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At least 55 records · Page 3

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Interplay of Topography, Fire History, and Climate on Interior Alaska Boreal Forest Vegetation Dynamics in the 21st Century: A Landsat Time-Series Analysis

This study investigates vegetation dynamics in boreal forests of Interior Alaska, focusing on topography, fire history, and climate influences. The study area includes Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (BCEF) and surrounding region, categorized by topography (upland, floodplain, lowland) and fire history. Using Mann–Kendall trend and Theil–Sen slope analyses on Landsat-derived spectral metrics: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), we observed a shift from browning to greening trends, particularly in historically burned areas. The photosynthetic activity in burned upland converged with unburned areas ~30 years post-fire, coincident with a shift towards deciduous dominance during post-fire succession. Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) trends revealed a significant increase in vegetation moisture content across all topographies. We introduce Effective Seasonal Precipitation Index (ESPI), which combines prior-year annual precipitation with current-year spring snow depth. Its positive correlation with NDMI highlights its potential for monitoring vegetation moisture dynamics at the landscape scale. Furthermore, by correlating dendrochronology-based climate indices, we found strong correlation between NDMI and normalized Supplemental Precipitation Index (nSPI), across topographies. Overall, this research provides critical insights into how climate and fire influence interior boreal vegetation, highlighting the effects of increased precipitation, and topography on shaping differential vegetation responses across the landscape.

Google Earth Engine

Mineral-Associated Organic Matter Concentration Beneath Northern Temperate Trees Varies by Mycorrhizal Type and Leaf Habit

Mycorrhizal fungi are important drivers of soil organic matter dynamics, but it can be difficult to isolate the effects of the fungi themselves from covarying traits of their host trees. For example, many trees with an evergreen leaf habit associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi, while many deciduous tree species associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. Because leaf habit influences the quantity and quality of organic matter inputs to soil, it is often an important factor in soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and thus can mask the effects of mycorrhizal fungi on soil organic matter processes. We evaluated how tree mycorrhizal associations and leaf habit separately influence the amount and composition of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) in forest soils in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. We measured carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and C/N ratios of three soil density fractions beneath six tree species that vary in mycorrhizal association and leaf habit. We found lower concentrations of MAOM C and N beneath evergreen vs. deciduous trees, but only for tree species associating with AM fungi. Further, MAOM C/N was higher beneath evergreen trees and beneath trees with ECM fungi rather than AM fungi. Furthermore, these results add to the growing body of support for mycorrhizal fungi as mediators of soil organic matter dynamics, suggesting that the MAOM fraction is more sensitive to leaf habit beneath AM-associated versus ECM-associated trees. Because MAOM decomposition is thought to be less responsive than POM decomposition to changes in soil temperature and moisture, differences in the tendency of AM- and ECM-dominated forests to support MAOM formation and persistence may lead to systematic differences in the response of these forest types to ongoing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

From carbon to climate action: harnessing basalt for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage onshore and offshore

Abating emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are crucial in avoiding catastrophic climate change. Basalt reservoirs offer suitable CO 2 storage sites and are present onshore and offshore. This study compares the geological, economic and social aspects of CO 2 storage in both domains using two basalt formations from the Republic of Ireland: the Limerick Igneous Suite and the Druid Formation. Offshore reservoirs offer larger storage resources but are more expensive to develop. Nevertheless, both offer gigatonne-scale theoretical CO 2 storage. Reviewing public perception studies on wind energy demonstrates that the commonly held belief that offshore projects face less opposition owing to their distance from communities has been dispelled, while similar studies on carbon capture and removal show no preference for onshore or offshore development. Instead, a general scepticism towards carbon removal is observed, with concerns that it hinders broader decarbonization efforts. The desire of all stakeholders to be involved throughout project development is consistently observed. Lessons from offshore natural gas projects highlight the consequences of failing to engage with local communities. The Republic of Ireland has significant potential to deploy geological CO 2 storage in basalt reservoirs, but policy hurdles such as legal limits on storage volumes must be overcome to reconcile climate ambition and legislative capacity.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Synergies and trade-offs of multi-use solar landscapes

Research on multi-use solar-combining solar energy with agriculture (agrivoltaics) or natural vegetation (ecovoltaics)-is developing rapidly, but interdisciplinary integration is needed to better address management issues and to guide future research. Agrivoltaics allows farmers to develop and manage microclimates, which can help to retain or expand agricultural production in the context of changing climate and land-water limitations. However, improvements in food-energy production and other co-benefits are often site-specific, depending on background climate, soil conditions and system design. In conclusion, to optimize multi-use systems, it is essential to consider local economic impacts, ecosystem services and stakeholder perspectives in design and implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

PSInet: a new global water potential network

Abstract Given the pressing challenges posed by climate change, it is crucial to develop a deeper understanding of the impacts of escalating drought and heat stress on terrestrial ecosystems and the vital services they offer. Soil and plant water potential play a pivotal role in governing the dynamics of water within ecosystems and exert direct control over plant function and mortality risk during periods of ecological stress. However, existing observations of water potential suffer from significant limitations, including their sporadic and discontinuous nature, inconsistent representation of relevant spatio-temporal scales and numerous methodological challenges. These limitations hinder the comprehensive and synthetic research needed to enhance our conceptual understanding and predictive models of plant function and survival under limited moisture availability. In this article, we present PSInet (PSI—for the Greek letter Ψ used to denote water potential), a novel collaborative network of researchers and data, designed to bridge the current critical information gap in water potential data. The primary objectives of PSInet are as follows. (i) Establishing the first openly accessible global database for time series of plant and soil water potential measurements, while providing important linkages with other relevant observation networks. (ii) Fostering an inclusive and diverse collaborative environment for all scientists studying water potential in various stages of their careers. (iii) Standardizing methodologies, processing and interpretation of water potential data through the engagement of a global community of scientists, facilitated by the dissemination of standardized protocols, best practices and early career training opportunities. (iv) Facilitating the use of the PSInet database for synthesizing knowledge and addressing prominent gaps in our understanding of plants’ physiological responses to various environmental stressors. The PSInet initiative is integral to meeting the fundamental research challenge of discerning which plant species will thrive and which will be vulnerable in a world undergoing rapid warming and increasing aridification.

Forestry

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Blue Carbon Stocks Along the Pacific Coast of North America Are Mainly Driven by Local Rather Than Regional Factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

emergent marsh

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland

Effects of hurricane disturbance and increased temperature on carbon cycling and storage of a Puerto Rican forest: a mechanistic investigation of above- and belowground processes (Final Technical Report)

The overall goal of the Tropical Responses for Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) is to assess the effects of increasing temperature on tropical plant and soil carbon fluxes and storage as the forest recovers from major hurricane disturbance that occurred in September 2017. Ultimately, we aimed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence with which tropical forests are represented in Earth System models to make more accurate global forecasts of future climate. We focused on both above- and belowground processes and explored temperature controls over critical aspects of carbon and nutrient cycling for tropical plants, soil, and microbes. TRACE is located in a wet tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest close to the USDA Forest Service Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The warming treatment consists of six 4.7 m diameter plots. Three of the plots receive infrared warming and three have the same infrastructure but are not warmed (using ‘dummy’ heaters). Each plot was monitored from 2018-2023 to investigate two major questions: 1) Are there legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery following hurricane disturbance? 2) Will the trajectory of forest recovery following disturbance be affected by warmer temperatures? Concurrent soil incubation experiments were conducted to enable more controlled mechanistic investigations of temperature response on microbial function. In sum, our goal was to use this novel climate manipulation experiment (the only of its kind in any tropical forest) and once-in-a-lifetime chance to assess how temperature and hurricane disturbance interact to affect coupled biogeochemical cycling in a tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Moisture-mineral interactions drive bacterial and organic matter turnover in glacier-sourced riparian sediments undergoing pedogenesis

Glacial recession is occurring at unprecedented rates resulting in increased sediment accumula-tions in some riverine ecosystems. Increased sediment deposition has implications for ecosystem stability (e.g., floods and river paths) and environmental services (e.g., carbon sequestration). Soils and sediments have an enormous potential to retain carbon (C), predominantly due to sorp-tion to mineral surfaces. However, C persistence may be sensitive to climate-change induced temperature and moisture variations. We coupled ultrahigh resolution organic matter composition classification with bacterial characterization and respiration measurements to test the combined effects of temperature (4 vs 20°C) and moisture (50 vs 100% water-filled pore space) on C turn-over in sediments maintained under different mineralogical conditions (illite-amended vs non-amended). Here we show that the inhibition of CO 2 emissions from the combined effect of in-creased moisture content and illite was reflected in the turnover of key molecular signatures, such as the nominal oxidation state of C, often irrespective of temperature. However, shifts in bacteri-al communities from a coupled moisture-mineral interaction, were temperature-dependent. Our results highlight the importance of moisture in driving mineral-organic interactions and suggest that C in clay-rich, water-saturated sediments is both thermodynamically unfavorable and miner-al-protected from microbial consumption.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Power Systems Resilience

As communities take steps toward identifying and achieving their clean energy goals, the topic of resilience will likely emerge. This presentation aims to help inform and empower communities as they explore how their clean energy projects can address evolving power systems reliability and resilience due to climate change and other factors. The training provides a basic introduction to power systems and the resilience challenges this traditional infrastructure faces, as well as strategies for enhancing this important quality of electric service.

communities

From Depletion to Restoration: Lessons From Long‐Term Monitoring of Carbon Gains and Losses in Cropping Systems

As global atmospheric CO 2 rapidly approaches a key tipping point, there is an urgent need to implement strategies to reverse this pattern. A generally accepted understanding of carbon (C) in agricultural fields includes: (H1) substantial C loss occurs when natural vegetation is converted to crops, (H2) soils typically reach a steady-state C concentration under contemporary practices, and (H3) improved management or crop selection can enhance soil C stocks over time. Significant variability exists, but studies consistently show large C losses from agricultural ecosystems, supporting H1. Although steady-state C levels (H2) are commonly assumed, measuring C gains or losses in mature agroecosystems is challenging. Efforts to increase soil C storage (H3) have limited data due to the diversity of potential practices, compounded by substantial variability in soil C measurements. Here, long-term (7–17 year) ecosystem C flux data from diverse cropping systems revealed that conventionally tilled annual row crops (maize and soybean) act as significant long-term atmospheric C sources, challenging H2. Furthermore, conservation tillage practices reduced C losses compared with conventional tillage but showed minimal evidence for long-term ecosystem C storage, even after 20+ years. This indicates that no-till practices reduce C losses but imply that no soil C is added, challenging H3. By contrast, perennial Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum, and restored tallgrass prairie systems store C at the ecosystem scale more effectively than minimally tilled annual row crops. Analysis over multiple years demonstrates significant ecosystem C storage with perennial crops, varying by species, starting in the first year of transition. These findings, although focused on one region, suggest that the assumptions of steady-state C levels and increased storage from conservation practices do not universally apply and that significant changes to agroecosystems are required to increase C storage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Satellite remote sensing for environmental sustainable development goals: A review of applications for terrestrial and marine protected areas

With few years left to achieve the vital United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), member nations must urgently leverage technological advancements in environmental monitoring to succeed. Remote sensing now provides decades of global observations at a variety of spatio-temporal scales and a litany of data products to guide comprehensive measures for climate action, and aquatic and terrestrial biota preservation. Protected areas, such as national parks and wildlife preserves, represent largely untapped resources for both applying robust conservation measures and testing ambitious new approaches to sustainable development that could jumpstart the much-needed adoption of strategies to efficiently pursue global sustainability. This review summarizes recent demonstrated utilities of remotely sensed data applied to protected areas for research related to SDG goals 13, 14, and 15: “Climate Action”, “Life below Water”, and “Life on Land”. We identify successful uses of such data for each SDG, identify areas for improvement, and provide recommendations from the literature on how to expand what others have done to achieve lofty goals with global impact. We demonstrate that remote sensing provides a valuable tool for achieving SDGs as it facilitates monitoring vegetation health, water quality and condition, and climate variables at large spatial and fine temporal scales, while also evaluating the effectiveness of management and conservation practices. Issues remain, however, in that there is currently no reference from which to relate goal progress to human livelihoods. Further, the current relationship between remotely sensed indices and ecological services that determine sustainable development omit steps that would establish this connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES