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A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

The Contributions of Chemistry and Transport to Low Arctic Ozone in March 2011 Derived from Aura MLS Observations

Stratospheric and total columns of Arctic O3 (63-90 N) in late March 2011 averaged 320 and 349 DU, respectively. These values are 74 DU lower than averages for the previous 6 years. We use Aura MLS O3 observations to quantify the roles of chemistry and transport and find there are two major reasons for low O3 in March 2011: heterogeneous chemical loss and a late final warming that delayed the resupply of O3 until April. Daily vortex-averaged partial columns in the lowermost stratosphere (p greater than 133 hPa) and middle stratosphere (p less than 29 hPa) are unaffected by local heterogeneous chemistry and show a near total lack of transport into the vortex between late January and late March, contributing to the observed low column. The lower stratospheric (LS) column (133-29 hPa) is affected by both heterogeneous chemistry and transport. Low interannual variability of Aura MLS 0 3 columns and temperature inside the Arctic vortex (2004-2011) shows that the transport contribution to vortex O3 in fall and early winter is nearly the same each year. The descent of MLS N2O vortex profiles in 2011 provides an estimate of O3 transported into the LS column during late winter. By quantifying the role of transport we determine that PSC-driven chemical loss causes 80 (plus or minus 10) DU of vortex-averaged O3 loss by late March 2011. Without heterogeneous chemical loss, March 2011 vortex O3 would have been ~40 DU lower than normal due to the late final warming and resupply of O3 which did not occur until April.

Strahan, S. E.↗

Reductions of Antarctic ozone due to synergistic interactions of chlorine and bromine

The vertical column density of ozone observed in October over Antarctica has fallen precipitously over the past 10 yr. The concentration at Halley Bay (76 deg S, 27 deg W), expressed conventionally in Dobson units (DU), has dropped from about 300 DU in 1975 to less than 200 DU in 1984. Values in 1985 were even lower, comparable with the lowest values recorded anywhere on earth. It is suggested here that the loss of O3 in Antarctica may be attributed to catalysis of O3 recombination by a scheme in which the rate-limiting step is defined by the reaction of ClO + BrO - Cl + Br + O2. Concentrations of NO2 must be low and heterogeneous reactions involving particles in the polar stratospheric clouds must be an important element of the relevant chemistry. Industrial sources make important contributions to the contemporary budgets of both BrO and ClO and are likely to grow significantly in the future.

Mcelroy, M. B.↗

TOMS observations of total ozone in the 1986 Antarctic spring

Total ozone measurements by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite show the reappearance in 1986 of the extreme springtime Antarctic ozone minimum during September and October.The minimum total ozone amounts descended to 156 Dobson Units; the minimum October average of 185 DU was 27 DU higher than the corresponding average in 1985 and 5 DU less than the 1984 average. This behavior indicates a pause in the downward trend of recent years.

Krueger, A. J.↗

Total ozone changes in the 1987 Antarctic ozone hole

The development of the Antarctic ozone minimum was observed in 1987 with the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument. In the first half of August the near-polar (60 and 70 deg S) ozone levels were similar to those of recent years. By September, however, the ozone at 70 and 80 deg S was clearly lower than any previous year including 1985, the prior record low year. The levels continued to decrease throughout September until October 5 when a new record low of 109 DU was established at a point near the South Pole. This value is 29 DU less than the lowest observed in 1985 and 48 DU less than the 1986 low. The zonal mean total ozone at 60 deg S remained constant throughout the time of ozone hole formation. The ozone decline was punctuated by local minima formed away from the polar night boundary at about 75 deg S. The first of these, on August 15 to 17, formed just east of the Palmer Peninsula and appears to be a mountain wave. The second major minimum formed on September 5 to 7 again downwind of the Palmer Peninsula. This event was larger in scale than the August minimum and initiated the decline of ozone across the polar region. The 1987 ozone hole was nearly circular and pole centered for its entire life. In previous years the hole was perturbed by intrusions of the circumpolar maximum into the polar regions, thus causing the hole to be elliptical. The 1987 hole also remained in place until the end of November, a few days longer than in 1985, and this persistence resulted in the latest time for recovery to normal values yet observed.

Krueger, Arlin J.↗

Aerosol-associated changes in tropical stratospheric ozone following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

The large amount of sulfuric acid aerosol formed in the stratosphere by conversion of sulfur dioxide emitted by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (15.14 deg N, 120.35 deg E) in the Philippines around June 15, 1991, has had a pronounced effect on lower stratospheric ozone in the tropics. Measurements of stratospheric ozone in the tropics using electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) sondes before and after the eruption and the airborne UV differential absorption lidar (DIAL) system after the eruption are compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) measurements from several years before the eruption and ECC sonde measurements from the year prior to the eruption to determine the resulting changes. Ozone decreases of up to 33 % compared with SAGE II climatological values were found to be directly correlated with altitude regions of enhanced aerosol loading in the 16- to 28-km range. A maximum partial-column decrease of 29 +/- Dobson units (DU) was found over the 16- to 28-km range in September 1991 along with small increases (to 5.9 +/- 2 DU) from 28 to 31.5 km. A large decrease of ozone was also found at 4 deg to 8 deg S from May to August 1992, with a maximum decrease of 33 +/- 7 DU found above Brazzaville in July. Aerosol data form the visible channel of the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the visible wavelength of the UV DIAL system were used to examine the relationship between aerosol (surface area) densities and ozone changes. The tropical stratospheric ozone changes we observed in 1991 and 1992 are likely be explained by a combination of dynamical (vertical transport) perturbations, radiative perturbations on ozone photochemistry, and heterogeneous chemistry.

Grant, William B.↗

Meteor 3/total ozone mapping spectrometer observations of the 1993 ozone hole

The development of the springtime (September-November) Antarctic ozone hole was observed by the Meteor 3/total ozone mapping spectromter (TOMS) to result in the lowest ozone value, 85 DU (Dobson units) on October 8, 1993, ever measured by TOMS. During late September and early October the region of extremely low ozone values was centered on the geographical pole between 85 deg S and 90 deg S. The geographical extent of the ozone hole region, the area within the 220-DU contour, reached a maximum during the first week in October at a near-circular area covering 24 x 10(exp 6) sq km reaching to the southern tip of South America. This approximately matched the 1992 area record. After the maximum area was reached in early October, the 1993 ozone hole region was significantly larger than during 1992 throughout the remainder of the month of October. The very low ozone values over the Antarctic continent have been confirmed by independent ground-based data. Unlike 1992, the formation of the 1993 Antarctic ozone hole does not coincide with unusually low ozone values observed over most of the globe for the past 2 years. The most recent ozone data from Meteor 3/TOMS show that there has been a recovery at all latitudes from the extraordinarily low values observed during 1992 and part of 1993 after the June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Meteor 3/TOMS is described and compared with Nimbus 7/TOMS during the 1991 to May 1993 overlap period. Observations of the 1992 ozone hole are presented from both instruments and are shown to agree within 5 DU.

Herman, J. R.↗

Development and Demonstration of an Ada Test Generation System

In this project we have built a prototype system that performs Feasible Path Analysis on Ada programs: given a description of a set of control flow paths through a procedure, and a predicate at a program point feasible path analysis determines if there is input data which causes execution to flow down some path in the collection reaching the point so that tile predicate is true. Feasible path analysis can be applied to program testing, program slicing, array bounds checking, and other forms of anomaly checking. FPA is central to most applications of program analysis. But, because this problem is formally unsolvable, syntactic-based approximations are used in its place. For example, in dead-code analysis the problem is to determine if there are any input values which cause execution to reach a specified program point. Instead an approximation to this problem is computed: determine whether there is a control flow path from the start of the program to the point. This syntactic approximation is efficiently computable and conservative: if there is no such path the program point is clearly unreachable, but if there is such a path, the analysis is inconclusive, and the code is assumed to be live. Such conservative analysis too often yields unsatisfactory results because the approximation is too weak. As another example, consider data flow analysis. A du-pair is a pair of program points such that the first point is a definition of a variable and the second point a use and for which there exists a definition-free path from the definition to the use. The sharper, semantic definition of a du-pair requires that there be a feasible definition-free path from the definition to the use. A compiler using du-pairs for detecting dead variables may miss optimizations by not considering feasibility. Similarly, a program analyzer computing program slices to merge parallel versions may report conflicts where none exist. In the context of software testing, feasibility analysis plays an important role in identifying testing requirements which are infeasible. This is especially true for data flow testing and modified condition/decision coverage. Our system uses in an essential way symbolic analysis and theorem proving technology, and we believe this work represents one of the few successful uses of a theorem prover working in a completely automatic fashion to solve a problem of practical interest. We believe this work anticipates an important trend away from purely syntactic-based methods for program analysis to semantic methods based on symbolic processing and inference technology. Other results demonstrating the practical use of automatic inference is being reported in hardware verification, although there are significant differences between the hardware work and ours. However, what is common and important is that general purpose theorem provers are being integrated with more special-purpose decision procedures to solve problems in analysis and verification. We are pursuina commercial opportunities for this work, and will use and extend the work in other projects we are engaged in. Ultimately we would like to rework the system to analyze C, C++, or Java as a key step toward commercialization.

Source record↗

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) Maps from Nimbus 7 and Earth-Probe TOMS by the Modified-Residual Method: Validation, Evaluation and Trends based on Atlantic Regional Time Series - 1

The well-known wave-one pattern seen in tropical total ozone [Shiotani, 1992; Ziemke et al., 1996, 1998] has been used to develop a modified-residual (MR) method for retrieving time-averaged stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone column amount from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) over the 14 complete calendar years of Nimbus 7 observations (1979-1992) and from TOMS on the Earth-Probe (1996-present) and ADEOS platforms (1996- 1997). Nine- to sixteen-day averaged tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) maps, validated with ozonesondes, show a seasonality expected from dynamical and chemical influences. The maps may be viewed on a homepage: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/~tropo. Stratospheric column ozone, which is also derived by the modified-residual method, compares well with sondes (to within 6-7 DU) and with stratospheric ozone column derived from other satellites (within 8-10 DU). Validation of the TTO time-series is presently limited to ozonesonde comparisons with Atlantic stations and sites on the adjacent continents (Ascension Island, Natal, Brazil; Brazzaville); for the sounding periods, TTO at all locations agrees with the sonde record to +/-7 DU. TTO time-series and the magnitude of the wave-one pattern show ENSO signals in the strongest El Nifio periods from 1979-1998. From 12degN and 12degS, zonally averaged tropospheric ozone shows no significant trend from 1980-1990. Trends are also not significant during this period in localized regions, e.g. from just west of South America across to southern Africa. This is consistent with the ozonesonde record at Natal, Brazil (the only tropical ozone data publicly available for the 1980's), which shows a not statistically significant increase. The lack of trend in tropospheric ozone agrees with a statistical analysis based on another method for deriving TTO from TOMS, the so-called Convective-Cloud-Differential approach of Ziemke et al. [1998].

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Development Unit Configuration and Current Status of the MIP/MTERC Experiment

The Mars In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) Precursor (MIP) experiment package is planned for inclusion on the Mars 2001 Lander. This experiment package consists of five experiments whose purpose is to demonstrate the performance of various ISPP processes in-situ on Mars. The demonstrated ability to produce propellant for Mars Return Vehicles (MRV) is considered to be a necessary precursor to any future manned mission to Mars. The Mars Thermal Environment/Radiator Characterization (MTERC) experiment is part of the MIP package and is intended to determine the Mars night sky temperature as well as to characterize the performance degradation of radiators caused by environmental exposure on Mars over time. Radiators are needed as part of the ISPP process to remove heat from the Mars Atmosphere Acquisition and Compression (MAAC) CO2 sorption compressor. MTERC will provide the data needed to optimize the design of radiators for ISPP and other processes. A MTERC Development Unit (DU) has been fabricated and tested at JPL. The MTERC DU consists of 1) a radiator subassembly, 2) a motor/cover subassembly, 3) a differential temperature control circuit and motor control electronics circuit board, and 4) a command and data handling electronics circuit board. This paper will describe the operational theory and the configuration of the MTERC DU and will discuss the current status of the MTERC experiment development including some selected results of performance testing that has been completed prior to the ISRU III meeting.

Juanero, K. J.↗

Development Unit Configuration and Current Status of the MIP/MAAC Experiment

The Mars In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) Precursor (MIP) experiment package is planned for inclusion on the Mars 2001 Lander. This experiment package consists of five experiments whose purpose is to demonstrate the performance of various ISPP processes in-situ on Mars. The demonstrated ability to produce propellant for Mars Return Vehicles (MRV) is considered to be a necessary precursor to any future manned mission to Mars. The Mars Atmosphere Acquisition and Compression (MAAC) experiment is part of the MIP package and is intended to demonstrate that, by using a sorption compressor, CO2 can be preferentially adsorbed at about 6 torr from the Mars atmosphere during the night when the bed is cold then subsequently compressed to about 800 torr by heating the bed and desorbing CO2 during the day. The compressed CO2 produced by MAAC is to be fed to the Oxygen Generator Subsystem (OGS) where pure oxygen is to be produced. Pure oxygen is considered to be one of the primary constituents of a future manned MRV propellant system. A MAAC Development Unit (DU) has been fabricated and tested at JPL. The MAAC DU consists of 1) a sorption bed filled with a CO2 selective sorbent material, 2) a purge system to be used to periodically backflush non-CO2 gases from the sorbent bed during adsorption, 3) a JPL-developed gas-gap heat switch that allows heat transfer to a radiator for heat removal from the bed during the night time adsorption period and that impedes heat transfer during the day time desorption period, 4) a radiator to radiate heat to the night sky during the adsorption period, 5) a set of three isolation valves and connecting tubing. 6) two pressure transducers and several thermocouples for monitoring the MAAC operating conditions, and command and data handling electronics. This paper will describe the operational theory and the configuration of the MAAC DU and will discuss the current status of the MAAC experiment development including some selected results of performance testing that has been completed prior to the ISRU III meeting.

Karlmann, P. B.↗

Development Unit Configuration and Current Status of the MIP/MTERC Experiment

The Mars In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) Precursor (MIP) experiment package is planned for inclusion on the Mars 2001 Lander. This experiment package consists of five experiments whose purpose is to demonstrate the performance of various ISPP processes in-situ on Mars. The demonstrated ability to produce propellant for Mars Return Vehicles (MRV) is considered to be a necessary precursor to any future manned mission to Mars. The Mars Thermal Environment/Radiator Characterization (MTERC) experiment is part of the MIP package and is intended to determine the Mars night sky temperature as well as to characterize the performance degradation of radiators caused by environmental exposure on Mars over time. Radiators are needed as part of the ISPP process to remove heat from the Mars Atmosphere Acquisition and Compression (MAAC) C02 sorption compressor. MTERC will provide the data needed to optimize the design of radiators for ISPP and other processes. A MTERC Development Unit (DU) has been fabricated and tested at JPL. The MTERC DU consists of: (1) a radiator subassembly, (2) a motor/cover subassembly, (3) a differential temperature control circuit and motor control electronics circuit board, and (4) a command and data handling electronics circuit board. This paper will describe the operational theory and the configuration of the MTERC DU and will discuss the current status of the MTERC experiment development including some selected results of performance testing that has been completed prior to the ISRU III meeting.

Juanero, K. J.↗

Development Unit Configuration Status of the MIP/MAAC Experiment

The Mars In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) Precursor (MIP) experiment package is planned for inclusion on the Mars 2001 Lander. This experiment package consists of five experiments whose purpose is to demonstrate the performance of various ISPP processes in-situ on Mars. The demonstrated ability to produce propellant for Mars Return Vehicles (MRV) is considered to be a necessary precursor to any future manned mission to Mars. The Mars Atmosphere Acquisition and Compression (MAAC) experiment is part of the MIP package and is intended to demonstrate that, by using a sorption compressor, CO2 can be preferentially adsorbed at about 6 torr from the Mars atmosphere during the night when the bed is cold then subsequently compressed to about 800 torr by heating the bed and desorbing C02 during the day. The compressed CO2 produced by MAAC is to be fed to the Oxygen Generator Subsystem (OGS) where pure oxygen is to be produced. Pure oxygen is considered to be one of the primary constituents of a future manned MRV propellant system. A MAAC Development Unit (DU) has been fabricated and tested at JPL. The MAAC DU consists of: (1) a sorption bed filled with a CO2 selective sorbent material; (2) a purge system to be used to periodically backflush non-CO2 gases from the sorbent bed during adsorption; (3) a JPL-developed gas-gap heat switch that allows heat transfer to a radiator for heat removal from the bed during the night time adsorption period and that impedes heat transfer during the day time desorption period; (4) a radiator to radiate heat to the night sky during the adsorption period; (5) a set of three isolation valves and connecting tubing; (6) two pressure transducers and several thermocouples for monitoring the MAAC operating conditions, and command and data handling electronics. This paper will describe the operational theory and the configuration of the MAAC DU and will discuss the current status of the MAAC experiment development including some selected results of performance testing that has been completed prior to the ISRU III meeting.

Karlmann, P. B.↗

Recent Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in the Tropics

This paper presents a detailed characterization of tropical tropospheric column ozone variability on time scales varying from a few days to a solar cycle. The study is based on more than 20 years (1979 to the present) of tropospheric column ozone time series derived from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method using total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data. Results indicate three distinct regions in the tropics with distinctly three different zonal characteristics related to seasonal, interannual and solar variabilities. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Tropospheric column ozone in the Atlantic region peaks at about the same time (September-October) from 20 N to 20 S. The amplitude of the annual cycle, however, varies from about 3 to 6 Dobson unit (DU) from north to south of the equator. In comparison, the annual cycle in both the eastern and western Pacific is generally week and the phase varies from peak values in March and April in the northern hemisphere to September and October in the southern hemisphere. The interannual pattern in the three regions are also very different. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi biennial oscillation in the tropospheric column ozone which is out of phase with the stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region caused by high pollution and high concentration of ozone producing precursors. The observed pattern, however, does not seem to be related to the interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead, it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events, there is anomalously low ozone in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific indicating the effects of convectively driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in tropospheric column ozone in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale forest fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Chandra, S.↗

On the Size of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The Antarctic ozone hole is a region of extremely large ozone depletion that is roughly centered over the South Pole. Since 1979, the area coverage of the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million sq km. In the 8-year period from 1981 to 1989, the area expanded by 18 Million sq km. During the last 5 years, the hole has been observed to exceed 25 Million sq km over brief periods. In the spring of 2002, the size of the ozone hole barely reached 20 Million sq km for only a couple of days. We will review these size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. The area is derived from the area enclosed by the 220 DU total ozone contour. We will discuss the rationale for the choice of 220 DU: 1) it is located near the steep gradient between southern mid-latitudes and the polar region, and 2) 220 DU is a value that is lower than the pre-1979 ozone observations over Antarctica during the spring period. The phenomenal growth of the ozone hole was directly caused by the increases of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. In this talk, we will show the relationship of the ozone hole's size to the interannual variability of Antarctic spring temperatures. In addition, we will show the relationship of these same temperatures to planetary-scale wave forcings.

Newman, Paul A.↗

What Controls the Size of the Antarctic Ozone Hole?

The Antarctic ozone hole is a region of extremely large ozone depletion that is roughly centered over the South Pole. Since 1979, the area coverage of the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million square kilometers. In the 8-year period from 1981 to 1989, the area expanded by 18 Million square kilometers. During the last 5 years, the hole has been observed to exceed 25 Million square kilometers over brief periods. We will review these size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. The area is derived from the area enclosed by the 220 DU total ozone contour. We will discuss the rationale for the choice of 220 DU: 1) it is located near the steep gradient between southern mid-latitudes and the polar region, and 2) 220 DU is a value that is lower than the pre- 1979 ozone observations over Antarctica during the spring period. The phenomenal growth of the ozone hole was directly caused by the increases of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. In this talk, we will show the relationship of the ozone hole's size to the interannual variability of Antarctic spring temperatures. In addition, we will show the relationship of these same temperatures to planetary-scale wave forcings.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

Atmospheric Hydroperoxides in West Antarctica: Links to Stratospheric Ozone and Atmospheric Oxidation Capacity

The troposphere above the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) was sampled for hydroperoxides at 21 locations during 2-month-long summer traverses from 2000 to 2002, as part of US ITASE (International Transantarctic Scientific Expedition). First time quantitative measurements using an HPLC method showed that methylhydroperoxide (MHP) is the only important organic hydroperoxide occurring in the Antarctic troposphere, and that it is found at levels ten times those previously predicted by photochemical models. During three field seasons, means and standard deviations for hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) were 321+/-158 pptv, 650+/-176 pptv and 330+/-147 pptv. While MHP was detected, but not quantified in December 2000, levels in summer 2001 and 2002 were 317+128 pptv and 304+/-172.2 pptv. Results from firn air experiments and diurnal variability of the two species showed that atmospheric H2O2 is significantly impacted by a physical snow pack source between 76 and 90degS, whereas MHP is not. We show strong evidence of a positive feedback between stratospheric ozone and H2O2 at the surface. Between November-27 and December-12 in 2001, when ozone column densities dropped below 220 DU (means in 2000 and 2001 were 318 DU and 334 DU, respectively), H2O2 was 1.7 times that observed in the same period in 2000 and 2002, while MHP was only 80% of the levels encountered in 2002. Photochemical box model runs suggest that NO and OH levels on WAIS are closer to coastal values, while Antarctic Plateau levels are higher, confirming that region to be a highly oxidizing environment. The modeled sensitivity of H2O2 and particularly MHP to NO offers the potential to use atmospheric hydroperoxides to constrain the NO background and thus estimate the past oxidation capacity of the remote atmosphere. Index Terms: 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: composition and chemistry; 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (03 15,0325); 0736 Cryosphere: Snow (1827, 1863); 0724 Cryosphere: Ice Cores (4932) Keywords: hydrogen peroxide, methylhydroperoxide, Antarctica, air-snow exchange, stratospheric ozone, atmospheric oxidation capacity

Frey, Markus M.↗

Stratospheric Ozone in the Post-CFC Era

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975-1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post- CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Li, Feng↗