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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Crane, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating a Regional Climate Model Simulation of Greenland Ice Sheet Snow and Firn Density for Improved Surface Mass Balance Estimates

Modeling vertical profiles of snow and firn density near the surface of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is key to estimating GrIS mass balance, and by extension, global sea level change. To understand sources of error in simulated GrIS density, we compare GrIS density profiles from a leading regional climate model with coincident in situ measurements. We identify key contributors to model density and mass balance biases, including underestimated simulated fresh snow density (which leads to underestimation of density in the top 1 m of snow by ~10%). In areas undergoing frequent melting, positive density biases (of 7% in the top 1 m, and 10% between 1 and 10 m) are likely associated with errors in representing meltwater production, retention and refreezing. The results highlight the importance of accurately capturing fresh snow density and meltwater processes in models used to estimate GrIS mass balance change.

P M Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2001

Observations of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and Implications for Regional Climate Variability

Massive quantities of dust aerosol, originating at source locations in the Saharan desert are frequently transported westward across the Atlantic. Saharan dust has been frequently identified at ground-based stations in South America, on Barbados, in Florida and in Texas. Recently, in July of 2000, the Puerto Rican Dust Experiment (PRiDE), consisting of researchers from the U.S. Navy, NASA, the University of Miami and the University of Puerto Rico joined together to study this important phenomenon. Numerical forecast models tracked each dust event as the dust left the African continent and transversed the Atlantic. Ground-based, ship-based, airborne and satellite sensors were used to characterize the physical and radiative properties of the dust aerosol. The dust plays an important role in terms of radiative forcing of regional climate. Satellite sensors such as NASA's EOS-MODIS aboard the Terra satellite will provide important continuing information on the dust aerosol and its climatic effects.

Remer, L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of SMAP Products for Improving Streamflow Simulations over Tropical Climate Region—Is Spatial Information More Important Than Temporal Information?

Streamflow is one of the key variables in the hydrological cycle. Simulation and forecasting of streamflow are challenging tasks for hydrologists, especially in sparsely gauged areas. Coarse spatial resolution remote sensing soil moisture products (equal to or larger than 9 km) are often assimilated into hydrological models to improve streamflow simulation in large catchments. This study uses the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique to assimilate SMAP soil moisture products at the coarse spatial resolution of 9 km (SMAP 9 km), and downscaled SMAP soil moisture product at the higher spatial resolution of 1 km (SMAP 1 km), into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the usefulness of different spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed soil moisture products in streamflow simulation and forecasting. The experiment was set up for eight catchments across the tropical climate of Vietnam, with varying catchment areas from 267 to 6430 km^2 during the period 2017–2019. We comprehensively evaluated the EnKF-based SWAT model in simulating streamflow at low, average, and high flow. Our results indicated that high-spatial resolution of downscaled SMAP 1 km is more beneficial in the data assimilation framework in aiding the accuracy of streamflow simulation, as compared to that of SMAP 9 km, especially for the small catchments. Our analysis on the impact of observation resolution also indicates that the improvement in the streamflow simulation with data assimilation is more significant at catchments where downscaled SMAP 1 km has fewer missing observations. This study is helpful for adding more understanding of performances of soil moisture data assimilation based hydrological modelling over the tropical climate region, and exhibits the potential use of remote sensing data assimilation in hydrology.

soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS1992

Regional climatic effects of atmospheric SO2 on Mars

The conditions under which the valley networks on Mars may have formed remains controversial. The magnitude of an atmospheric greenhouse effect by an early massive CO2 atmosphere has recently been questioned by Kasting. Recent calculations indicate that if solar luminosity were less than about 86 percent of its current value, formation of CO2 clouds in the Martian atmosphere would depress the atmospheric lapse rate and reduce the magnitude of surface warming. In light of recent revisions of magma generation on Mars during each Martian epoch, and the suggestions by Wanke et al. that the role of liquid SO2 should be more carefully explored, we have recalculated the potential greenhouse warming by atmospheric SO2 on Mars, with an emphasis on more localized effects. In the vicinity of an active eruption, the concentration of atmospheric SO2 will be higher than if it is assumed that the erupted SO2 is instantaneously globally distributed. The local steady-state concentration of SO2 is a function of the rate at which it is released, its atmospheric lifetime, and the rate at which local winds act to disperse the SO2. We have made estimates of eruption rates, length of eruption, and dispersion rates of volcanically released SO2, for a variety of atmospheric conditions and atmospheric lifetimes of SO2 to explore the maximum regional climatic effect of SO2.

Postawko, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Seasonal Monitoring of Melt and Accumulation Within the Deep Percolation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Comparison with Simulations of Regional Climate Modeling

Increasing melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) recorded over the past several years has resulted in significant changes of the percolation regime of the ice sheet. It remains unclear whether Greenland's percolation zone will act as a meltwater buffer in the near future through gradually filling all pore space or if near-surface refreezing causes the formation of impermeable layers, which provoke lateral runoff. Homogeneous ice layers within perennial firn, as well as near-surface ice layers of several meter thickness have been observed in firn cores. Because firn coring is a destructive method, deriving stratigraphic changes in firn and allocation of summer melt events is challenging. To overcome this deficit and provide continuous data for model evaluations on snow and firn density, temporal changes in liquid water content and depths of water infiltration, we installed an upward-looking radar system (upGPR) 3.4 m below the snow surface in May 2016 close to Camp Raven (66.4779 deg N, 46.2856 deg W) at 2120 m a.s.l. The radar is capable of quasi-continuously monitoring changes in snow and firn stratigraphy, which occur above the antennas. For summer 2016, we observed four major melt events, which routed liquid water into various depths beneath the surface. The last event in mid-August resulted in the deepest percolation down to about 2.3 m beneath the surface. Comparisons with simulations from the regional climate model MAR are in very good agreement in terms of seasonal changes in accumulation and timing of onset of melt. However, neither bulk density of near-surface layers nor the amounts of liquid water and percolation depths predicted by MAR correspond with upGPR data. Radar data and records of a nearby thermistor string, in contrast, matched very well for both timing and depth of temperature changes and observed water percolations. All four melt events transferred a cumulative mass of 56 kg/(sq. m) into firn beneath the summer surface of 2015. We find that continuous observations of liquid water content, percolation depths and rates for the seasonal mass fluxes are sufficiently accurate to provide valuable information for validation of model approaches and help to develop a better understanding of liquid water retention and percolation in perennial firn.

Heilig, Achim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub‐tropics and more water‐limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5–1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation‐forced warming and contribute to year‐round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2‐driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts.

Regional climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2002

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Determinability of inter-annual global and regional climatic changes of the earth radiation budget

The degradation characteristics of Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiments are examined with reference to the results of recent investigations into the calibration adjustments of the Wide Field of View channels on board the Nimbus 6 and 7 ERB experiments. The mechanisms of degradation are discussed, and changes in the transmissive and reflective properties of radiometers affecting their sensitivities and calibrations are estimated. It is emphasized that in order to observe interannual climate change on a global or a regional scale, calibration adjustments are a necessity.

Ardanuy, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Crane, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Hewitson, B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

Lipschultz, Fred↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Anthropogenic Land Use and Land Cover Change on Regional Climate Extremes

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land useland cover change (LULCC) on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics.

Near-surface↗
NASA NTRS1988

Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 1: Winter

Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea level pressure, precipitation rate, 200 mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind, generated by two versions of the GISS climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computational grids and the specification of the sea surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal variations of the model fields are shown alongside maps showing the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed, and also summarized in tables according to geographic regions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 2: Summer

Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

Irwin, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗