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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Protecting Biodiversity through Forest Management: Lessons Learned and Strategies for Success

The strong links among biodiversity, forests, and climate change require that forces affecting them be addressed simultaneously. Here we summarize findings and lessons learned from decades of field work exploring ways to balance conservation with development, while effectively addressing drivers of deforestation and biodiversity loss. Examples are provided for approaches to forest management that support both biodiversity conservation and greenhouse gas mitigation. Causes of deforestation are reviewed and recommendations provided for specific steps that would slow the loss of high conservation-value forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

We explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300 by using the Community Earth System Model, . Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO 2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigating dominant characteristics of fires across the Amazon during 2005-2014 through satellite data synthesis of combustion signatures

Estimates of fire emissions remain uncertain due to limited constraints on the variations in fire characteristics. Here we demonstrate the utility of space-based observations of smoke constituents in addressing this limitation. We introduce a satellite-derived smoke index (SI) as an indicator of the dominant phase of large-scale fires. This index is calculated as the ratio of the geometric mean of observed fractional enhancements (due to fire) in carbon monoxide and aerosol optical depth to that of nitrogen dioxide. Here we assess the usefulness of this index on fires in the Amazon. We analyze the seasonal, regional, and interannual joint distribution of SI and fire radiative power (FRP) in relation to fire hotspots, land cover, Drought Severity Index, and deforestation rate estimates. We also compare this index with an analogous quantity derived from field data or emission inventories. Our results show that SI changes from low (more flaming) to high (more smoldering) during the course of a fire season, which is consistent with the changes in observed maximum FRPs from high to low. We also find that flaming combustion is more dominant in areas where deforestation fires dominate, while smoldering combustion has a larger influence during drought years when understory fires are more likely enhanced. Lastly, we find that the spatiotemporal variation in SI is inconsistent with current emission inventories. Although we recognize some limitations of this approach, our results point to the utility of SI as a proxy for overall combustion efficiency in the parameterization of fire emission models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Removal of Woody Riparian Vegetation Substantially Altered a Stream Ecosystem in an Otherwise Undisturbed Grassland Watershed

Riparian zones are key interfaces between stream and terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, we know of no whole-watershed experiments that cut only woody vegetation in the riparian zone in an otherwise intact watershed to isolate the role of riparian zones on stream ecology. We removed all of the woody riparian vegetation (from 10- and 30-m-wide buffers in headwaters and main channels, respectively) for 5 km of stream in a single watershed while leaving the remainder of the grassland watershed un-impacted. We assessed water chemistry changes 3 years before and 3 years after riparian wood removal and in two neighboring control watersheds with a before–after, control-impact design and analysis. Riparian woody removal caused 10–100-fold increases in mean stream water nitrate concentrations and pulses of high nitrate for 3 years thereafter. Other nutrients and total suspended solids increased 2–25 times for the 3 years of post-removal. In-stream rates of gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production had large treatment effect sizes but also high variance among samples. Past studies of whole-watershed deforestations showed similar water quality responses to our riparian deforestation. Riparian zones of grassland streams are sensitive to disturbance and likely impart relatively greater influence on stream structure and function than the upslope of the watershed. Finally, our results further emphasize the role of riparian zones in biogeochemically linking aquatic and terrestrial habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Anthropogenic Land Use Change Impacts on Carbonaceous Aerosol and Implications for Climate and Air Quality

Future anthropogenic land use change (LUC) may alter atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic aerosol) burden by perturbing biogenic and fire emissions. However, there has been little investigation of this effect. We examine the global evolution of future carbonaceous aerosol under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projected reforestation and deforestation scenarios using the CESM2 model from present‐day to 2100. Compared to present‐day, the change in future biogenic volatile organic compounds emission follows changes in forest coverage, while fire emissions decrease in both projections, driven by trends in deforestation fires. The associated carbonaceous aerosol burden change produces moderate aerosol direct radiative forcing (−0.021 to +0.034 W/m 2 ) and modest mean reduction in PM 2.5 exposure (−0.11 μg/m 3 to −0.23 μg/m 3 ) in both scenarios. We find that future anthropogenic LUC may be more important in determining atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol burden than direct anthropogenic emissions, highlighting the importance of further constraining the impact of LUC.>

anthropogenic land use change↗
DOE OSTI2018

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. In conclusion, improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Overview: Precipitation characteristics and sensitivities to environmental conditions during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

This study provides an overview of precipitation processes and their sensitivities to environmental conditions in the Central Amazon Basin near Manaus during the GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA experiments. Here, this study takes advantage of the numerous measurement platforms and instrument systems operating during both campaigns to sample cloud structure and environmental conditions during 2014 and 2015; the rainfall variability among seasons, aerosol loading, land surface type, and topography has been carefully characterized using these data. Differences between the wet and dry seasons were examined from a variety of perspectives. The rainfall rates distribution, total amount of rainfall, and raindrop size distribution (the mass-weighted mean diameter) were quantified over both seasons. The dry season generally exhibited higher rainfall rates than the wet season and included more intense rainfall periods. However, the cumulative rainfall during the wet season was 4 times greater than that during the total dry season rainfall, as shown in the total rainfall accumulation data. The typical size and life cycle of Amazon cloud clusters (observed by satellite) and rain cells (observed by radar) were examined, as were differences in these systems between the seasons. Moreover, monthly mean thermodynamic and dynamic variables were analysed using radiosondes to elucidate the differences in rainfall characteristics during the wet and dry seasons. The sensitivity of rainfall to atmospheric aerosol loading was discussed with regard to mass-weighted mean diameter and rain rate. This topic was evaluated only during the wet season due to the insignificant statistics of rainfall events for different aerosol loading ranges and the low frequency of precipitation events during the dry season. The impacts of aerosols on cloud droplet diameter varied based on droplet size. For the wet season, we observed no dependence between land surface type and rain rate. However, during the dry season, urban areas exhibited the largest rainfall rate tail distribution, and deforested regions exhibited the lowest mean rainfall rate. Airplane measurements were taken to characterize and contrast cloud microphysical properties and processes over forested and deforested regions. Vertical motion was not correlated with cloud droplet sizes, but cloud droplet concentration correlated linearly with vertical motion. Clouds over forested areas contained larger droplets than clouds over pastures at all altitudes. Finally, the connections between topography and rain rate were evaluated, with higher rainfall rates identified at higher elevations during the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 , and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), E FF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , E LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr -1 . For the year 2014 alone, E FF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr -1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . G ATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of -0.6 [range of -1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO 2 ) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from E FF and 25 % from E LUC . Finally, this living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 , and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), E FF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹, E LUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G ATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S LAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For year 2013 alone, E FF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G ATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S LAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. G ATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E FF and smaller and opposite changes between S OCEAN and S LAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO 2 yr⁻¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO 2 ) for 1870–2014, about 75% from E FF and 25% from E LUC . This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), E FF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , E LUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . For year 2015 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr -1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . G ATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E FF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink ( S LAND ) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO 2 ) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from E FF and 25 % from E LUC . This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020)

Land-use change (LUC) is a major source of global anthropogenic carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. However, current estimates of LUC-induced emissions vary widely with differences in data and models, making it challenging to identify and manage emissions hotspots by location and LUC activity. Here, we estimated spatially explicit carbon fluxes associated with global major gross land-use transitions based on a new bookkeeping model (i.e., LUCE). Between 1961 and 2020, LUC induced 215 and 142 Pg C of global carbon emissions and removals, respectively, resulting in average net emissions (E LUC ) of 1.21 Pg C year −1 . Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa dominated global E LUC with 69% of 60-year cumulative emissions, or about 86% between 2001 and 2020. Forest-related LUC activities (e.g., deforestation, reforestation) contributed largely to both regional and global carbon fluxes. Our findings shed new light on identifying LUC-induced emissions hotspots and managing land for climate mitigation and conservation.

bookkeeping model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

A large and persistent carbon sink in the World s forests

The terrestrial carbon (C) sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem C studies, we estimated a total forest sink of 2.4 0.4 Pg C yr 1 globally for 1990-2007. We also estimated a source of 1.3 0.7 Pg C yr 1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 0.5 Pg C yr 1 partially compensated by a C sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 0.5 Pg C yr 1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 0.8 Pg C yr 1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. This forest sink is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and constraints of ocean and atmospheric sinks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

INWARD MOTIONS IN THE OUTER SOLAR CORONA BETWEEN 7 AND 12 R {sub ⊙}: EVIDENCE FOR WAVES OR MAGNETIC RECONNECTION JETS?

DeForest et al. used synoptic visible-light image sequences from the COR2 coronagraph on board the STEREO-A spacecraft to identify inbound wave motions in the outer corona beyond 7 solar radii and inferred, from the observation, that the Alfvén surface separating the magnetically dominated corona from the flow dominated wind must be located beyond at least 12 solar radii from the Sun over polar coronal holes and beyond 15 solar radii in the streamer belt. Here, we attempt identification of the observed inward signal by theoretically reconstructing height-speed diagrams and comparing them to the observed profiles. Interpretation in terms of Alfvén waves or Alfvénic turbulence appears to be ruled out by the fact that the observed signal shows a deceleration of inward motion when approaching the Sun. Fast magnetoacoustic waves are not directly ruled out in this way, as it is possible for inward waves observed in quadrature, but not propagating exactly radially, to suffer total reflection as the Alfvén speed rises close to the Sun. However, the reconstructed signal in the height-speed diagram has the wrong concavity. A final possibility is decelerating reconnection jets, most probably from component reconnection, in the accelerating wind: the profile in this case appears to match the observations very well. This interpretation does not alter the conclusion that the Alfvén surface must be at least 12 solar radii from the photosphere. Further observations should help constrain this process, never identified previously in this way, in the distance range from 7 to 12 solar radii.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2010

Climate change and forests in India: note from the guest editors

Forestry is one of the most important sectors in the context of climate change. It lies at the center-stage of global mitigation and adaptation efforts. Yet, it is one of the least understood sectors, especially in tropical zones, which constitute a significant portion of the global forests. Recently, there has been a growing interest in forests in addressing global climate change. The IPCC Assessment Report 4 (2007) Chapters related to forests have highlighted the limited number of studies on the impact of climate change on forests at the regional, national and sub-national level, while policy makers need information at these scales. Further, implication of projected climate change on mitigation potential of forest sector is only briefly mentioned in the IPCC report, with limited literature to support the conclusions. India is one among the top ten nations in the world in terms of forest cover. It is also sixth among the tropical countries in terms of forested area. As IPCC Assessment Report 5 work is about to be initiated soon, studies on the impact of climate change on forests as well as the mitigation potential of the forest sector, particularly at regional and national level, will be of great interest to the scientific and policy community. In order to conserve the carbon stored in forests and to reduce CO2 emissions from the forest sector, the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism is now being finalized under the UNFCCC. In this context, climate change itself may affect the mitigation potential significantly, and it is important to understand how vulnerable the forest carbon stock (biomass and soil) in the tropics is to the projected climate change. In fact, there is a need to study the impact of climate change on forests for all the major forested countries

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗