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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Broad Spectrum Antifungal Pond Protection

To decrease operating costs associated with fungal infections in algal crops used for biofuel production, we developed bacterial consortia that displayed antifungal properties. These bacteria were grown in culture with algae species without any additional operating costs or need for re-inoculation with bacteria. These co-cultures maintained their antifungal properties for the entirety of the project period and increased mean time to failure (MTTF) by up to 350% when challenged with high levels of fungal pests. Multiple fungal and fungus-like pests were tested and the consortia showed efficacy against three species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Janthinobacter additions reduce rotifer grazing of microalga Microchloropsis salina in biotically complex communities

Grazing and parasitism in algal production systems are significant causes of crop loss. Biological control of algal ponds, such as application of protective bacteria, represents a promising alternative to current mitigation strategies. The major barriers to probiotic methods are the lack of identified protective bacteria and uncertainty of scale-up effects, including potential negative interactions with the resident algal microbiome. Here, we report that application of Janthinobacter lividum affords robust protection against rotifer (Brachionus plicatilis) grazing on Microchloropsis salina. Protection was observed at laboratory scale from live bacteria and solvent extract additions as well as in biologically complex communities from bacterial additions to outdoor mesocosms. J. lividum persisted in outdoor communities for at least 3 days following addition, and did not lead to selective exclusion of specific taxa in the resident microbiome. These results demonstrate that J. lividum can provide protection against grazers in these diverse communities, without severe effects on the resident microbiome. Our results suggest that J. lividum is a promising treatment to mitigate algal crop losses due to pests. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of an ecologically-informed approach to algal crop management that will aid future applications in the biological control of algal ponds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Approaches to investigate crop responses to ozone pollution: from O 3 -FACE to satellite-enabled modeling

Ozone (O 3 ) is a damaging air pollutant to crops. As one of the most reactive oxidants known, O 3 rapidly forms other reactive oxygen species (ROS) once it enters leaves through stomata. Those ROS in turn can cause oxidative stress, reduce photosynthesis, accelerate senescence, and decrease crop yield. To improve and adapt our feed, fuel, and food supply to rising O 3 pollution, a number of Free Air Concentration Enrichment (O 3 -FACE) facilities have been developed around the world and have studied key staple crops. In this review, we provide an overview of the FACE facilities and highlight some of the lessons learned from the last two decades of research. We discuss the differences between C 3 and C 4 crop responses to elevated O 3 , the possible trade-off between productivity and protection, genetic variation in O 3 response within and across species, and how we might leverage this observed variation for crop improvement. We also highlight the need to improve understanding of the interaction between rising O 3 pollution and other aspects of climate change, notably drought. Finally, we propose the use of globally modeled O 3 data that are available at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions to expand upon the research conducted at the limited number of global O 3 -FACE facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Saturated Bioenergy Buffers: Site Suitability Classification and Estimated Areas of Candidate Sites in the U.S. Midwest Under Three Scenarios

The loss of nutrients applied to tile-drained row-crop fields is a critically important component of agriculture’s impact on surface water quality, because drain tiles provide a short circuit to ditches and creeks, resulting in rapid nutrient loss. This nutrient loss ultimately advances eutrophication and hypoxia, i.e., the creation of dead zones in bodies of water, both locally and regionally (for example, in western Lake Erie and the Gulf of Mexico). Saturated buffers help address the tile-drainage water quality problem, and incorporating bioenergy crops into saturated bioenergy buffers could provide both environmental protection and an additional source of income for farmers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

From Farm to Flight: CoverCress as a Low Carbon Intensity Cash Cover Crop for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production. A Review of Progress Towards Commercialization

Thlaspi arvense L. (Field Pennycress; pennycress) is being converted into a winter-annual oilseed crop that confers cover crop benefits when grown throughout the 12 million-hectares U.S. Midwest. To ensure a fit with downstream market demand, conversion involves not only improvements in yield and maturity through traditional breeding, but also improvements in the composition of the oil and protein through gene editing tools. The conversion process is similar to the path taken to convert rapeseed into Canola. In the case of field pennycress, the converted product that is suitable as a rotational crop is called CoverCress™ as marketed by CoverCress Inc. or golden pennycress if marketed by others. Off-season integration of a CoverCress crop into existing corn and soybean hectares would extend the growing season on established croplands and avoid displacement of food crops or ecosystems while yielding up to 1 billion liters of seed oil annually by 2030, with the potential to grow to 8 billion liters from production in the U.S. Midwest alone. The aviation sector is committed to carbon-neutral growth and reducing emissions of its global market, which in 2019 approached 122 billion liters of consumption in the U.S. and 454 billion liters globally. The oil derived from a CoverCress crop is ideally suited as a new bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, biodiesel and other value-added coproducts. Through a combination of breeding and genomics-enabled mutagenesis approaches, considerable progress has been made in genetically improving yield and other agronomic traits. With USDA-NIFA funding and continued public and private investments, improvements to CoverCress germplasm and agronomic practices suggest that field-scale production can surpass 1,680 kg ha -1 (1,500 lb ac -1 ) in the near term. At current commodity prices, economic modeling predicts this level of production can be profitable across the entire supply chain. Two-thirds of the grain value is in oil converted to fuels and chemicals, and the other one-third is in the meal used as an animal feed, industrial applications, and potential plant-based protein products. In addition to strengthening rural communities by providing income to producers and agribusinesses, cultivating a CoverCress crop potentially offers a myriad of ecosystem services. The most notable service is water quality protection through reduced nutrient leaching and reduced soil erosion. Biodiversity enhancement by supporting pollinators’ health is also a benefit. While the efforts described herein are focused on the U.S., cultivation of a CoverCress crop will likely have a broader application to regions around the world with similar agronomic and environmental conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decreased land use intensity improves surface soil quality on marginal lands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has been a major factor in land transitions out of intensive row-crop management on marginally productive lands in the central United States. While CRP can protect these more environmentally sensitive lands against erosion and potential nutrient loss, information on how CRP affects soil quality over time is limited. Using a chronosequence with 0–40 yr of CRP conversion history, we evaluated soil quality under different land use intensities (CRP, pasture, row crop) using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Effects of slope classes (higher [14–25%] and lower [2–14%]) and soil depth (0–120 cm) were also evaluated. Our results show that the soils were functioning at 84 and 78% of their theoretical capacity under CRP and row crop, respectively. Conversion to CRP enhanced overall soil quality by increasing soil biological, physical, and chemical attributes, but soil nutrient availability decreased due to the absence of fertilizer application. Increasing soil organic C (SOC) enhanced overall soil quality because of its impact on soil biological, physical, chemical, and nutrient conditions. Conversion to CRP will likely have greater benefits for more environmentally sensitive soils (i.e., higher slope) as demonstrated by structural equation modeling. Land use effects were also depth dependent, with more prominent effects within the 0-to-5-cm than the 5-to-15-cm depth increment. Overall, our methods focused on key soil quality indicators, confirmed ecological benefits of CRP conversion, and provided guidance for improved and simplified land management recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Development of Vegetative Oil Sorghum: From Lab-to-Field

Biomass crops engineered to accumulate energy-dense triacylglycerols (TAG or ‘vegetable oils’) in their vegetative tissues have emerged as potential feedstocks to meet the growing demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Unlike oil palm and oilseed crops, the current commercial sources of TAG, vegetative tissues, such as leaves and stems, only transiently accumulate TAG. In this report, we used grain (Texas430 or TX430) and sugar-accumulating ‘sweet’ (Ramada) genotypes of sorghum, a high-yielding, environmentally resilient biomass crop, to accumulate TAG in leaves and stems. We initially tested several gene combinations for a ‘push-pull-protect’ strategy. The top TAG-yielding constructs contained five oil transgenes for a sorghum WRINKLED1 transcription factor (‘push’), a Cuphea viscosissima diacylglycerol acyltransferase (DGAT; ‘pull’), a modified sesame oleosin (‘protect’) and two combinations of specialized Cuphea lysophosphatidic acid acyltransferases and medium-chain acyl-acyl carrier protein thioesterases. Though intended to generate oils with medium-chain fatty acids, engineered lines accumulated oleic acid-rich oil to amounts of up to 2.5% DW in leaves and 2.0% DW in stems in the greenhouse, 36-fold and 49-fold increases relative to wild-type (WT) plants, respectively. Under field conditions, the top-performing event accumulated TAG to amount to 5.5% DW in leaves and 3.5% DW in stems, 78-fold and 58-fold increases, respectively, relative to WT TX430. Transcriptomic and fluxomic analyses revealed potential bottlenecks for increased TAG accumulation. Overall, our studies highlight the utility of a lab-to-field pipeline coupled with systems biology studies to deliver high vegetative oil sorghum for SAF and renewable diesel production.

Biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards engineering ectomycorrhization into switchgrass bioenergy crops via a lectin receptor‐like kinase

Summary Soil‐borne microbes can establish compatible relationships with host plants, providing a large variety of nutritive and protective compounds in exchange for photosynthesized sugars. However, the molecular mechanisms mediating the establishment of these beneficial relationships remain unclear. Our previous genetic mapping and whole‐genome resequencing studies identified a gene deletion event of a Populus trichocarpa lectin receptor‐like kinase gene PtLecRLK1 in Populus deltoides that was associated with poor‐root colonization by the ectomycorrhizal fungus Laccaria bicolor . By introducing PtLecRLK1 into a perennial grass known to be a non‐host of L. bicolor , switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), we found that L. bicolor colonizes ZmUbipro‐PtLecRLK1 transgenic switchgrass roots, which illustrates that the introduction of PtLecRLK1 has the potential to convert a non‐host to a host of L. bicolor . Furthermore, transcriptomic and proteomic analyses on inoculated‐transgenic switchgrass roots revealed genes/proteins overrepresented in the compatible interaction and underrepresented in the pathogenic defence pathway, consistent with the view that pathogenic defence response is down‐regulated during compatible interaction. Metabolomic profiling revealed that root colonization in the transgenic switchgrass was associated with an increase in N‐containing metabolites and a decrease in organic acids, sugars, and aromatic hydroxycinnamate conjugates, which are often seen in the early steps of establishing compatible interactions. These studies illustrate that PtLecRLK1 is able to render a plant susceptible to colonization by the ectomycorrhizal fungus L. bicolor and shed light on engineering mycorrhizal symbiosis into a non‐host to enhance plant productivity and fitness on marginal lands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of vegetative oil sorghum: From lab‐to‐field

Summary Biomass crops engineered to accumulate energy‐dense triacylglycerols (TAG or ‘vegetable oils’) in their vegetative tissues have emerged as potential feedstocks to meet the growing demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Unlike oil palm and oilseed crops, the current commercial sources of TAG, vegetative tissues, such as leaves and stems, only transiently accumulate TAG. In this report, we used grain (Texas430 or TX430) and sugar‐accumulating ‘sweet’ (Ramada) genotypes of sorghum, a high‐yielding, environmentally resilient biomass crop, to accumulate TAG in leaves and stems. We initially tested several gene combinations for a ‘push‐pull‐protect’ strategy. The top TAG‐yielding constructs contained five oil transgenes for a sorghum WRINKLED1 transcription factor (‘push’), a Cuphea viscosissima diacylglycerol acyltransferase (DGAT; ‘pull’), a modified sesame oleosin (‘protect’) and two combinations of specialized Cuphea lysophosphatidic acid acyltransferases and medium‐chain acyl‐acyl carrier protein thioesterases. Though intended to generate oils with medium‐chain fatty acids, engineered lines accumulated oleic acid‐rich oil to amounts of up to 2.5% DW in leaves and 2.0% DW in stems in the greenhouse, 36‐fold and 49‐fold increases relative to wild‐type (WT) plants, respectively. Under field conditions, the top‐performing event accumulated TAG to amount to 5.5% DW in leaves and 3.5% DW in stems, 78‐fold and 58‐fold increases, respectively, relative to WT TX430. Transcriptomic and fluxomic analyses revealed potential bottlenecks for increased TAG accumulation. Overall, our studies highlight the utility of a lab‐to‐field pipeline coupled with systems biology studies to deliver high vegetative oil sorghum for SAF and renewable diesel production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changes in global land use and CO 2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?

Land use change (LUC) CO 2 emissions associated with bioenergy production depend on the amount of land required to produce bioenergy crops, the carbon stored in such crops (including in the leaves, stalk, roots and soil), and the carbon emitted when another land cover is directly or indirectly displaced as a result. In this study, we use a global integrated assessment model [the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)] to explore the differences in estimates of LUC CO 2 emissions for two crops (corn and switchgrass) used to produce ethanol in the United States under alternative assumptions about natural lands protection. Varying the latter assumptions for corn ethanol results in net LUC CO 2 emissions between 7 and 41 gCO 2 per MJ of ethanol, whereas varying the same assumptions for switchgrass ethanol results in net emissions between -26 and 14 gCO 2 per MJ of ethanol. The low-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be fully protected everywhere, which leads to significant cropland intensification. The high-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be unprotected everywhere, leading to greater cropland expansion and associated conversion of unmanaged forest and pasture. Results from this study could be used to inform scenarios of future energy system change or life cycle assessment of biofuels for which LUC emissions would be an input.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A co-opted steroid synthesis gene, maintained in sorghum but not maize, is associated with a divergence in leaf wax chemistry

Significance Virtually all above-ground plant surfaces, such as leaf and stem exteriors, are covered in a cuticle: a wax-infused polyester. This waxy biocomposite is the largest interface between Earth’s biosphere and atmosphere. Its chemical composition is not only highly tuned to mediate nonstomatal water loss, but it also self-assembles to produce superhydrophobic surfaces, protects against UV radiation, and contains bioactive compounds that help resist microbial attack. Developing fundamental knowledge of waxy biocomposites, particularly those on crop species, is a prerequisite for an understanding of their structure–function relationships. Here, we uncover a likely genetic basis for the presence and absence, respectively, of triterpenoids in the leaf waxes of sorghum and maize—compounds previously associated with creating heat-tolerant cuticular water barriers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overexpression of the rice BAHD acyltransferase AT10 increases xylan-bound p-coumarate and reduces lignin in Sorghum bicolor

Abstract Background The development of bioenergy crops with reduced recalcitrance to enzymatic degradation represents an important challenge to enable the sustainable production of advanced biofuels and bioproducts. Biomass recalcitrance is partly attributed to the complex structure of plant cell walls inside which cellulose microfibrils are protected by a network of hemicellulosic xylan chains that crosslink with each other or with lignin via ferulate (FA) bridges. Overexpression of the rice acyltransferase OsAT10 is an effective bioengineering strategy to lower the amount of FA involved in the formation of cell wall crosslinks and thereby reduce cell wall recalcitrance. The annual crop sorghum represents an attractive feedstock for bioenergy purposes considering its high biomass yields and low input requirements. Although we previously validated the OsAT10 engineering approach in the perennial bioenergy crop switchgrass, the effect of OsAT10 expression on biomass composition and digestibility in sorghum remains to be explored. Results We obtained eight independent sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) transgenic lines with a single copy of a construct designed for OsAT10 expression. Consistent with the proposed role of OsAT10 in acylating arabinosyl residues on xylan with p -coumarate ( p CA), a higher amount of p -coumaroyl-arabinose was released from the cell walls of these lines upon hydrolysis with trifluoroacetic acid. However, no major changes were observed regarding the total amount of p CA or FA esters released from cell walls upon mild alkaline hydrolysis. Certain diferulate (diFA) isomers identified in alkaline hydrolysates were increased in some transgenic lines. The amount of the main cell wall monosaccharides glucose, xylose, and arabinose was unaffected. The transgenic lines showed reduced lignin content and their biomass released higher yields of sugars after ionic liquid pretreatment followed by enzymatic saccharification. Conclusions Expression of OsAT10 in sorghum leads to an increase of xylan-bound p CA without reducing the overall content of cell wall FA esters. Nevertheless, the amount of total cell wall p CA remains unchanged indicating that most p CA is ester-linked to lignin. Unlike other engineered plants overexpressing OsAT10 or a phylogenetically related acyltransferase with similar putative function, the improvements of biomass saccharification efficiency in sorghum OsAT10 lines are likely the result of lignin reductions rather than reductions of cell wall-bound FA. These results also suggest a relationship between xylan-bound p CA and lignification in cell walls.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Multilevel Selection May Facilitate Management of Arbuscular Mycorrhizae in Sustainable Agroecosystems

Studies in natural ecosystems show that adaptation of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and other microbial plant symbionts to local environmental conditions can help ameliorate stress and optimize plant fitness. This local adaptation arises from the process of multilevel selection, which is the simultaneous selection of a hierarchy of groups. Studies of multilevel selection in natural ecosystems may inform the creation of sustainable agroecosystems through developing strategies to effectively manage crop microbiomes including AM symbioses. Field experiments show that the species composition of AM fungal communities varies across environmental gradients, and that the biomass of AM fungi and their benefits for plants generally diminish when fertilization and irrigation eliminate nutrient and water limitations. Furthermore, pathogen protection by mycorrhizas is only important in environments prone to plant damage due to pathogens. Consequently, certain agricultural practices may inadvertently select for less beneficial root symbioses because the conventional agricultural practices of fertilization, irrigation, and use of pesticides can make these symbioses superfluous for optimizing crop performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine how multilevel selection influences the flow of matter, energy, and genetic information through mycorrhizal microbiomes in natural and agricultural ecosystems, and propose testable hypotheses about how mycorrhizae may be actively managed to increase agricultural sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nth-plant scenario for forest resources and short rotation woody crops: Biorefineries and depots in the contiguous US

Estimating the US potential of woody material is of vital importance to ensure cost-effective supply logistics and develop a sustainable bioenergy and bioproducts industry. We analyzed a mature conversion technology for woody resources for the contiguous US that takes advantage of economies of scale: the nth-plant. Here, we developed a database to quantify the total accessible woody biomass within a distributed network of preprocessing depots and biorefineries considering both quality specifications for conversion and a target cost to compete with fossil fuels. We considered two categories of woody biomass: 1) forest residues from trees, tops and limbs produced from conventional thinning and timber harvesting operations as well as non-timber tree removal; and 2) short rotation woody crops such as poplar, willow, pine, and eucalyptus. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to analyze scenarios with woody feedstock blends at variable biomass ash contents and cost targets at the biorefinery. When considering a target cost of 85.51 dollars/dry ton (2016$) at the biorefinery, the maximum accessible biomass from forest residues in 2040 remained constant at 106 million dry tons regardless of ash targets. Including short rotation woody crops as part of the blend increased the total accessible biomass to 153 and 195 million dry tons at ash targets of 1% and 1.75%, respectively. We concluded from our analysis that woody resources could address about 55% of EPA’s (Environmental Protection Agency) target of 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long‐term changes in soil carbon and nitrogen fractions in switchgrass, native grasses, and no‐till corn bioenergy production systems

Cellulosic bioenergy is a primary land-based climate mitigation strategy, with soil carbon (C) storage and nitrogen (N) conservation as important mitigation elements. Here, we present 13 years of soil C and N change under three cellulosic cropping systems: monoculture switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a five native grasses polyculture, and no-till corn (Zea mays L.). Soil C and N fractions were measured four times over 12 years. Bulk soil C in the 0–25 cm depth at the end of the study period ranged from 28.4 (± 1.4 se) Mg C ha −1 in no-till corn, to 30.8 (± 1.4) Mg C ha −1 in switchgrass, and to 34.8 (± 1.4) Mg C ha −1 in native grasses. Mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) ranged from 60% to 90% and particulate organic matter (POM) from 10% to 40% of total soil C. Over 12 years, total C as well as both C fractions persisted under no-till corn and switchgrass and increased under native grasses. In contrast, POM N stocks decreased 33% to 45% across systems, whereas MAOM N decreased only in no-till corn and by less than 13%. Declining POM N stocks likely reflect pre-establishment land use, which included alfalfa and manure in earlier rotations. Root production and large soil aggregate formation explained 69% (p < 0.001) and 36% (p = 0.024) of total soil C change, respectively, and 60% (p = 0.020) and 41% (p = 0.023) of soil N change, demonstrating the importance of belowground productivity and soil aggregates for producing and protecting soil C and conserving soil N. Differences between switchgrass and native grasses also indicate a dependence on plant diversity. Soil C and N benefits of bioenergy crops depend strongly on root productivity and pre-establishment land use.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking cropland transitions: A comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data

There are a growing number of land cover data available for the conterminous United States, supporting various applications ranging from biofuel regulatory decisions to habitat conservation assessments. These datasets vary in their source information, frequency of data collection and reporting, land class definitions, categorical detail, and spatial scale and time intervals of representation. These differences limit direct comparison, contribute to disagreements among studies, confuse stakeholders, and hamper our ability to confidently report key land cover trends in the U.S. Here we assess changes in cropland derived from the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) dataset from the U.S. Geological Survey and compare them with analyses of three established land cover datasets across the coterminous U.S. from 2008-2017: (1) the National Resources Inventory (NRI), (2) a dataset Lark et al. 2020 derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and (3) a dataset from Potapov et al. 2022. LCMAP reports more stable cropland and less stable noncropland in all comparisons, likely due to its more expansive definition of cropland which includes managed grasslands (pasture and hay). Despite these differences, net cropland expansion from all four datasets was comparable (5.18-6.33 million acres), although the geographic extent and type of conversion differed. LCMAP projected the largest cropland expansion in the southern Great Plains, whereas other datasets projected the largest expansion in the northwestern and central Midwest. Most of the pixel-level disagreements (86%) between LCMAP and Lark et al. 2020 were due to definitional differences among datasets, whereas the remainder (14%) were from a variety of causes. Cropland expansion in the LCMAP likely reflects conversions of more natural areas, whereas cropland expansion in other data sources also captures conversion of managed pasture to cropland. The particular research question considered (e.g., habitat versus soil carbon) should influence which data source is more appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗