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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Counterfactual Decision Tree

Counterfactual is the term used to describe a "business-as-usual" scenario which used as a baseline to compare against a new project, allowing the calculation of net impacts for a life cycle analysis (LCA). The choice of counterfactual is critical for determining the results from LCA and must be carefully justified to ensure a fair and accurate comparison. Using forest residues as an example, this decision tree illustrates decision points to be considered for sustainable biomass sourcing and provides a framework for estimating the carbon emissions or storage under the "business-as-usual” scenarios for biomass otherwise destined for use in Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) projects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS1993

Automated Analysis of a Large-Scale Sky Survey: The SKICAT System

We describe the application of decision tree based classification techniques to the development of an automated tool for the reduction of a large scientific data set. The primary benefits of the SKICAT approach are increased data reduction throughput, repeatability, and consistency of classification.

data analysis image databases↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Boosted Decision Trees to Select High Quality Measurements in the Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

This thesis presents the implementation and evaluation of a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) model to improve the selection of high-quality track measurements in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. The Mu2e experiment is a high-energy physics experiments seeking to observe a rare theoretical physics process known as Charged Lepton Flavor Violation. A significant challenge faced by the Mu2e experiment are so-called background events, which are events whose data mimics that of the rare physics process the experiment seeks to observe. Without a mechanism to reduce background, it would be impossible to know whether Charged Lepton Flavor Violation occurred or not. To this end, high-quality track measurements must be distinguished from low-quality track measurements. A track can be conceived of as the reconstructed path of a particle that traveled through the Mu2e detector. In addition to other data, data about such tracks is stored using a C++-based framework, specific to the domain of high-energy physics, known as ROOT. A boosted decision tree model was trained using ROOT’s Toolkit For Multivariate Analysis by leveraging variables ancillary to track quality. In evaluation, the BDT achieves a ROC-AUC of 0.927 in discriminating good-quality tracks from poor-quality tracks. Such a score is indicative of both strong discrimination and strong generalization. Subsequently, it is shown that applying a BDT-based quality cut to the distribution of particle momenta significantly enhances the signal-to-background distinction for signal electrons, paving the way for improved sensitivity to Charged Lepton Flavor Violation.

Mullany, Brendan T. [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000818888↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Language Models (LLMs) for Energy Systems Research

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) in energy systems research promises transformative results, as demonstrated in this work, particularly in the realms of information retrieval and legal document analysis. We have developed a chat-based interface, specifically designed to query an extensive corpus of technical reports from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This interface capitalizes on the natural language processing capabilities of LLMs, providing future consumers of NREL research with a user-friendly platform to access and extract valuable information from technical documents, thus enhancing the dissemination of research to the public. In addition to information retrieval, we have employed LLMs to extract renewable energy siting ordinances from a variety of legal documents, a task traditionally driven by significant human labor. This automated extraction not only supports the ongoing development of the high-impact NREL siting ordinance database but also ensures the database's accuracy and comprehensiveness. Crucially, we have augmented the performance of LLMs through the integration of a decision tree framework, resulting in a substantial improvement in extraction accuracy. Comparative analysis with manual efforts has shown that this approach not only rivals but also significantly surpasses human accuracy, heralding increased reliability in legal document analysis for energy systems research. To democratize access to these advancements and foster collaborative research, we introduce the "Energy Language Model" (ELM), an open-source software package. ELM encapsulates the methodologies and tools developed in this work, providing researchers and practitioners with a robust toolkit to conduct similar analyses within their respective domains. Through these contributions, this work underscores the immense potential of LLMs in revolutionizing energy systems research, improving accuracy, efficiency, and accessibility in the field.

automation↗
NASA NTRS1980

Theory of the decision/problem state

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

Dieterly, D. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗
NASA NTRS2019

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved classification tree analysis of high cost modules based upon an axiomatic definition of complexity

Identification of high cost modules has been viewed as one mechanism to improve overall system reliability, since such modules tend to produce more than their share of problems. A decision tree model was used to identify such modules. In this current paper, a previously developed axiomatic model of program complexity is merged with the previously developed decision tree process for an improvement in the ability to identify such modules. This improvement was tested using data from the NASA Software Engineering Laboratory.

Tian, Jianhui↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward the First Search for Bound Neutron Oscillation into Antineutron in a Liquid Argon TPC

This note presents current progress for a neutron-antineutron oscillation ($n–\overline{n}$) search in MicroBooNE paving the way for the first search analysis of such process in a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC). Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) algorithms were used to select signal $n–\overline{n}$ events over cosmogenic backgrounds. The CNN-only, BDT-only, and the combined (CNN+BDT) methods were demonstrated on the Monte-Carlo signal and background events. Validation of the CNNonly and the BDT-only methods was carried out on a small dataset of MicroBooNE Run1 off-beam data, setting the starting point toward further improvement of the analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

IViz-OT (Intrusion Detection Visualizer for Operational Technology Network) [SWR-22-63]

The Visualizer dashboard provides grid operator highly-trusted alarming environment for an ongoing or potential cyber-attack based on system anomalies and network-based verification. Once anomalies are detected by the IDS tool (HIDES, NREL SWR-19-65), this platform stores the signatures or alert logs that are generated by the intrusion detector, lays out the detailed summary of the possible alerts, and maps these attacks with high-level scenarios. These scenarios are later combined to define a final event using a decision tree approach and a final report is generated out of this tool for further forensic analysis. It also supports authentication and authorization to support roles-based access control (RBAC) for users and a group of people.

Singh, Vivek Kumar↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2020

Desktop Audits: Overview, Case Studies, Guidance

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 requires that federal agencies audit 25% of their 3.1 billion square feet of covered facilities each year. Several newer, advanced options such as monitoring-based commissioning, fault detection and diagnostics, and energy management systems can help support data collection and analysis to be used for EISA compliance. The Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP’s) Audit Decision Tree, Audit Definitions, and FEMP Guidance can be used by Agencies to determine the best approaches to evaluate their facilities. FEMP continues to develop additional resources to support agencies in meeting EISA compliance. This presentation gives an overview of desktop audits, including case studies and guidance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Diagnosis of Data Integrity Attacks in Solar Farms Based on Multilayer Long Short-Term Memory Network

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming more vulnerable to cyber threats. In response to this emerging concern, developing cyber-secure power electronics converters has received increased attention from the IEEE Power Electronics Society that recently launched a cyber-physical-security initiative. Here this letter proposes a deep sequence learning based diagnosis solution for data integrity attacks on PV systems in smart grids, including dc–dc and dc–ac converters. The multilayer long short-term memory networks are used to leverage time-series electric waveform data from current and voltage sensors in PV systems. The proposed method has been evaluated in a PV smart grid benchmark model with extensive quantitative analysis. As a comparison, we have evaluated classic data-driven methods, including K-nearest neighbor, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and convolutional neural network. Comparison results verify performances of the proposed method for detection and diagnosis of various data integrity attacks on PV systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗