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This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).
A Comprehensive Characterization of Microorganisms and Allergens in Spacecraft (SWAB) will use advanced molecular techniques to comprehensively evaluate microbes on board the space station, including pathogens (organisms that may cause disease). It also will track changes in the microbial community as spacecraft visit the station and new station modules are added. This study will allow an assessment of the risk of microbes to the crew and the spacecraft. Research Summary: Previous microbial analysis of spacecraft only identify microorganisms that will grow in culture, omitting greater than 90% of all microorganisms including pathogens such as Legionella (the bacterium which causes Legionnaires' disease) and Cryptosporidium (a parasite common in contaminated water) The incidence of potent allergens, such as dust mites, has never been systematically studied in spacecraft environments and microbial toxins have not been previously monitored. This study will use modern molecular techniques to identify microorganisms and allergens. Direct sampling of the ISS allows identification of the microbial communities present, and determination of whether these change or mutate over time. SWAB complements the nominal ISS environmental monitoring by providing a comparison of analyses from current media-based and advanced molecular-based technologies.
BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.
This slide presentation opens with views of the shuttle in various stages of preparation for launch, a few moments after launch prior to external fuel tank separation, a few pictures of the earth,and several pictures of astronomical interest. The presentation reviews the factors effecting the risks of infectious disease during space flight, such as the crew, water, food, air, surfaces and payloads and the factors that increase disease risk, the factors affecting the risk of infectious disease during spaceflight, and the environmental factors affecting immunity, such as stress. One factor in space infectious disease is latent viral reactivation, such as herpes. There are comparisons of the incidence of viral reactivation in space, and in other analogous situations (such as bed rest, or isolation). There is discussion of shingles, and the pain and results of treatment. There is a further discussion of the changes in microbial pathogen characteristics, using salmonella as an example of the increased virulence of microbes during spaceflight. A factor involved in the risk of infectious disease is stress.
An urban area was studied through the use of the inventory-by-surrogate method rather than by direct interpretation of photographic imagery. Prior uses of remote sensing in urban and public research are examined. The effects of crowding, poor housing conditions, air pollution, and street conditions on public health are considered. Color infrared photography was used to categorize land use features and the grid method was used in photo interpretation analysis. The incidence of shigella and salmonella, hepatitis, meningitis, tuberculosis, myocardial infarction and veneral disease were studied, together with mortality and morbidity rates. Sample census data were randomly collected and validated. The hypothesis that land use and residential quality are associated with and act as an influence upon health and physical well-being was studied and confirmed.
Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.
Background: The transmission of vectorborne infectious diseases is often influenced by environmental, meteorological and climatic parameters, because the vector life cycle depends on these factors. For example, the geophysical parameters relevant to malaria transmission include precipitation, surface temperature, humidity, elevation, and vegetation type. Because these parameters are routinely measured by satellites, remote sensing is an important technological tool for predicting, preventing, and containing a number of vectorborne infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue, West Nile virus, etc. Methods: A variety of NASA remote sensing data can be used for modeling vectorborne infectious disease transmission. We will discuss both the well known and less known remote sensing data, including Landsat, AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), EO-1 (Earth Observing One) ALI (Advanced Land Imager), and SIESIP (Seasonal to Interannual Earth Science Information Partner) dataset. Giovanni is a Web-based application developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. It provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data. After remote sensing data is obtained, a variety of techniques, including generalized linear models and artificial intelligence oriented methods, t 3 can be used to model the dependency of disease transmission on these parameters. Results: The processes of accessing, visualizing and utilizing precipitation data using Giovanni, and acquiring other data at additional websites are illustrated. Malaria incidence time series for some parts of Thailand and Indonesia are used to demonstrate that malaria incidences are reasonably well modeled with generalized linear models and artificial intelligence based techniques. Conclusions: Remote sensing data relevant to the transmission of vectorborne infectious diseases can be conveniently accessed at NASA and some other websites. These data are useful for vectorborne infectious disease surveillance and modeling.
In 2010, NASA implemented Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health, a formal occupational surveillance program for the U.S. astronaut corps. Because of the nature of the space environment, space medicine presents unique challenges and opportunities for epidemiologists. One such example is the use of telemedicine while crewmembers are in flight, where the primary source of information about crew health is verbal communication between physicians and their crewmembers. Due to restricted medical capabilities, the available health information is primarily crewmember report of signs and symptoms, rather than diagnoses. As epidemiologists at NASA, Johnson Space Center, we have shifted our paradigm from tracking diagnoses based on traditional terrestrial clinical practice to one in which we also incorporate reported symptomology as potential antecedents of disease. In this presentation we describe how characterization of reported signs and symptoms can be used to establish incidence rates for inflight immunologic events. We describe interdisciplinary data sources of information that are used in combination with medical information to analyze the data. We also delineate criteria for symptom classification inclusion. Finally, we present incidence tables and graphs to illustrate the final outcomes. Using signs and symptoms reported via telemedicine, the epidemiologists provide summary evidence regarding incidence of potential inflight medical conditions. These results inform our NASA physicians and scientists, and support evaluation of the occupational health risks associated with spaceflight.
Shifts in surface climate may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in the pre-Saharan zones of North Africa. Caused by Leishmania major, this form multiplies in the body of rodents serving as reservoirs of the disease. The parasite is then transmitted to human hosts by the bite of a Phlebotomine sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) that was previously fed by biting an infected reservoir. We examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the incidence of this ZCL as a function of surface climate indicators in two regions covering a large area of the semi-arid Pre-Saharan North Africa. Results suggest that in this area, changes in climate may have initiated a trophic cascade that resulted in an increase in ZCL incidence. We find the correlation between the rainy season precipitation and the same year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to be strong for both regions while the number of cases of ZCL incidence lags the precipitation and NDVI by 2 years. The zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis seasonal dynamic appears to be controlled by minimum temperatures and presents a 2-month lag between the reported infection date and the presumed date when the infection actually occurred. The decadal increase in the number of ZCL occurrence in the region suggests that changes in climate increased minimum temperatures sufficiently and created conditions suitable for endemicity that did not previously exist. We also find that temperatures above a critical range suppress ZCL incidence by limiting the vector's reproductive activity.
In Morocco, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases represent a public health concern. In this opinion paper, we propose to highlight chosen elements that have governed the drastic increase in the incidence of leishmaniases recorded in Morocco during the period between 1990 to 2010 in order to guide the prediction of the expansion of diseases and epidemic events. We highlight that the dispersion of the zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) form, caused by the Leishmania major parasite, appears to be closely related to that of its arthropod vector density, which is sensitive to changes in climate. The dissemination of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) was related to an increase in human travel and local tourism during the studied decades. These are linked to economic expansion and infrastructure development. Interestingly, the main ACL foci are spatially aligned with the highways, and their occurrence was synchronized with the building of transportation infrastructure. During the above-mentioned decades, the zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL)caused by Leishmania infantum has expanded from its historical northern territories, dispersing outwards in all directions. This spread follows the emergence of hamlets and villages connecting with major cities.
Astronauts experience psychological and physical stresses that may result in re-activation of latent viruses during spaceflight, potentially increasing the risk of disease among crew members. The shedding of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in the saliva of astronauts will increase during spaceflight. A total of 534 saliva specimens were collected from 11 EBV-seropositive astronauts before, during, and after four space shuttle missions. The presence of EBV DNA in saliva, assessed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), was used to determine shedding patterns before, during, and after spaceflight. EBV DNA was detected more frequently before flight than during (p less than 0.001) or after (p less than 0.01) flight. No significant difference between the in-flight and postflight periods was detected in the frequency of occurrence of EBV DNA. The increased frequency of shedding of EBV before flight suggests that stress levels may be greater before launch than during or after spaceflight.
The etiology, clinical presentation, and management of hypophosphatemia are reviewed. Phosphorus is a major intracellular anion and plays an important role in many biochemical pathways relating to normal physiologic functions. Approximately 60 to 90% of the 1 to 1.5 g of daily dietary phosphorus intake is absorbed, and of that amount, about two thirds is excreted in the urine. The overall incidence of hypophosphatemia is about 2 to 3% of all hospitalized patients. Factors associated with hypophosphatemia include phosphate-binding antacid therapy, nasogastric suction, liver disease, sepsis, alcoholism, and acidosis associated with diabetic ketoacidosis. Patients receiving parenteral nutrient solutions were also at higher risk for hypophosphatemia before the routine supplementation of these formulations with phosphate. Patients with hypophosphatemia may be asymptomatic or may experience weakness, malaise, anorexia, bone pain, and respiratory arrest. The major systems involved include the neuromuscular, hematologic, and skeletal systems. Phosphorus-containing products used to treat hypophosphatemia are a combination of monobasic and dibasic phosphate salts. Therefore, it is essential to calculate doses in millimoles rather than milligrams or milliequivalents to more accurately reflect the phosphorus concentration and to avoid potentially serious dosage errors. Normal daily requirements are readily maintained by dietary sources of phosphorus such as milk products or may be supplemented by phosphate-containing products administered orally or intravenously. Since phosphorus is a key factor in many organ systems, it is essential to monitor serum phosphorus concentrations in patients at risk for hypophosphatemia.
Electrical alternans represents a variation in the morphology of electrocardiographic complexes on an every-other-beat basis in an ABABAB... pattern. Apparent electrical alternans associated with pericardial effusion results from rotation of the heart in the pericardial sac, and not true alternation in electrical conduction patterns. In contrast, true electrical alternans results from an alternation in electrical conduction patterns in the heart itself. Repolarization alternans is true electrical alternans associated with the ST segment and T wave of the electrocardiogram (ECG). Here we will focus on T-wave alternans (TWA) and its association with susceptibility to ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Electrical alternans was reported in the literature as early as 1909. Historically, electrical alternans has been regarded as a fairly rare electrocardiographic abnormality. Case reports of electrical alternans have been associated with a variety of disease states, including acute ischemia, Prinzmetal's angina, a variety of electrolyte abnormalities, and the long QT syndrome. Interestingly, patients born with the prolonged QT syndrome have a very high incidence of sudden cardiac death at an early age. Schwartz and Malliani showed that patients with the prolonged QT syndrome who do not demonstrate alternans at rest, may evidence alternans during stress such as emotional excitement. Thus, over the years electrical alternans has been associated anecdotally with conditions associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. In 1948, Kalter reviewed the world literature on electrical alternans and found a total of 41 reported cases. In addition, he reviewed clinical ectrocardiograms from 6059 patients and found five new cases (incidence of less than 1 in 1000 patients). Interestingly, he found a very high mortality, 62%, associated with this condition. Despite the clinical associations reported in the literature, the consensus view of electrical alternans until recent years has been that alternans is an electrocardiographic curiosity rarely encountered in clinical practice which, when identified, does not have specific clinical significance.
About 20% of astronauts suffer postspaceflight presyncope. We studied pre- to postflight (5- to 16-day missions) cardiovascular responses to standing in 35 astronauts to determine differences between 1) men and women and 2) presyncopal and nonpresyncopal groups. The groups were presyncopal women, presyncopal men, and nonpresyncopal men based on their ability to stand for 10 min postflight. Preflight, women and presyncopal men had low vascular resistance, with the women having the lowest. Postflight, women experienced higher rates of presyncope (100 vs. 20%; P = 0.001) and greater losses of plasma volume (20 vs. 7%; P < 0.05) than men. Also, presyncopal subjects had lower standing mean arterial pressure (P < or = 0.001) and vascular resistance (P < 0.05), smaller increases in norepinephrine (P < or = 0.058) and greater increases in epinephrine (P < or = 0.058) than nonpresyncopal subjects. Presyncopal subjects had a strong dependence on plasma volume to maintain standing stroke volume. These findings suggest that postflight presyncope is greatest in women, and this can be ascribed to a combination of inherently low-resistance responses, a strong dependence on volume status, and relative hypoadrenergic responses. Conversely, high vascular resistance and postflight hyperadrenergic responses prevent presyncope.
The incidence of adolescent obesity is increasing dramatically in the United States with associated risks of hypertension, adverse lipid profiles, and Type II diabetes. Unless reversed, this trend predicts an epidemic of adult cardiovascular disease. Interventions at home, at school, and in the community are required to empower teens to increase physical activity and to modify eating habits. This article describes assessment for obesity-related health problems as well as scientific guidelines and research-based intervention strategies to decrease obesity in adolescents.
Astronauts face hazards during spaceflight, including space radiation exposure, isolation and confinement, traveling far distances from Earth, reduced gravity levels, and closed and hostile environments. These hazards drive the definition of human health and performance risks associated with spaceflight. NASA’s Human System Risk Board maintains the human spaceflight risk posture for in-mission risks, as well as post-flight, Long-Term Health (LTH)risks potentially occurring later in the astronaut’s life. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. Possible LTH risk outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH risk outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. There have been 144 medical conditions identified by NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team to be associated with LTH risk. Epidemiological studies have been performed for some of these conditions to determine if astronauts suffer from an increased prevalence or severity of the condition due to their spaceflight experience compared to a comparable cohort .Differences in astronaut mortality or morbidity due to spaceflight experience were not detected in several of these studies. There were two cases where a modest increase in the incidence rate of astronaut LTH outcomes was detected. The first suggested an increase in the incidence of melanoma cases in astronauts, where the number of cases in astronauts were similar to the elevated number of cases observed in airplane pilots. The second provided some evidence of elevated numbers of cardiovascular disease events in astronauts compared to an appropriate healthy comparator cohort, which may warrant additional investigation. The lack of detection of LTH risk outcomes should not ease concerns about astronaut LTH. The studies highlighted here constitute only a small portion of the potential LTH conditions that could occur. Once epidemiological studies are performed on all conditions, significant findings may be detected. The analysis of astronaut LTH also suffers from limited numbers of data points because of the limited numbers of astronauts overall and the even fewer who have reached an age where LTH outcomes may begin to manifest. As shuttle and ISS astronauts begin to age and increase the feasibility of analysis, LTH outcomes may be detected. An application of risk quantification is the use of risk metrics within trade studies for resource prioritization and decision making. Trade studies regarding countermeasures to LTH risk outcomes would benefit from a quantification of LTH risk. NASA has ground-based processes in place such as astronaut screening and access to continuous medical monitoring and care during and after their astronaut career which are the main methods for mitigating LTH risk. In-mission countermeasures, such as acceptable levels of medical care and available countermeasures to counter spaceflight related physiological decrements, can mitigate a poor health and performance status immediately post-flight. Identifying appropriate risk metrics, obtaining valid quantities for them, and tying them to LTH countermeasures are necessary steps for realizing their use in trade studies. This presentation will highlight the challenges associated with the identification, quantification, and utilization of LTH risk metrics
A repair/misrepair kinetic model for multiple radiation-induced lesions (mutation inactivation) is coupled to a two-mutation model of initiation-promotion in tissue to provide a parametric description of tumour prevalence in the mouse Harderian gland from high-energy and charge radiations. Track-structure effects are considered using an action-cross section model. Dose-response curves are described for gamma rays and relativistic ions, and good agreement with experiment is found. The effects of nuclear fragmentation are also considered for high-energy proton and alpha-particle exposures. The model described provides a parametric description of age-dependent cancer induction for a wide range of radiation fields. Radiosensitivity parameters found in the model for an initiation mutation (sigma 0 = 7.6 x 10(-10) cm2 and D0 = 148.0 Gy) are somewhat different than previously observed for neoplastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cell cultures (sigma 0 = 0.7 x 10(-10) cm2 and D0 = 117.0 Gy). We consider the two hypotheses that radiation acts solely as an initiator or as both initiator and promoter and make model calculations for fractionation exposures from gamma rays and relativistic Fe ions. For fractionated Fe exposures, an inverse-dose-rate effect is provided by a promotion hypothesis with an increase of 30% or more, dependent on the dose level and fractionation schedule, using a mutation rate for promotion similar to that of single-gene mutations.