Information transfer in complex systems, with applications to regulation Interim scientific report
Information theory and relevance to study of complex systems
Conant, R. C.↗
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Human Error In Complex Systems
Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.
Morris, Nancy M.↗
Active Learning for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems
Physics-based simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. Such codes provide the highest-fidelity representation of system behavior, but are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. For example, conducting an exhaustive sweep over a d-dimensional input parameter space with k-steps along each dimension requires k(sup d) simulation trials (translating into k(sup d) CPU-days for one of our current simulations). An alternative is directed exploration in which the next simulation trials are cleverly chosen at each step. Given the results of previous trials, supervised learning techniques (SVM, KDE, GP) are applied to build up simplified predictive models of system behavior. These models are then used within an active learning framework to identify the most valuable trials to run next. Several active learning strategies are examined including a recently-proposed information-theoretic approach. Performance is evaluated on a set of thirteen synthetic oracles, which serve as surrogates for the more expensive simulations and enable the experiments to be replicated by other researchers.
oracles↗
Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package
During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).
Smart, Christian↗
Estimating reliability of complex systems
Canonical expansion and output event techniques for estimating component probability of failure in simple and complex systems
SYSTEM FAILURE↗
Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems
A new method of robust, autonomous real-time diagnosis of a time-varying complex system (e.g., a spacecraft, an advanced aircraft, or a process-control system) is presented here. It is based upon the characterization and comparison of (1) the execution of software, as reported by discrete data, and (2) data from sensors that monitor the physical state of the system, such as performance sensors or similar quantitative time-varying measurements. By taking account of the relationship between execution of, and the responses to, software commands, this method satisfies a key requirement for robust autonomous diagnosis, namely, ensuring that control is maintained and followed. Such monitoring of control software requires that estimates of the state of the system, as represented within the control software itself, are representative of the physical behavior of the system. In this method, data from sensors and discrete command data are analyzed simultaneously and compared to determine their correlation. If the sensed physical state of the system differs from the software estimate (see figure) or if the system fails to perform a transition as commanded by software, or such a transition occurs without the associated command, the system has experienced a control fault. This method provides a means of detecting such divergent behavior and automatically generating an appropriate warning.
Gulati, Sandeep↗
New method for critical failure prediction of complex systems
Rigorous analytical technique, called criticality determination methodology /or CD technique/ determines the probability that a given complex system will successfully achieve stated objectives. The CD technique identifies critical elements of the system by a failure mode and effects analysis.
Cox, C. T.↗
A NASA initiative: Software engineering for reliable complex systems
The objective is the development of methods, technology, and skills that will enable NASA to cost-effectively specify, build, and manage reliable software which can evolve and be maintained over an extended period. The need for such software is rooted in the increasing integration of software and computing components into NASA systems. Current NASA Software Engineering expertise was applied toward some of the largest reliable systems including: shuttle launch; ground support; shuttle simulation; minor control; satellite tracking; and scientific data systems. Unfortunately, no theory exists for reliable complex software systems. NASA is seeking to fill this theoretical gap through a number of approaches. One such approach is to conduct research on theoretical foundations for managing complex software systems. It includes: communication models, new and modified paradigms, and life-cycle models. Another approach is research in the theoretical foundations for reliable software development and validation. It focuses upon formal specifications, programming languages, software engineering systems, software reuse, formal verification, and software safety. Further approaches involve benchmarking a NASA software environment, experimentation within the NASA context, evolution of present NASA methodology, and transfer of technology to the space station software support environment.
Holcomb, Lee B.↗
Solid state annunciator facilitates complex system troubleshooting
Solid state annunciator monitors up to 60 parameters for a dc voltage change from zero to 28 volts in the testing of complex systems. This annunciator is presently being used for testing of the complex J-2 rocket engine.
Hofer, H. P.↗
Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements
International Space Station (ISS) payload developers submit their payload science requirements for the development of on-board execution timelines. The ISS systems required to execute the payload science operations must be represented as constraints for the execution timeline. Payload developers use a software application, User Requirements Collection (URC), to submit their requirements by selecting a simplified representation of ISS system constraints. To fully represent the complex ISS systems, the constraints require a level of detail that is beyond the insight of the payload developer. To provide the complex representation of the ISS system constraints, HOSC operations personnel, specifically the Payload Activity Requirements Coordinators (PARC), manually translate the payload developers simplified constraints into detailed ISS system constraints used for scheduling the payload activities in the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). This paper describes the implementation for a software application, User Requirements Integration (URI), developed to automate the manual ISS constraint translation process.
Muery, Kim↗
PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study Report: Engineering for Complex Systems Program (formerly Design for Safety), DFS-IC-0006
This technology evaluation report documents the findings and recommendations of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program (formerly Design for Safety) PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study of the Space Shuttle Program's (SSP's) Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) System. A team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) performed this Study. This Study was initiated as a follow-on to the NASA chartered Shuttle Independent Assessment Team (SIAT) review (performed in the Fall of 1999) which identified deficiencies in the current PRACA implementation. The Pilot Study was launched with an initial qualitative assessment and technical review performed during January 2000 with the quantitative formal Study (the subject of this report) started in March 2000. The goal of the PRACA Enhancement Pilot Study is to evaluate and quantify the technical aspects of the SSP PRACA systems and recommend enhancements to address deficiencies and in preparation for future system upgrades.
Korsmeyer, David↗
Formal Requirements-Based Programming for Complex Systems
Computer science as a field has not yet produced a general method to mechanically transform complex computer system requirements into a provably equivalent implementation. Such a method would be one major step towards dealing with complexity in computing, yet it remains the elusive holy grail of system development. Currently available tools and methods that start with a formal model of a system and mechanically produce a provably equivalent implementation are valuable but not sufficient. The gap that such tools and methods leave unfilled is that the formal models cannot be proven to be equivalent to the system requirements as originated by the customer For the classes of complex systems whose behavior can be described as a finite (but significant) set of scenarios, we offer a method for mechanically transforming requirements (expressed in restricted natural language, or appropriate graphical notations) into a provably equivalent formal model that can be used as the basis for code generation and other transformations. While other techniques are available, this method is unique in offering full mathematical tractability while using notations and techniques that are well known and well trusted. We illustrate the application of the method to an example procedure from the Hubble Robotic Servicing Mission currently under study and preliminary formulation at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
Rash, James L.↗
Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty [Brochure]
The four priority research directions outlined in this brochure represent a cohesive vision for advancing the science of inverse problems for complex systems under uncertainty. Together, they address the critical challenges of: discovering, exploiting, and preserving physical and problem structure; overcoming model limitations; integrating disparate, multimodal, and/or dynamic data; and tailoring the solution of inverse problems to downstream tasks. While each PRD focuses on a distinct aspect of inverse-problem research, their interconnected nature highlights the importance of a holistic approach that leverages progress across all areas to achieve transformative solutions. This agenda calls for research across mathematics, statistics, and computer science disciplines, which are guided and complemented by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and experimental facilities, to unlock new capabilities, maximize scientific impact, and meet the growing demands of inverse problems that arise across applications that are critical to DOE's mission.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Monitoring and analysis of data from complex systems
Some of the methods, systems, and prototypes that have been tested for monitoring and analyzing the data from several spacecraft and vehicles at the Marshall Space Flight Center are introduced. For the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) infrastructure, the Marshall Integrated Support System (MISS) provides a migration path to the state-of-the-art workstation environment. Its modular design makes it possible to implement the system in stages on multiple platforms without the need for all components to be in place at once. The MISS provides a flexible, user-friendly environment for monitoring and controlling orbital payloads. In addition, new capabilities and technology may be incorporated into MISS with greater ease. The use of information systems technology in advanced prototype phases, as adjuncts to mainline activities, is used to evaluate new computational techniques for monitoring and analysis of complex systems. Much of the software described (specially, HSTORESIS (Hubble Space Telescope Operational Readiness Expert Safemode Investigation System), DRS (Device Reasoning Shell), DART (Design Alternatives Rational Tool), elements of the DRA (Document Retrieval Assistant), and software for the PPS (Peripheral Processing System) and the HSPP (High-Speed Peripheral Processor)) is available with supporting documentation, and may be applicable to other system monitoring and analysis applications.
Dollman, Thomas↗
Position Paper: Designing Complex Systems to Support Interdisciplinary Cognitive Work
The paper argues that the field we can call cognitive science of interdisciplinary collaboration is an important area of study for improving design of Large-Scale Complex Systems (LaCES) and supporting cognitive work. The paper mostly raised questions that have been documented in earlier qualitative analysis studies, and provided possible avenues of exploration for addressing them. There are likely further contributions from additional disciplines beyond those mentioned in this paper that should be considered and integrated into such a cognitive science framework. Knowledge and awareness of various perspectives will help to inform the types of interventions available for improving LaCES design and functionality. For example, a cognitive interpretation of interdisciplinary collaborations in LaCES elucidated the need for a "translator" or "mediator" in helping subject matter experts to transcend language boundaries, mitigate single discipline bias, support integrative activities, and correct misaligned objectives. Additional research in this direction is likely to uncover similar gaps and opportunities for improvements in practice.
Greene, Melissa T.↗
Data-Driven Decision Control for Complex Systems (DnC2S) (Final Technical Report - Award DE-SC0021321)
This final technical report summarizes the key research outcomes achieved by the University of California at Santa Barbara Team of the “Data-Driven Decision Control for Complex Systems (DnC2S)” project under award number DE-SC0021321.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Building Complex Systems
The explosion of capabilities and new products within ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has fostered widespread, overly optimistic opinions regarding the industry, based on common but unjustified assumptions of quality and correctness of software. These assumptions are encouraged by software producers and vendors, who have not succeeded in finding a way to overcome the lack of an automated, mathematically sound way to develop correct systems from requirements. NASA faces this dilemma as it envisages advanced mission concepts in future exploration missions, which may well be the most ambitious computer-based systems ever developed. Such missions entail levels of complexity that beg for new methods for system development. NASA-led research in such areas as sensor networks, formal methods, autonomic computing, and requirements-based programming (to name but a few) will offer some innovative approaches to achieving correctness in complex system development.
Hinchey, Mike↗
Computer-Assisted Monitoring Of A Complex System
Propulsion System Advisor (PSA) computer-based system assists engineers and technicians in analyzing masses of sensory data indicative of operating conditions of space shuttle propulsion system during pre-launch and launch activities. Designed solely for monitoring; does not perform any control functions. Although PSA developed for highly specialized application, serves as prototype of noncontrolling, computer-based subsystems for monitoring other complex systems like electric-power-distribution networks and factories.
Beil, Bob J.↗