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Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

A Predictive Approach to Eliminating Errors in Software Code

NASA s Metrics Data Program Data Repository is a database that stores problem, product, and metrics data. The primary goal of this data repository is to provide project data to the software community. In doing so, the Metrics Data Program collects artifacts from a large NASA dataset, generates metrics on the artifacts, and then generates reports that are made available to the public at no cost. The data that are made available to general users have been sanitized and authorized for publication through the Metrics Data Program Web site by officials representing the projects from which the data originated. The data repository is operated by NASA s Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility, which is located in Fairmont, West Virginia, a high-tech hub for emerging innovation in the Mountain State. The IV&V Facility was founded in 1993, under the NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, as a direct result of recommendations made by the National Research Council and the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident. Today, under the direction of Goddard Space Flight Center, the IV&V Facility continues its mission to provide the highest achievable levels of safety and cost-effectiveness for mission-critical software. By extending its data to public users, the facility has helped improve the safety, reliability, and quality of complex software systems throughout private industry and other government agencies. Integrated Software Metrics, Inc., is one of the organizations that has benefited from studying the metrics data. As a result, the company has evolved into a leading developer of innovative software-error prediction tools that help organizations deliver better software, on time and on budget.

Source record↗

Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Environment

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of days that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). The meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity beneath the inversion, and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (approx. 15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between days with rapid low ceiling formation and days with low ceiling resulting from other mechanism. The AMU found that the vertical wind profile is the probable discerning factor between the rapidly-forming ceiling days and other low ceiling days at TTS. Most rapidly-developing low ceiling days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height, whereas other low ceiling days typically had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds ceilings below 8000 ft in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment, Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1993-2003 for days that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the morning Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation or noticeable fog bum-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the daytime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Follow-on work would expand the database to include nighttime cases, using a special enhancement of the infrared imagery for identifying areas of low clouds. The report presents two sample cases of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. These cases depict the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The cases also illustrate how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 20 event days with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The meteorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event days, since both types of days experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of days had a relatively moist environment beneath the inversion based below 8000 ft. In the 20 events identified, de onset of low ceilings occurred between 1200-1800 UTC in every instance. The distinguishing factor between the event and non-event days appears to be the vertical wind profile in the XMR sounding. Eighty-five percent of the event days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height in the lower to middle troposphere whereas 83% of the non-events had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. A clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates a warm advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motn and possible cloud formation. Meanwhile, a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates cold advection or sinking motion in a post-cold frontal environment.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Verification and Validation of MFiX-PIC

This work is aimed at verification and validation (V&V) of particle-in-cell (PIC) approach in the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX-PIC) which was officially released in April 2019. Under verification, the results from MFiX-PIC are compared with exact or analytical solutions, while experimental results are used for benchmarking under validation. The test suite consists of the following cases: Terminal velocity. Particle advection in time-varying flow field. Particle settling in a dense medium. Evaporation. Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Minimum fluidization. Mini-circulating fluidized bed. The cases reported in a format consistent with the existing Verification and Validation Manual (Musser et al., 2018) explore a wide range of flow velocities and concentration regimes. Only one case considered in this work verifies the implementation of heat and mass transfer routines in MFiX-PIC, while a few other studies are currently underway to further expand the validation space in reacting flows. This study highlights the need for a rigorous analysis to objectively quantify the effect of model parameters. In addition, there is a scarcity of high-quality experimental data in the literature suitable for validating PIC methodology. Future efforts would include performing experiments which provide results for a valuable database. While designing such experiments, particle count should be significant to have sufficient particles per parcel while maintaining an optimal parcel to cell volume ratio. Also, datasets should have objectively assessed experimental uncertainty whereby confidence interval in those measurements become more explicit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complete database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful, and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications, and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. George↗

Multivariate Statistical Analysis Software Technologies for Astrophysical Research Involving Large Data Bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complex database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects of the SKICAT system, and of some of the scientific results achieved to date. We also developed a user-friendly package for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. G.↗

Remote Sensing Information Science Research

This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.

Clarke, Keith C.↗

Enhance BISON Metal Fuel Transient Models and Enable Assessment Based on Out-of-Pile Transient Experiments

In this report, the activities and achievements made by Argonne National Laboratory for the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) BISON code metallic fuel validation and verification (V&V) project in FY2023, with a focus on the capability development and assessment case development for the out-of-pile transient experiments, are summarized. The liquid cladding penetration model was improved based on a comprehensive set of fuel behavior test apparatus (FBTA) test results. The new model was implemented into BISON along with a simple model to account for fuel melting effects. The metallic fuel meshing capability was also upgraded to allow local refinement using unstructured triangular mesh. Based on the previous success in developing the BISON-FIPD integration powered BISON assessment case, this database enabled BISON evaluation and V&V capability was expanded to the out-of-pile transient experiments by introducing BISON-OPTD integration. A series of initial out-of-pile transient assessment cases were implemented into BISON to provide powerful platforms to evaluate current BISON’s capabilities in simulating metallic fuel performance during out-of-pile transients. The established capabilities will also benefit the calibration and V&V of future advanced mechanistic models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.

Bauman, William H., III↗

LAROMance Grade 91 Model Integration in NEML2

New reactor designs are targeting higher operating temperatures for increased thermal efficiency when compared to the current fleet of light water reactors. Designing structural components for these high temperature environments with reliable long-term operations requires material models that can accurately capture the deformation mechanisms active in these environments. The LAROMance surrogate material models are based on a database of mechanistic crystal plasticity simulations for high-temperature conditions. Inputs to the LAROMance models reflect the microstructural pedigree of the material, like dislocation densities and precipitate contents. Based on the evolution of these microstructural features, the LAROMance model provides the engineering scale constitutive model response. The LAROMance model was recently parameterized for Grade 91, a high temperature alloy. In the present work, the Grade 91 LAROMance model is implemented in the New Material Model Library, version 2 (NEML2). NEML2 provides a modular way to build material models from smaller blocks and was developed to vectorize the material update to efficiently run on modern computational architectures with graphics processing unit accelerators. NEML2 constitutive models can be used in simulations based on the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE). This report provides details on the implementation of the Grade 91 LAROMance model in NEML2 and its verification of engineering scale finite element simulations in MOOSE.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Telemetry and Science Data Software System

The Telemetry and Science Data Software System (TSDSS) was designed to validate the operational health of a spacecraft, ease test verification, assist in debugging system anomalies, and provide trending data and advanced science analysis. In doing so, the system parses, processes, and organizes raw data from the Aquarius instrument both on the ground and while in space. In addition, it provides a user-friendly telemetry viewer, and an instant pushbutton test report generator. Existing ground data systems can parse and provide simple data processing, but have limitations in advanced science analysis and instant report generation. The TSDSS functions as an offline data analysis system during I&T (integration and test) and mission operations phases. After raw data are downloaded from an instrument, TSDSS ingests the data files, parses, converts telemetry to engineering units, and applies advanced algorithms to produce science level 0, 1, and 2 data products. Meanwhile, it automatically schedules upload of the raw data to a remote server and archives all intermediate and final values in a MySQL database in time order. All data saved in the system can be straightforwardly retrieved, exported, and migrated. Using TSDSS s interactive data visualization tool, a user can conveniently choose any combination and mathematical computation of interesting telemetry points from a large range of time periods (life cycle of mission ground data and mission operations testing), and display a graphical and statistical view of the data. With this graphical user interface (GUI), the data queried graphs can be exported and saved in multiple formats. This GUI is especially useful in trending data analysis, debugging anomalies, and advanced data analysis. At the request of the user, mission-specific instrument performance assessment reports can be generated with a simple click of a button on the GUI. From instrument level to observatory level, the TSDSS has been operating supporting functional and performance tests and refining system calibration algorithms and coefficients, in sync with the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. At the time of this reporting, it was prepared and set up to perform anomaly investigation for mission operations preceding the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft launch on June 10, 2011.

Bates, Lakesha↗

Software Quality Assurance for EBR-II Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD)

The Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) is an ongoing DOE project on archival of the EBR-II metal-alloy fuel irradiation experiments. As part of its use in support of license applications, the Quality Assurance Program Plan (QAPP) was drafted and endorsed by NRC in an effort to demonstrate its compliance with regulatory expectations. Software Quality Assurance (SQA) for the physics portion of FIPD is intended to qualify the calculated quantities such as fuel and cladding temperatures, neutron fluence and axially varying burnup estimates for irradiated fuel elements. This report covers the initial evaluation of SQA status of three neutron physics and thermo-fluid codes (REBUS, RCT and SE2RCT) that form the basis of calculated quantities for as-irradiated characteristics of the tested metallic fuel elements. The report also introduces an SQA plan to address the identified deficiencies. The REBUS, RCT, and SE2RCT codes are all part of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) code system. There is considerable knowledge and experience on REBUS and RCT but relatively less on SE2RCT. During FY2021, efforts focused on an assessment of how the data in the EBR-II Physics and Analysis DataBase (PADB) is generated with SE2RCT and used in FIPD. Additional tasks included considerations of uncertainties for power estimates in REBUS and RCT calculations and their impact on the combined RCT methodology. The RCT software usage in FIPD was assessed this year and the input/output details studied. A “requirements” document was created that identifies the key features of the RCT software being used in FIPD that need to have SQA documentation. A brief discussion on the history of RCT and its input is included in this report along with the basic SQA roadmap laid out in the requirements document. The SE2RCT software usage in FIPD is still being studied noting that there is no current manual. As part of the work done this year, two bugs were identified in the SE2RCT software which have a minor impact on the accuracy of the results it produces. No requirements document has been created, but one identified feature of SE2RCT being used that needs verification was its fuel pin temperature calculation. The work completed this year confirms that the approximations which will be included in the software verification report for SE2RCT are accurate. In addition to software quality assurance work for RCT and SE2RCT, an automated verification framework is proposed to simplify the software quality assurance process. The purpose of this framework is to streamline code verification and documentation while minimizing repetitive tasks for code developers and reviewers. The reduction of repeated input (between reference solution, software, and documentation input) throughout the SQA process reduces potential for human errors during the preparation of the supporting software quality records. The automation of the verification and documentation process proposed for this project leverages the existing verification structure already in place for the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal and Chemical Characterization of Composite Materials. MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund Final Report, Project No. ED36-18

The purpose of this research effort was to: (1) provide a concise and well-defined property profile of current and developing composite materials using thermal and chemical characterization techniques and (2) optimize analytical testing requirements of materials. This effort applied a diverse array of methodologies to ascertain composite material properties. Often, a single method of technique will provide useful, but nonetheless incomplete, information on material composition and/or behavior. To more completely understand and predict material properties, a broad-based analytical approach is required. By developing a database of information comprised of both thermal and chemical properties, material behavior under varying conditions may be better understood. THis is even more important in the aerospace community, where new composite materials and those in the development stage have little reference data. For example, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy spectral databases available for identification of vapor phase spectra, such as those generated during experiments, generally refer to well-defined chemical compounds. Because this method renders a unique thermal decomposition spectral pattern, even larger, more diverse databases, such as those found in solid and liquid phase FTIR spectroscopy libraries, cannot be used. By combining this and other available methodologies, a database specifically for new materials and materials being developed at Marshall Space Flight Center can be generated . In addition, characterizing materials using this approach will be extremely useful in the verification of materials and identification of anomalies in NASA-wide investigations.

Stanley, D. C.↗

Microstructure-sensitive modeling of high temperature creep in grade-91 alloy

Predicting the effects of microstructure on high-temperature creep responses of steel components is critical to minimize the risks of failure and maximize economic viability in the energy sector. In this research, a recently developed advanced mechanistic constitutive model is employed to study the effect of microstructure on the creep responses and to rationalize experimentally reported variability in the performances of grade-91 alloy. Hundreds of experimental creep tests from the literature are used to assess the predictability of the model. The model proposed is shown to accurately predict the steady-state creep rates and also the less commonly considered, yet important, primary-to-secondary transients for a wide range of creep conditions. Further, the model is capable of extrapolating the creep response of grade 91 alloy even outside of the calibration regime. Using this model, the roles of initial microstructure described in terms of grain size, dislocation density, and precipitate content, on the creep responses are investigated. The effect of initial microstructure on the steady-state creep rates and creep-strain is found to vary with stress and temperature. Grain size plays a significant role in the low-stress creep, where the diffusional creep is dominant. On the other hand, the effects of dislocation densities and precipitate content are significant in the dislocation-plasticity-dominated high-stress and temperature regimes. Furthermore, by comparing model predictions against a large experimental creep database, it is found that variability in the creep responses can be rationalized on the basis of differences in the initial microstructure. Overall, this work provides a robust pathway for microstructure-aware engineering design, verification, and validation of metallic components for energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Determination of Scale Bar for AGHCF Metallography Data

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Fast Reactor Program (FRP) has supported the development of several databases containing information on the safety performance of fast reactors, components, and fuels. This growing collection of legacy experimental data, operating data, and analysis is available online to registered users. Metallography data represents one of the most critical types of post-irradiation examination (PIE) data being collected, organized, and archived in several ART Fast Reactor Databases (https://frdb.ne.anl.gov), including the Metallic Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD), Out-of-Pile Transient Database (OPTD), and TREAT (the Transient Reactor Test Facility) Experimental Relational Database (TREXR). These databases contain three principal sets of metallography data. The first set comprises metallography data from Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) and Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) irradiated fuel pins examined in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF). The second set consists of metallography data from EBR-II irradiated fuel pins examined in the Alpha-Gamma Hot Cell Facility (AGHCF). The third set includes metallography data from transient-tested fuel pins (including both out-of-pile furnace tests and TREAT tests) examined in AGHCF. Since both the second and third sets were generated in AGHCF, they are governed by identical specifications. The metallography data in the databases consist of digital images scanned from either positive or negative photographic films. To analyze the microstructure of a fuel pin, a series of preparatory steps are required, including sectioning, epoxy mounting, mechanical grinding and polishing, and etching. Following sample preparation, specimens are transferred for metallographic examination. The AGHCF and HFEF metallography data were generated using optical microscopes manufactured by Leitz and Bausch and Lomb (B&L). Images were recorded on Polaroid film at preset magnifications. Magnification verification for the Leitz and B&L metallographs was conducted every two months prior to 1989 and at least every six months from 1989 through the conclusion of the IFR program. Magnifications determined from imaging of microslide standards were compared to the instrument settings for magnifications ranging from 50× to 500×. If the magnifications determined from standards deviated from the instrument settings, adjustments were made to the bellows extension until agreement was achieved. The specifications for AGHCF and HFEF legacy metallography data have been established based on available hard-copy and digital records, most of which have been incorporated into the data repositories associated with FIPD, OPTD, and TREXR. Detailed specifications including hard-copy records, digitized records, cutting diagrams and sectioning schemes, high-magnification photographs, photomosaics (composites), information tags, scale bars, and magnification verification procedures can be found in a separate report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

Efficient Multidisciplinary Analysis Approach for Conceptual Design of Aircraft with Large Shape Change

The conceptual and preliminary design processes for aircraft with large shape changes are generally difficult and time-consuming, and the processes are often customized for a specific shape change concept to streamline the vehicle design effort. Accordingly, several existing reports show excellent results of assessing a particular shape change concept or perturbations of a concept. The goal of the current effort was to develop a multidisciplinary analysis tool and process that would enable an aircraft designer to assess several very different morphing concepts early in the design phase and yet obtain second-order performance results so that design decisions can be made with better confidence. The approach uses an efficient parametric model formulation that allows automatic model generation for systems undergoing radical shape changes as a function of aerodynamic parameters, geometry parameters, and shape change parameters. In contrast to other more self-contained approaches, the approach utilizes off-the-shelf analysis modules to reduce development time and to make it accessible to many users. Because the analysis is loosely coupled, discipline modules like a multibody code can be easily swapped for other modules with similar capabilities. One of the advantages of this loosely coupled system is the ability to use the medium- to high-fidelity tools early in the design stages when the information can significantly influence and improve overall vehicle design. Data transfer among the analysis modules are based on an accurate and automated general purpose data transfer tool. In general, setup time for the integrated system presented in this paper is 2-4 days for simple shape change concepts and 1-2 weeks for more mechanically complicated concepts. Some of the key elements briefly described in the paper include parametric model development, aerodynamic database generation, multibody analysis, and the required software modules as well as examples for a telescoping wing, a folding wing, and a bat-like wing. The paper also includes the verification of a medium-fidelity aerodynamic tool used for the aerodynamic database generation with a steady and unsteady high-fidelity CFD analysis tool for a folding wing example.

Chwalowski, Pawel↗