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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Photoelectrons and Solar Ionizing Radiation at Mars: Predictions Versus MAVEN Observations

Understanding the evolution of the Martian atmosphere requires knowledge of processes transforming solar irradiance into thermal energy well enough to model them accurately. Here we compare Martian photoelectron energy spectra measured at periaps is by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution MissioN (MAVEN) with calculations made using three photoelectron production codes and three solar irradiance models as well as modeled and measured CO2 densities. We restricted our comparisons to regions where the contribution from solar wind electrons and ions were negligible. The two intervals examined on 19 October 2014 have different observed incident solar irradiance spectra. In spite of the differences in photoionization cross sections and irradiance spectra used, we find the agreement between models to be within the combined uncertainties associated with the observations from the MAVEN neutral density, electron flux, and solar irradiance instruments.

solar ionizing↗

Combined Error and Uncertainty Estimates for CFD Problems

Given input sources of uncertainty, non-intrusive uncertainty propagation methods quantify the uncertainty in output quantities of interest (QoI) by performing a nite number of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) instance realizations needed in the calculation of output statistics. It is well known that this introduces multiple sources of error. CFD codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation (grids, basis functions, etc.) thus incurring CFD numerical errors often approximately reinterpreted as a statistical bias. Uncertainty propagation methods calculate uncertainty statistics for output quantities of interest using a numerical method (e.g. deterministic quadrature, sampling, etc.) thus incurring UQ (Uncertainty Quantification) numerical errors. Importance of quantifying these errors in large scale scientific computing: How accurate is an output statistic?; How should additional computational resources be invested to further reduce the error in a statistic?

Posteriori↗

Predicted occultations by Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto 1985-1990

Predictions are presented for 54 occultations by Uranus' ring system, 24 occultations by Uranus, 22 occultations by Neptune, and ten possible occultations by Pluto during the period 1985 through 1990. Notable occultations by Uranus occur 24 May 1985, 16 April 1987, 27 May 1990, 21 June 1990, and 7 August 1990. The best Neptune occultations are on 7 June 1985 and 25 May 1990. Of the Pluto events, there are six which are nominally observable somewhere on the earth, although uncertainties in Pluto's position combined with uncertainties in the star positions preclude prediction of a ground track until just before the events.

Mink, D. J.↗

Cryogenic System for Interferometry of High-precision Optics at 20 K: Design and Performance

This report describes the facility and experimental methods at the Goddard Space Flight Center Optics Branch for the measurement of the surface figure of cryogenically-cooled spherical mirrors using standard phase-shifting interferometry, with a standard uncertainty below 2nm rms. Two developmental silicon carbide mirrors were tested: both were spheres with radius of curvature of 600 mm, and clear apertures of 150 mm. The mirrors were cooled within a cryostat, and the surface figure error measured through a fused-silica window. The GSFC team developed methods to measure the in-situ SFE at 20 K with a combined standard uncertainty below 2 nm rms and the change in SFE with temperature (the cryochange) with a combined standard uncertainty of 0.25 -- 0.75 nm rms. This paper will present the measurement facility, methods, and uncertainty analysis.

Blake,Peter↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Sonic Boom Levels Measured in a Simulator at NASA Langley

A sonic boom simulator has been constructed at NASA Langley Research Center for testing the human response to sonic booms heard indoors. Like all measured quantities, sonic boom levels in the simulator are subject to systematic and random errors. To quantify these errors, and their net influence on the measurement result, a formal uncertainty analysis is conducted. Knowledge of the measurement uncertainty, or range of values attributable to the quantity being measured, enables reliable comparisons among measurements at different locations in the simulator as well as comparisons with field data or laboratory data from other simulators. The analysis reported here accounts for acoustic excitation from two sets of loudspeakers: one loudspeaker set at the facility exterior that reproduces the exterior sonic boom waveform and a second set of interior loudspeakers for reproducing indoor rattle sounds. The analysis also addresses the effect of pressure fluctuations generated when exterior doors of the building housing the simulator are opened. An uncertainty budget is assembled to document each uncertainty component, its sensitivity coefficient, and the combined standard uncertainty. The latter quantity will be reported alongside measurement results in future research reports to indicate data reliability.

Rathsam, Jonathan↗

How to combine probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties in fuzzy control

Fuzzy control is a methodology that translates natural-language rules, formulated by expert controllers, into the actual control strategy that can be implemented in an automated controller. In many cases, in addition to the experts' rules, additional statistical information about the system is known. It is explained how to use this additional information in fuzzy control methodology.

Nguyen, Hung T.↗

Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel Reconstruction Using an Extended Kalman Filter Framework

- Problem Statement: - Magnetic Suspension Balance System (MSBS) allows operation of wind tunnels without sting effect - Small-scale MSBS system has been demonstrated; NASA is building a full-scale MSBS wind tunnel for supersonic speeds - MSBS testing can provide data that addresses mission needs; current data reconstruction methods do not combine all measurement data - Reconstruction methods for aerodynamic coefficients and their uncertainties are piecemeal, and in their infancy - Mission Need: - Enhancement of Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology during atmospheric flight is a top priority - Accurate dynamic aerodynamic coefficients are necessary for stability and control of entry vehicles - Goal: - Develop an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based framework to do reduction of MSBS data that will estimate aerodynamics, trajectory, and uncertainty information, combining data sources from the tunnel

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

Determining the Primary Sources of Uncertainty in Retrieval of Marine Remote Sensing Reflectance From Satellite Ocean Color Sensors

Uncertainties in the retrieval of the remote sensing reflectance, R_rs, from Ocean Color (OC) satellite sensors have a strong impact on the performance of algorithms for the estimation of chlorophyll-a, mineral concentrations, and inherent optical properties (IOPs). The uncertainties are highest in the blue bands. The total radiance measured at the top of the atmosphere captures the instantaneous state of the atmosphere-ocean system: the in-water conditions, sky and Sun glint reflected from the wind-roughened ocean surface, as well as light scattered from molecules and aerosols in the atmosphere. Each of these components has associated uncertainties, and when combined with the additional uncertainties from the instrument noise and the atmospheric correction process, they contribute to the total uncertainty budget for the retrieved R_rs. We analyzed the contribution of each component uncertainties to the total R_rs uncertainties in SNPP-VIIRS level 2 products, taking advantage of the spectral differences between the components. We examined multiple scenes in the open ocean and coastal waters at spatial resolutions ranging from 2250 to 5250 m by comparing the retrieved R_rs to in situ measurements made at several AERONET-OC sites and at the MOBY site. It was shown that uncertainties associated with the molecular (Rayleigh) scattering play the most significant role, while the contributions of other components are usually smaller. Uncertainties in Rayleigh scattering are primarily attributed to the variability of Rayleigh optical thickness (ROT) with a standard deviation of approximately 1.5% of ROT, which can largely explain the frequency of negative R_rs retrievals as observed using the current standard atmospheric correction process employed by NASA. Variability of the sky light reflected from the ocean surface in some conditions also contributed to uncertainties in the blue; water variability proportional to R_rs had a very pronounced peak in the green at coastal sites.

remote sensing reflectance↗

Issues in protection from galactic cosmic rays

Radiation risks to astronauts depend on the microscopic fluctuations of energy absorption events in specific tissues. These fluctuations depend not only on the space environment but also on the modifications of that environment by the shielding provided by structures surrounding the astronauts and the attenuation characteristics of the astronaut's body. The effects of attenuation within the shield and body depends on the tissue biological response to these microscopic fluctuations. In the absence of an accepted method for estimating astronaut risk, we examined the attenuation characteristics using conventional linear energy transfer (LET)-dependent quality factors (as one means of representing relative biological effectiveness, RBE) and a track-structure repair model to fit cell transformation (and inactivation) data in the C3H10 T1/2 mouse cell system obtained for various ion beams. Although the usual aluminum spacecraft shield is effective in reducing dose equivalent with increasing shield thickness, cell transformation rates are increased for thin aluminum shields. Clearly, the exact nature of the biological response to LET and track width is critical to evaluation of biological protection factors provided by a shield design. A significant fraction of biological injury results from the LET region above 100 keV/mu m. Uncertainty in nuclear cross-sections results in a factor of 2-3 in the transmitted LET spectrum beyond depths of 15 g/cm2, but even greater uncertainty is due to the combined effects of uncertainty in biological response and nuclear parameters. Clearly, these uncertainties must be reduced before the shield design can be finalised.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗

LOFTID Aeroshell Thermal Response Uncertainty Analysis Utilizing the End-to-End Monte Carlo Approach

A probabilistic thermal margin process has been performed to design the flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) and select entry trajectory constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of and Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) project. Uncertainties exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the predicted thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. Entry vehicle TPS is often over-sized to mitigate uncertainty by combining conservative bounding scenarios together. The probabilistic thermal margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, flight design, and FTPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive FTPS margin from being applied. This paper describes the uncertainty analysis methodology used to carry out a probabilistic thermal margin process used for LOFTID’s aeroshell and explains how the calculated probability of exceeding flight allowable temperatures is used to design the FTPS and establish nominal flight design constraints. This probabilistic thermal margin process had never been applied to entry, decent, and landing design for a flown entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven Andrew Tobin↗

Estimation of Sea Ice Thickness Distributions through the Combination of Snow Depth and Satellite Laser Altimetry Data

Combinations of sea ice freeboard and snow depth measurements from satellite data have the potential to provide a means to derive global sea ice thickness values. However, large differences in spatial coverage and resolution between the measurements lead to uncertainties when combining the data. High resolution airborne laser altimeter retrievals of snow-ice freeboard and passive microwave retrievals of snow depth taken in March 2006 provide insight into the spatial variability of these quantities as well as optimal methods for combining high resolution satellite altimeter measurements with low resolution snow depth data. The aircraft measurements show a relationship between freeboard and snow depth for thin ice allowing the development of a method for estimating sea ice thickness from satellite laser altimetry data at their full spatial resolution. This method is used to estimate snow and ice thicknesses for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from ICESat, snow depth data over first-year ice from AMSR-E, and snow depth over multiyear ice from climatological data. Due to the non-linear dependence of heat flux on ice thickness, the impact on heat flux calculations when maintaining the full resolution of the ICESat data for ice thickness estimates is explored for typical winter conditions. Calculations of the basin-wide mean heat flux and ice growth rate using snow and ice thickness values at the 70 m spatial resolution of ICESat are found to be approximately one-third higher than those calculated from 25 km mean ice thickness values.

Kurtz, Nathan T.↗

Estimating Mangrove Aboveground Biomass from Airborne LiDAR Data: a Case Study from the Zambezi River Delta

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forested wetlands with the highest carbon (C) density of all terrestrial ecosystems. Because of their exceptionally large C stocks and importance as a coastal buffer, their protection and restoration has been proposed as an effective mitigation strategy for climate change. The inclusion of mangroves in mitigation strategies requires the quantification of C stocks (both above and belowground) and changes to accurately calculate emissions and sequestration. A growing number of countries are becoming interested in using mitigation initiatives, such as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), in these unique coastal forests. However, it is not yet clear how methods to measure C traditionally used for other ecosystems can be modified to estimate biomass in mangroves with the precision and accuracy needed for these initiatives. Airborne Lidar (ALS) data has often been proposed as the most accurate way for larger scale assessments but the application of ALS for coastal wetlands is scarce, primarily due to a lack of contemporaneous ALS and field measurements. Here, we evaluated the variability in field and Lidar-based estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) through the combination of different local and regional allometric models and standardized height metrics that are comparable across spatial resolutions and sensor types, the end result being a simplified approach for accurately estimating mangrove AGB at large scales and determining the uncertainty by combining multiple allometric models.We then quantified wall-to-wall AGB stocks of a tall mangrove forest in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Our results indicate that the Lidar H100 height metric correlates well with AGB estimates, with R(exp 2) between 0.80 and 0.88 and RMSE of 33% or less. When comparing Lidar H100 AGB derived from three allometric models, mean AGB values range from 192 Mg ha(exp −1) up to 252 Mg ha(exp −1).We suggest the best model to predict AGB was based on the East Africa specific allometry and a power-based regression that used Lidar H100 as the height input with an R(exp 2) of 0.85 and an RMSE of 122 Mg ha(exp −1) or 33%. The total AGB of the Lidar inventoried mangrove area (6654 ha) was 1 350 902 Mg with a mean AGB of 203 Mg ha(exp −1) +/-166 Mg ha(exp −1). Because the allometry suggested here was developed using standardized height metrics, it is recommended that the models can generate AGB estimates using other remote sensing instruments that are more readily accessible over other mangrove ecosystems on a large scale, and as part of future carbon monitoring efforts in mangroves.

Fatoyinbo, Temilola↗

Summertime partitioning and budget of NO(y) compounds in the troposphere over Alaska and Canada: ABLE 3B

As part of NASA's Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition 3A and 3B field measurement programs, measurements of NO(x), HNO3, PAN, PPN, and NO(y) were made in the middle to lower troposphere over Alaska and Canada during the summers of 1988 and 1990. These measurements are used to assess the degree of closure within the reactive odd nitrogen (N(x)O(y)) budget through the comparison of the values of NO(y) measured with a catalytic convertor to the sum of individually measured NO(y) (i) compounds (i.e., sigmaNO(y)(i) = NO(x) + HNO3 + PAN + PPN). Significant differences were observed between the various study regions. In the lower 6 km of the troposphere over Alaska and the Hudson Bay lowlands of Canada a significant fraction of the NO(y) budget (30 to 60%) could not be accounted for by the measured sigmaNO(y)i. This deficit in the NO(y) budget is about 100 to 200 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) in the lower troposphere (0.15 to 3 km) and about 200 to 400 pptv in the middle free troposphere (3 to 6.2 km). Conversely, the NO(y) budget in the northern Labrador and Quebec regions of Canada is almost totally accounted for within the combined measurement uncertainties of NO(y) and the various NO(y)(i) compounds. A substantial portion of the NO(y) budget's 'missing compounds' appears to be coupled to the photochemical and/or dynamical parameters influencing the tropospheric oxidative potential over these regions. A combination of factors are suggested as the causes for the variability observed in the NO(y) budget. In addition, the apparent stability of compounds represented by the NO(y) budget deficit in the lower-altitude range questions the ability of these compounds to participate as reversible reservoirs for 'active' odd nitrogen and suggest that some portion of the NO(y) budget may consist of relatively unreactive nitrogen-containing compounds.

Sandholm, S.↗

Formaldehyde Distribution over North America: Implications for Satellite Retrievals of Formaldehyde Columns and Isoprene Emission

Formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured from space provide constraints on emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Quantitative interpretation requires characterization of errors in HCHO column retrievals and relating these columns to VOC emissions. Retrieval error is mainly in the air mass factor (AMF) which relates fitted backscattered radiances to vertical columns and requires external information on HCHO, aerosols, and clouds. Here we use aircraft data collected over North America and the Atlantic to determine the local relationships between HCHO columns and VOC emissions, calculate AMFs for HCHO retrievals, assess the errors in deriving AMFs with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and draw conclusions regarding space-based mapping of VOC emissions. We show that isoprene drives observed HCHO column variability over North America; HCHO column data from space can thus be used effectively as a proxy for isoprene emission. From observed HCHO and isoprene profiles we find an HCHO molar yield from isoprene oxidation of 1.6 +/- 0.5, consistent with current chemical mechanisms. Clouds are the primary error source in the AMF calculation; errors in the HCHO vertical profile and aerosols have comparatively little effect. The mean bias and 1Q uncertainty in the GEOS-Chem AMF calculation increase from <1% and 15% for clear skies to 17% and 24% for half-cloudy scenes. With fitting errors, this gives an overall 1 Q error in HCHO satellite measurements of 25-31%. Retrieval errors, combined with uncertainties in the HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation, result in a 40% (1sigma) error in inferring isoprene emissions from HCHO satellite measurements.

Millet, Dylan B.↗

A Simple, Velocity Dependent, Collision Probability Algorithm for Small Combined Hard Body Radii Close Approach Events

Over the last few years progress has been made in the velocity dependent collision probability problem. Recent progress in this problem has been approached via integration of the probability flux into the surface of the combined hard body object. The algorithm presented uses the surface flux approach and is designed to compute the collision probability rate between two objects given their time dependent states and state error covariance matrices. With regards to the computation of the collision probability (Pc) rate, two major differences exist between the development of this algorithm and the usual Pc algorithm. First, the shape of the at-risk volume is assumed to be a cube rather than a sphere. The size of the cube is chosen so that it circumscribes the usual hard body sphere chosen for the spherical Pc problem. This will result in half the length of a side of the cube being equal to the hard body radius (HBR) of the sphere. Second, it is assumed that the HBR of the cube is much smaller than the smallest combined position uncertainty (σ(sub min) > 5*HBR) at each time point of evaluation. This is necessary as the actual collision probability calculation is based on a first order, small variable expansion in the position components of the Gaussian probability density function. This leads to the collision probability rate being to second order in the combined HBR. The collision probability rate is in a concise, closed form containing exponential and error functions.

Frisbee, Joe↗

An Example Crossover Experiment for Testing New Vicarious Calibration Techniques for Satellite Ocean Color Radiometry

Vicarious calibration of ocean color satellites involves the use of accurate surface measurements of water-leaving radiance to update and improve the system calibration of ocean color satellite sensors. An experiment was performed to compare a free-fall technique with the established MOBY measurement. We found in the laboratory that the radiance and irradiance instruments compared well within their estimated uncertainties for various spectral sources. The spectrally averaged differences between the NIST values for the sources and the instruments were less than 2.5% for the radiance sensors and less than 1.5% for the irradiance sensors. In the field, the sensors measuring the above-surface downwelling irradiance performed nearly as well as they had in the laboratory, with an average difference of less than 2%. While the water-leaving radiance, L(sub w) calculated from each instrument agreed in almost all cases within the combined instrument uncertainties (approximately 7%), there was a relative bias between the two instrument classes/techniques that varied spectrally. The spectrally averaged (400 nm to 600 nm) difference between the two instrument classes/techniques was 3.1 %. However the spectral variation resulted in the free fall instruments being 0.2% lower at 450 nm and 5.9% higher at 550 nm. Based on the analysis of one matchup, the bias in the L(sub w), was similar to that observed for L(sub u)(1 m) with both systems, indicating the difference did not come from propagating L(sub u)(1 m) to L(sub w).

Voss, Kenneth J.↗

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗

Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

MERRA↗