroughly explored. In this work, we characterized the fatigue crack arrest threshold of clinically-relevant UHMWPE formulations. Correlations between the fatigue thresholds and bulk mechanical properties as well as microstructural properties were examined across these medical resins. The important role played by crosslinking in influencing the fatigue performance of UHMWPE is highlighted in this study. In addition, it is established that J-integral fracture toughness is the best predictor of fatigue thresholds and could possibly be used as a stand-in metric for fatigue performance if thresholds cannot be directly ascertained. Finally, this study corroborates that the true constitutive parameters best describe the mechanical behavior of UHMWPE.

Cross-linking

Measuring pilot workload in a moving-base simulator. I Asynchronous secondary choice-reaction task

The de facto method for measuring airplane pilot workload is based upon subjective ratings. While researchers agree that such subjective data should be bolstered by using objective behavioral measures, results to date have been mixed. No clear objective technique has surfaced as the metric of choice. It is believed that this difficulty is in part due to neglect of theoretical work in psychology that predicts some of the difficulties that are inherent in a futile search for 'the one and only' best secondary task to measure workload. An initial study that used both subjective ratings and an asynchronous choice-reaction secondary task was conducted to determine if such a secondary task could indeed meet the methodological constraints imposed by current theories of attention. Two variants of a flight scenario were combined with two levels of the secondary task. Appropriate single-task control conditions were also included. Results give grounds for cautious optimism but indicate that future research should use synchronous secondary tasks where possible.

Kantowitz, B. H.

Tuning the Mechanical Properties of Crosslinked Copolymers via Sequence and Solvent‐Selective Swelling for Vat Photopolymerization

Block copolymers (BCPs) offer distinct advantages for vat photopolymerization by enabling mechanically programmable network structures through microphase-separated morphologies that can be kinetically trapped during curing, yielding properties unattainable in homogeneous resins. However, the respective roles of repeat-unit sequence and solvent environment, together with their interplay in directing network formation and mechanical performance, remain unclear. Here, we synthesize a series of CO 2 -based polycarbonate copolymers comprising a crosslinkable glassy poly(vinyl cyclohexene carbonate) (PVCHC, A block) and a non-crosslinkable soft poly(propylene carbonate) (PPC, B block). The polymer sequence is systematically varied (ABA, BAB, and statistical), and solvent choice controls block-selective swelling to jointly control gelation behavior, microphase morphology, and mechanical response through changes in the accessibility and local environment of photocrosslinkable vinyl groups during network formation, as revealed by photorheology and small angle x-ray scattering. By tuning polymer sequence and curing solvent, we transform nominally identical formulations from brittle to highly ductile materials, achieving a three-orders-of-magnitude range in toughness (0.003 to 9.1 MJ m −3 ). These results establish clear structure–processing–property relationships and identify polymer sequence and selective solvation as powerful strategies for programming both printability and performance of block copolymer resins for additive manufacturing.

additive manufacturing

Rain-rate estimates for an attenuating radar

An iterative method has been used to produce rain-rate estimates for an attenuating frequency radar. An infinite number of higher-order estimates are shown to converge in the limit to the Hitschfeld-Bordan solution under certain conditions. An error analysis was performed by a model accounting for the randomness of the radar return power, the k-Z, Z-R relations, and offsets in the radar calibration constant. Since the behavior of the estimates strongly depends on system errors, the choice of the best estimate requires a knowledge of the variance and range of offsets in meteorological data and the calibration constant. As the errors increase, the use of the lower orders avoids significant overpredictions. In order to obtain reliable rain-rate predictions in the presence of realistic errors, an antenna pointing angles away from the horizontal at frequencies in the lower end of the X-band may be used. Such antenna configurations insure low attenuation.

Meneghini, R.

Real-gas effects 1: Simulation of ideal gas flow by cryogenic nitrogen and other selected gases

The thermodynamic properties of nitrogen gas do not thermodynamically approximate an ideal, diatomic gas at cryogenic temperatures. Choice of a suitable equation of state to model its behavior is discussed and the equation of Beattie and Bridgeman is selected as best meeting the needs for cryogenic wind tunnel use. The real gas behavior of nitrogen gas is compared to an ideal, diatomic gas for the following flow processes: isentropic expansion; normal shocks; boundary layers; and shock wave boundary layer interactions. The only differences in predicted pressure ratio between nitrogen and an ideal gas that may limit the minimum operating temperatures of transonic cryogenic wind tunnels seem to occur at total pressures approaching 9atmospheres and total temperatures 10 K below the corresponding saturation temperature, where the differences approach 1 percent for both isentropic expansions and normal shocks. Several alternative cryogenic test gases - air, helium, and hydrogen - are also analyzed. Differences in air from an ideal, diatomic gas are similar in magnitude to those of nitrogen. Differences for helium and hydrogen are over an order of magnitude greater than those for nitrogen or air. Helium and hydrogen do not approximate the compressible flow of an ideal, diatomic gas.

Hall, R. M.

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance x,ary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are (1) determining, what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major U.S. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimility with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider un-modelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance vary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are: (1) determining what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major u.s. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort-topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimality with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider unmodelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.