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Mass and Motion, Tension and Concordance: What Are Tensions in Current Data Telling Us About Dark Energy?
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Comparison of Knee and Ankle Dynamometry between NASA's X1 Exoskeleton and Biodex System 4
Pre- and post-flight dynamometry is performed on International Space Station crewmembers to characterize microgravity-induced strength changes. Strength is not assessed in flight due to hardware limitations and there is poor understanding of the time course of in-flight changes. PURPOSE: To assess the reliability of a prototype dynamometer, the X1 Exoskeleton (EXO) and its agreement with a Biodex System 4 (BIO). METHODS: Eight subjects (4 M/4 F) completed 2 counterbalanced testing sessions of knee extension/flexion (KE/KF), 1 with BIO and 1 with EXO, with repeated measures within each session in normal gravity. Test-retest reliability (test 1 and 2) and device agreement (BIO vs. EXO) were evaluated. Later, to assess device agreement for ankle plantarflexion (PF), 10 subjects (4 M/6 F) completed 3 test conditions (BIO, EXO, and BIOEXO); BIOEXO was a hybrid condition comprised of the Biodex dynamometer motor and the X1 footplate and ankle frame. Ankle comparisons were: BIO vs. BIOEXO (footplate differences), BIOEXO vs. EXO (motor differences), and BIO vs. EXO (all differences). Reliability for KE/KF was determined by intraclass correlation (ICC). Device agreement was assessed with: 1) repeated measures ANOVA, 2) a measure of concordance (rho), and 3) average difference. RESULTS: ICCs for KE/KF were 0.99 for BIO and 0.96 to 0.99 for EXO. Agreement was high for KE (concordance: 0.86 to 0.95; average differences: -7 to +9 Nm) and low to moderate for KF (concordance: 0.64 to 0.78; average differences: -4 to -29 Nm, P<0.05). BIO vs. BIOEXO PF concordance ranged from 0.89 to 0.92 and mean differences ranged from -9 to +3 Nm (BIO < BIOEXO). BIOEXO vs. EXO PF concordance ranged from 0.73 to 0.80 while mean differences were -18 to -36 Nm (BIOEXO < EXO, P<0.05). PF concordance for BIO vs. EXO was slightly lower (0.61 to 0.84) and mean differences were greater (-27 to -33 Nm; BIO < EXO, P<0.05). CONCLUSION: BIO and EXO were similarly reliable for KE and KF. KE measures produced high agreement between devices; KF did not. For ankle PF, torque differences due to the two footplates were small. However, the X1 motor reports greater torques than the Biodex motor during PF. This first prototype provides proof of concept for a reliable, robotic-based exoskeleton to perform portable dynamometry for large muscle groups of the lower body.
Uncovering New Physics in the Cosmic Microwave Background: Developing Novel Theoretical Models and Machine-Learning-Powered Constraints
The search for evidence of new physics via its signatures in the cosmos is a cornerstone goal of the Office of High Energy Physics in the DOE Office of Science. Indeed, the current concordance cosmological model provides intriguing hints for beyond-the-standard-model (BSM) physics, such as dark matter and dark energy. Recently, a potential breakdown has appeared in this model, which could be initial evidence toward a further important revision in our fundamental theoretical understanding of cosmology. This breakdown is reflected in disagreements between inferences of the current expansion rate of the universe, H 0 (the Hubble constant), based on indirect, cosmological data (e.g., from the early universe) and based on direct, local measurements. Despite significant effort, a compelling new concordance cosmological model has yet to be found; achieving significant progress on this front was the first major focus of the project. Theoretical considerations indicate that if the observational discrepancies are not due to systematic errors, they strongly suggest new physics operating in the redshift range just prior to recombination, when cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons last scattered. Crucially, almost all such models produce unique signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra, which will be measured with unprecedented precision by ongoing and upcoming experiments, including the DOE-supported CMB-S4 project. However, these subtle hints of new physics must be uncovered from beneath a swath of Galactic and extragalactic foreground contamination. Current CMB analysis methods, although powerful, do not optimally infer the CMB power spectrum in the presence of non-Gaussian foregrounds. There is thus scope for theoretical improvement in this foundational challenge of cosmological inference, which formed the second major focus of the project. The primary objectives of the project were two-fold: (1) to develop new theoretical models in cosmology that can restore concordance amongst the full suite of cosmological data sets, thereby potentially providing evidence of novel BSM physics; (2) to develop new theoretical machinery to enable significant sensitivity improvements in searches for new physics in cosmology, particularly via the CMB power spectrum. The two objectives are intertwined, as the analysis methodology improvements in (2) will enable the tightest possible constraints on the signatures of new physics predicted by the novel scenarios in (1). The theoretical approaches to restore concordance focused on models involving novel scalar field dynamics in the pre-recombination universe (the “early dark energy” scenario and modifications thereof), as well as couplings between this field and other components in the standard cosmological model, such as dark matter. We also studied a model featuring a generalization of the decaying dark matter scenario, in which a sub-component of dark matter converts into dark radiation at late times in cosmic history. While these ideas are mostly driven by phenomenological considerations, this tactic has proven extremely successful in cosmology throughout the past few decades, including in the early history of evidence for dark matter and dark energy. The new theoretical machinery envisioned in (2) is undergirded by developments in signal processing and machine learning, which will enable improvements in CMB power spectrum estimation in the presence of non-Gaussian foreground contaminants. In turn, this will yield optimal sensitivity in searches for new physics in the CMB, by maximizing the cosmological information that is extracted from this observable. The most ambitious outcome of this work would be the construction of a new cosmological model that restores concordance amongst data sets. Although the individual models studied here did not fully achieve that goal, significant progress in narrowing down the model space was made, as described below. Moreover, the outcome of the methodological improvements in (2) will significantly impact a wide range of theoretical cosmology, by enabling the tightest possible constraints on any model that leaves novel signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra.
A second-generation supersonic transport
Ever since the advent of commercial flight vehicles, one goal of designers has been to develop aircraft that can fly faster and carry more passengers than before. After the development of practical supersonic military aircraft, this desire was naturally manifested in a search for a practical supersonic commercial aircraft. The first and, to date, only supersonic civil transport is the Concorde, manufactured by a consortium of British and French aerospace companies. Unfortunately, due to a number of factors, including low passenger capacity and limited range, the Concorde has not been an economic success. It is for this reason that there is considerable interest in developing a design for a supersonic civil transport that addresses some of the inadequacies of the Concorde. For the design of such an aircraft to be feasible in the near term, certain guidelines must be established at the outset. Based upon the experience with the Concorde, whose 100- passenger capacity is not large enough for profitable operation, a minimum capacity of 250 passengers is desired. Second, to date, because of the limited range of the Concorde, supersonic commercial flight has been restricted to trans-Atlantic routes. In order to broaden the potential market, any new design must have the capability of trans-Pacific flight. A summary of the potential markets involved is presented in Fig. 1. Also, because of both the cost and complexity involved with actively cooling an entire aircraft, an additional design constraint is that the aircraft as a whole be passively cooled. One additional design constraint is somewhat less quantitative in nature but of great importance nonetheless. Any time a new design is attempted, the tendency is to assume great strides in technology that serve as the basis for actual realization of the design. While it is not always possible to avoid this dependence on "enabling technology," since this design is desired for the near term, it is prudent, wherever possible, to rely on already existing technology. This is of particular importance with respect to support technology such as airport terminals and runways. Based on the above introductory remarks, a possible approach to the design of a second-generation supersonic civil transport is presented below. The design Mach number for this aircraft is 3.5. This value was chosen as it represents the limiting Mach number in the absence of active cooling. The ensuing design attempts to deal with the particular problems that are the most demanding, while relying on proven technology where it is adequate. The report clearly does not solve, or even deal with, every aspect of the aircraft design. Rather, a general direction is suggested and supported with initial, approximate calculations.
Physical interpretation of large Lorentz violation via Weyl semimetals
The physical intepretation of effective field theories of fundamental interactions incorporating large Lorentz violation is a long-standing challenge, known as the concordance problem. In condensed-matter physics, certain Weyl semimetals with emergent Lorentz invariance exhibit large Lorentz violation, thereby offering prospective laboratory analogues for exploration of this issue. We take advantage of the mathematical equivalence between the descriptions of large Lorentz violation in fundamental and condensed-matter physics to investigate the primary aspects of the concordance problem, which arise when the coefficients for Lorentz violation are large or the observer frame is highly boosted. Using thermodynamic arguments, we present a physical solution to the concordance problem and explore some implications.
Statistical chronometry of Meteorites: II. Initial abundances and homogeneity of short-lived radionuclides
Astrophysical models of planet formation require accurate radiometric dating of meteoritic components by short-lived (Al-Mg, Mn-Cr, Hf-W) and long-lived (U-Pb) chronometers, to develop a timeline of such events in the solar nebula as formation of Ca-rich, Al-rich Inclusions (CAIs), chondrules, planetesimals, etc. CAIs formed mostly around a time (“t=0”) when the short-lived radionuclide 26 Al (t 1/2 = 0.72 Myr) was present and presumably homogeneously distributed at a known level we define as ( 26 Al/ 27 Al) SS = 5.23 × 10 -5 . The time of formation after t=0 of another object can be found by determining its initial ( 26 Al/ 27 Al) 0 ratio and comparing it to ( 26 Al/ 27 Al) SS . Dating of meteoritic objects using the Mn-Cr or Hf-W systems is hindered because the abundances ( 53 Mn/ 55 Mn) SS and ( 182 Hf/ 180 Hf) SS at t=0 are not known precisely. To constrain these quantities, we compile literature Al-Mg, Mn-Cr, Hf-W and Pb-Pb data for 13 achondrites and use novel statistical techniques to minimize the discrepancies between their times of formation across these systems. We find that for ( 53 Mn/ 55 Mn) SS = (7.80±0.36)×10 -6 , ( 182 Hf/ 180 Hf) SS = (10.41 ± 0.12) × 10-5, t SS = 4568.65 ± 0.10 Myr, and a 53 Mn half-life of 3.98 ± 0.22 Myr, these four free parameters make concordant 18 formation times recorded by the different systems in all six known volcanic achondrites (the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555, Northwest Africa 1670; the psuedo-eucrites Asuka 881394 and Ibitira; and the basaltic achondrite Northwest Africa 7325). These parameters also make concordant the ages derived for chondrules from CB/CH achondrites, formed simultaneously in an impact. The other seven achondrites are not quite concordant, but are plutonic angrites or ‘carbonaceous achondrites’ for which simultaneous closure of the isotopic systems might not be expected. Our findings provide very strong support for homogeneity of 26 Al, 53 Mn, and 182 Hf in the solar nebula, and our approach offers a path for more precise chronometry
A universal structured-design diagramer
Program (FLOWCHARTER) generates standardized flowcharts and concordances for development and debugging of programs in any language. User describes programming-language grammar, providing syntax rules in Backus-Naur form (BNF), list of semantic rules, and set of concordance rules. Once grammar is described, user supplies only source code of program to be diagrammed. FLOWCHARTER automatically produces flow diagram and concordance. Source code for program is written for PASCAL Release 2 compiler, as distributed by University of Minnesota.
The high speed civil transport: A technology challenge
It has been over 17 years since Concorde entered service with British Airways and Air France. The thirteen production aircraft are still safely operating and may extend their service life into the next century. We can appreciate the technical success Concorde has achieved. However, from the onset the aircraft was unable to achieve overall economic viability. Currently the aircraft does generate a yearly profit for British Airways which is privatized. Unacceptable airport noise and sonic boom overland levels were detrimental to the aircraft performing between many worldwide city pairs. On the horizon appears a possible successor to Concorde that will need to demonstrate environmental acceptability and economic viability shortly after the turn of the century. This vehicle has been labelled the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). I believe that we can overcome the environmental and economic goals based on encouraging market demand forecasts and technology improvements that are materializing in current research and development programs.
Methods for semi-automated indexing for high precision information retrieval
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a new system, ISAID (Internet-based Semi-automated Indexing of Documents), and to generate textbook indexes that are more detailed and more useful to readers. DESIGN: Pilot evaluation: simple, nonrandomized trial comparing ISAID with manual indexing methods. Methods evaluation: randomized, cross-over trial comparing three versions of ISAID and usability survey. PARTICIPANTS: Pilot evaluation: two physicians. Methods evaluation: twelve physicians, each of whom used three different versions of the system for a total of 36 indexing sessions. MEASUREMENTS: Total index term tuples generated per document per minute (TPM), with and without adjustment for concordance with other subjects; inter-indexer consistency; ratings of the usability of the ISAID indexing system. RESULTS: Compared with manual methods, ISAID decreased indexing times greatly. Using three versions of ISAID, inter-indexer consistency ranged from 15% to 65% with a mean of 41%, 31%, and 40% for each of three documents. Subjects using the full version of ISAID were faster (average TPM: 5.6) and had higher rates of concordant index generation. There were substantial learning effects, despite our use of a training/run-in phase. Subjects using the full version of ISAID were much faster by the third indexing session (average TPM: 9.1). There was a statistically significant increase in three-subject concordant indexing rate using the full version of ISAID during the second indexing session (p < 0.05). SUMMARY: Users of the ISAID indexing system create complex, precise, and accurate indexing for full-text documents much faster than users of manual methods. Furthermore, the natural language processing methods that ISAID uses to suggest indexes contributes substantially to increased indexing speed and accuracy.
Statin Drug‐Drug Interactions: Pharmacokinetic Basis of FDA Labeling Recommendations and Comparison Across Common Tertiary Clinical Resources
Abstract Statins are widely prescribed and highly susceptible to pharmacokinetic (PK)‐based drug–drug interactions (DDIs). To date, there has not been a comprehensive analysis of the basis upon which statin DDI recommendations in US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) prescribing information (PI) are derived. We have conducted such an analysis. We also assessed the degree of concordance of statin DDI recommendations in FDA PI and those provided in common tertiary clinical resources. We catalogued statin DDI information, including PK data and management recommendations, for statin precipitant drugs approved from 2010 to 2021, available from FDA PI and tertiary clinical resource databases. Recommendations were categorized and mapped with associated PK data to assess consistency in the PK basis for labeling recommendations. From the 80 precipitant drugs evaluated, 180 statin DDIs were identified in FDA PI. Dedicated clinical DDI studies were conducted for 54% (n = 97) of these DDIs and 34% (n = 61) of DDI recommendations were extrapolated from clinical data with other statins. Overall, we found that PK‐based statin recommendations were consistent across PI. These findings highlight regulatory precedence for translating information across statins without conducting dedicated clinical DDI studies, which may support future efforts toward streamlining the approach to investigation and labeling of statin DDIs. In addition, with the exception of some notable discrepancies, general concordance was observed between FDA and tertiary resources regarding “Dose Adjustment” and “Avoid Coadministration” recommendations. However, further analyses are warranted across other DDI pairs to determine whether discordance can routinely lead to different clinical recommendations depending on the drug information resource.
The timing of lunar solidification and mantle overturn recorded in ferroan anorthosite 62237
Ferroan anorthosite suite (FAS) rocks are widely interpreted to represent primordial lunar crust. Despite their importance in pinpointing the timing of lunar crust formation, robust chronological investigations for this rock type are scarce. Here, we report the Ar-Ar, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd isotopic systematics for the FAS troctolitic anorthosite 62237. The Ar-Ar isotopic system has been reset by a thermal event at 3710 ± 48 Ma, and the Rb-Sr isotopic systematics has been disturbed such that a Rb-Sr isochron age cannot be determined. However, an internal isochron for the Sm-Nd isotopic system has yielded an age of 4350 ± 73 Ma (MSWD = 2.0) with an initial ε 143 Nd CHUR of -0.53 ± 0.26. The mineral and whole-rock fractions of 62237 plot on the same internal isochron as FAS sample 60025. The combined datasets define an age of 4372 ± 35 Ma (MSWD = 4.0) with an initial ε 143 Nd CHUR of -0.17 ± 0.22. Literature Sm-Nd data for FAS and Mg-suite whole-rocks also plot on the 60025-62237 isochron. The coherence of data from both FAS and Mg-suite rocks examined thus far suggests that both rock suites formed contemporaneously from identical, or nearly identical, sources. In addition, the concordance of FAS and Mg-suite ages suggests that primordial crust solidification either involved both magmatic suites, or that Mg-suite magmatism was contemporaneous with FAS magmatism within resolution of the Sm-Nd chronometer. The ages for FAS and Mg-suite also coincide with the formation ages of the mare basalt source regions and urKREEP. Ferroan anorthosite suite rocks and urKREEP are thought to represent primordial LMO solidification products, whereas Mg-suite and the mare basalt source regions are argued to represent mixtures of various LMO crystallization products that were formed during density-driven overturn of the LMO. The concordance of ages implies that the 4372 ± 35 Ma Sm-Nd isochron records the age of mantle overturn, and that overturn occurred during, or shortly after, solidification of the LMO.
Statistical chronometry of meteorites. I. A Test of 26 Al homogeneity and the Pb-Pb age of the solar system’s $t=0$
Here, we use rapidly cooled achondrites to test the assumption of 26 Al homogeneity in the solar nebula, by checking if there is a single value of t SS , the absolute “Pb-Pb” age of the Solar System’s t=0, that makes concordant their ages from the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems. We find that values t SS =4568.42 ± 0.24 Myr do make these ages concordant, and therefore the hypothesis of homogeneous 26 Al is not falsified. This age, defined to be when the solar nebula had ( 26 Al/ 27 Al) = 5.23 × 10 –5 , is significantly older than the ≈ 4567.3 Myr inferred from direct measurements of Pb-Pb ages in CAIs. Discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers in chondrules and CAIs have previously been interpreted as arising from heterogeneities in 26 Al, under the presumption that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in CAIs closed simultaneously. We examine this assumption and show that resetting is to be expected in CAIs. In particular, we quantitatively demonstrate that it is plausible that Pb-Pb ages of CAIs were reset at late times, without resetting the earlier Al-Mg ages, if they were transiently heated in the same manner as chondrules. We critically examine Pb-Pb isochrons, refining data and suggesting best practices for their calculation and reporting. We advocate reporting chronometry as times of formation after t=0 rather than absolute ages, as only the former is useful for astrophysical models of the solar nebula. We advocate averaging of multiple samples, rather than anchoring to individual meteorites, to improve precision.
Co-Active Subspace Methods for the Joint Analysis of Adjacent Computer Models
Active subspace (AS) methods are a valuable tool for understanding the relationship between the inputs and outputs of a Physics simulation. In this article, an elegant generalization of the traditional ASM is developed to assess the co-activity of two computer models. This generalization, which we refer to as a Co-Active Subspace (Co-AS) Method, allows for the joint analysis of two or more computer models allowing for thorough exploration of the alignment (or non-alignment) of the respective gradient spaces. We define co-active directions, co-sensitivity indices, and a scalar “concordance” metric (and complementary “discordance” pseudo-metric) and we demonstrate that these are powerful tools for understanding the behavior of a class of computer models, especially when used to supplement traditional AS analysis. Details for efficient estimation of the Co-AS and an accompanying R package (concordance) are provided. Practical application is demonstrated through analyzing a set of simulated rate stick experiments for PBX 9501, a high explosive, offering insights into complex model dynamics.
Probing New physics with high-redshift quasars: axions and non-standard cosmology
The Hubble diagram of quasars, as candidates to “standardizable” candles, has been used to measure the expansion history of the Universe at late times, up to very high redshifts ( z ~ 7). It has been shown that this history, as inferred from the quasar dataset, deviates at ≳ 3 σ level from the concordance (ΛCDM) cosmology model preferred by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other datasets. In this article, we investigate whether new physics beyond ΛCDM (BΛCDM) or beyond the Standard Model (BSM) could make the quasar data consistent with the concordance model. We first show that an effective redshift-dependent relation between the quasar UV and X-ray luminosities, complementing previous phenomenological work in the literature, can potentially remedy the discrepancy. Such a redshift dependence can be realized in a BSM model with axion-photon conversion in the intergalactic medium (IGM), although the preferred parameter space is in tension with various other astrophysical constraints on axions, at a level depending on the specific assumptions made regarding the IGM magnetic field. We briefly discuss a variation of the axion model that could evade these astrophysical constraints. On the other hand, we show that models beyond ΛCDM such as one with a varying dark energy equation of state ( w CDM) or the phenomenological cosmographic model with a polynomial expansion of the luminosity distance, cannot alleviate the tension. The code for our analysis, based on emcee [1] and corner.py [2], is publicly available at github.com/ChenSun-Phys/high_z_candles.
Discordant Clinical and Microbiological Outcomes Are Associated With Late Clinical Relapse in Clinical Trials for Complicated Urinary Tract Infections
Abstract Background Current US Food and Drug Administration guidance recommends that the primary endpoint for complicated urinary tract infection clinical trials be a composite of the clinical and microbiological responses, assessed at a fixed point after therapy. Although some participants meet the criteria for clinical success, they do not meet the criteria for microbiological eradication and are classified as treatment failures. These discordant outcomes have raised questions about the utility of the microbiological endpoint. Methods We analyzed participant data from 13 phase 3 clinical trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (N = 4842). Outcomes were determined at the test of cure (TOC) visit, recommended to occur at least 5 days after therapy and at the late follow-up visit, recommended to occur 21 to 28 days after randomization. Clinical and microbiological success were defined as the resolution of complicated urinary tract infection symptoms present at study entry, with no new symptoms (clinical cure), and a reduction in density of the original pathogen to <103 CFU/mL on urine culture (microbiological eradication). Results Among included participants, 70.7% were concordant successes at the TOC visit, 18.0% were discordant failures (clinical cure/microbiological persistence), and 6.7% were concordant failures (clinical failure/microbiological persistence). Discordant participants were at an increased risk for clinical failure at the late follow-up visit, and the risk of late clinical failure increased with time. Conclusions Discordant clinical and microbiological outcomes at the TOC visit were associated with an increased risk of late clinical failure. Microbiological outcomes appear to be an important component of the endpoint.
Familial Associations of Prevalence and Cause-Specific Mortality for Thoracic Aortic Disease and Bicuspid Aortic Valve in a Large-Population Database
Thoracic aortic disease and bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) likely have a heritable component, but large population-based studies are lacking. This study characterizes familial associations of thoracic aortic disease and BAV, as well as cardiovascular and aortic-specific mortality, among relatives of these individuals in a large-population database. In this observational case-control study of the Utah Population Database, we identified probands with a diagnosis of BAV, thoracic aortic aneurysm, or thoracic aortic dissection. Age- and sex-matched controls (10:1 ratio) were identified for each proband. First-degree relatives, second-degree relatives, and first cousins of probands and controls were identified through linked genealogical information. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the familial associations for each diagnosis. We used a competing-risk model to determine the risk of cardiovascular-specific and aortic-specific mortality for relatives of probands. The study population included 3,812,588 unique individuals. Familial hazard risk of a concordant diagnosis was elevated in the following populations compared with controls: first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (hazard ratio [HR], 6.88 [95% CI, 5.62–8.43]); first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm (HR, 5.09 [95% CI, 3.80–6.82]); and first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic dissection (HR, 4.15 [95% CI, 3.25–5.31]). In addition, the risk of aortic dissection was higher in first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (HR, 3.63 [95% CI, 2.68–4.91]) and in first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aneurysm (HR, 3.89 [95% CI, 2.93–5.18]) compared with controls. Dissection risk was highest in first-degree relatives of patients who carried a diagnosis of both BAV and aneurysm (HR, 6.13 [95% CI, 2.82–13.33]). First-degree relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or aortic dissection had a higher risk of aortic-specific mortality (HR, 2.83 [95% CI, 2.44–3.29]) compared with controls. Our results indicate that BAV and thoracic aortic disease carry a significant familial association for concordant disease and aortic dissection. The pattern of familiality is consistent with a genetic cause of disease. Furthermore, we observed higher risk of aortic-specific mortality in relatives of individuals with these diagnoses. In conclusion, this study provides supportive evidence for screening in relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or dissection.
Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C
This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.