SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Deep ensemble”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Calibration for Cancer Risk Projections According to Uncertain Data

This paper presents forward and inverse formulations for the calibration of computational models according to uncertain data. Uncertainty in the data might be caused by a poor metrology system, measurement noise, missing or uncontrollable input variables, or by the inability to directly measure the inputs and/or outputs of interest. The forward approach performs the calibration in the space of the model’s output thereby requiring repeated model simulations. Conversely, the inverse approach leverages an ensemble of solutions to an inverse problem in order to perform the calibration in the space of the model’s parameters. As such, the computational demands of the inverse approach are considerably lower. These strategies are applied to the calibration of a radiation model that in-forms cancer risk projections for future deep space missions.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS1992

QSO's to B less than 22 and the cosmic x ray background radiation: A fluctuations correlation approach

The contribution of faint Quasi Stellar Objects (QSO's) and other discrete sources to the cosmic X-Ray Background (XRB) is estimated using an optically selected QSO sample in SA 68.2 in conjunction with archived x-ray images from the Einstein Image Proportional Counter (IPC). A new generalization of the 'x-ray image stacking' technique is employed; this new approach tests for a positional 'correlation' between positive x-ray fluctuations in the IPC images, and the locations of the optically selected QSO's. Correlation with thirty SA 68.2 QSO's permits a highly sensitive measurement of the ensemble mean x-ray flux for QSO's with 19 less than B(sub J) less than 22. Although the IPC images are of modest depth, a limiting sensitivity 1.2 times 10 to the minus 14th power erg/sec/sq cm (0.3 to 3.5 keV) is effectively archieved comparable to that of the Rosat medium deep surveys.

Anderson, S. F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Search for optimal distance spectrum convolutional codes

In order to communicate reliably and to reduce the required transmitter power, NASA uses coded communication systems on most of their deep space satellites and probes (e.g. Pioneer, Voyager, Galileo, and the TDRSS network). These communication systems use binary convolutional codes. Better codes make the system more reliable and require less transmitter power. However, there are no good construction techniques for convolutional codes. Thus, to find good convolutional codes requires an exhaustive search over the ensemble of all possible codes. In this paper, an efficient convolutional code search algorithm was implemented on an IBM RS6000 Model 580. The combination of algorithm efficiency and computational power enabled us to find, for the first time, the optimal rate 1/2, memory 14, convolutional code.

Connor, Matthew C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Scattering and Extinction by Spherical Particles Immersed in an Absorbing Host Medium

Many applications of electromagnetic scattering involve particles immersed in an absorbing rather than lossless medium, thereby making the conventional scattering theory potentially inapplicable. To analyze this issue quantitatively, we employ the FORTRAN program developed recently on the basis of the first-principles electromagnetic theory to study far-field scattering by spherical particles embedded in an absorbing infinite host medium. We further examine the phenomenon of negative extinction identified recently for monodisperse spheres and uncover additional evidence in favor of its interference origin. We identify the main effects of increasing the width of the size distribution on the ensemble-averaged extinction efficiency factor and show that negative extinction can be eradicated by averaging over a very narrow size distribution. We also analyze, for the first time, the effects of absorption inside the host medium and ensemble averaging on the phase function and other elements of the Stokes scattering matrix. It is shown in particular that increasing absorption significantly suppresses the interference structure and can result in a dramatic expansion of the areas of positive polarization. Furthermore, the phase functions computed for larger effective size parameters can develop a very deep minimum at side-scattering angles bracketed by a strong diffraction peak in the forward direction and a pronounced backscattering maximum.

Far-field electromagnetic scattering; Absorbing ho↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005]. Please see Tao et al. (2007) for more detailed description on aerosol impact on precipitation. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low clean concentration and a high dirty concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

cloud-resolving model↗

NASA NTRS2018

Starling1 - Mission Technologies Overview

The Starling series of demonstration missions will test technologies required to achieve affordable, distributed spacecraft ("swarm") missions that: are scalable to at least 100 spacecraft for applications that include synchronized multipoint measurements; involve closely coordinated ensembles of two or more spacecraft operating as a single unit for interferometric, synthetic aperture, or similar sensor architectures; or use autonomous or semi-autonomous operation of multiple spacecraft functioning as a unit to achieve science or other mission objectives with low-cost small spacecraft.Starling1 will focus on developing technologies that enable scalability and deep space application. The mission goals include the demonstration of a Mobile Ad-hoc NETwork (MANET) through an in-space communication experiment, vision based relative navigation through the Starling Formation-flying Optical eXperiment (StarFOX), and demonstration of autonomous spacecraft reconfiguration using technologies developed by the Distributed System Autonomy (DSA) project.

Cannon, Howard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗

NASA NTRS1988

Numerical simulation of tropical cumulus clouds and their interaction with the subcloud layer

A two-dimensional numerical model, with an emphasis on turbulent processes in the boundary layer and in clouds, was developed for simulating an ensemble of cumulus clouds. The model was used to investigate the response of tropical cumulus clouds to imposed large-scale vertical advection by performing two simulations which were identical except that one was with upward large-scale vertical velocity (the 'disturbed' case) and the other was without any advection (the 'undisturbed' case). The results showed that deep cumulus clouds formed in the disturbed case, while only shallow clouds formed in the undisturbed case. The subcloud layer (SCL) in the disturbed case was strongly affected by cumulus circulations and rain evaporation, with both cumulus updrafts and downdrafts being important contributors to the SCL sensible and latent heat fluxes. Cumulus-scale circulation in the disturbed SCL determined where new clouds formed by creating convergence zones and moisture anomalies.

Krueger, Steven K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Pixel Size on the Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community the observed TOA SW and LW fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. CERES utilizes hourly geostationary imager derived broadband fluxes, which rely on the channel radiances and associated cloud retrievals, to estimate the broadband fluxes between CERES observations. This requires stable imager visible channel calibration, which the CERES project verifies by utilizing deep convective clouds (DCC) as an invariant Earth target. GSICS, which is an international collaboration, is also evaluating the DCC invariant target calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary imagers anchored to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. Tropical DCC are the brightest, coldest, most Lambertian, top of the atmosphere Earth targets. The DCC invariant target calibration methodology relies on a large ensemble of tropical DCC-identified pixel-level reflectances, which are histogrammed to find the mode reflectance of the probability density function (PDF). The imager stability is monitored by tracking the monthly DCC PDF mode reflectance over time. Radiometric scaling is accomplished by ratioing the GEO and VIIRS DCC mode reflectance values. The PDF shape and mode dependency on sensor pixel resolution, which varies among sensors, is unknown. This study will characterize the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC PDFs by aggregating Landsat 30-m pixel reflectances into various coarser pixel resolutions ranging from 100-m to 4-km, and comparing the corresponding PDF statistics. This analysis will assist in improving the uncertainty in a DCC-based intercalibration between instruments with different pixel resolutions.

Conor Haney↗

NASA NTRS2011

Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Gas Release During the 2010 Apparition of Comet 103P/Hartley-2

We report measurements of eight primary volatiles (H2O, HCN, CH4, C2H6, CH3OH, C2H2, H2CO, and NH3) and two product species (OH and NH2) in comet lO3P/Hartley-2 using high dispersion infrared spectroscopy. We quantified the long- and short-term behavior of volatile release over a three-month interval that encompassed the comet's close approach to Earth, its perihelion passage, and flyby of the comet by the Deep Impact spacecraft during the EPOXI mission. We present production rates for individual species, their mixing ratios relative to water, and their spatial distributions in the coma on multiple dates. The production rates for water, ethane, HCN, and methanol vary in a manner consistent with independent measures of nucleus rotation, but mixing ratios for HCN, C2H6, & CH3OH are independent of rotational phase. Our results demonstrate that the ensemble average composition of gas released from the nucleus is well defined, and relatively constant over the three-month interval (September 18 through December 1,7). If individual vents vary in composition, enough diverse vents must be active simultaneously to approximate (in sum) the bulk composition of the nucleus. The released primary volatiles exhibit diverse spatial properties which favor the presence of separate polar and apolar ice phases in the nucleus, establish dust and gas release from icy clumps, and from the nucleus, and provide insights into the driver for the cyanogen (CN) polar jet. The spatial distributions of C2H6 & HCN along the near-polar jet (UT 19.5 October) and nearly orthogonal to it (UT 22.5 October) are discussed relative to the origin of CN. The ortho-para ratio (OPR) of water was 2.85 +/- 0.20; the lower bound (2.65) defines T(sub spin) > 32 K. These values are consistent with results returned from ISO in 1997 .

Mumma, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Belt-zone variations in the Jovian cloud structure

Voyager Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) observations of Jupiter in the far infrared (180-1200/cm) are sensitive to emission originating from pressures less than 2 bars, while the 5-micrometer (1800-2300/cm) observations are primarily sensitive to emission originating from pressures greater than 2 bars. We use these differences in the location of the peak emission level to constrain the properties of the upper tropospheric cloud structure from the far-infrared observations and then use the 5-micrometer observations, with the upper tropospheric cloud structure fixed, to constrain the deep cloud structure. The relationship between observed 45- and 5-micrometer brightness temperatures reveals three distinct regions between +/- 25 deg latitude: North Equatorial Belt hot spots, which are 'hot' at both 45 and 5 micrometers; Equatorial Zone spectra, which are 'warm' at 45 micrometers and 'cold' at 5 micrometers; and North Tropical Zone spectra, which are 'cold' at both 45 and 5 micrometers. We find that the hot extreme spectral ensemble is unique to belts, and the cold extreme spectral ensembles are unique to zones, but that all other intermediate spectral ensembles are common to both regions. Analyses of these spectra using an anisotropic multiple scattering radiative transfer model reveal that the primary difference between belts and zones is the increased opacity and vertical extent of clouds in zones relative to their belt counterparts. In addition, we find a shift in the location of the para hydrogen gradient toward lower pressures in zones, with an increase in the 'equilibrated' cloud-top para fraction. We suggest that all of the variations in gas abundance profiles, temperature, and cloud structure are consistent with the effects of a simple mean circulation and large-scale wave motions.

Carlson, Barbara E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Formations of Tethered Spacecraft as Stable Platforms for Far IR and Sub-mm Astronomy

In this paper we describe current research in tethered formations for interferometry, and a roadmap to demonstrating the required key technologies via on-ground and in-orbit testing. We propose an integrated kilometer-size tethered spacecraft formation flying concept which enables Far IR and Sub-mm astronomy observations from space. A rather general model is used to predict the dynamics, control, and estimation performance of formations of spacecraft connected by tethers in LEO and deep space. These models include the orbital and tethered formation dynamics, environmental models, and models of the formation estimator/controller/commander. Both centralized and decentralized control/sensing/estimation schemes are possible, and dynamic ranges of interest for sensing/control are described. Key component/subsystem technologies are described which need both ground-based and in-orbit demonstration prior to their utilization in precision space interferometry missions using tethered formations. Defining an orbiting formation as an ensemble of orbiting spacecraft performing a cooperative task, recent work has demonstrated the validity of the tethering the spacecraft to provide both the required formation rigidity and satisfy the formation reconfiguration needs such as interferometer baseline control. In our concept, several vehicles are connected and move along the tether, so that to reposition them the connecting tether links must vary in length. This feature enables variable and precise baseline control while the system spins around the boresight. The control architecture features an interferometer configuration composed of one central combiner spacecraft and two aligned collector spacecraft. The combiner spacecraft acts as the formation leader and is also where the centralized sensing and estimation functions reside. Some of the issues analyzed with the model are: dynamic modes of deformation of the distributed structure, architecture of the formation sensor, and sources of dynamical perturbation that need to be mitigated for precision operation in space. Examples from numerical simulation of an envisioned scenario in heliocentric orbit demonstrate the potential of the concept for space interferometry.

Quadrelli, Marco B.↗

NASA NTRS2019

DYAMOND: The DYnamics of the Atmospheric General Circulation Modeled on Non-Hydrostatic Domains

A review of the experimental protocol and motivation for DYAMOND, the first intercomparison project of global storm-resolving models, is presented. Nine models submitted simulation output for a 40-day (1 August–10 September 2016) intercomparison period. Eight of these employed a tiling of the sphere that was uniformly less than 5 km. By resolving the transient dynamics of convective storms in the tropics, global storm-resolving models remove the need to parameterize tropical deep convection, providing a fundamentally more sound representation of the climate system and a more natural link to commensurately high-resolution data from satellite-borne sensors. The models and some basic characteristics of their output are described in more detail, as is the availability and planned use of this output for future scientific study. Tropically and zonally averaged energy budgets, precipitable water distributions, and precipitation from the model ensemble are evaluated, as is their representation of tropical cyclones and the predictability of column water vapor, the latter being important for tropical weather.

Bjorn Stevens↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

NASA NTRS2001

Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Specific Features and Budget Analysis - Part 1

A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.

Shie, C.-L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

space biology↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on the impact of the aerosol on deep precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications). We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems. In addition, high - resolution (spatial. 2km, and temporal, I minute) visualization showing the model results will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗