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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Generative learning for forecasting the dynamics of high-dimensional complex systems
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Mixed quantum/classical theory (MQCT) approach to the dynamics of molecule–molecule collisions in complex systems
Correlation between state-to-state transition cross-sections and energy transfer in p-H 2 O + p-H 2 at collision energyU= 12 000 cm −1 .
A restrained locally enhanced sampling method (RLES) for finding free energy minima in complex systems
Not Available
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems
Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.
Low-Complexity System and Algorithm for an Emergency Ventilator Sensor and Alarm
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Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems
An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.
Probabilistic detection of high-dimension failures in complex systems: A case study of photovoltaics.
Abstract not provided.
Efficient Bayesian Inference Approaches for Matrix and Tensor Learning: Applications to Surrogate Modeling of Complex Systems .
Abstract not provided.
Computer Simulation of Complex Systems at the Extremes of pH (Final Report)
During the final funding period of the above-mentioned grant, a number of key milestones were achieved as they relate to the Separation Science program. Below are the descriptions of those efforts and the papers published in support of them (see also submitted publication list). There was a strong focus during the final funding period was on hydrated protons and the unique properties of acidic solutions, which as pertinent to many separations processes.
State Machine Operation of Complex Systems
SQMS, affiliated with Fermilab, is one of five research centers funded by the DOE dedicated to the development and deployment of advanced quantum computers and sensors. The objective of our research was to devise an experimental design for quantum transduction, with the aim of facilitating the development of a distributed quantum network to connect quantum computers over large distances.
A Bootstrap Approach to Quantifying Reliabilities and Uncertainties of Complex Systems
While much work has been done in analyzing margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in NNSA methodology relating component level reliabilities and uncertainties to system level reliability and uncertainty. This paper shows how component level reliability data can be combined via a bootstrap analysis to estimate system level reliabilities and uncertainties. The performance of the bootstrap for this problem is validated through simulation studies. This paper extends the original work of Crowder by including sensitivity analyses related to changes in samples sizes and component failure probabilities. The use of the bootstrap as a decision-making tool is thus developed by quantifying the effect of such changes on system reliability.
Decision and Control of Complex Systems – A Data-Drive Framework
During the project period, we have collaborated with other team members and developed novel algorithms for novelty detection, continual learning, and graph learning algorithms for dynamic systems. The results are documented in publications and meeting notes. Moreover, we leverage virtual collaboration tools (such as Basecamp, Microsoft Teams and Zoom) for technical exchanges. Our research on novelty detection was published at AAAI 2022 and Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, Springer Nature. The newly developed algorithms were successfully applied to realistic cases, including thermal data from buildings at Pacific Northwest National Lab and microelectronic data provided by GlobalFoundries. Multiple publications have been produced from this project, in collaboration with other team members. Three PhD students were supported in this project to conduct their research.
A Multiplex Complex Systems Model for Engineering Security Systems.
Abstract not provided.
A Complex Systems Approach to Develop a Multilayer Network Model for High Consequence Facility Security.
Abstract not provided.
A Complex Systems Approach to Develop a Multilayer Network Model for High Consequence Facility Security-Update.
Abstract not provided.
Empirical Insights for a Multi-Layered Network Complex Systems Model for Engineering Nuclear Security Systems.
Abstract not provided.