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52 records · Page 3

Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗

Coherent Pulsed Lidar Sensing of Wake Vortex Position and Strength, Winds and Turbulence in the Terminal Area

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has field tested a 2.0 gm, 100 Hertz, pulsed coherent lidar to detect and characterize wake vortices and to measure atmospheric winds and turbulence. The quantification of aircraft wake-vortex hazards is being addressed by the Wake Vortex Lidar (WVL) Project as part of Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), which is under the Reduced Spacing Operations Element of the Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) Program. These hazards currently set the minimum, fixed separation distance between two aircraft and affect the number of takeoff and landing operations on a single runway under Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). The AVOSS concept seeks to safely reduce aircraft separation distances, when weather conditions permit, to increase the operational capacity of major airports. The current NASA wake-vortex research efforts focus on developing and validating wake vortex encounter models, wake decay and advection models, and wake sensing technologies. These technologies will be incorporated into an automated AVOSS that can properly select safe separation distances for different weather conditions, based on the aircraft pair and predicted/measured vortex behavior. The sensor subsystem efforts focus on developing and validating wake sensing technologies. The lidar system has been field-tested to provide real-time wake vortex trajectory and strength data to AVOSS for wake prediction verification. Wake vortices, atmospheric winds, and turbulence products have been generated from processing the lidar data collected during deployments to Norfolk (ORF), John F. Kennedy (JFK), and Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airports.

Brockman, Philip↗

Design and Analysis of Corridors for UAM Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is predicted to provide alternate modes of transportation for cargo and passengers in the urban areas. Integration of UAM operations into the National Airspace System is a challenge especially around large airport. The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps) suggests new airspace structures for UAM operations such as corridors where FAA air traffic control (ATC) will not be expected to provide services. This paper presents a design for corridors in the Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) area that attempts to minimize air traffic controller interactions with UAM pilots and operators. The corridor and vertiports are then analyzed with respect to Class B separation criteria and wake advisory criteria. The results show that for the corridors designed for the DFW area and presented in this research, in some cases Class B separation criteria are not available between UAM corridors and legacy traffic due to the geometry of the airport. It shows that wake advisory criteria were not met for some segments in North Flow traffic but were generally met in South Flow. This means that some corridor segments at DFW airport will not be available for a given airport flow and may need new placements, which need further investigation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Benefits Assessment for Tactical Runway Configuration Management Tool

The Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM) software tool was developed to provide air traffic flow managers and supervisors with recommendations for airport configuration changes and runway usage. The objective for this study is to conduct a benefits assessment at Memphis (MEM), Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) and New York's John F. Kennedy (JFK) airports using the TRCM tool. Results from simulations using the TRCM-generated runway configuration schedule are compared with results using historical schedules. For the 12 days of data used in this analysis, the transit time (arrival fix to spot on airport movement area for arrivals, or spot to departure fix for departures) for MEM departures is greater (7%) than for arrivals (3%); for JFK, there is a benefit for arrivals (9%) but not for departures (-2%); for DFW, arrivals show a slight benefit (1%), but this is offset by departures (-2%). Departure queue length benefits show fewer aircraft in queue for JFK (29%) and MEM (11%), but not for DFW (-13%). Fuel savings for surface operations at MEM are seen for both arrivals and departures. At JFK there are fuel savings for arrivals, but these are offset by increased fuel use for departures. In this study, no surface fuel benefits resulted for DFW. Results suggest that the TRCM algorithm requires modifications for complex surface traffic operations that can cause taxi delays. For all three airports, the average number of changes in flow direction (runway configuration) recommended by TRCM was many times greater than the historical data; TRCM would need to be adapted to a particular airport's needs, to limit the number of changes to acceptable levels. The results from this analysis indicate the TRCM tool can provide benefits at some high-capacity airports. The magnitude of these benefits depends on many airport-specific factors and would require adaptation of the TRCM tool; a detailed assessment is needed prior to determining suitability for a particular airport.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12387-DND

Fast-time wake prediction models are semi-empirical, and are designed to predict aircraft wake vortex information behind a generating aircraft. They are developed using theoretical concepts and often calibrated with data obtained from field measurements, laboratory studies, or numerical simulations. They rely upon inputs representing the generating aircraft (such as weight, airspeed, wingspan, lateral position, and altitude) and atmospheric environment (such as ambient winds, turbulence, and temperature lapse rate). Other input may include the type of aircraft (e.g., B-747- 400). Output from these models may include time histories of the wake vortex strength, and position, as well as a prediction of the uncertainties in strength and position. Fast-time models should provide solutions in a fraction of a second, and hence is an enabling technology able to perform in a real-time operational system, such as dynamic spacing systems envisioned by the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System or other Super Density Operations concepts. Other applications of fast-time models include 1) guidance for wake separation standards for new aircraft, 2) optimization of separation standards for existing aircraft, 3) guidance for setting vertical separation standards during cruise, 4) accident reconstructions, and 5) testing of new concepts for safe increases in airport capacity for both single and multiple runway configurations. Fast-time models are based on a number of assumptions which limit their accuracy and range of application. For example, they do not predict the meandering vortex paths that can result from the wake interaction with atmospheric turbulence. However, these models should account for the mean vortex position and may predict the level of uncertainty. This presentation describes a study in which comparative evaluations of fast-time wake transport and decay models were conducted using data sets from previous field programs taken at MEM (1995), DFW (1997, 1999, 2000), and Denver (2005, 2006) airports. These data sets contain, meteorological data, lidar measurements of wake vortices, and the aircraft parameters associated with these vortices.

Fred H Proctor↗

Exploration of Near-Term Potential Routes and Procedures for Urban Air Mobility

Urban air mobility is gaining interest as the need for On Demand Mobility in today's congested traffic is becoming high in metropolitan areas. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is envisioned as a concept to transport passengers and cargo safely and efficiently using innovative aircraft in the urban areas. It is expected to improve mobility for the general public, decongest road traffic, reduce transport time and reduce the strain on existing public transport networks. There exist several challenges to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) such as integration of procedures with airspace and the airport, noise levels that are acceptable to the general public, public safety, public acceptance, vehicle certification, and more. Most of the research in the United States and European skies (DLR - German Aerospace Center) related to urban areas has focused on small UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) flights (NASA's UTM (UAS Traffic Management) research) and their integration with the airspace and building safe operations in densely populated areas. Previous studies on UAM have focused on fast time simulations of the routes that are separated via a separation service and network of routes. Similarly, research in Europe has focused on the approach profile for these innovative aircraft, vertiports and battery life among others. UAM as a part of the On-Demand Mobility effort has provided some guidelines for operations as shown below: Does not require additional ATC (Air Traffic Control) infrastructure; Does not impose additional workload on ATC; Does not restrict operations of traditional airspace users; Will meet appropriate safety thresholds and requirements; Will prioritize operational scalability; Will allow flexibility where possible and structure where necessary. This paper explores potential routes and procedures in a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) experiment that could be applied in the near-term to allow integration of UAM flights into the airspace as well as a large airport. The airspace that was explored was Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace managed by the DFW East Tower in South Flow only. In addition, Dallas Love Field (DAL) and Addison (ADS) airspace were also part of the testbed. The initial set of routes investigated in this study were published helicopter routes in the DFW area. Figure 1 shows class B airspace in DFW area and the origin/destination city pairs where UAM flights flew along with helicopter routes shown in blue. The research focused on exploring procedures for integrating UAM flights into Class Bravo and Class Delta airspace. Three different communication procedures, evaluated with three different levels of UAM traffic, are shown in Table 1. The current day routes were evaluated with current day communication procedures were explored as the first condition. The current day routes were also evaluated in the second condition with reduced communications, which was assumed due to the presence of a Letter Of Agreement (LOA). The purpose of the LOA was to reduce the verbiage associated with pilots getting clearance to Class B airspace from the controllers, pre-assigning beacons codes to the UAM flights, separate routes by assigning altitudes and speeds to flights going in any one direction. Flights were expected to automatically change frequency when exiting Class B airspace, thus transition points for entry and exit points were also specified in the LOA.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Improved Throughput with Cooperating Futuristic Airspace Management Components

An experiment was conducted to integrate airspace management tools that would typically be confined to either the en route or the terminal airspace to explore the potential benefits of their communication to improve arrival capacity. A NAS-wide simulation was configured with a new concept component that used the information to reconfigure the terminal airspace to the capacity benefit of the airport. Reconfiguration included a dynamically expanding and contracting TRACON area and a varying number of active arrival runways, both automatically selected to accommodate predicted volume of traffic. ATL and DFW were selected for the study. Results showed significant throughput increase for scenarios that are considered to be over-capacity for current day airport configurations. During periods of sustained demand for ATL 2018, throughput increased by 26 operations per hour (30%) and average delay was reduced from 18 minutes to 8 minutes per flight when using the dynamic TRACON. Similar results were obtained for DFW with 2018 traffic levels and for ATL with 2006 traffic levels, but with lower benefits due to lower demand.

Glaab, Patricia C.↗

Fuel Consumption and Emissions from Airport Taxi Operations

Developed a method to calculate fuel consumption and emissions of phases of taxi operations. Results at DFW showed that up to 18% of fuel can be saved by eliminating stop-and-go situations. Developed an energy efficient and environmentally friendly surface concept: Spot and Runway Departure Advisory (SARDA) tool. The SARDA tool has been identified as a potential candidate for a technology transfer to the FAA.

Jung, Yoon↗

Numerical simulation of the 2 August 1985 DFW microburst with the three-dimensional Terminal Area Simulation System

A model simulation is performed for a small, intense thunderstorm which occurred at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport on August 2, 1985, leading to the crash of a commercial jetliner. The simulation is conducted with the three-dimensional Terminal Area Simulation System, a nonhydrostatic cloud model. The simulation is in good agreement with observations of the storm. It is found that for similar events, very little warning time may be possible as warning is based only on the surface level winds.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

DFW (Dallas-Ft. Worth) microburst on August 2, 1985

The features of the microburst on August 2, 1985, related to the Delta 191 accident during the approach to Runway 17L of the Dallas-Ft. Worth Airport is described. Both radar and satellite data, along with ground-based measurements, were used in determining the characteristics of the parent cloud which spawned the most complicated microburst winds ever analyzed by the author. The detailed reconstruction of the airflow and the aircraft's maneuver were made possible by a series of computer analyses of the Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) readout. Both measured and computed values in color diagrams that can be evaluated readily by meteorologists, pilots, structural engineers, and other interested persons in preventing microburst-related accidents in future years are presented.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Severe winds in the DFW microburst measured from two aircraft

Advanced analytical methods are applied to the digital flight data and Air Traffic Control radar records from two airliners, Delta flight 191 and American flight 539, that penetrated a microburst at the Dallas/Ft. Worth airport on August 2, 1985. The results for Delta 191 (which crashed) show that the aircraft encountered a strong downburst followed by a strong outflow accompanied by large and rapid changes in the vertical wind. The rapid changes in the vertical wind detected near the ground are attributed to vortex-induced turbulence. The next following aircraft, American 539, made a go-around 110 sec after Delta 191 and traversed the microburst at an altitude of about 2500 ft above the ground. The measured winds during this go-around indicate a broad pattern of downflow in the microburst, with regions of upflow at the extreme edges. The combined results indicate a microburst that was increasing in size with vortex-induced turbulence embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. These wind measurements provide a realistic description of the microburst wind environment that can be used in simulator studies and pilot training, and provide a standard of comparison for ongoing experiments and modeling of microbursts involving vortex rings.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

Development of Near-term Urban Air Mobility Routes and Airspace Integration

Growing interest in Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has been demonstrated by a great deal of investment in related research made by industry, government, and academia. Based on this research effort along with considerations of the maturing concept for UAM airspace integration, a cognitive walkthrough exercise and a human-in-the-loop simulation were conducted with controller subject matter experts (SMEs) to evaluate Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) current day helicopter routes for near-term use as UAM routes. One of the outcomes of this work is a set of heuristics that should be applied when designing UAM routes in the future. The following heuristics were identified as critical to UAM route design: the proximity of routes to surrounding airports (including approach and departure paths of traditional commercial traffic), the configuration of surrounding airports, avoiding congested or heavily populated areas, avoiding route segments that would go through several sectors, avoiding route segments that would go in and out of Class B airspace, creating routes outside of Class B airspace when able, using routes with two-way, altitude-separated traffic when able, minimizing the length of the route, avoiding commonly placed Temporary Flight Restrictions, and creating Non-Movement Areas or UNICOM Areas. This paper describes each of these identified heuristics and relevant examples based on a human-in-the-loop study conducted using the DFW area airspace.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Corridor Design and Analysis for UAM Operations

The Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept is a part of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), a joint initiative between the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), NASA, and industry to develop an air transportation system that uses new electric (i.e., green) air vehicles in geographical areas previously underserved by traditional aviation. Market forecast studies predict that there will be demand for alternate modes of air transportation using electric Vertical Take-off and Landing aircraft. UAM expands transportation networks by introducing short flights to move people and goods around metropolitan areas​. UAM is expected to improve mobility for the public, decongest road traffic, reduce trip time, and decrease strain on existing public transportation networks. Various challenges exist to make the introduction of UAM operations successful in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). These include but are not limited to integration with existing airports and airspace, provision of air traffic services (e.g., separation), vehicle design and certification, and community acceptance. The focus of this paper is on integration of UAM operations into the NAS via introduction of new airspace structures. UAM will operate within a regulatory, operational, and technical environment that is incorporated into the NAS​. As per the UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps), the FAA retains regulatory authority and is responsible for establishing operational parameters and maintaining oversight. The FAA’s UAM ConOps describes flights at low altitudes (below 5,000 ft) with minimal disruption to established conventional aircraft traffic and limited voice interactions with the Air Traffic Control (ATC). Early stages of UAM may use existing procedures to safely integrate UAM with conventional flights. This would involve flying under Part 91 Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and using voice for communications. The initial UAM ecosystem will utilize the current infrastructure such as routes, helipads, and ATC services, where practicable. ​A NASA study explored the use of existing helicopter routes in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace for initial UAM operations with a Letter of Agreement (LOA) that included procedures to request a Class B (controlled airspace) clearance. The research showed that the chosen approach was feasible for near-term, low-demand UAM traffic, but was not scalable. The growth of operations in today’s aviation system has resulted in airspace reorganization and procedures to ensure safety and efficiency as traffic rates increase. One proposed operating innovation that can help with the scalability of UAM is establishing routes and corridors. This may look similar to the Area Navigation (RNAV) procedures used today to streamline operations into busy airports. However, instead of FAA automation systems and ATC managing the flow of traffic, some UAM concepts envision a third-party service provider performing this role as part of the Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) network. The FAA’s UAM ConOps posits that new airspace structures such as UAM corridors include the following design criteria: 1) Minimal impact on existing NAS operations, 2) no or minimal additional ATC services, 3) public interest considerations such as noise, safety, and security, and 4) customer needs. The airspace available in urban environments is limited by the height of buildings, the effect of weather including wind gusts, privacy needs, and a clearance envelope. The new airspace structure would need to be designed around large airports and urban areas where the initial market demand is likely to exist. NASA has started evaluating airspace in the Dallas Fort Worth area to design new airspace structures, keeping the first two design criteria in mind. It is assumed that there will be an on-board pilot-in-command, and the flights will operate under VFR in Visual Meteorological Conditions. Corridors will be required in controlled airspace, whereas UAM operations can fly in uncontrolled Class G and E airspace using current day rules. Keeler et. al identified factors and heuristics for development of routes for UAM operations for integration with airspace close to large airports such as Dallas Fort Worth and Dallas Love Field. This paper describes the heuristics applied to define the corridors, analyzes them with respect to legacy traffic and presents key results.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Exploration of Near-Term Potential Routes and Procedures for Urban Air Mobility

This paper investigates routes and procedures for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), which aims to reduce congestion on the roads and highways by offering air taxi as an alternative to driving. The routes and procedures being explored are current-day helicopter routes along with different communication procedures that are available as tools in the near-term. Three different levels of UAM traffic were evaluated in the Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) area. The current-day helicopter routes were modified to separate them from traditional traffic, and a Letter of Agreement (LOA) was introduced in some of the conditions to reduce verbal communications. We found that modifications to the routes and introduction of LOA helped increase the number of UAM flights that the controllers reported they could manage and reduce their communications, which made controller self-reported workload more operationally acceptable. However, the self-reported workload experienced by busy airport towers cannot be effectively managed via the usage of LOA and modified helicopter routes, suggesting there is an opportunity to re-think roles and responsibilities of the UAM system participants.

Verma, Savita A.↗

Flight Deck Robustness/Conformance Testing with a Surface Management System: An Integrated Pilot-Controller Human-in-the-Loop Surface Operations Simulation

An integrated flight deck and controller human-in-the-loopsimulation was conducted with a total of 120 Dallas-Ft.Worth (DFW) taxi-out operations. In this first integratedPilot-Controller Spot and Runway Departure Advisor(SARDA) simulation, ATC Ground and Local Controllersused the SARDA decision support tool to plan and issuespot release clearances and departure clearances. TheAirport and Terminal Area Simulator (ATAS), a simulatedB737NG piloted, in turn, by 10 commercial transportparticipant pilots, was integrated into the realisticsimulation traffic environment. In the simulation,controllers used SARDA advisories to issue spot release,taxi route, and runway/departure radio voice clearances toall aircraft on the airport surface. Simulation resultsindicated that under a variety of observed pilot/aircraftperformance variations, SARDA yielded controlleradvisories that were: Supportive of current-day time-basedoperations; Compatible with controllers’ expectations;Predictive of actual take-off times; and, Adaptable to offnominalevents. An Information Sharing Display, thatpresented SARDA sequence and timing information on theflight deck, was considered useful for both NextGenoperations and current-day time-based Traffic ManagementInitiative (TMI) operations.

Foyle, David C.↗