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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Seasonal‐To‐Decadal Analog Forecasts With a Learned Spatially‐Weighted Mask

Abstract Seasonal‐to‐decadal climate prediction is crucial for decision‐making in a number of industries, but forecasts on these timescales have limited skill. Here, we develop a data‐driven method for selecting optimal analogs for seasonal‐to‐decadal analog forecasting. Using an interpretable neural network, we learn a spatially‐weighted mask that quantifies how important each grid point is for determining whether two climate states will evolve similarly. We show that analogs selected using this weighted mask provide more skillful forecasts than analogs that are selected using traditional spatially‐uniform methods. This method is tested on two prediction problems using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensemble: multi‐year prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and seasonal prediction of El Niño Southern Oscillation. This work demonstrates a methodical approach to selecting analogs that may be useful for improving seasonal‐to‐decadal forecasts and understanding their sources of skill.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Abstract. Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Coupled Hydraulic Fracturing Simulators Using Laboratory-Scale Experiments

In this work, we aim to verify the predictions of the numerical simulators, which are used for designing field-scale hydraulic stimulation experiments. Although a strong theoretical understanding of this process has been gained over the past few decades, numerical predictions of fracture propagation in low-permeability rocks still remains a challenge. Against this background, we performed controlled laboratory-scale hydraulic fracturing experiments in granite samples, which not only provides high-quality experimental data but also a well-characterized experimental set-up. Using the experimental pressure responses and the final fracture sizes as benchmark, we compared the numerical predictions of two coupled hydraulic fracturing simulators—CSMP and GEOS. Both the simulators reproduced the experimental pressure behavior by implementing the physics of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) and lubrication theory within a reasonable degree of accuracy. The simulation results indicate that even in the very low-porosity (1–2 %) and low-permeability (10 -18 m 2 - 10 -19 m 2 ) crystalline rocks, which are usually the target of EGS, fluid-loss into the matrix and unsaturated flow impacts the formation breakdown pressure and the post-breakdown pressure trends. Therefore, underestimation of such parameters in numerical modeling can lead to significant underestimation of breakdown pressure. The simulation results also indicate the importance of implementing wellbore solvers for considering the effect of system compressibility and pressure drop due to friction in the injection line. The varying injection rate as a result of decompression at the instant of fracture initiation affects the fracture size, while the entry friction at the connection between the well and the initial notch may cause an increase in the measured breakdown pressure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental observation of open structures in elemental magnesium at terapascal pressures

Investigating how solid matter behaves at enormous pressures, such as those found in the deep interiors of giant planets, is a great experimental challenge. Over the past decade, computational predictions have revealed that compression to terapascal pressures may bring about counter-intuitive changes in the structure and bonding of solids as quantum mechanical forces grow in influence. Although this behavior has been observed at modest pressures in the highly compressible light alkali metals, it has not been established whether it is commonplace among high-pressure solids more broadly. We used shaped laser pulses at the National Ignition Facility to compress elemental Mg up to 1.3 TPa, which is approximately four times the pressure at the Earth’s core. By directly probing the crystal structure using nanosecond-duration X-ray diffraction, we found that Mg changes its crystal structure several times with non-close-packed phases emerging at the highest pressures. Our results demonstrate that phase transformations of extremely condensed matter, previously only accessible through theoretical calculations, can now be experimentally explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of Interface Growth Models Applied to Rayleigh–Taylor and Richtmyer–Meshkov Instabilities

Sophisticated numerical models that contain fluid interfaces rely upon interface evolution models to approximate the transition to turbulence near interfaces, in the presence of Rayleigh–Taylor (RTI) or Richtmyer–Meshkov (RMI) instability. Semi-analytical models have been developed in recent decades to predict the interface growth from an initial state into the nonlinear regime. Two of these models are considered in this study. They are the Goncharov and the z-models. Both of these interface models have strengths and weaknesses, which are examined here. Both of them have been implemented in the xRAGE compressible flow solver, which models fluid interfaces. The flow solver provides the fluids acceleration as a body force to the interface model. The purpose of such interface model is to evolve the early times of interface position as a subgrid model within a compressible flow simulation in order to then initialize a turbulence model. In this work, the interface models are assessed and compared for their evolution of RTI and RMI. The z-model performed better than the Goncharov model for all cases that were explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A practical guide to unbinned unfolding

Unfolding, in the context of high-energy particle physics, refers to the process of removing detector distortions in experimental data. The resulting unfolded measurements are straightforward to use for direct comparisons between experiments and a wide variety of theoretical predictions. For decades, popular unfolding strategies were designed to operate on data formatted as one or more binned histograms. In recent years, new strategies have emerged that use machine learning to unfold datasets in an unbinned manner, allowing for higher-dimensional analyses and more flexibility for current and future users of the unfolded data. This guide comprises recommendations and practical considerations from researchers across a number of major particle physics experiments who have recently put these techniques into practice on real data.

Canelli, Florencia [Univ. of Zurich (Switzerland)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the approximations underpinning fast nuclear cloud models

Fast nuclear cloud models have been used for many decades to predict cloud rise and growth following a nuclear detonation for both emergency response and debris collections mission planning. We present derivations and discussions of the approximations made by such fast nuclear cloud models in common use. In particular, the models we discuss all fundamentally rely on an empirical entrainment parameter to inexpensively model the cloud rise and growth of a buoyant bubble due to entrainment of an ambient air mass on its surface. We show the particular circumstances under which these models are equivalent as well as apply a virtual mass correction throughout them. Aside from some minor differences in representation and the use of the Boussinesq approximation, these models are all very similar and necessitate the specification of an entrainment parameter to accurately determine the cloud rise.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Supernova Convection On Neutron Star and Black Hole Masses

Abstract Our understanding of the convective-engine paradigm driving core-collapse supernovae has been used for two decades to predict the remnant mass distribution from stellar collapse. These predictions improve as our understanding of this engine increases. In this paper, we review our current understanding of convection (in particular, the growth rate of convection) in stellar collapse and study its effect on the remnant mass distribution. We show how the depth of the mass gap between neutron stars and black holes can help probe this convective growth. We include a study of the effects of stochasticity in both the stellar structure and the convective seeds caused by stellar burning. We study the role of rotation and its effect on the pair-instability mass gap. Under the paradigm limiting stellar rotation to those stars in tight binaries, we determine the effect of rotation on the remnant mass distribution.

Fryer, Chris L. (ORCID:0000000326240056)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The strong coupling constant: state of the art and the decade ahead

Theoretical predictions for particle production cross sections and decays at colliders rely heavily on perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) calculations, expressed as an expansion in powers of the strong coupling constant α$_{S}$. The current O(1%)uncertainty of the QCD coupling evaluated at the reference Z boson mass, αS(mZ2)=0.1179±0.0009, is one of the limiting factors to more precisely describe multiple processes at current and future colliders. A reduction of this uncertainty is thus a prerequisite to perform precision tests of the Standard Model as well as searches for new physics. This report provides a comprehensive summary of the state-of-the-art, challenges, and prospects in the experimental and theoretical study of the strong coupling. The current αS(mZ2)world average is derived from a combination of seven categories of observables: (i) lattice QCD, (ii) hadronic τ decays, (iii) deep-inelastic scattering and parton distribution functions fits, (iv) electroweak boson decays, hadronic final-states in (v) e$^{+}$e$^{−}$, (vi) e–p, and (vii) p–p collisions, and (viii) quarkonia decays and masses. We review the current status of each of these seven αS(mZ2)extraction methods, discuss novel α$_{S}$ determinations, and examine the averaging method used to obtain the world-average value. Each of the methods discussed provides a ‘wish list’ of experimental and theoretical developments required in order to achieve the goal of a per-mille precision on αS(mZ2)within the next decade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

UniverseMachine: Predicting Galaxy Star Formation over Seven Decades of Halo Mass with Zoom-in Simulations

In this work, we apply the empirical galaxy–halo connection model UniverseMachine to dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations of isolated Milky Way (MW)–mass halos, along with their parent cosmological simulations. This application extends UniverseMachine predictions into the ultrafaint dwarf galaxy regime (10 2 M ⊙ ≤ M * ≤ 10 5 M ⊙) and yields a well-resolved stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation over the peak halo mass range of 10 8 –10 15 M ⊙. The extensive dynamic range provided by the zoom-in simulations allows us to assess specific aspects of dwarf galaxy evolution predicted by UniverseMachine. In particular, although UniverseMachine is not constrained for dwarf galaxies with M * ≲ 10 8 M ⊙, our predicted SMHM relation is consistent with that inferred for MW satellite galaxies at z = 0 using abundance matching. However, UniverseMachine predicts that nearly all galaxies are actively star-forming below M * ~ 10 7 M ⊙ and that these systems typically form more than half of their stars at z ≲ 4, which is discrepant with the star formation histories of Local Group dwarf galaxies that favor early quenching.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Corrugation-driven symmetry breaking in magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene

Abstract The discovery of unconventional superconductivity in magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene (tBLG) supported the twist-angle-induced flat band structure predictions made a decade earlier. Numerous physical properties have since been linked to the interlayer twist angle using the flat band prediction as a guideline. However, some key observations like the nematic phase and striped charge order behind the superconductivity are missing in this initial model. Here we show that a thermodynamically stable large out-of-plane displacement, or corrugation of the bilayer, induced by the interlayer twist, demonstrates partially filled states of the flat band structure, accompanied by a broken symmetry, in the magic-angle regime and the presence of symmetry breaking associated with the superconductivity in tBLG. The distinction between low and high corrugation can also explain the observed evolution of the vibrational spectra of tBLG as a function of twist angle. Our observation that large out-of-plane deformation modes enable partial filling of states near the Fermi energy may lead to a strategy for offsetting the effects of disorder in the local twist angle, which suppresses unconventional superconductivity and correlated insulator behavior in magic-angle tBLG.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗