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GeoThermalCloud: Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that can provide reliable and flexible electricity generation for the world. In the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey's resource assessments, Play Fairway Analyses (PFA), and GeoVision report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office provided insights on enormous untapped potential for geothermal energy to contribute to the U.S. domestic energy needs. The past studies identified that geothermal resources without surface expression (e.g., blind/hidden hydrothermal systems) comprise a huge potential. These blind systems can significantly increase power generation. But a primary challenge is locating and quantifying these hidden resources, which do not have any thermal manifestations on the surface. PFA has successfully identified some blind systems in the western USA (e.g., specific locations in the Great Basin region within Nevada). However, a comprehensive search for these blind systems can be time-consuming, expensive, and resource-intensive with a low probability of success. Accelerated discovery of these blind resources is needed with growing energy needs and higher chances of exploration success. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have shown promise in shortening the timeline for this discovery. This paper presents a novel ML-based methodology for geothermal exploration towards PFA applications. Our methodology is provided through our open-source ML framework called GeoThermalCloud \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl}. GeoThermalCloud uses a series of unsupervised, supervised, and physics-informed ML methods available in SmartTensors AI platform \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors}. Here, the presented analyses are performed using our unsupervised ML algorithm called NMF$k$, which is available in the SmartTensors AI platform. Our ML algorithm facilitates the discovery of new phenomena, hidden patterns, and mechanisms that helps us to make informed decisions. Moreover, the GeoThermalCloud enhances the collected PFA data and discovers signatures representative of geothermal resources. Through GeoThermalCloud, we were able to identify hidden patterns in the geothermal field data needed for the efficient discovery of blind systems. Crucial geothermal signatures often overlooked in traditional PFA are extracted using GeoThermalCloud and analyzed by the subject matter experts to provide ML-enhanced PFA, which is informative for efficient exploration. We applied our ML methodology on various open-source geothermal datasets within the U.S. (some of these are collected by past PFA work), and the results provide valuable insights on resource types within those explored regions. This ML-enhanced workflow makes GeoThermalCloud attractive for the geothermal community to improve existing datasets and extract valuable information often unnoticed during geothermal exploration.

machine learning (ML), geothermal energy↗

Combining information from multiple cosmological surveys: inference and modeling challenges

The tightest and most robust cosmological results of the next decade will be achieved by bringing together multiple surveys of the Universe. This endeavor has to happen across multiple layers of the data processing and analysis, e.g., enhancements are expected from combining Euclid, Rubin, and Roman (as well as other surveys) not only at the level of joint processing and catalog combination, but also during the post-catalog parts of the analysis such as the cosmological inference process. While every experiment builds their own analysis and inference framework and creates their own set of simulations, cross-survey work that homogenizes these efforts, exchanges information from numerical simulations, and coordinates details in the modeling of astrophysical and observational systematics of the corresponding datasets is crucial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microgrid Controller Survey Report: 2024 Update

In the past decade, the number of microgrids deployed by electric utilities, end-use customers, and third parties has been increasing significantly both in the US and worldwide. The increase is driven by various reasons, such as carbon emission reduction, energy efficiency improvement, reliability and resilience enhancement, energy infrastructure modernization, and more. Microgrid controllers, as the most important components in these deployed microgrids, optimally coordinate the operation and control of the microgrid assets (e.g., distributed energy resources [DERs], energy storage systems, demand response, and even electric vehicles) and ensure that the microgrid is being operated in an efficient, clean, and resilient manner. To that end, the market for microgrid controllers has been growing rapidly in recent years. Various microgrid controllers have been released and continuously updated by vendors to satisfy the different needs of microgrid customers. However, the functionalities demonstrated by microgrid controllers released by different vendors show a huge difference because of a lack of widely known and accepted industrial standards, and various microgrid customers have specific requirements for different applications and scenarios. To obtain a clear view of the current state of the commercial microgrid controllers’ functionalities and identify potential research gaps, a survey of the functionalities of commercial microgrid controllers and the Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) developed by vendors and national laboratories was conducted in 2023. The results of the survey are presented in this report with the current status of commercial microgrid controllers analyzed, potential research gaps identified, and future research trends revealed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding the Impacts of Stellar Companions on Planet Formation and Evolution: A Survey of Stellar and Planetary Companions within 25 pc

We explore the impact of outer stellar companions on the occurrence rate of giant planets detected with radial velocities. We searched for stellar and planetary companions to a volume-limited sample of solar-type stars within 25 pc. Using adaptive optics imaging observations from the Lick 3 m and Palomar 200″ Telescopes, we characterized the multiplicity of our sample stars, down to the bottom of the main sequence. With these data, we confirm field star multiplicity statistics from previous surveys. We additionally combined three decades of radial velocity (RV) data from the California Planet Search with newly collected RV data from Keck/HIRES and the Automated Planet Finder/Levy Spectrometer to search for planetary companions in these same systems. Using an updated catalog of both stellar and planetary companions, as well as detailed injection/recovery tests to determine our sensitivity and completeness, we measured the occurrence rate of planets among the single- and multiple-star systems. We found that planets with masses in the range of 0.1–10 M {sub J} and with semimajor axes of 0.1–10 au have an occurrence rate of 0.18{sub −0.03}{sup +0.04} planets per star when they orbit single stars and an occurrence rate of 0.12 ± 0.04 planets per star when they orbit a star in a binary system. Breaking the sample down by the binary separation, we found that only one planet-hosting binary system had a binary separation <100 au, and none had a separation <50 au. These numbers yielded planet occurrence rates of 0.20{sub −0.06}{sup +0.07} planets per star for binaries with separation a {sub B} > 100 au and 0.04{sub −0.02}{sup +0.04} planets per star for binaries with separation a {sub B} < 100 au. The similarity in the planet occurrence rate around single stars and wide primaries implies that wide binary systems should actually host more planets than single-star systems, since they have more potential host stars. We estimated a system-wide planet occurrence rate of 0.3 planets per wide binary system for binaries with separations a {sub B} > 100 au. Finally, we found evidence that giant planets in binary systems have a different semimajor-axis distribution than their counterparts in single-star systems. The planets in the single-star sample had a significantly higher occurrence rate outside of 1 au than inside 1 au by nearly 4σ, in line with expectations that giant planets are most common near the snow line. However, the planets in the wide binary systems did not follow this distribution, but rather had equivalent occurrence rates interior and exterior to 1 au. This may point to binary-mediated planet migration acting on our sample, even in binaries wider than 100 au.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Snowmass2021: Vera C. Rubin Observatory as a Flagship Dark Matter Experiment

Establishing that Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a flagship dark matter experiment is an essential pathway toward understanding the physical nature of dark matter. In the past two decades, wide-field astronomical surveys and terrestrial laboratories have jointly created a phase transition in the ecosystem of dark matter models and probes. Going forward, any robust understanding of dark matter requires astronomical observations, which still provide the only empirical evidence for dark matter to date. We have a unique opportunity right now to create a dark matter experiment with Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This experiment will be a coordinated effort to perform dark matter research, and provide a large collaborative team of scientists with the necessary organizational and funding supports. This approach leverages existing investments in Rubin. Studies of dark matter with Rubin LSST will also guide the design of, and confirm the results from, other dark matter experiments. Supporting a collaborative team to carry out a dark matter experiment with Rubin LSST is the key to achieving the dark matter science goals that have already been identified as high priority by the high-energy physics and astronomy communities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Snowmass2021: Opportunities from Cross-survey Analyses of Static Probes

Cosmological data in the next decade will be characterized by high-precision, multi-wavelength measurements of thousands of square degrees of the same patches of sky. By performing multi-survey analyses that harness the correlated nature of these datasets, we will gain access to new science, and increase the precision and robustness of science being pursued by each individual survey. However, effective application of such analyses requires a qualitatively new level of investment in cross-survey infrastructure, including simulations, associated modeling, coordination of data sharing, and survey strategy. The scientific gains from this new level of investment are multiplicative, as the benefits can be reaped by even present-day instruments, and can be applied to new instruments as they come online.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The DECADE cosmic shear project I: A new weak lensing shape catalog of 107 million galaxies

We present the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. This catalog was assembled from public DECam data including survey and standard observing programs. These data were consistently processed with the Dark Energy Survey Data Management pipeline as part of the DECADE campaign and serve as the basis of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE) Early Data Release 3 (EDR3). We apply the Metacalibration measurement algorithm to generate and calibrate galaxy shapes. After cuts, the resulting cosmology-ready galaxy shape catalog covers a region of $5,\!412 \,\,{\rm deg}^2$ with an effective number density of $4.59\,\, {\rm arcmin}^{-2}$. The coadd images used to derive this data have a median limiting magnitude of $r = 23.6$, $i = 23.2$, and $z = 22.6$, estimated at ${\rm S/N} = 10$ in a 2 arcsecond aperture. We present a suite of detailed studies to characterize the catalog, measure any residual systematic biases, and verify that the catalog is suitable for cosmology analyses. In parallel, we build an image simulation pipeline to characterize the remaining multiplicative shear bias in this catalog, which we measure to be $m = (-2.454 \pm 0.124) \times10^{-2}$ for the full sample. Despite the significantly inhomogeneous nature of the data set, due to it being an amalgamation of various observing programs, we find the resulting catalog has sufficient quality to yield competitive cosmological constraints.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Final Targeting Strategy for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 North Survey

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is a dual-hemisphere, near-infrared (NIR), spectroscopic survey with the goal of producing a chemodynamical mapping of the Milky Way. The targeting for APOGEE-2 is complex and has evolved with time. In this paper, we present the updates and additions to the initial targeting strategy for APOGEE-2N presented in Zasowski et al. (2017). These modifications come in two implementation modes: (i) “Ancillary Science Programs” competitively awarded to Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV PIs through proposal calls in 2015 and 2017 for the pursuit of new scientific avenues outside the main survey, and (ii) an effective 1.5 yr expansion of the survey, known as the Bright Time Extension (BTX), made possible through accrued efficiency gains over the first years of the APOGEE-2N project. For the 23 distinct ancillary programs, we provide descriptions of the scientific aims, target selection, and how to identify these targets within the APOGEE-2 sample. The BTX permitted changes to the main survey strategy, the inclusion of new programs in response to scientific discoveries or to exploit major new data sets not available at the outset of the survey design, and expansions of existing programs to enhance their scientific success and reach. After describing the motivations, implementation, and assessment of these programs, we also leave a summary of lessons learned from nearly a decade of APOGEE-1 and APOGEE-2 survey operations. Finally, a companion paper, F. Santana et al. (submitted; AAS29036), provides a complementary presentation of targeting modifications relevant to APOGEE-2 operations in the Southern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Results of a fishery-independent longline survey targeting coastal sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979 and 2013

Long-term trends in shark abundance offer important insights for fisheries management. Few fisheries-independent, extended time-series data exist for coastal shark species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean outside of the United States. A decades old dataset comprised of standardized longline surveys provided us with the opportunity to characterize diversity and evaluate changes in the relative abundance of sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979–1990 and 2011–2013. Caribbean reef sharks Carcharhinus perezi and tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier were the two most commonly captured species throughout the survey and were the only two species analyzed in detail. For both species, sex ratios favored females. Using Bayesian generalized linear models, we found that Caribbean reef shark catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) exhibited a positive relationship with year and temperature, while size exhibited no relationship with year and a negative relationship with temperature. There was no relationship between tiger shark CPUE and year but there was a positive relationship between size and year. These results are presented in the context of Bahamian shark conservation efforts and the results of other surveys in the region.

Fisheries-independent survey, Caribbean reef shark↗

Next-Generation Marine Energy Software Needs Assessment

Over the past decade the marine energy industry has continued to grow and evolve, with new concepts and technologies constantly being pursued. Additionally, the field of computing is vastly different today than it was five or ten years ago. By utilizing advanced software and hardware architectures, like graphics processing units as well as parallelization and high-performance computing resources, software can produce higher quality outputs and a higher volume of outputs. These software and hardware resources can enable the marine energy community to exploit computational advancements from other research fields, which can include machine learning, differentiable programming, and controls co-design. Better integration of existing software and development of potential new software is necessary to take advantage of trends in modern computing and respond to the current and future needs of the marine energy community. In order to better understand the existing marine energy software landscape and industry needs, DOE's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) tasked Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the needs assessment by identifying existing software gaps and software needs, and assisting WPTO in planning the next wave of marine energy software development. The proposed effort involved cataloguing and analyzing the available data on existing software related to marine energy. The marine energy software landscape has vastly changed in the last ten years. There are now nearly 230 different software packages utilized by the marine energy sector, compared to a decade ago when the Cardinal Engineering survey identified approximately 40 software packages. In 2012, the marine energy software landscape was captured in two tables, whereas the current marine energy software landscape required development of a software database to collect and categorize software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Pre-training Vision Models for the Classification of Alerts from Wide-field Time-domain Surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Finding Fast Transients in Real Time Using a Novel Light-curve Analysis Algorithm

The current data acquisition rate of astronomical transient surveys and the promise for significantly higher rates in the next decade necessitate the development of novel approaches to analyze astronomical data sets and promptly detect objects of interest. The Deeper, Wider, Faster (DWF) program is a survey focused on the identification of fast-evolving transients, such as fast radio bursts, gamma-ray bursts, and supernova shock breakouts. It employs multifrequency simultaneous coverage of the same part of the sky over several orders of magnitude. Using the Dark Energy Camera mounted on the 4 m Blanco telescope, DWF captures a 20 s g -band exposure every minute, at a typical seeing of ~1'' and an air mass of ~1.5. These optical data are collected simultaneously with observations conducted over the entire electromagnetic spectrum—from radio to γ -rays—as well as cosmic-ray observations. In this paper, we present a novel real-time light-curve analysis algorithm, designed to detect transients in the DWF optical data; this algorithm functions independently from, or in conjunction with, image subtraction. We present a sample of fast transients detected by our algorithm, as well as a false-positive analysis. Our algorithm is customizable and can be tuned to be sensitive to transients evolving over different timescales and flux ranges.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator

Company: Adelphi Technology, Inc. Title: Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator PI: Dr. Jay Theodore Cremer, Jr. Topic: 26a Statement of the problem or situation that is being addressed. Successful plant growth depends upon an efficient and robust root system. The plant root is part of a larger system of water and microbial flows in the soil system. While much effort has been exerted to develop an imaging system for water, microbes, and roots, the problem is challenging, and no widely accepted imaging method currently exists. The optical solutions use a highly modified soil system. X-ray imaging methods are insensitive to the soft tissues in the presence of sand. Thermal neutron imaging has been often tested, but found inadequate, due to limited access and low image resolution. This project will develop a new strategy for neutron imaging of plant/soil systems. The project will allow long duration experiments in greenhouse environments and increase the image information content to the micron scale. General statement of how this problem is being addressed. Portable, rugged thermal and fast neutron sources are being developed where portable means a two-soldier team can carry the source and power unit to survey rough terrain for explosives. In the past decade, microfabrication of X-ray and thermal/cold neutron optics has opened a new imaging strategy. The standard transmission image is now supplemented with simultaneous acquisition of a phase contrast image and an image revealing scattering features. In materials science, the interferometric neutron scattering image has been used to detect early crack formation in stressed additive manufacturing test samples. The detection requires sensitivity to scattering features at the 1-micron scale. By addition of our proposed grating-optic to Adelphi Technology’s radiographic/tomographic imaging system, which is based on portable thermal neutron source, the resulting thermal neutron scatter image of the plant/soil system, will reveal details at 1-micron. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits Neutron interferometry imaging has greater penetration through large metal components compared to industrial X-ray imaging. The low-cost, large area optics developed for greenhouse applications, combined with the robust, portable neutron generator, can then be marketed as a system for inspection of additive manufactured components. In the aerospace industry, all freshly printed components are validated with X-ray CT. Scheduled maintenance again requires X-ray CT as the ability to predict aerospace component lifetime does not yet exist. Large aerospace components are only partially observed with X-ray imaging. Key Words Neutron radiography/tomography, grating interferometry, thermal neutron generator imaging, plant root and soil imaging, rhizosphere imaging, deployable neutron imaging systems Summary for Members of Congress A rugged, portable source of thermal neutrons is adapted for neutron interferometry imaging with the addition of low-cost, 3D printed optics. The first application of our proposed deployable, compact thermal neutron generator imaging system, using a grating optic, is plant root/soil science in greenhouse settings and agricultural laboratories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Survey: Handling Irregularities in Neural Network Acceleration with FPGAs

In the last decade, Artificial Intelligence (AI) through Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has penetrated virtually every aspect of science, technology, and business. Many types of DNNs have been and continue to be developed, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Net- works (RNNs), and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The overall problem for all of these Neural Networks (NNs) is that their target applications generally pose stringent constraints on latency and throughput, while also having strict accuracy requirements. There have been many previous efforts in creating hardware to accelerate NNs. The problem designers face is that optimal NN models typically have significant irregularities, making them hardware-unfriendly. In this paper, we first define the problems in NN acceleration by characterizing common irregularities in NN processing into 4 types; then we summarize the existing works that handle the four types of irregularities efficiently using hardware, especially FPGAs; finally, we provide a new vision of next-generation FPGA-based NN acceleration: that the emerging heterogeneity in the next-generation FPGAs is the key to achieving higher performance.

Geng, Tong↗

A Survey of Proposed Standards and Regulations for Artificial Intelligence

Over the last decade, the interest in machine learning and artificial intelligence (A.I) has grown exponentially. Researchers across several industries have explored and proposed uses of machine learning that have the potential to exponentially improve automation, efficiency, etc. The nuclear industry is no exception, with several studies exploring applications in almost every aspect of the field. However, these developments have brought forth a number of concerns. Government officials, industry leaders and many others have called for new regulations to govern the development and implementation of A.I systems. In order for machine learning and A.I to be viable for nuclear applications, there will need to be great regulatory oversight. The purpose of this study is to examine current and proposed regulations that relate to machine learning and provide recommendations for future regulations, specifically for nuclear applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

RELICS: A Very Large ( θ E ~ 40") Cluster Lens—RXC J0032.1+1808

Extensive surveys with the Hubble Space Telescope over the past decade, targeting some of the most massive clusters in the sky, have uncovered dozens of galaxy cluster strong lenses. The massive cluster strong-lens scale is typically θ E ~ 10'' to ~30''–35'', with only a handful of clusters known with Einstein radii θ E ~ 40'' or above (for z source = 2, nominally). Here we report another very large cluster lens, RXC J0032.1+1808 (z = 0.3956), the second-richest cluster in the redMapper cluster catalog and the 85th most massive cluster in the Planck Sunyaev–Zel'dovich catalog. With our light-traces-mass and fully parametric approaches, we construct strong-lensing models based on 18 multiple images of five background galaxies newly identified in the Hubble data, mainly from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), in addition to a known sextuply imaged system in this cluster. Furthermore, we compare these models to Lenstool and GLAFIC models that were produced independently as part of the RELICS program. All models reveal a large effective Einstein radius of θ E ≃ 40'' (z source = 2), owing to the obvious concentration of substructures near the cluster center. Although RXC J0032.1+1808 has a very large critical area and high lensing strength, only three magnified high-redshift candidates are found within the field targeted by RELICS. Nevertheless, we expect many more high-redshift candidates will be seen in wider and deeper observations with Hubble or the James Webb Space Telescope. Finally, the comparison between several algorithms demonstrates that the total error budget is largely dominated by systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Connecting ambient toxicity testing with community-level responses of benthic macroinvertebrates in an impacted stream in East Tennessee, USA

Single-species laboratory toxicity tests are a standard tool for evaluating potential impairment of freshwater systems; however, it remains uncertain how well they reflect community-level impacts in natural environments. This study presents a multi-decadal dataset (2005-2025) pairing ambient toxicity testing with macroinvertebrate surveys along Bear Creek on the Oak Ridge Reservation (Tennessee, USA) downstream of an industrial complex to assess the ability of laboratory tests using stream water to track community-level effects. Biannual three-brood Ceriodaphnia dubia tests from 2005 to 2025 often showed reduced reproduction at select sites. Integrating water quality data showed strong positive correlations between sublethal toxicity and specific conductance. Macroinvertebrate diversity metrics, family-level occurrence, and densities were also associated with conductance and contemporaneous C. dubia responses. Laboratory-measured sublethal toxicity was a stronger indicator of macroinvertebrate change than conductance alone, although responses varied among sites and seasons. At the site with the highest diversity, densities and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) and non-EPT taxa were significantly related to C. dubia reproduction, with greater toxicity corresponding to lower diversity. At the family level, some pollution-tolerant taxa were more prevalent and at higher densities during periods of sublethal toxicity, while some sensitive families were absent or reduced. These patterns may reflect site-specific mixtures of acute and chronic stressors, with laboratory toxicity tests more effectively capturing short-term impacts. Overall, these multi-decadal observations suggest that laboratory toxicity tests can help track water-quality changes linked to shifts in aquatic community diversity, despite variable responses reflecting the complexity of dynamic stressors in this impacted freshwater system.

Stevenson, Louise [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000349679897)↗