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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

Detection of Hail Storms in Radar Imagery Using Deep Learning

In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest weather phenomenon in the United States. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques and reduce the societal impacts associated with hail storms, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages radar imagery for automatic detection of hail storms. The technique is applied to radar imagery from 2011 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and achieved a precision of 0.848. Hail storms are primarily detected through the visual interpretation of radar imagery (Mrozet al., 2017). With radars providing data every two minutes, the detection of hail storms has become a big data task. As a result, scientists have turned to neural networks that employ computer vision to identify hail-bearing storms (Marzbanet al., 2001). In this study, we propose a deep Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) to understand the spatial features and patterns of radar echoes for detecting hailstorms.

natural hazard↗

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Summertime surface-level ozone (O3 ) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3 -temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on O3 variability, events, and its correlation with temperature. Using observations from CASTNet in the contiguous United States, we show that the GMI CTM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and the O3 -temperature relationship during the summer. We primarily focus on the total change in O3 due to a change in temperature (d O3 /d T). In regions with strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport primarily drives d O3 /d T with smaller contributions from temperature-dependent chemistry and anthropogenic emissions. There are regions, however, with near-zero correlation between temperature and O3 , and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

ozone, temperature, CTM↗

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

geographic barriers↗

Toward Improving Short-Term Predictions of Fine Particulate Matter Over the United States Via Assimilation of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals

This study develops a new approach to improve simulations of the particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5μm (PM2.5) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model via assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth(AOD) retrievals using the Grid point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In contrast to previous studies that only consider errors due to transport, our computation of the background error covariance matrix incorporates uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions. To understand the impact of this approach, three experiments (one background and two assimilations) are performed over the contiguous United States(CONUS) from 15 July to 14 August 2014. The background CMAQ experiment significantly underestimates both the MODIS AOD and surface PM2.5levels. MODIS AOD assimilation pushes both the CMAQ AOD and surface PM2.5distributions toward the observed distributions, but CMAQ still underestimates the observations. Averaged over CONUS, the two assimilation experiments with and without including the anthropogenic emission uncertainties improve the correlation coefficient between the model and independent observations of PM2.5 by ~67% and ~48%, respectively, and reduces the mean bias by ~38% and~10%, respectively. The assimilation improves the model performance everywhere over CONUS, except the New York and Wisconsin, where CMAQ overestimates the observed PM2.5during nighttime after assimilation likely because of overcorrection of aerosol mass concentrations by the AOD assimilation. Future work should incorporate uncertainties in other processes (biomass burning and biogenic emissions, deposition, chemistry, transport, and boundary conditions) to further enhance the value of assimilating spaceborne AOD retrievals.

Assimilation↗

Large 0/12 GMT Differences of US Vaisala RS80 Observations

The daily differences between the temperatures and heights taken at 0 GMT and 12 GMT by Vaisala RS80 rawinsondes have been calculated. The observations were obtained during selected months from 1998 - 2002 over North America, Europe and Australia. The daily differences are defined by the formula, Delta T = Delta T(sub 0) - 0.5(T(sub -12) - T(sub +12)) where AT is the 0/12 GMT difference, T(sub 0) is the 0 GMT observation and T(sub -12) and T(sub +12) are the 12 GMT observations taken just prior and after the 0 GMT synoptic time. If T(sub +12) is missing then Delta T = T(sub 0) - T(sub -12). A similar expression is used if T(sub -12) is missing. Monthly averages of the increments at each station that launch RS80 rawinsondes are then calculated. The results show positive systematic differences in the stratosphere with values as high as 5 K and 150 m at 10 hPa over the central United States. The values remain generally positive and gradually decrease as the levels descend into the upper troposphere but are still significant. In addition, the maximum at each level is just westward of 90 W at the highest levels and just eastward in the troposphere with smaller values along both coasts. In Canada as well as in Europe and Australia the differences are much smaller with no systematic patterns similar to those that exist over the contiguous United States. Time-series plots of the temperatures and heights at select stations in the United States show that the observed values taken at 0 GMT are consistently higher than those at 12 GMT. Over Canada the differences become much less apparent and some cases non-existent. The observations were obtained through National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) but were checked with data from other sources to verify that no modifications were made other than those at the stations. Since the data from outside the the United States exhibit no large systematic differences, the preliminary conclusion is that the large differences are artificial and probably originate from the post-processing software at the observing stations.

Redder, Chris↗

Satellites for long-term monitoring of inland U.S. lakes: The MERIS time series and application for chlorophyll-a

Lakes and other surface fresh waterbodies provide drinking water, recreational and economic opportunities, food, and other critical support for humans, aquatic life, and ecosystem health. Lakes are also productive ecosystems that provide habitats and influence global cycles. Chlorophyll concentration provides a common metric of water quality, and is frequently used as a proxy for lake trophic state. Here, we document the generation and distribution of the complete MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS; Appendix A provides a complete list of abbreviations) radiometric time series for over 2300 satellite resolvable inland bodies of water across the contiguous United States (CONUS) and more than 5,000 in Alaska. This contribution greatly increases the ease of use of satellite remote sensing data for inland water quality monitoring, as well as highlights new horizons in inland water remote sensing algorithm development. We evaluate the performance of satellite remote sensing Cyanobacteria Index (CI)-based chlorophyll algorithms, the retrievals for which provide surrogate estimates of phytoplankton concentrations in cyanobacteria dominated lakes. Our analysis quantifies the algorithms' abilities to assess lake trophic state across the CONUS. As a case study, we apply a bootstrapping approach to derive a new CI-to-chlorophyll relationship, ChlBS, which performs relatively well with a multiplicative bias of 1.11 (11%) and mean absolute error of 1.60 (60%). While the primary contribution of this work is the distribution of the MERIS radiometric timeseries, we provide this case study as a roadmap for future stakeholders' algorithm development activities, as well as a tool to assess the strengths and weaknesses of applying a single algorithm across CONUS.

MERIS timeseries↗

Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Drought Forecasts

Research in meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has seen growth in recent years. Concurrent with this, demand for seasonal drought forecasting has risen. While there is obvious synergy between these fields, S2S meteorological forecasting has typically focused on low resolution global models, while the development of drought can be sensitive to the local expression of weather anomalies and their interaction with local surface properties and processes. This suggests that downscaling might play an important role in the application of meteorological S2S forecasts to skillful forecasting of drought. Here, we apply the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) algorithm to downscale meteorological hindcasts from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global S2S forecast system. Downscaled meteorological fields are then applied to drive offline simulations with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) to forecast United States Drought Monitor (USDM) style drought indicators derived from simulated surface hydrology variables. We compare the representation of drought in these downscaled hindcasts to hindcasts that are not downscaled, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset as an observational reference. We find that downscaling using GARD improves hindcasts of temperature and temperature anomalies, but the results for precipitation are mixed and generally small. Overall, GARD downscaling led to improved hindcast skill for total drought across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), and improvements were greatest for extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought categories.

Ryan A Zamora↗

Satellites quantify the spatial extent of cyanobacterial blooms across the United States at multiple scales

Previous studies indicate that cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) frequency, extent, and magnitude have increased globally over the past few decades. However, little quantitative capability is available to assess these metrics of cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Here, the spatial extent was quantified from a cyanobacteria algorithm applied to two European Space Agency satellite platforms—the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) onboard Envisat and the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3. CyanoHAB spatial extent was defined for each geographic area as the percentage of valid satellite pixels that exhibited cyanobacteria above the detection limit of the satellite sensor. This study quantified cyanoHAB spatial extent for over 2,000 large lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous United States (CONUS) during two time periods: 2008–2011 via MERIS and 2017–2020 via OLCI when cloud-, ice-, and snowfree imagery was available. Approximately 56% of resolvable lakes were glaciated, 13% were headwater, isolated, or terminal lakes, and the rest were primarily drainage lakes. Results were summarized at national-, regional-, state-, and lake-scales, where regions were defined as nine climate regions which represent climatically consistent states. As measured by satellite, changes in national cyanoHAB extent did have a strong increase of 6.9% from 2017 to 2020 (|Kendall’s tau (τ)| = 0.56; gamma (γ) = 2.87 years), but had negligible change (|τ| = 0.03) from 2008 to 2011. Two of the nine regions had moderate (0.3 ≤ |τ| < 0.5) increases in spatial extent from 2017 to 2020, and eight of nine regions had negligible (|τ| < 0.2) change from 2008 to 2011. Twelve states had a strong or moderate increase from 2017 to 2020 (|τ| ≥ 0.3), while only one state had a moderate increase and two states had a moderate decrease from 2008 to 2011. A decrease, or no change, in cyanoHAB spatial extent did not indicate a lack of issues related to cyanoHABs. Sensitivity results of randomly omitted daily CONUS scenes confirm that even with reduced data availability during a short four-year temporal assessment, the direction and strength of the changes in spatial extent remained consistent. We present the first set of national maps of lake cyanoHAB spatial extent across CONUS and demonstrate an approach for quantifying past and future changes at multiple spatial scales. Results presented here provide water quality managers information regarding current cyanoHAB spatial extent and quantify rates of change.

Harmful algal blooms↗

Satellites Quantify the Spatial Extent of Cyanobacterial Blooms Across the United States at Multiple Scales

Previous studies indicate that cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) frequency, extent, and magnitude have increased globally over the past few decades. However, little quantitative capability is available to assess these metrics of cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Here, the spatial extent was quantified from a cyanobacteria algorithm applied to two European Space Agency satellite platforms—the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) onboard Envisat and the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3. CyanoHAB spatial extent was defined for each geographic area as the percentage of valid satellite pixels that exhibited cyanobacteria above the detection limit of the satellite sensor. This study quantified cyanoHAB spatial extent for over 2,000 large lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous United States (CONUS) during two time periods: 2008–2011 via MERIS and 2017–2020 via OLCI when cloud-, ice-, and snow-free imagery was available. Approximately 56% of resolvable lakes were glaciated, 13% were headwater, isolated, or terminal lakes, and the rest were primarily drainage lakes. Results were summarized at national-, regional-, state-, and lake-scales, where regions were defined as nine climate regions which represent climatically consistent states. As measured by satellite, changes in national cyanoHAB extent did have a strong increase of 6.9% from 2017 to 2020 (|Kendall’s tau (τ)| = 0.56; gamma (γ) = 2.87 years), but had negligible change (|τ| = 0.03) from 2008 to 2011. Two of the nine regions had moderate (0.3 ≤ |τ| < 0.5) increases in spatial extent from 2017 to 2020, and eight of nine regions had negligible (|τ| < 0.2) change from 2008 to 2011. Twelve states had a strong or moderate increase from 2017 to 2020 (|τ| ≥ 0.3), while only one state had a moderate increase and two states had a moderate decrease from 2008 to 2011. A decrease, or no change, in cyanoHAB spatial extent did not indicate a lack of issues related to cyanoHABs. Sensitivity results of randomly omitted daily CONUS scenes confirm that even with reduced data availability during a short four-year temporal assessment, the direction and strength of the changes in spatial extent remained consistent. We present the first set of national maps of lake cyanoHAB spatial extent across CONUS and demonstrate an approach for quantifying past and future changes at multiple spatial scales. Results presented here provide water quality managers information regarding current cyanoHAB spatial extent and quantify rates of change.

Harmful Algal Blooms↗

Microwave noise temperature and attenuation of clouds - Statistics of these effects at various sites in the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

The microwave attenuation and noise temperature effects of clouds can result in serious degradation of telecommunications link performance, especially for low-noise systems presently used in deep-space communications. Although cloud effects are generally less than rain effects, the frequent presence of clouds will cause some amount of link degradation a large portion of the time. This paper presents a general review of cloud types and their water particle densities, attenuation and noise temperature calculations, and basic link signal-to-noise ratio calculations. Tabular results of calculations for 12 different cloud models are presented for frequencies in the range 10-50 GHz. Curves of average-year attenuation and noise temperature statistics at frequencies ranging from 10 to 90 GHz, calculated from actual surface and radiosonde observations, are given for 15 climatologically distinct regions in the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii. Nonuniform sky cover is considered in these calculations.

Slobin, S. D.↗

A NASA-Air Force Precipitation Analysis for Near-Real-Time Operations

This article describes a new precipitation analysis algorithm developed by NASA for time-sensitive operations at the United States Air Force. Implemented as part of the Land Information System—a land modeling and data assimilation software framework—this NASA–Air Force Precipitation Analysis (NAFPA) combines numerical weather prediction model outputs with rain gauge measurements and satellite estimates to produce global, gridded 3-h accumulated precipitation fields at approximately 10-km resolution. Input observations are subjected to quality control checks before being used by the Bratseth analysis algorithm that converges to optimal interpolation. NAFPA assimilates up to 3.5 million observations without artificial data thinning or selection. To evaluate this new approach, a multiyear reanalysis is generated and intercompared with eight alternative precipitation products across the contiguous United States, Africa, and the monsoon region of eastern Asia. NAFPA yields superior accuracy and correlation over low-latency (up to 14 h) alternatives (numerical weather prediction and satellite retrievals), and often outperforms high-latency (up to 3.5 months) products, although the details for the latter vary by region and product. The development of NAFPA offers a high-quality, near-real-time product for use in meteorological, land surface, and hydrological research and applications.

Africa↗

Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

NAS based Benefits Analysis↗

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought, have a large impact on society through human health, destruction of infrastructure, ecological change, and economic losses. Reanalyses such as NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective Analysis, version 2 (MERRA-2) are a valuable tool for analyzing past extreme events to determine their underlying causes and how extremes have changed over the past four decades. The detection of extreme events relies on a threshold for precipitation or temperature that is derived using a reference period, which can then be used to determine how extreme an event was or what the return period is. Operational centers typically use a 30-year climatology period that shifts in time every ten years, while the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the maximum amount of data should be included for the detection of extreme events due to their rare occurrence. As global and regional climate continues to change, the interpretation of extreme events is reliant on the baseline period that is used for the underlying thresholds and can be a source of uncertainty for the policy making community. Three baseline periods – 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and 1981-2020 – will be used to compute percentiles of temperature and precipitation across the contiguous United States and will then by employed to determine monthly indices representing heatwaves, cold spells, and extreme precipitation events. A spatial and temporal analysis of the resulting extreme weather indices will demonstrate the appropriateness for each baseline period for the evaluation of extreme events.

Extremes↗

The Sensitivity of US Wildfire Occurrence to Pre-Season Soil Moisture Conditions Across Ecosystems

It is well accepted that drought and low moisture conditions are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state has been challenging due to a lack of soil moisture observations at an appropriate spatial scale. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined in a predictive algorithm with the US Forest Service’s Fire-Occurrence Database. We estimate a relationship between historic surface moisture and wildfire occurrence to produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area at 0.25-degree resolution for the contiguous United States by land-cover classification. Cross-validation indicates increased frequency of smaller fires when the months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This demonstrates that assimilated GRACE data holds information that could aid national-scale fire potential assessments for early decision-support.

Fire-Occurrence database↗

Benefit-cost methodology study with example application of the use of wind generators

An example application for cost-benefit methodology is presented for the use of wind generators. The approach adopted for the example application consisted of the following activities: (1) surveying of the available wind data and wind power system information, (2) developing models which quantitatively described wind distributions, wind power systems, and cost-benefit differences between conventional systems and wind power systems, and (3) applying the cost-benefit methodology to compare a conventional electrical energy generation system with systems which included wind power generators. Wind speed distribution data were obtained from sites throughout the contiguous United States and were used to compute plant factor contours shown on an annual and seasonal basis. Plant factor values (ratio of average output power to rated power) are found to be as high as 0.6 (on an annual average basis) in portions of the central U. S. and in sections of the New England coastal area. Two types of wind power systems were selected for the application of the cost-benefit methodology. A cost-benefit model was designed and implemented on a computer to establish a practical tool for studying the relative costs and benefits of wind power systems under a variety of conditions and to efficiently and effectively perform associated sensitivity analyses.

Zimmer, R. P.↗

Earth resources mission performance studies. Volume 1: Requirements definition

The need for a realistic set of earth resources collection requirements to test and maximize the data gathering capabilities of the EOS remote sensor systems is considered. The collection requirements will be derived from established user requirements. In order to confine and bound the requirements study, some baseline assumptions were established. These are: (1) image acquisition is confined to the contiguous United States, (2) the fundamental data users are select participating federal agencies, (3) the acquired data will be applied to generating information necessary or in support of existing federal agency charters, and (4) the most pressing or desired federal agency earth resources data requirements have been defined, suggested, or implied in current available literature.

Source record↗

Wind study for high altitude platform design

An analysis of upper air winds was performed to define the wind environment at potential operating altitudes for high-altitude powered platform concepts. Expected wind conditions of the contiguous United States, Pacific area (Alaska to Sea of Japan), and European area (Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas) were obtained using a representative network of sites selected based upon adequate high-altitude sampling, geographic dispersion, and observed upper wind patterns. A data base of twenty plus years of rawinsonde gathered wind information was used in the analysis. Annual variations from surface to 10 mb (approximately 31 km) pressure altitude were investigated to encompass the practical operating range for the platform concepts. Parametric analysis for the United States and foreign areas was performed to provide a basis for vehicle system design tradeoffs. This analysis of wind magnitudes indicates the feasibility of annual operation at a majority of sites and more selective seasonal operation for the extreme conditions between the pressure altitudes of 100 to 25 mb based upon the assumed design speeds.

Strganac, T. W.↗