Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Coastlines”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Persistent meanders and eddies lead to quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns in a weak western boundary current

The Brazil Current (BC) is a weak western boundary current flowing along the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. It is frequently described as a flow with intense mesoscale activity and relatively low volume transport between 5.0 and 10.0 Sv. We use a 13-year eddy-resolving primitive-equation simulation to show that the presence of persistent meanders and eddies leads to characteristic quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns, aptly extracted through climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures (cLCS). The cLCS position the surface expression of the BC core along the 2000-m isobath, in excellent visual agreement with high resolution satellite sea-surface temperature and the model Eulerian mean velocity. The cLCS deformation pattern also responds to zonally persistent cross-shelf SSH transition from positive (high) values near coastline to low (negative) values between 200- and 2000-m and back to positive (high) offshore from the 2000-m isobath. Zonally-paired cyclonic and anticyclonic structures are embedded in this transition, also causing the cLCS to deform into chevrons. An efficient transport barrier is identified close to the 200-m isobath confirmed by limited inshore movement of drogued drifters and accurately indicated by an along slope maxima of climatological strength of attraction. We also show that the persistent cyclonic and anticyclonic structures may induce localized cross-shelf transport. Regions of low climatological strength of attraction coincide with large shelves and with stagnant synthetic trajectories. We also show that cLCS accurately depict trajectories initiated at the location of Chevron’s spill (November 2011) as compared to synthetic and satellite-tracked trajectories, and the outline of the oil from that accident. There is also an agreement between the large-scale oil slicks reaching the Brazilian beaches (from August 2019 to February 2020) and the strength of climatological attraction at the coast. Our work also clarifies the influence of persistent mesoscale structures on the regional circulation. The identification and quantitative description of climatological Lagrangian coherent structures is expected to improve the effectiveness of future emergency response to oil spills, contingency planning, rescue operations, larval and fish connectivity assessment, drifter launch strategies, waste pollutant and marine debris dispersion and destination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protection and restoration of coastal habitats yield multiple benefits for urban residents as sea levels rise

Globally, rising seas threaten massive numbers of people and significant infrastructure. Adaptation strategies increasingly incorporate nature-based solutions. New science can illuminate where these solutions are appropriate in urban environments and what benefits they provide to people. Together with stakeholders in San Mateo County, California, USA, we co-developed nature-based solutions to support adaptation planning. We created six guiding principles to shape planning, summarized vulnerability to sea-level rise and opportunities for nature-based solutions, created three adaptation scenarios, and compared multiple benefits provided by each scenario. Adaptation scenarios that included investments in nature-based solutions deliver up to eight times the benefits of a traditionally engineered baseline as well as additional habitat for key species. The magnitude and distribution of benefits varied at subregional scales along the coastline. Our results demonstrate practical tools and engagement approaches to assessing the multiple benefits of nature-based solutions in an urban estuary that can be replicated in other regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in terrestrial characteristics and erosion rates on the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

Abstract Arctic coastal environments are eroding and rapidly changing. A lack of pan-Arctic observations limits our ability to understand controls on coastal erosion rates across the entire Arctic region. Here, we capitalize on an abundance of geospatial and remotely sensed data, in addition to model output, from the North Slope of Alaska to identify relationships between historical erosion rates and landscape characteristics to guide future modeling and observational efforts across the Arctic. Using existing datasets from the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and a hierarchical clustering algorithm, we developed a set of 16 coastal typologies that captures the defining characteristics of environments susceptible to coastal erosion. Relationships between landscape characteristics and historical erosion rates show that no single variable alone is a good predictor of erosion rates. Variability in erosion rate decreases with increasing coastal elevation, but erosion rate magnitudes are highest for intermediate elevations. Areas along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast (ABSC) protected by barrier islands showed a three times lower erosion rate on average, suggesting that barrier islands are critical to maintaining mainland shore position. Finally, typologies with the highest erosion rates are not broadly representative of the ABSC and are generally associated with low elevation, north- to northeast-facing shorelines, a peaty pebbly silty lithology, and glaciomarine deposits with high ice content. All else being equal, warmer permafrost is also associated with higher erosion rates, suggesting that warming permafrost temperatures may contribute to higher future erosion rates on permafrost coasts. The suite of typologies can be used to guide future modeling and observational efforts by quantifying the distribution of coastlines with specific landscape characteristics and erosion rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Offshore lightning more active and intense in U.S. East Coast wind areas than in North Sea

Fast winds over open areas off the U.S. East Coast resulted in many offshore areas being opened for wind power deployment. Yet lightning is active in this same general area. Lightning damage has been noted as the leading cause of unplanned downtime of wind farms. Here we use lightning observations from 2020–2022 to quantify lightning activity—U.S. East Coast Wind Lease and Wind Planning areas received about 14-times the lightning strokes and about 18-times the energy transfer compared to the operational wind farms in the North Sea. A strong north-south U.S. gradient of lightning exists : low off the coast of Maine, growing higher off Chesapeake Bay, and high south of Virginia. Very high lightning activity also occurs about 250 km from the U.S. coastline, which is 50–100 km outside currently designated Wind Areas but likely relevant to planning floating wind farms further from shore. International lightning protection standards, such as IEC 614200-24, use lightning stroke density and turbine top-height to estimate damage to wind turbines, but it remains unclear if such standards could protect U.S. offshore wind turbines in active lightning areas where the turbine top-height can be 100 m taller than the next tallest object for tens to hundreds of kilometers. This analysis suggests U.S. East Coast offshore wind farms will be subjected to much higher lightning stroke and lightning energy densities than the North Sea counterparts. Preparing the turbine designs in anticipation of these more active U.S. lightning risks will help foster wind’s growing contribution to a reliable and resilient low-carbon energy future.

lightning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocean Wave Energy Harvester with Oak Ridge Converter

Oceans can provide great potential for the American energy dominance. There is significant potential to utilize marine energy resources. In the United States, the total amount of marine energy available is equivalent to about 57% of the country's total power generation in 2019. Even if a fraction of this technical potential is harnessed, marine energy technologies could play a crucial role in fulfilling the nation's energy requirements. Marine energy resources are spread out geographically, and because more than 50% of the United States' population resides within 50 miles of the coastline, they are well-positioned to power local communities. These resources are also very dependable, making them a viable option for contributing to a consistent, trustworthy energy grid. Due to their predictable daily and seasonal patterns, marine energy resources can be integrated into our energy generation portfolio. On the other hand, ocean environment presents many challenges for cost-effective renewable energy conversion, including optimal control of ocean wave energy. This report presents a novel cost-effective energy conversion technique for ocean wave energy harvesters. The proposed system is simulated by using the Oak Ridge Converter to directly interface ocean wave energy source with the utility grid. The system description and simulation results are presented in detail. The results show that the proposed system is a cost effective and promising technology to reduce the infrastructure cost for ocean wave energy harvesters.

Sutton, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000078885935)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tidal–hydrological dynamics of water temperature across freshwater forested wetlands on the northeastern Pacific coast

Abstract Tidal freshwater forests were once extensive across temperate coastlines, but loss and fragmentation have made estimation of their ecosystem functions challenging. We measured water temperature for 2 years in three Sitka spruce tidal forests, a restoration site, and an adjacent emergent marsh on the Columbia River, Washington, United States. We assessed spatial variability of water temperature within sites including the effects of hydrology, differences among bay and tributary tidal forests, and differences between the tidal forests and the mainstem Columbia, the restoration site, and the emergent marsh. The tidal forests nearest to the bay had lower interior water temperatures than their channel confluences by up to 2.5°C (weekly median temperature) and 2.0°C (weekly maximum temperature), with most cooling occurring during the low‐flow months of July–September. Tributary sites had maximum temperatures up to 1.9°C cooler than bay sites and 4.2°C cooler than the mainstem. Temperatures in the two bay sites decreased by −0.16°C/100 m and −0.07°C/100 m, on average. The restoration site had the smallest within‐site temperature gradient. Differences in maximum temperatures were greatest when tidal range was low, while higher tidal ranges were associated with warmer and more variable site interiors relative to their confluences. These results suggest that water temperatures in these tidal forests can provide temperature refugia for cold water biota including salmon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R 2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Critical Shear Stress for Erosion Under Laminar Jet Flow

Particle erosion is an important process in both natural and manmade environments. For example, in natural environments particle or sediment erosion rates determine the course of rivers, depth of streams, and fate of deltas. The interplay between erosion rates and flow patterns can have dramatic impact on shorelines. Where hydrodynamic jet flows or rip currents change direction, sediments may accumulate or disperse altering the shape of coastlines and the ecosystems and economies that rely on them. In man-made systems, jet flows may be used to mobilize particles from surfaces or within industrial scale mixing tanks. For example, in the nuclear industry, impinging jet mixers may be used to mobilize and suspend sludges at the bottom of waste tanks. In each of these examples, the Shields diagram is useful to determine the conditions under which erosion occurs. This diagram plots the scaled critical shear stress for erosion as a function of the particle size as embedded in particle Reynolds numbers, Archimedes numbers, or their equivalents. Although the data, that carries a large spread, is largely in agreement with mathematical models, for the smallest particles, model predictions diverge from each other and from experimental data. Indeed, there is substantial uncertainty about the Shields diagrams at relatively small particle sizes and flow rates. Here we evaluate critical shear stresses for erosion under laminar jet flow. To date critical shear stresses for erosion, as embodied in Shields diagrams, have largely been developed for turbulent flow both experimental and mathematically. However, curves on the Shields diagrams diverge among various models at lower particle Reynolds numbers. Indeed, how critical shear stresses for erosion develop under fully laminar jet flow conditions (not simply laminar boundary layers under turbulent flow) remains unclear. Here we address this gap, which is particularly important for mobilization of the smallest particles. We find the Shields parameter to be inversely proportional to the particle Reynolds numbers under laminar jet flow conditions similar to turbulent conditions.

critical shear stresses, erosion rates, effective ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗