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A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers and air traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control imctions.This paper describes a conflict detection and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection and resolution method.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Steps Towards the Integration of Conflict Resolution with Metering and Scheduling

NASA Ames Research Center is developing decision support tool technology for air traffic controllers to improve the efficiency and capacity of National Airspace System. The goal is to provide technology, tools and procedures that result in the highest possible level of user preferred trajectories whenever possible with safe and efficient traffic management when necessary. The work is being conducted under the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technology Program in cooperation with the FAA through the Inter-Agency Integrated Product Team. The objective is to develop technology and procedures that lead towards a seamless integration of conflict resolution with metering and scheduling for arrival aircraft and en route aircraft that are under metering restrictions. A requirement is that the integration incorporate user preferred trajectories. The ultimate goal is the implementation and validation of the Descent Advisor (DA) concept which provides clearance advisories to a sector controller that simultaneously meet metering constraints, are conflict free, incorporate a user preferred (e.g., minimum fuel) descent profile, and generally require no further corrective clearance as the aircraft transitions from en route cruise into the TRACON. The DA concept may also be applied to en route aircraft under metering constraints, e.g., miles-in-trail. To achieve the DA concept a stepwise development and field evaluation is anticipated. This paper addresses the initial steps towards implementation of the DA. The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) computes arrival time sequence and required delay information for display to the sector controller during periods when arrivals must be metered due to landing rate restrictions at the airport. The Initial Conflict Probe (ICP) compares trajectory predictions for all aircraft and alerts the controller when any two aircraft are predicted to violate separation standards (5 mi. and 2000 ft. in en route airspace). ICP also includes a trial planning function allowing the controller to develop and check a separate "what if" trajectory for conflict resolution. TMA and ICP currently operate independent of one another and have separate controller displays. The TMA meter list is on the radar controller's plan view display. The ICP is still under development, but the current concept calls for a list of predicted conflicts at the data controller position. The research described herein address two steps towards the implementation of DA. The first is to develop a concept for integrated display of conflict and metering information on a controller's display. The objective is to provide the controller with situational awareness of one problem while he develops a solution to the other. The next step is to expand the concept for display of automated clearance advisories for one problem (e.g., metering) which take into account the other problems (e.g., conflicts). Information to be communicated between TMA and ICP to facilitate' manual or automated advisories is being identified as the concept matures. In order to study the ICP/TMA integration concept the CTAS conflict probe capability has been adapted to Ft. Worth Center. The system is being validated in the laboratory with all-track data and for non -interference with TMA, TMA is already running as a daily use prototype at Ft. Worth Center. A laboratory prototype system has been developed under the CTAS baseline which combines conflict and metering information on a common user interface. Elements of the user interface are shown in Figure 1. In this simple illustration the user sees the simultaneous effect of a trial plan on meter fix delay and conflict status. Delay information is shown in the aircraft flight data block, the meter list, and the TMA timeline. Experience during Descent Advisor development and observations at Ft. Worth Center high and low attitude arrival sectors during metering suggests that manual trial planning will be unworkable during rush periods due to high controller workload.

McNally, B. David↗

TSAFE Interface Control Document v 2.0

This document specifies the data interface for TSAFE, the Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment. TSAFE is a research prototype of a software application program for alerting air traffic controllers to imminent conflicts in enroute airspace. It is intended for Air Route Traffic Control Centers ("Centers") in the U.S. National Airspace System. It predicts trajectories for approximately 3 minutes into the future, searches for conflicts, and sends data about predicted conflicts to the client, which uses the data to alert an air traffic controller of conflicts. TSAFE itself does not provide a graphical user interface.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

prognosis↗

Formal Verification of Air Traffic Conflict Prevention Bands Algorithms

In air traffic management, a pairwise conflict is a predicted loss of separation between two aircraft, referred to as the ownship and the intruder. A conflict prevention bands system computes ranges of maneuvers for the ownship that characterize regions in the airspace that are either conflict-free or 'don't go' zones that the ownship has to avoid. Conflict prevention bands are surprisingly difficult to define and analyze. Errors in the calculation of prevention bands may result in incorrect separation assurance information being displayed to pilots or air traffic controllers. This paper presents provably correct 3-dimensional prevention bands algorithms for ranges of track angle; ground speed, and vertical speed maneuvers. The algorithms have been mechanically verified in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The verification presented in this paper extends in a non-trivial way that of previously published 2-dimensional algorithms.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Predicting the Likelihood of Human-Elephant Conflict and Assessing Patterns in Elephant Movements Over Varying Habitat Conditions in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

In the Kavango-Zambezi area of southern Africa, three million people live within areas frequently traveled by free-ranging elephants. As the region continues to develop rapidly, urban and agricultural settlements further encroach upon the land that these elephants use. As elephants come into more frequent contact with urban and agricultural areas, human populations face financial loss through crop damage and the potential for injury from direct conflict with elephants. Elephant populations are also at risk of injuries from conflict as well as illness related to the consumption of waste. In order to implement human-elephant conflict mitigation strategies, local conservation groups need to be informed on best practices for coexistence. This project aided The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation in understanding the ecological factors that drive elephant movement into human settlements and provided Earth observation data to support conflict management in the future. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to create land use land cover maps and calculate vegetation indices, and used TerraClimate data to analyze drought conditions. These classified maps allowed us to display a time series of human settlement from 1990 to the present and were made explorable alongside other environmental variables in an updated Google Earth Engine (GEE) tool. This project also provided heat maps that show the risk of human-elephant conflict based on historical data of HEC locations. This analysis will provide support for conservation experts in determining best practices for future mitigation and prevention of human-elephant conflict.

Ariel Calle↗

Observations, models, and mechanisms of failure of surface rocks surrounding planetary surface loads

Geophysical models of flexural stresses in an elastic lithosphere due to an axisymmetric surface load typically predict a transition with increased distance from the center of the load of radial thrust faults to strike-slip faults to concentric normal faults. These model predictions are in conflict with the absence of annular zones of strike-slip faults around prominent loads such as lunar maria, Martian volcanoes, and the Martian Tharsis rise. We suggest that this paradox arises from difficulties in relating failure criteria for brittle rocks to the stress models. Indications that model stresses are inappropriate for use in fault-type prediction include (1) tensile principal stresses larger than realistic values of rock tensile strength, and/or (2) stress differences significantly larger than those allowed by rock-strength criteria. Predictions of surface faulting that are consistent with observations can be obtained instead by using tensile and shear failure criteria, along with calculated stress differences and trajectories, with model stress states not greatly in excess of the maximum allowed by rock fracture criteria.

Schultz, R. A.↗

Nova-driven winds in globular clusters

Recent sensitive searches for H-alpha emission from ionized intracluster gas in globular clusters have set upper limits that conflict with theoretical predictions. It is suggested that nova outbursts heat the gas, producing winds that resolve this discrepancy. The incidence of novae in globular clusters, the conversion of kinetic energy of the nova shell to thermal energy of the intracluster gas, and the characteristics of the resultant winds are discussed. Calculated emission from the nova-driven models does not conflict with any observations to date. Some suggestions are made concerning the most promising approaches for future detection of intracluster gas on the basis of these models. The possible relationship of nova-driven winds to globular cluster X-ray sources is also considered.

Scott, E. H.↗

Microstructural, Oxidation, and Mechanical Behavior of NbTi-Based Refractory Alloys with 5 to 10 Pct Co, Cr, and Ni Additions

NbTi-based refractory alloys with additions of Co, Cr, and Ni represent an interesting medium-entropy alloy system with potential for protective oxide film formation, high strength, and ductility. This study investigates the microstructural evolution, oxidation behavior, and mechanical properties of NbTi-based alloys containing 5 to 10 at. pct Co, Cr, and Ni. CALPHAD predictions suggest that this composition range can be heat treated to obtain a predominantly body-centered cubic matrix phase. Mechanical properties, including microhardness, yield strength, maximum strength, and specific strength are evaluated through isothermal compression tests conducted between room temperature and 800 °C. The oxidation kinetics of these alloys are assessed through discontinuous oxidation tests. Parabolic oxidation kinetics were observed for NbTi–10Ni and NbTi–5Co, while linear oxidation kinetics were found for NbTi–10Cr and NbTi–10(CoCrNi). Microstructures and oxide layers are characterized using X-ray diffraction, electron backscatter diffraction, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy. All alloys exhibit significant mechanical softening between room temperature and 800 °C, with elastic-perfectly plastic flow observed at 800 °C. The addition of 10 pct Cr to NbTi resulted in two BCC phases up to 1050 °C, conflicting with CALPHAD predictions of a single-phase solid solution at this temperature, and resulting in higher flow stress at 800 °C. NbTi–10(CoCrNi) exhibited the lowest flow stress at 800 °C despite having more ‘cocktail effect’ potential and insufficient molar fractions of Co, Cr, or Ni to form a desirable protective oxide film.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Are the high-latitude torsional oscillations of the sun real

A numerical test is made to determine if the high-latitude torsional wave is generated from the low-latitude torsional pattern as a result of reduction procedures. The results indicate that the high-latitude motions are not an artifact of the analysis, but are true solar features. It is also demonstrated that the one-wave-per-hemisphere torsional oscillation does not result from the reduction procedure. These results place the observations in conflict with the predictions of alpha-omega models of the solar cycle.

Labonte, B. J.↗

Radio scintillations observed during atmospheric occultations of Voyager: Internal gravity waves at Titan and magnetic field orientations at Jupiter and Saturn

The refractive index of planetary atmospheres at microwave frequencies is discussed. Physical models proposed for the refractive irregularities in the ionosphere and neutral atmosphere serve to characterize the atmospheric scattering structures, and are used subsequently to compute theoretical scintillation spectra for comparison with the Voyager occultation measurements. A technique for systematically analyzing and interpreting the signal fluctuations observed during planetary occultations is presented and applied to process the dual-wavelength data from the Voyager radio occultations by Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan. Results concerning the plasma irregularities in the upper ionospheres of Jupiter and Saturn are reported. The measured orientation of the irregularities is used to infer the magnetic field direction at several locations in the ionospheres of these two planets; the occultation measurements conflict with the predictions of Jovian magnetic field models, but generally confirm current models of Saturn's field. Wave parameters, including the vertical fluxes of energy and momentum, are estimated, and the source of the internal gravity waves discovered in Titan's upper atmosphere is considered.

Hinson, D. P.↗