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At least 55 records · Page 3

Effects of Improved Simulation of Precipitation on Evapotranspiration and Its Partitioning Over Land

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle, which is strongly modulated by the occurrence of different rainfall intensities. Global climate models (GCMs) commonly suffer from “too much light rain” and a negative bias in the ratio of transpiration (T) to ET (T/ET). It is unclear whether these biases are related. Here, in this work, we show that with the improved simulation of probability density functions of rainfall intensity by suppressing light-rain occurrence using a stochastic convection parameterization in the NCAR CESM1.2, the canopy T increases in tropical forests while evaporation from canopy interception and bare soil decreases. The simulated T/ET is increased by 2.5% globally and up to 8% regionally, primarily attributable to reduced fraction of wet leaves due to less frequent light rain despite its weak intensity. These results imply that excessive light rain is an important cause of the negative T/ET bias in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improved Convective Ice Microphysics Parameterization in the NCAR CAM Model

Partitioning deep convective cloud condensates into components that sediment and detrain, known to be a challenge for global climate models, is important for cloud vertical distribution and anvil cloud formation. In this study, we address this issue by improving the convective microphysics scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). The improvements include: (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. Results from the default and modified CAM5.3 models were evaluated against observations from the U.S. Department of Energy Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) field campaign. The default model overestimates ice amount, which is largely attributed to the underestimation of convective ice particle sedimentation. By considering cloud ice sedimentation and rimed ice particles and applying a new convective snow terminal velocity parameterization, the vertical distribution of ice amount is much improved in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere when compared to observations. The vertical distribution of ice condensate also agrees well with observational best estimates upon considering snow detrainment. Further, comparison with observed convective updrafts reveals that current bulk model fails to reproduce the observed updraft magnitude and occurrence frequency, suggesting spectral distributions be required to simulate the subgrid updraft heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning from Observations for Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Parameterizations and Analysis

Fusing learning from Earth observations from space and from the ground (e.g., ARM) with newly developed interpretable and generalizable physics-informed model structures to improve the parameterization of clouds and convection and advance the simulation, understanding and analysis of hydrological extreme events. This covers the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms in Regulating the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Abstract The update to the deep convection parameterization in the energy exascale Earth system model version 2 (E3SMv2) makes the simulated quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) have a shorter period than without the update when other tunable parameters the same since the update makes convection more intense but less frequent while leaving the time‐mean convective heating tendency almost unchanged. Amplitudes of momentum fluxes of parameterized gravity waves (GWs) are intensified since they are determined by the square of convective heating tendency. In addition, stronger planetary waves are simulated in E3SMv2 with the convection scheme update, partially due to the tropospheric precipitation change. Furthermore, there is evidence that planetary waves are intensified in the stratosphere due to the dissipation of enhanced parameterized GWs. These factors are found to be responsible for modulating the QBO simulated in E3SMv2.

Li, Yuanpu [Climate and Global Dynamics Division U↗

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Understanding of the Internal Structure and Dynamics of Deep Convection Using ARM Observations and Large Eddy Simulations (Final progress report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE Atmospheric System Research funded project entitled "Collaborative Proposal: Improving Understanding of the Internal Structure and Dynamics of Deep Convection Using ARM Observations and Large Eddy Simulations". This project addressed several science questions related to the structure and behavior of deep convective clouds in the atmosphere. It applied knowledge gained from this work to improve the deep cumulus convection parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Specific outcomes related to the project include an improved understanding of: (1) how convective cloud environments regulate the size of thermals reaching the upper troposphere, and hence the shallow-to-deep convective transition; (2) the role of dynamic pressure forcing in thermal and convective cloud evolution; and (3) the role of vertical wind shear on the behavior of moist thermals and the transition from shallow to deep convection. Although the primary motivation of this project was to improve basic understanding of thermal dynamics in atmospheric convection, an important component of this work was using this improved understanding to modify the representation of entrainment and vertical velocity profiles in the Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization used in CESM. This work also had a strong observational component, with analyses of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations to characterize thermal characteristics and behavior. Observations collected during the ARM-supported CACTI field project were used with high-resolution simulations to explore environmental controls on deep convection initiation. Data from the ARM-supported MC3E field project were also used to evaluate the representation of updraft vertical velocities in the Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization. This project directly supported the training of two post-doctoral researchers and led to 16 peer-reviewed published papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation and Exploration of Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model SCAM6

A single column model with parameterized large-scale (LS) dynamics is used to better understand the response of steady-state tropical precipitation to relative sea surface temperature under various representations of radiation, convection, and circulation. The large-scale dynamics are parametrized via the weak temperature gradient (WTG), damped gravity wave (DGW), and spectral weak temperature gradient (Spectral WTG) method in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM6). Radiative cooling is either specified or interactive, and the convective parameterization is run using two different values of a parameter that controls the degree of convective inhibition. Results are interpreted in the context of the Global Atmospheric System Studies -Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) Intercomparison project. Using the same parameter settings and simulation configuration as in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project, SCAM6 under the WTG and DGW methods produces erratic results, suggestive of numerical instability. However, when key parameters are changed to weaken the large-scale circulation's damping of tropospheric temperature variations, SCAM6 performs comparably to single column models in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project. The Spectral WTG method is less sensitive to changes in convection and radiation than are the other two methods, performing qualitatively similarly across all configurations considered. Under all three methods, circulation strength, represented in 1D by grid-scale vertical velocity, is decreased when barriers to convection are reduced. This effect is most extreme under specified radiative cooling, and is shown to come from increased static stability in the column's reference radiative-convective equilibrium profile. This argument can be extended to interactive radiation cases as well, though perhaps less conclusively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft Observations of Turbulence in Cloudy and Cloud-Free Boundary Layers Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean From ACTIVATE and Implications for the Earth System Model Evaluation and Development

This study examines boundary layer turbulence derived from high temporal resolution meteorological measurements from 40 research flights over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the 2020 deployments of ACTIVATE. Frequency distributions of various turbulent quantities reveal stronger turbulence during the winter deployment than in summer and for cloud‐topped than in cloud‐free boundary layers during the summer deployment. Maximum turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is most often within cloud from observations in winter and summer, whereas it is mostly below cloud in both seasons by a global model turbulence parameterization. Further, bivariate frequency distributions are consistent with the bivariate Gaussian probability distribution functions assumed for the closure of higher‐order turbulence/shallow convection parameterizations used by some global models. Turbulence simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 2 using such parameterizations is not as strong as observed, with more TKE going into vertical wind perturbations rather than into zonal wind perturbations as observed, suggesting that the treatment of turbulence in Earth system models still needs to be further improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed Covariations in Boundary Layer and Cumulus Cloud Layer Processes

In this paper we examine variations in boundary-layer processes spanning the shallow to deep cumulus transition. This is accomplished by differentiating boundary layer properties on the basis of convective outcomes, ranging from shallow to deep, as observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Doppler lidar, radar, and radiosonde data are combined to determine statistical differences in boundary layer and cloud layer properties using a large sample (236) of days with a range of convective outcomes: shallow, congestus, and deep convection. In these analyses, the radar characterizes diurnal cloud depth, the lidar quantifies updraft and downdraft properties in the subcloud layer, and daily radiosonde data provides the convective inhibition (CIN). Combined, these data are used to test the hypothesis that deep convection occurs when the strength of the boundary layer turbulence (i.e., TKE) exceeds the strength of the energy barrier (i.e., CIN) at the top of the CBL. Results show that days with deep convective clouds have significantly lower vertical velocity variance and weaker updrafts within the subcloud layer. However, CIN values are also found to be significantly lower on deep convective days, allowing for these weaker updrafts to penetrate the energy barrier and reach the level of free convection (LFC). In contrast, shallow convective outcomes occur when the updrafts are strong in an absolute sense, but are weak when compared to the strength of the energy barrier. These findings support the use of the CIN/TKE framework in parameterizing convection in coarse resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Global Atmosphere‐aerosol Model ICON‐A‐HAM2.3–Initial Model Evaluation and Effects of Radiation Balance Tuning on Aerosol Optical Thickness

Abstract The Hamburg Aerosol Module version 2.3 (HAM2.3) from the ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3 global atmosphere‐aerosol model is coupled to the recently developed icosahedral nonhydrostatic ICON‐A (icon‐aes‐1.3.00) global atmosphere model to yield the new ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 atmosphere‐aerosol model. The ICON‐A and ECHAM6.3 host models use different dynamical cores, parameterizations of vertical mixing due to sub‐grid scale turbulence, and parameter settings for radiation balance tuning. Here, we study the role of the different host models for simulated aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and evaluate impacts of using HAM2.3 and the ECHAM6‐HAM2.3 two‐moment cloud microphysics scheme on several meteorological variables. Sensitivity runs show that a positive AOT bias over the subtropical oceans is remedied in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because of a different default setting of a parameter in the moist convection parameterization of the host models. The global mean AOT is biased low compared to MODIS satellite instrument retrievals in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3, but the bias is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because negative AOT biases over the Amazon, the African rain forest, and the northern Indian Ocean are no longer compensated by high biases over the sub‐tropical oceans. ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 shows a moderate improvement with respect to AOT observations at AERONET sites. A multivariable bias score combining biases of several meteorological variables into a single number is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 compared to standard ICON‐A and standard ECHAM6.3. In the tropics, this multivariable bias is of similar magnitude in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and in ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3. In the extra‐tropics, a smaller multivariable bias is found for ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 than for ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by a High–Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model Over the United States and China

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a large fraction of warm-season precipitation and generate hazardous weather with substantial socio-economic impacts. Uncertainties in convection parameterizations in climate models limit our understanding of MCS characteristics and reliability of future projection. We examine the MCS simulation from the global 14-km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) without cumulus parameterization against satellite observation from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) during 2001-2008. We focus on MCSs over the central U.S. and eastern China where MCSs prevail from March to August. A process-oriented tracking method incorporating both cloud and precipitation criteria is used to identify and track MCSs. About 140/100 MCSs initiate in the central U.S./eastern China per warm season and most of them initiate east of high mountains and in coastal regions. The frequency distribution of MCS lifetime is well captured in NICAM. But the simulated MCSs have stronger precipitation, smaller precipitation area, and larger cold cloud system than observed in both regions, which may be caused by weak entrainment as it is not well resolved at 14 km resolution. Here, the simulated MCS number is also underestimated in summer. By examining the climatological and MCS large-scale environments, the significant underestimation of MCS number in summer over the central U.S. may be attributed to the large climatological dry bias in the atmosphere. For China, mean moisture in summer is well simulated but deficiency in capturing the dynamic condition related to the coastal topography for triggering convection may have contributed to underestimation of MCS even in a sufficiently moist environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗