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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2008

Cloud-System Resolving Models: Status and Prospects

Cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are based on the nonhydrostatic equations of motion and typically have a grid-spacing of about a kilometer, originated as cloud-process models in the 1970s. This paper reviews the status and prospects of CRMs across a wide range of issues, such as microphysics and precipitation; interaction between clouds and radiation; and the effects of boundary-layer and surface-processes on cloud systems. Since CRMs resolve organized convection, tropical waves and the large-scale circulation, there is the prospect for several advances in both basic knowledge of scale-interaction requisite to parameterizing mesoscale processes in climate models. In superparameterization, CRMs represent convection, explicitly replacing many of the assumptions necessary in contemporary parameterization. Global CRMs have been run on an experimental basis, giving prospect to a new generation of climate weather prediction in a decade, and climate models due course. CRMs play a major role in the retrieval of surface-rain and latent heating from satellite measurements. Finally, enormous wide dynamic ranges of CRM simulations present new challenges for model validation against observations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2002

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cometary compact H II regions are stellar-wind bow shocks

Comet-shaped H II regions, like G34.3 + 0.2, are easily explained as bow shocks created by wind-blowing massive stars moving supersonically through molecular clouds. The required velocities of the stars through dense clumps are less than about 10 km/s, comparable to the velocity dispersion of stars in OB associations. An analytic model of bow shocks matches the gross characteristics seen in the radio continuum and the velocity structure inferred from hydrogen recombination and molecular line observations. The champagne flow model cannot account for these structures. VLBI observations of masers associated with the shells of cometary compact H II regions should reveal tailward proper motions predominantly parallel to the shell, rather than perpendicular. It is predicted that over a decade baseline, high signal-to-noise VLA observations of this class of objects will show headward pattern motion in the direction of the symmetry axis, but not expansion. Finally, shock-generated and coronal infrared lines are also predicted.

Van Buren, Dave↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Magnetic Field in the Outer Heliosphere

One of the great achievements of Parker was the prediction that the solar magnetic field would be drawn into Archimedian spirals as it is carried away from the Sun by the solar wind. This prediction has been amply confirmed by many in situ measurements in the intervening four decades. But, Parker made his prediction for a solar wind that expands into infinite space while we now know that the local interstellar medium (LISM) is far from empty and, in fact, confines the solar wind to a finite volume, known as the heliosphere, that extends to approximately 100 AU in the upstream direction (the solar system is moving through the LISM). Voyagers 1/2, presently at -80 AU, are approaching the upstream boundaries of the heliosphere and returning data on the properties of the magnetic field. This is important for understanding how galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) reach the Earth. Voyagers show that the IMF at 10-80 AU behaves much as Parker predicted - with two important exceptions. This is not surprising since the field is essentially passively advected by the solar wind out to 80 AU. But, new models say that nearer the heliosphere boundaries the field plays a major role in the solar wind-LISM interaction. However, of the many physical ingredients that constitute the outer heliosphere, the magnetic field poses some of the most interesting and difficult numerical modeling problems. Presently, only a few results have been published and much remains to be done. Here I will summarize the expected and measured behavior of the magnetic field at 80 AU. Then I will describe modeling predictions beyond 80 AU: magnetic "tornadoes", polarity envelopes, the Axford-Cranfill effect, inner and outer magnetic walls and more. I will also list what I believe to be important new modeling objectives. Finally, I will speculate on what is happening with the magnetic field near the nose of the heliosphere. My conclusion is that models of GCR modulation rarely incorporate even crudely realistic magnetic fields so it is a wonder that they are as successful as they are and no surprise that there are still important discrepancies between GCR modulation observations and the models.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Telescopes

Space telescopes have been a dominant force in astrophysics and astronomy over the last two decades. As Lyman Spitzer predicted in 1946, space telescopes have opened up much of the electromagnetic spectrum to astronomers, and provided the opportunity to exploit the optical performance of telescopes uncompromised by the turbulent atmosphere. This special section of Optical Engineering is devoted to space telescopes. It focuses on the design and implementation of major space observatories from the gamma-ray to far-infrared, and highlights the scientific and technical breakthroughs enabled by these telescopes. The papers accepted for publication include reviews of major space telescopes spanning the last two decades, in-depth discussions of the design considerations for visible and x-ray telescopes, and papers discussing concepts and technical challenges for future space telescopes.

Clampin, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2011

Phenology Shifts at Start vs. End of Growing Season in Temperate Vegetation Over the Northern Hemisphere for the Period 1982-2008

Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982 2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982-1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000-2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out. Keywords: climate change, growing season, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Northern Hemisphere, phenology,

Jeong, Su-Jong↗
NASA NTRS1973

Effects of nonequilibrium ablation chemistry on Viking radio blackout.

The length of the entry blackout period during descent of the Viking Lander into the Mars atmosphere is predicted from calculated profiles of electron density in the shock layer over the aeroshell. Nonequilibrium chemistry plays a key role in the calculation, both in the inviscid flow and in the boundary layer. This is especially true in the boundary layer contaminated with ablation material, for which nonequilibrium chemistry predicts electron densities two decades lower than the same case calculated with equilibrium chemistry.

Evans, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

On neutrons from the sun

A survey of all the experiments carried out over the past decade to verify theoretical predictions for the observation of solar neutrons is presented and discussed. The conclusions drawn from this discussion are: (1) the Solar Probe Mission is important in order to discover the low energy neutrons of solar origin; (2) this discovery is likely to carry very useful information about the nature, the locale, the lifetime and the mode of operation of the acceleration processes in the solar atmosphere; and (3) this information will lead to a rapid development of the science of solar meteorology and the more rapid forecasting of solar activity, on a long-term basis.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A model for solar constant secular changes

In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Chaotic Motion in the Solar System and Beyond

The motion of planetary bodies is the archetypal clockwork system. Indeed, clocks and calendars were developed to keep track of the relative motions of the Earth, the Sun and the Moon. However, studies over the past few decades imply that this predictable regularity does not extend to small bodies, nor does it apply to the precise trajectories of the planets themselves over long timescale.s. Various examples of chaotic motion within our Solar System and, extrasolar planetary systems will be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack↗
NASA NTRS2013

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2004

Eccentric loading of microtensile specimens

Ceramic materials have a lower density than most metals and are capable of performing at extremely high temperatures. The utility of these materials is obvious; however, the fracture strength of brittle materials is not easily predicted and often varies greatly. Characteristically, brittle materials lack ductility and do not yield as other materials. Ceramics materials are naturally populated with microscopic cracks due to fabrication techniques. Upon application of a load, stress concentration occurs at the root of these cracks and fracture will eventually occur at some not easily predicted strength. In order to use ceramics in any application some design methodology must exist from which a component can be placed into service. This design methodology is CARES/LIFE (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) which has been developed and refined at NASA over the last several decades. The CARES/LIFE computer program predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component over its service life. CARES combines finite element results from a commercial FE (finite element) package such as ANSYS and experimental results to compute the abovementioned probability of failure. Over the course of several tests CARES has had great success in predicting the life of various ceramic components and has been used throughout industry. The latest challenge is to verify that CARES is valid for MEMS (Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems). To investigate a series of microtensile specimens were fractured in the laboratory. From this data, material parameters were determined and used to predict a distribution of strength for other specimens that exhibit a known stress concentration. If the prediction matches the experimental results then these parameters can be applied to a desired component outside of the laboratory. During testing nearly half of the tensile Specimens fractured at a location that was not expected and hence not captured in the FE model. It has been my duty to investigate the nature of this phenomenon in hopes of finding a better correlation between theory and empirical results. To investigate I built complete FE models of all of the tensile specimens using ANSYS. It is suspected that some misalignment naturally occurs during testing and thus additional bending stresses are present in the specimens. I modeled this eccentric loading and ran several FE trials using ANSYS/PDS (a probabilistic design system in ANSYS). My objective this summer has been familiarize myself with the CARES/LIFE program in hopes of using it in conjunction with ANSYS to help verify that CARES is applicable to MEMS-scale (greater that 1 micron, less than 1 millimeter) components.

Trapp, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗
NASA NTRS1993

An ASIC memory buffer controller for a high speed disk system

The need for large capacity, high speed mass memory storage devices has become increasingly evident at NASA during the past decade. High performance mass storage systems are crucial to present and future NASA systems. Spaceborne data storage system requirements have grown in response to the increasing amounts of data generated and processed by orbiting scientific experiments. Predictions indicate increases in the volume of data by orders of magnitude during the next decade. Current predictions are for storage capacities on the order of terabits (Tb), with data rates exceeding one gigabit per second (Gbps). As part of the design effort for a state of the art mass storage system, NASA Langley has designed a 144 CMOS ASIC to support high speed data transfers. This paper discusses the system architecture, ASIC design and some of the lessons learned in the development process.

Hodson, Robert F.↗