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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Double-differential Measurements of Mesonless Charged-current Muon Neutrino Interactions on Argon with Final-State Protons using the MicroBooNE Detector

This note reports the first double-differential measurements of charged-current $ν_µ$ scattering on argon leading to final states containing zero mesons and one or more protons. This event topology (hereafter abbreviated as CC0$πNp$) is the most common at the neutrino energies typically produced by the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam. A detailed understanding of neutrino-argon scattering in the CC0$πNp$ channel is therefore crucial for the success of the precision neutrino oscillation analyses planned for the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program. This remains true for the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), but the higher mean neutrino energy used there will ensure that more inelastic reaction modes, such as single pion production, will also play a major role. The analysis described in this note builds on a previous MicroBooNE study of the CC0$πNp$ channel which obtained the first single-differential cross-section measurements on an argon target. Since that foundational work, significant improvements have been made to MicroBooNE’s simulation software, event reconstruction algorithms, and procedure for calculating systematic uncertainties. When combined with a larger dataset (corresponding to a beam exposure of 6.79 × 10 20 protons-on-target versus 1.60 × 10 20 in Ref. [3]), these enhancements allow the important CC0$πNp$ channel to be studied in more detail. This note begins with a description of the data and simulation samples used as input to the analysis. Section 3 then defines the CC0$πNp$ signal event topology, and Section 4 describes a set of selection criteria designed to identify these events in MicroBooNE data. Binning schemes are then defined in Section 5 for two double-differential measurements of event rates. The first of these considers the momentum and scattering cosine of the outgoing muon, while the second reports the same observables for the leading proton, i.e., the final-state proton with the largest momentum. After a discussion of systematic uncertainties in Section 6, the note concludes by comparing the predictions of MicroBooNE Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to the measured double-differential distributions. These results will form the basis for a future extraction of flux-averaged double-differential CC0$πNp$ cross sections that will be immediately comparable to the theoretical predictions of multiple neutrino event generators. The selection described herein may also be used to study various other observables in CC0$πNp$ events, including those which are sensitive to correlations between leptonic and hadronic kinematics in the final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Uncertainty Analysis and Software Verification

Uncertainty analyses are an important part of calibrations and testing. They allow researchers insight on how to reduce and mitigate errors in testing. Each device used in testing introduces error in a system, as well as other sources such as environmental conditions, electronics, analog to digital, and random errors. Each source is carefully examined to identify how much error it introduces to a system. These sources are then combined using various methods of uncertainty calculations. To verify and validate software, a manual calculation is required to ensure the software is performing as intended. Using Excel to verify the calculations, we can identify discrepancies within the software. The root of the sum of the squares uncertainty (RSS) is used to find the combined uncertainty of a device at one and two standard deviations of the mean. Calibrations on accelerometers are performed using a vibration system along with a back-toback reference accelerometer. The vibration system takes a reference point at 100Hz frequency at 10g amplitude. The sensitivities are collected at each dialed in frequency. The sensitivity of the device represents the electrical output of the UUT (mV, pC, etc.) per unit of acceleration (g). The full history of sensitivities of selected accelerometers are used to find the averaged, standard deviation, and uncertainty of the device at each frequency tested. The uncertainty calculations from excel and the software are then compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Speed of Sound Measurements of R-1130(E) and an Azeotropic Blend of R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E)

Sound speed data measured using a dual-path pulse-echo instrument are reported for pure trans-1,2-dichloroethene (R-1130(E)) and an azeotropic blend of cis-1,1,1,4,4,4-hexafluorobutene (R-1336mzz(Z)) and R-1130(E) with a composition of 74.8 mass % R-1336mzz(Z) with the balance being R-1130(E). The azeotropic blend of R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E) is classified as R-514A in ANSI/ASHRAE standard 34. Liquid phase speed of sound data are reported from just above the saturation pressure of pure R-1130(E) or the bubble point pressure of R-514A to a maximum pressure of 26.7 MPa. The relative combined expanded uncertainty in the speed of sound varies from 0.032 % to 0.148 % with the greatest deviations occurring at the lowest sound speeds. At present, no reference Helmholtz-energy-explicit equation of state (EOS) is available for R-1130(E). Therefore, the reported data for pure R-1130(E) are compared to an extended corresponding states (ECS) model. Deviations between the pure R-1130(E) sound speed data and the ECS model were found to be consistently negative ranging between − 4.1 % and − 3.5 %. The R-514A data are compared to a multifluid model inclusive of the established reference Helmholtz-energy-explicit EOS for R-1336mzz(Z) and ECS model for R-1130(E) with estimated binary interaction parameters. Deviations between the experimental speed of sound data and the multifluid model were also found to be consistently negative. However, deviations from the multifluid model were found to be as great as − 17.1 %. The large deviations from the ECS model and multifluid model underscore the need for a robust Helmholtz-energy-explicit EOS for R-1130(E).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Collaborative Study for Certification of Trace Elements in Uranium Ore Concentrate CRMs UCLO-1, UCHI-1, and UPER-1

Trace impurity patterns are important nuclear forensic signatures in uranium ore concentrates (UOCs) and Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) are used to validate the analysis methods employed by end users. Herein, we discuss the certification campaign for three new UOC CRMs from the National Research Council Canada: UCLO-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uclo-1), UCHI-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uchi-1), and UPER-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uper-1). This study involved 15 laboratories from 10 countries, using sector-field and (triple) quadrupole inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry to analyze 64 trace element impurities. We discuss the importance of the acids used for sample digestion, difficulties analyzing in a high uranium matrix, and data combination and uncertainty evaluation for this large dataset.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A unified realization of electrical quantities from the quantum International System of Units

In the revised International System of Units (SI), the ohm and the volt are realized from the von Klitzing constant and the Josephson constant, and a practical realization of the ampere is possible by applying Ohm’s law directly to the quantum Hall and Josephson effects. As a result, it is possible to create an instrument capable of realizing all three primary electrical units, but the development of such a system remains challenging. Here, in this study, we report a unified realization of the volt, ohm and ampere by integrating a quantum anomalous Hall resistor (QAHR) and a programmable Josephson voltage standard (PJVS) in a single cryostat. Our system has a quantum voltage output that ranges from 0.24 mV to 6.5 mV with combined relative uncertainties down to 3 μV V −1 . The QAHR provides a realization of the ohm at zero magnetic field with uncertainties near 1 μΩ Ω −1 . We use the QAHR to convert a longitudinal current to a quantized Hall voltage and then directly compare that against the PJVS to realize the ampere. We determine currents in the range of 9.33–252 nA, and our lowest uncertainty is 4.3 μA A −1 at 83.9 nA. For other current values, a systematic error that ranges from −10 μA A −1 to −30 μA A −1 is present due to the imperfect isolation of the PJVS microwave bias.

Quantum metrology↗

A Unified Scaling Framework for Comparative Analysis of Major Electrical Machine Topologies

This paper presents a unified framework for comparing major electrical machine topologies under identical output and thermal constraints, with emphasis on supply-chain-aware selection among rare-earth-intensive, reduced-rare-earth, and rare-earth-free solutions. Using power factor and air-gap flux density as the principal descriptors, the framework links topology choice to relative size, copper demand, magnet dependence, cost sensitivity, and inertia. To support robust early-stage screening, the deterministic scaling model is combined with uncertainty representation, Monte Carlo scenario propagation, and hesitationaware ranking. The results show that rare-earth-rich machines remain compact and dense, whereas reduced-rare-earth and rare-earth-free alternatives become more attractive under specific material-risk and cost scenarios.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SILICON CARBIDE THERMOMETRY USING RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY ON IRRADIATED TRISO PARTICLES

Silicon carbide (SiC) passive thermometry has emerged as a promising post-irradiation examination (PIE) technique for estimating irradiation temperature near the end of irradiation. While dilatometry techniques have been traditionally used to analyze prismatic samples after irradiation, Raman spectroscopy has recently been shown to provide comparable results by analyzing Raman-active phonon modes. In this work, Raman spectroscopy has been applied to the SiC layer of cross-sectioned irradiation tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles from the AGR-5/6/7 experiment to evaluate the feasibility of particle-scale passive thermometry. Two-dimensional Raman mapping was used to measure the position of the SiC longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which was then converted to an apparent irradiation temperature using a previously established empirical correlation. Particles from AGR-5/6/7 Compacts 2-2-1 and 5-1-3 were selected as their calculated time-averaged, volume-averaged (TAVA) temperatures (828°C and 706°C, respectively) fall within the range of the sensitivity of the experimental approach. The use of SiC thermometry was anticipated to confirm or highlight potential deviations from calculated end-of-life TAVA temperature across compacts. Four particles from Compact 2-2-1 and two particles from Compact 5-1-3 were selected based on 110mAg inventory (either some measurable activity or below the minimum detection limit) which is commonly used as an indicator of in-pile temperature variation of particles within the same compact. Across every particle selected it was determined that the average LO peak position was located around 968 cm-1 to 969 cm-1. Using the previously determined empirical correlation, this corresponds to an irradiation temperature around 950°C to 966°C, which does not align with the reported TAVA temperature values. This discrepancy in apparent irradiation temperatures likely reflects a combination of uncertainties in the calculated particle temperatures and differences in irradiation history between the present specimens and those used to establish the empirical Raman calibration such as neutron flux (damage rate) and SiC microstructure (as fabricated and irradiated).

Vawdrey, Josh [ORNL]↗

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency at the Muon g − 2 Experiment at Fermilab

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_\mu = \frac{g-2}{2}$ is the fractional deviation of the muon $g$-factor from the value of 2. It emerges as the cumulative effect of the virtual particles participating in the muon interaction with a magnetic field via quantum loop corrections. Its value encodes all the possible interactions between the virtual particles and, for this reason, represents an important test of the Standard Model (SM). In particular, any deviation from the SM theoretical evaluation could be due to new physics contributions. The new Muon $g-2$ (E989) Experiment at Fermilab is currently operating to repeat and improve the previous E821 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), aiming to reduce the experimental error by a factor of 4 to the final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). On April 7th, 2021, the E989 collaboration published the first result based on the first year of data taking (Run-1), measuring $a_\mu = 0.001~165~920~40(54)$ with a precision of 460 ppb. The measured value is consistent with the BNL measurement and strengthens the long-standing tension with the data-driven SM prediction to a combined discrepancy of 4.2$\sigma$. On the theory side, however, new efforts involving lattice-QCD techniques are starting to question the current consensus on the theoretical prediction, demanding new improvements on both the experimental and theoretical sides. The E989 collaboration is now finalizing the analysis of Run-2 and Run-3 data and a new publication is expected in the first half of 2023 with a combined statistical uncertainty of 200 ppb. The anomalous magnetic moment $a_\mu$ is measured as the ratio between the muon spin anomalous precession frequency, $\omega_a$, and the average magnetic field experienced by the muons as they circulate in the storage ring. This thesis presents a precession frequency analysis of the Run-1 data and an evaluation of the related systematic uncertainties. A new positron reconstruction developed for the analysis of the subsequent data-taking periods, aiming to reduce some of the major systematic uncertainties of the $\omega_a$ measurement, is presented. The author's involvement in the production of the Run-2/5 data and in the precise calibration of the detectors is discussed. Finally, the complete Run-1 $a_\mu$ result is presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon $g-2$ experiment measures the muon's anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon's cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the $g-2$ storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon's decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world's most precise measurement of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon $g-2$ experiment measures the muon's anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon's cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the $g-2$ storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon's decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world's most precise measurement of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in Runs 4, 5, and 6 of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon g − 2 experiment measures the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon’s cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the g − 2 storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon’s decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world’s most precise measurement of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the weak lensing source galaxies

ABSTRACT Determining the distribution of redshifts of galaxies observed by wide-field photometric experiments like the Dark Energy Survey (DES) is an essential component to mapping the matter density field with gravitational lensing. In this work we describe the methods used to assign individual weak lensing source galaxies from the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Catalogue to four tomographic bins and to estimate the redshift distributions in these bins. As the first application of these methods to data, we validate that the assumptions made apply to the DES Y3 weak lensing source galaxies and develop a full treatment of systematic uncertainties. Our method consists of combining information from three independent likelihood functions: self-organizing map p(z) (sompz), a method for constraining redshifts from galaxy photometry; clustering redshifts (WZ), constraints on redshifts from cross-correlations of galaxy density functions; and shear ratios (SRs), which provide constraints on redshifts from the ratios of the galaxy-shear correlation functions at small scales. Finally, we describe how these independent probes are combined to yield an ensemble of redshift distributions encapsulating our full uncertainty. We calibrate redshifts with combined effective uncertainties of σ〈z〉 ∼ 0.01 on the mean redshift in each tomographic bin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗