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Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought, have a large impact on society through human health, destruction of infrastructure, ecological change, and economic losses. Reanalyses such as NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective Analysis, version 2 (MERRA-2) are a valuable tool for analyzing past extreme events to determine their underlying causes and how extremes have changed over the past four decades. The detection of extreme events relies on a threshold for precipitation or temperature that is derived using a reference period, which can then be used to determine how extreme an event was or what the return period is. Operational centers typically use a 30-year climatology period that shifts in time every ten years, while the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the maximum amount of data should be included for the detection of extreme events due to their rare occurrence. As global and regional climate continues to change, the interpretation of extreme events is reliant on the baseline period that is used for the underlying thresholds and can be a source of uncertainty for the policy making community. Three baseline periods – 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and 1981-2020 – will be used to compute percentiles of temperature and precipitation across the contiguous United States and will then by employed to determine monthly indices representing heatwaves, cold spells, and extreme precipitation events. A spatial and temporal analysis of the resulting extreme weather indices will demonstrate the appropriateness for each baseline period for the evaluation of extreme events.

Extremes↗

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for information content and should continue to be viewed as a resource for coastal zone monitoring. The project initialized the effort to transfer a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to the MODIS platform for case 2 waters. MODIS enables monitoring of turbid coastal zones around the globe. The MODIS SSC algorithm requires refinements in the atmospheric aerosol contribution, sun glint influence, and designation of the sediment inherent optical properties (IOPs); the framework for continued development is in place with a plan to release the algorithm to the MODIS direct broadcast community.

Menzel, W. Paul↗

Potential High Priority Subaerial Environments for Mars Sample Return

Subaerial environments of interest for Mars Sample Return include surface or near-surface sites not covered by a body of water, but having direct access to water from precipitation, snow melt, or ambient-temperature groundwater. This includes soils, wetlands, ephemeral ponds, cold springs, and periglacial/glacial environments, with paleosol profiles as a high priority collection site. Such soils can be topped by aqueously deposited sediments and precipitates from wetlands, ephemeral ponds, and springs. The composition and morphology of paleosols preserve evidence of past climate, aqueous conditions, and life. Key topics addressed by samples collected from subaerial environments include: 1) Constrain the duration of interaction with liquid water by investigating a weathering profile from the surface to unaltered parent material. 2) Assess the characteristics of past liquid water, and how it has changed through time. 3) Investigate weathered materials such as soils, paleosols, sediments, weathering rinds or rock coatings to assess past climate. 4) Examine characteristics of past aeolian and atmospheric processes.

Source record↗

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Alaska Humans Factors Safety Study: The Southern Coastal Area

At the request of the Alaska Air Carriers Association, researchers from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System, at NASA Ames Research Center, conducted a study on aspects of safety in Alaskan Part 135 air taxi operations. An interview form on human factors safety issues was created by a representative team from the FAA-Alaska, NTSB-Alaska, NASA-ASRS, and representatives of the Alaska Air Carriers Association which was subsequently used in the interviews of pilots and managers. Because of the climate and operational differences, the study was broken into two geographical areas, the southern coastal areas and the northern portion of the state. This presentation addresses the southern coastal areas, specifically: Anchorage, Dillingham, King Salmon, Kodiak, Cold Bay, Juneau, and Ketchikan. The interview questions dealt with many of the potential pressures on pilots and managers associated with the daily air taxi operations in Alaska. The impact of the environmental factors such as the lack of available communication, navigation and weather information systems was evaluated. The results of this study will be used by government and industry working in Alaska. These findings will contribute important information on specific Alaska safety issues for eventual incorporation into training materials and policies that will help to assure the safe conduct of air taxi flights in Alaska.

Chappell, Sheryl L.↗

Experimental Evidence for Weathering and Martian Sulfate Formation Under Extremely Cold Weather-Limited Environments

High resolution photography and spectroscopy of the martian surface (MOC, HiRISE) from orbit has revolutionized our view of Mars with one of the most important discoveries being wide-spread layered sedimentary deposits associated with sulfate minerals across the low to mid latitude regions of Mars [1, 2]. The mechanism for sulfate formation on Mars has been frequently attributed to playa-like evaporative environments under prolonged warm conditions [3]. However, there are several problems with the presence of prolonged surface temperatures on Mars above 273 K during the Noachian including the faint young Sun [4] and the presence of suitable greenhouse gases [5]. The geomorphic evidence for early warm conditions may instead be explained by periodic episodes of warming rather than long term prolonged warm temperatures [6]. An alternate view of the ancient martian climate contends that prolonged warm temperatures were never present and that the atmosphere and climate has been similar to modern conditions throughout most of its history [6]. This view is more consistent with the climate models, but has had a difficult time explaining the sedimentary history of Mars and in particular the presence of sulfate minerals. We suggest here that mixtures of atmospheric aerosols, ice, and dust have the potential for creating small films of cryo-concentrated acidic solutions that may represent an important unexamined environment for understanding weathering processes on Mars [7, 8]. This study seeks to test whether sulfate formation may be possible at temperatures well below 0 C in water limited environments removing the need for prolonged warm periods to form sulfates on early Mars.

Niles, Paul B.↗

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗

Some Applications of SiFSAP for Wildfires, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics Studies

The Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP and JPSS have a spatial resolution ( ~14.5 km) better than most global weather and climate models. Most recent improvement in the quality of these products enables us to use these high-resolution observation-based sounding data for air quality, weather and atmospheric dynamics studies. A few cases studies through a synergistic use of SiFSAP from S-NPP and J-1 and the reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 will be presented, which include a process-oriented analysis of (1) a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event occurred on June 11-13, 2017 in the southwestern US, (2) one extreme cold air break (CAO) episode occurred on 27-31 January 2019 across much of the US Midwest and its impact from stratospheric downward transport, and (3) dynamic transport of carbon monoxide (CO) associated with Australia’s unprecedented fire from the end of 2019 to early 2020. These examples will demonstrate the value of SiFSAP for weather, atmospheric dynamics, air quality, wildfires studies and for model evaluations.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF-Chem model simulations. After validating the capability of the WRF-Chem in realistically simulating the aerosol-cloud precipitation interactions, we conduct sensitivity studies where the AOD is doubled to diagnose whether an increasing concentration of Asian aerosols over the western United States will lead to further impacts on the cloud and precipitation processes over California. We also perform sensitivity studies where the aerosols will be partitioned into dust-only and pollution-only in order to separate the impacts of the differing Asian aerosol species. The results of our WRF-Chem model simulations aim to show that the trans-Pacific transport of Asian aerosols influence the precipitation associated with atmospheric river events that can ultimately impact the regional climate of the western United States. 1 University

Naeger, Aaron R.↗

Weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization

The spectrum of weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space is discussed with emphasis on the requirements for wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data. It is shown that winds are required to realistically depict all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. A concept for achieving this through a combination of Lidar cloud top heights and IR cloud top temperatures of cloud streets formed during cold air outbreaks over the warmer ocean is outlined. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperatures, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption Lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. An alternative approach to Doppler Lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant heights, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space Lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described.

Atlas, D.↗

Mars, Always Cold, Sometimes Wet: New Constraints on Mars Denudation Rates and Climate Evolution from Analog Studies at Haughton Crater, Devon Island, High Arctic

Analysis of crater modification on Mars and at Haughton Crater, Devon Island, High Arctic, which was recently shown to be significantly older than previously believed (Eocene age instead of Miocene) [1], suggest that Mars may have never been climatically wet and warm for geological lengths of time during and since the Late Noachian. Impact structures offer particularly valuable records of the evolution of a planet s climate and landscape through time. The state of exposure and preservation of impact structures and their intracrater fill provide clues to the nature, timing, and intensity of the processes that have modified the craters since their formation. Modifying processes include weathering, erosion, mantling, and infilling. In this study, we compare the modification of Haughton through time with that of impact craters in the same size class on Mars. We derive upper limits for time-integrated denudation rates on Mars during and since the Late Noachian. These rates are significantly lower than previously published and provide important constraints for Mars climate evolution.

Lee, Pascal↗

Newly Identified Climatically and Environmentally Significant High-Latitude Dust Sources

Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth’s systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥ 0.5), very high (SI ≥ 0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥ 0.9) for dust emission cover > 1 670 000 km 2 , > 560 000 km 2 , and > 240 000 km 2 , respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥ 60◦ N), land area with SI ≥ 0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km 2 ), area with SI ≥ 0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km 2 ), and area with SI ≥ 0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km 2 ). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50◦ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58◦ N in Eurasia and 50–55◦ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60◦ N in Eurasia and north of 58◦ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.

high latitude dust↗

Quantifying Tropopause-Overshooting Volume from Satellite and Radar Observations During the DCOTSS 2021 and 2022 Campaigns

Tropopause-overshooting cloud locations, their volume, and the percentage of anvil cloud occupied by overshooting were quantified from state-of-the-art merged NEXRAD radar and GOES-16/17 satellite products during the 2021 and 2022 Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) study periods. A novel method for defining and tracking large individual storms or storm outbreak objects in space and time was presented, which enabled improved understanding of the complex feature-specific biases among GOES- and GridRad-derived overshooting metrics. GOES overshooting cloud top height was estimated using a stratospheric lapse rate approach informed by GOES visible and IR measurements of shadows from OTs and calibrated based on previously observed maximum GridRad overshooting distribution. Total overshooting volumes derived over CONUS are higher for GOES than GridRad for both years, especially during 2021. Over all storm outbreak objects with observed overshooting, GOES observed higher overshooting percentages while GridRad observed relatively higher overshooting magnitudes. The greater spatial coverage of GOES overshooting, especially noticeable during the mature and dissipation stages of outbreaks due to inherent limitations of infrared satellite data which make it difficult to differentiate cold, high-altitude outflow from true updraft cores, outweighed differences in magnitude to yield higher GOES volume. Individual events, however, revealed that the higher overshooting magnitudes observed by GridRad produce higher overshooting volumes at times. Four-dimensional trajectories of tropopause-overshooting air parcels were compared 5 days after overshooting occurred to depict the envelope of convectively impacted air in the stratosphere. The generally good agreement in parcel plume area initiated from GOES and GridRad overshooting detections suggests that geostationary satellite data can be used to estimate where and how often overshooting impacts stratospheric composition in regions without a ground-based weather radar network to estimate climate impacts of overshooting convection.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Corrosion Embrittlement of Duralumin V : Results of Weather-Exposure Tests

In a series of weather exposure tests of sheet duralumin, upon which accelerated corrosion tests in the laboratory by the wet-and-dry corrosion method in a sodium chloride solution has already been carried out, a close parallelism between the results of the two kinds of tests was found to exist. The exposure tests showed that the lack of permanence of sheet duralumin is largely, if not entirely, due to corrosion. A corrosion attack of an intercrystalline nature is very largely responsible for the degree of embrittlement produced. The rate of embrittlement was greatly accelerated by a marine atmosphere and by the tropical climate. Variations in corrosion and embrittlement are noted in relation to heat treatment, cold working, and types of protective coatings.

Rawdon, Henry S↗

Numerical Simulations of the Evolution of the CO2 Atmosphere of Mars: 4.53 Ga to the Present

In this paper we approach four key questions that are central to our understanding of the nature of climate change on Mars: 1. By what mechanism has the evolution of the CO2 atmosphere, dominated at early times by violent process, been guided to the moderate quantities present today? 2.How do obliquity cycles affect the migration of CO2 between the various reservoirs of CO2, and what effect does this have on the bulk atmosphere of the planet in time? 3. Is the geophysical evidence that the last few Myr experienced periods that are substantially wetter than the present attributable to a substantially more massive greenhouse atmosphere? 4. Is the current atmospheric pressure determined primarily by the partial pressure of CO2 in cold (approx. 148 K) ice caps, or is it because disequilibrium water, and hence weathering, ceases at pressures below the triple point of water?

C V Manning↗

Evaluating and Exploring Extreme Precipitation in CHIRPS3, CHIMES, and the Climate Hazards Station Database

Between 2015 and 2019, the impacts and losses associated with droughts, floods, and hurricanes surged through the interaction of increasing exposure and more extreme weather and climate (Funk 2021). In 2020, the Aon-Benfield Reinsurance Company reported that cyclones, floods, and droughts resulted in $165 billion (USD) in losses. For 2020, EM-DAT lists 363 flood, landslide, storm, and drought events impacting some 98 million people. As hazards mount, models indicate more variable precipitation, and observations indicate increasing extremes in humid regions, yet the small number of available gauge observations is declining. In this talk we briefly introduce two new resources: version 3 of the 1981-near present Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS3) archive, and the 2000-near present Climate Hazards IMErg with Stations archive (CHIMES). The satellite-only CHIRP3 and CHIME components are based, respectively, on geostationary thermal infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) values and the NASA GPM IMERGlate product. These archives benefit from thousands of station observations. In addition to standard global sources, the Climate Hazards station database includes about 5,000 additional stations in humid tropical and sub-tropical areas associated with likely increases in extreme rainfall. While effectively monitoring extreme precipitation is important to humanitarian agencies like FEWS NET, and to hydrologic modeling applications (a, b), evaluations of the widely used CHIRPS2 product indicate a propensity to underestimate extremes. Here, we explain the source of this problem. Then, focusing on pentad totals in 12 well-gauged regions, we use the high-quality gauge-based REGEN dataset to show that CHIRP3 and CHIME perform substantially better than CHIRP2. We examine trends in extremes in these validation regions, comparing REGEN results with values from the satellite-only CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME and the gauge-enhanced CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME. Trends in dry and humid regions are contrasted and compared. We conclude with global evaluations of the pentad CHIRP3, CHIRPS3, CHIME, CHIMES, and Climate Hazards station database products. How does the performance of the shorter period of record CHIME compare with CHIRP3? We anticipate that the sophisticated microwave-based IMERGlate inputs into CHIME will perform better. Where do we see the largest increases in extremes in these products? How well might CHIRPS3 and CHIMES perform in the context of humanitarian assistance efforts?

C Funk↗