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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (<10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Marusiak, Angela G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Method for Obtaining High Frequency, Global, IR-Based Convective Cloud Tops for Studies of the TTL

Models of varying complexity that simulate water vapor and clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) show that including convection directly is essential to properly simulating the water vapor and cloud distribution. In boreal winter, for example, simulations without convection yield a water vapor distribution that is too uniform with longitude, as well as minimal cloud distributions. Two things are important for convective simulations. First, it is important to get the convective cloud top potential temperature correctly, since unrealistically high values (reaching above the cold point tropopause too frequently) will cause excessive hydration of the stratosphere. Second, one must capture the time variation as well, since hydration by convection depends on the local relative humidity (temperature), which has substantial variation on synoptic time scales in the TTL. This paper describes a method for obtaining high frequency (3-hourly) global convective cloud top distributions which can be used in trajectory models. The method uses rainfall thresholds, standard IR brightness temperatures, meteorological temperature analyses, and physically realistic and documented corrections IR brightness temperature corrections to derive cloud top altitudes and potential temperatures. The cloud top altitudes compare well with combined CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO data, both in time-averaged overall vertical and horizontal distributions and in individual cases (correlations of .65-.7). An important finding is that there is significant uncertainty (nearly .5 km) in evaluating the statistical distribution of convective cloud tops even using lidar. Deep convection whose tops are in regions of high relative humidity (such as much of the TTL), will cause clouds to form above the actual convection. It is often difficult to distinguish these clouds from the actual convective cloud due to the uncertainties of evaluating ice water content from lidar measurements. Comparison with models show that calculated cloud top altitudes are generally higher than those calculated by global analyses (e.g., MERRA). Interannual variability in the distribution of convective cloud top altitudes is also investigated.

hydration↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Puzzling Structure of Solar Convection: Window into the Dynamo

The operation of the solar dynamo, with all of its remarkable spatio-temporal ordering, remains an outstanding problem of modern solar physics. A number of mechanisms that might plausibly contribute to its operation have been proposed, but the relative role played by each remains unclear. This uncertainty stems from continuing questions concerning the speed and structure of deep-seated convective flows. Those flows are in-turn thought to sustain both the Sun’s turbulent EMF and the large-scale flows of differential rotation and meridional circulation suspected of influencing the dynamo’s organization and timing. Ultimately, the convective and large-scale flow structure derive from the Coriolis force. When the Coriolis effect is weak (rapid convective flow), convection exhibits little organization in its spatial structure, and the meridional flow is expected to assume a single-celled profile within each hemisphere. Convection subject to strong Coriolis forces instead organizes into compact, spiraling columnar structures and sustains meridional flows that possess multiple cells in latitude and radius. The implications for the dynamo in these two regimes are substantial, impacting the flux-transport properties of any assumed meridional flow and the convectively-driven EMF. Continued progress in this area is complicated by (i) inconsistencies between helioseismic measurements of convective and meridional flow made with different techniques and instruments, and (ii) a lack of high-latitude data for convection, differential rotation, and meridional flow. We suggest that the path forward to resolving these difficulties is twofold. First, the acquisition of long-term helioseismic and emissivity measurements obtained from a polar vantage point is vital to complete our picture of the Sun’s outer convection zone. Second, sustained and expanded investment in theory-oriented and combined theory/observational research initiatives will be crucial to fully exploit these new observations and to resolve inconsistencies between existing measurements.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗
NASA NTRS2002

Navigation of the Deep Space 1 spacecraft at Borrelly

The navigation challenges posed by Deep Space 1's flyby of comet Borrelly were considerable due to the uncertainty in the knowledge of the comet's ephemeris, as well as difficulty in determining the spacecraft's ephemeris caused by relatively large non-gravitational forces acting on the comet. The challenges were met by using a combination of radio, optical, and interferometric data types to obtain a final fly by accuracy of less than 10 km.

comet encounter navigation autonomous navigation n↗
NASA NTRS2020

Aerosol Layer Height with Enhanced Spectral Coverage Achieved by Synergy between VIIRS and OMPS-NM Measurements

This letter presents a near production-ready algorithm to retrieve the height of biomass burning smoke and mineral dust aerosols as part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Deep Blue aerosol data product suite. It utilizes the enhanced spectral coverage achieved by using colocated data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM), both aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. In particular, the 412-nm top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from VIIRS and the ultraviolet aerosol index from OMPS-NM are used to determine the height and single-scattering albedo of the absorbing aerosols simultaneously. Constraints on aerosol optical depth at 550 nm and surface reflectance for the 412-nm band are provided by the operational VIIRS Deep Blue aerosol product. Wildfire smoke layer heights obtained from the algorithm over North America, where smoke plumes often stretched thousands of kilometers, are shown to agree with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, with an uncertainty generally within 1–1.5 km. This new height data set will be included in the upcoming Version 2 VIIRS Deep Blue aerosol product.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2020

Aerosol Layer Height With Enhanced Spectral Coverage Achieved by Synergy Between VIIRS and OMPS-NM Measurements

This study presents a near production-ready algorithm to retrieve the height of biomass burning smoke and mineral dust aerosols as part of NASA’s Deep Blue aerosol data product suite. It utilizes the enhanced spectral coverage achieved by using co-located data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM), both aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. Specifically, the 412 nm top-of-atmosphere reflectance from VIIRS and the ultraviolet aerosol index from OMPS-NM are used to determine the height and single-scattering albedo of the absorbing aerosols simultaneously. Constraints on aerosol optical depth at 550 nm and surface reflectance for the 412 nm band are provided by the operational VIIRS Deep Blue aerosol product. Wildfire smoke layer heights obtained from the algorithm over North America, where smoke plumes often stretched thousands of kilometers, are shown to agree with those from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, with an uncertainty generally within 1-1.5 km. This new height data set will be included in the upcoming Version 2 VIIRS Deep Blue aerosol product.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS1991

Small-scale fluctuations of the X-ray background

Fluctuations of the diffuse X-ray background are investigated using the Einstein Observatory Deep Survey data. Small angular-scale variations of the numbers of counts in the energy range 0.8-3.5 keV in the central 32 x 32 sq arcmin of the IPC are analyzed by means of the two-point correlation function. It is shown that detector modulation contributes substantially to the observed fluctuations. Instrumental effects are estimated and subtracted from the raw observations. The residual fluctuations are used to estimate the log N-log S relation of the X-ray sources below the Einstein sensitivity limit. Taking into account numerous uncertainties involved in this analysis, it is shown that the amplitude of fluctuations observed in the Deep Survey data is consistent with a relatively small number of sources producing the X-ray background.

Soltan, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Improving Trust in Deep Neural Networks with Nearest Neighbors

Deep neural networks are used increasingly for perception and decision-making in UAVs. For example, they can be used to recognize objects from images and decide what actions the vehicle should take. While deep neural networks can perform very well at complex tasks, their decisions may be unintuitive to a human operator. When a human disagrees with a neural network prediction, due to the black box nature of deep neural networks, it can be unclear whether the system knows something the human does not or whether the system is malfunctioning. This uncertainty is problematic when it comes to ensuring safety. As a result, it is important to develop technologies for explaining neural network decisions for trust and safety. This paper explores a modification to the deep neural network classification layer to produce both a predicted label and an explanation to support its prediction. Specifically, at test time, we replace the final output layer of the neural network classifier by a k-nearest neighbor classifier. The nearest neighbor classifier produces 1) a predicted label through voting and 2) the nearest neighbors involved in the prediction, which represent the most similar examples from the training dataset. Because prediction and explanation are derived from the same underlying process, this approach guarantees that the explanations are always relevant to the predictions. We demonstrate the approach on a convolutional neural network for a UAV image classification task. We perform experiments using a forest trail image dataset and show empirically that the hybrid classifier can produce intuitive explanations without loss of predictive performance compared to the original neural network. We also show how the approach can be used to help identify potential issues in the network and training process.

Lee, Ritchie↗
NASA NTRS2014

Convective Transport of Very-short-lived Bromocarbons to the Stratosphere

We use the NASA GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) to quantify the contribution of two most important brominated very short-lived substances (VSLS), bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), to stratospheric bromine and its sensitivity to convection strength. Model simulations suggest that the most active transport of VSLS from the marine boundary layer through the tropopause occurs over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific warm pool, and off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Together, convective lofting of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 and their degradation products supplies ∼8 ppt total bromine to the base of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL, ∼150 hPa), similar to the amount of VSLS organic bromine available in the marine boundary layer (∼7.8-8.4 ppt) in the above active convective lofting regions. Of the total ∼8 ppt VSLS-originated bromine that enters the base of TTL at ∼150 hPa, half is in the form of source gas injection (SGI) and half as product gas injection (PGI). Only a small portion (< 10%) the VSLS-originated bromine is removed via wet scavenging in the TTL before reaching the lower stratosphere. On global and annual average, CHBr3 and CH2Br2, together, contribute ∼7.7 pptv to the present-day inorganic bromine in the stratosphere. However, varying model deep convection strength between maximum and minimum convection conditions can introduce a ∼2.6 pptv uncertainty in the contribution of VSLS to inorganic bromine in the stratosphere (BryVSLS). Contrary to the conventional wisdom, minimum convection condition leads to a larger BryVSLS as the reduced scavenging in soluble product gases, thus a significant increase in PGI (2-3 ppt), greatly exceeds the relative minor decrease in SGI (a few 10ths ppt.

bromine↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble-Based Deep Learning for Estimating PM2.5 over California with Multisource Big Data Including Wildfire Smoke

Estimating PM2.5 concentrations and their prediction uncertainties at a high spatiotemporal resolution is important for air pollution health effect studies. This is particularly challenging for California, which has high variability in natural (e.g. wildfires, dust) and anthropogenic emissions, meteorology, topography (e.g. desert surfaces, mountains, snow cover) and land use.

air quality↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Prototype Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator (SWIPE): Towards Global Coastal and Inland Water Quality and Algal Biodiversity Monitoring

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will provide updates on NASA’s prototype open-source aquatic modeling platform, Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator (SWIPE), which is a comprehensive, multi-faceted modeling platform for both forward and inverse modeling of diverse aquatic ecosystems from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). SWIPE provides a cohesive application which leverages recent advancements in particle modeling, Big Data analytics, and machine learning to develop a high-fidelity synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development for multispectral or upcoming hyperspectral missions. Some of the prominent features of SWIPE to be discussed include: 1. Advanced hyperspectral modeling of globally diverse algal and non-algal particles using a novel two-layer coated sphere scattering model and radiative transfer modeling, 2. Massive, highly detailed synthetic spectral libraries of Analysis-Ready-Data (ARD) which include spectral libraries of particle microphysics, water biogeophysical and optical properties, as well as surface and TOA reflectances at 1 nm resolution, 3. An ensemble of pre-built analytic, machine learning, and deep learning inversion algorithms for various water quality and biodiversity related retrieval parameters and uncertainty quantification, 4. Sensor-agnostic water quality inversion at wide ranging spatial and spectral resolutions including a codebase for seamless application in the Google Earth Engine and NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) for planetary scale analysis. SWIPE will be a fully open-source platform based in python with comprehensive documentation, tutorials, and options for distributed computing on high performance computing clusters or on single, local machines. Further, we will discuss how we envision SWIPE contributing towards a global analysis of coastal and inland water quality dynamics.

top-of-atmosphere (TOA)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous RPOD for Arbitrarily Configured Spacecraft with Anomaly Detection

Autonomous GN&C is a necessary component for a sustainable deep-space logistics architecture. The challenges for establishing robust autonomy are numerous, from state uncertainty, to anomaly detection and recovery. In this work, previous work investigating autonomous GN&C for arbitrary thruster configurations and mass properties is expanded to include state uncertainty and anomaly detection. Logistics vehicles with off-center-of-mass thruster configurations and in the presence of large but realistic state uncertainties are simulated in a Rendezvous, Proximity Operations and Docking scenario. Furthermore, stuck and non-functional thrusters are simulated, demonstrating the vehicle's ability to identify and overcome thruster anomalies. The simulations demonstrate that even with these realistic ambiguities, the vehicle is able to converge to the desired pose.

GN&C↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VFR Trajectory Forecasting using Deep Generative Model for Autonomous Airspace Operations

To enable the airspace integration of autonomous operations, such as uncrewed aircraft conducting cargo deliveries, there is a need to forecast the positions of the surrounding traffic with which they may interact. This paper focuses on forecasting Visual Flight Rules traffic, a significant source of uncertainty and risk in the airspace, especially around small regional airports, due to the unplanned and often untracked nature of such flights. A deep generative model is developed, trained on historical traffic data at example towered and non-towered airports, and used to predict flight trajectories. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of variational autoencoder and classical machine learning forecasting when applied to both the towered and non-towered airports over varying time horizons. The results show the advantages of the variational autoencoder in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts over varying time horizons.

uncrewed aircraft↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VFR Trajectory Forecasting using Deep Generative Model for Autonomous Airspace Operations

To enable the airspace integration of autonomous operations, such as uncrewed aircraft conducting cargo deliveries, there is a need to forecast the positions of the surrounding traffic with which they may interact. This paper focuses on forecasting Visual Flight Rules traffic, a significant source of uncertainty and risk in the airspace, especially around small regional airports, due to the unplanned and often untracked nature of such flights. A deep generative model is developed, trained on historical traffic data at example towered and non-towered airports, and used to predict flight trajectories. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of variational autoencoder and classical machine learning forecasting when applied to both the towered and non-towered airports over varying time horizons. The results show the advantages of the variational autoencoder in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts over varying time horizons.

uncrewed aircraft↗
NASA NTRS1982

Radio frequency selection and interference prevention

The bands available for deep-space communications, and the choice of particular mission frequencies are discussed. The more general susceptibility of deep-space Earth stations to various kinds of interference is then presented. An associated topic is the development of protection criteria that specify maximum allowable levels of interference. Next, the prediction of interference from near-Earth satellites is described, with particular emphasis on the problems and uncertainties of such predictions. Finally, a brief description of other activities aimed at the prevention or avoidance of interference to deep-space radio communications is given.

Degroot, N. F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Revised Eros Orbit Phase Trajectory Design

Trajectory design of the orbit phase of the NEAR mission involves a new process that departs significantly from those procedures used in previous missions. In most cases, a precise spacecraft ephemeris is designed well in advance of arrival at the target body. For NEAR, the uncertainty in the dynamic environment around Eros does not allow the luxury of a precise spacecraft trajectory to be defined in advance. The principal cause of this uncertainty is the limited knowledge oi' the gravity field a,-id rotational state of Eros. As a result, the concept for the NEAR trajectory design is to define a number of rules for satisfying spacecraft, mission, and science constraints, and then apply these rules to various assumptions for the model of Eros. Nominal, high, and low Eros mass models are used for testing the trajectory design strategy and to bracket the ranges of parameter variations that are expected upon arrival at the asteroid. The final design is completed after arrival at Eros and determination of the actual gravity field and rotational state. As a result of the unplanned termination of the deep space rendezvous maneuver on December 20, 1998, the NEAR spacecraft passed within 3830 km of Eros on December 23, 1998. This flyby provided a brief glimpse of Eros, and allowed for a more accurate model of the rotational parameters and gravity field uncertainty. Furthermore, after the termination of the deep space rendezvous burn, contact with the spacecraft was lost and the NEAR spacecraft lost attitude control. During the subsequent gyrations of the spacecraft, hydrazine thruster firings were used to regain attitude control. This unplanned thruster activity used Much of the fuel margin allocated for the orbit phase. Consequently, minimizing fuel consumption is now even more important.

Helfrich, J↗