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At least 55 records · Page 3

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data: The first iteration

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reconstruction of dark energy and expansion dynamics using Gaussian processes

An important issue in cosmology is reconstructing the effective dark energy equation of state directly from observations. With few physically motivated models, future dark energy studies cannot only be based on constraining a dark energy parameter space, as the errors found depend strongly on the parametrisation considered. We present a new non-parametric approach to reconstructing the history of the expansion rate and dark energy using Gaussian Processes, which is a fully Bayesian approach for smoothing data. We present a pedagogical introduction to Gaussian Processes, and discuss how it can be used to robustly differentiate data in a suitable way. Using this method we show that the Dark Energy Survey - Supernova Survey (DES) can accurately recover a slowly evolving equation of state to σ{sub w} = ±0.05 (95% CL) at z = 0 and ±0.25 at z = 0.7, with a minimum error of ±0.025 at the sweet-spot at z ∼ 0.16, provided the other parameters of the model are known. Errors on the expansion history are an order of magnitude smaller, yet make no assumptions about dark energy whatsoever. A code for calculating functions and their first three derivatives using Gaussian processes has been developed and is available for download.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TENDL: Complete Nuclear Data Library for Innovative Nuclear Science and Technology

The TENDL library is now established as one of the major nuclear data libraries in the world, striving for completeness and quality of nuclear data files for all isotopes, evaluation methods, processing and applied performance. To reach this status, some basic principles have been applied which sets it apart from other libraries: reproducible dedicated evaluations when differential data are available, through determination of nuclear models implemented in TALYS and their parameters, completeness (with or without experimental data), format and processing standardization, automation of production and reproducibility. In this paper, we will outline how such an approach has become a reality, and recall some of the past successes since the first TENDL release in 2008. Next, we will demonstrate the performance of the latest TENDL releases for different application fields, as well as new approaches for uncertainty quantification based on Bayesian inference methods and possible differential and integral adjustments. Also, current limitations of the library performances due to modelling and needs for new and more precise experimental data will be outlined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analysis of pion production data measured by HADES in proton-proton collisions at 1.25 GeV

Baryon resonance production in proton-proton collisions at a kinetic beam energy of 1.25 GeV is investigated. The multi-differential data were measured by the HADES Collaboration. Exclusive channels with one pion in the final state ($np\pi^+$ and $pp\pi^0$ were put to extended studies based on various observables in the framework of a one-pion exchange model and with solutions obtained within the framework of a partial wave analysis (PWA) of the Bonn-Gatchina group. The results of the PWA confirm the dominant contribution of the $\Delta(1232)$, yet with a sizable impact of the $N(1440)$ and non-resonant partial waves.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Differential correction capability of the GTDS using TDRSS data

A differential correction (DC) capability was implemented in the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) to process satellite tracking data acquired via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TRDRSS). Configuration of the TDRSS is reviewed, observation modeling is presented, and major features of the capability are discussed. The following types of TDRSS data can be processed by GTDS: two way relay range and Doppler measurements, hybrid relay range and Doppler measurements, one way relay Doppler measurements, and differenced one way relay Doppler measurements. These data may be combined with conventional ground based direct tracking data. By using Bayesian weighted least squares techniques, the software allows the simultaneous determination of the trajectories of up to four different satellites - one user satellite and three relay satellites. In addition to satellite trajectories, the following parameters can be optionally solved: for drag coefficient, reflectivity of a satellite for solar radiation pressure, transponder delay, station position, and biases.

Liu, S. Y.↗

The X-33 range Operations Control Center

This paper describes the capabilities and features of the X-33 Range Operations Center at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. All the unprocessed data will be collected and transmitted over fiber optic lines to the Lockheed Operations Control Center for real-time flight monitoring of the X-33 vehicle. By using the existing capabilities of the Western Aeronautical Test Range, the Range Operations Center will provide the ability to monitor all down-range tracking sites for the Extended Test Range systems. In addition to radar tracking and aircraft telemetry data, the Telemetry and Radar Acquisition and Processing System is being enhanced to acquire vehicle command data, differential Global Positioning System corrections and telemetry receiver signal level status. The Telemetry and Radar Acquisition Processing System provides the flexibility to satisfy all X-33 data processing requirements quickly and efficiently. Additionally, the Telemetry and Radar Acquisition Processing System will run a real-time link margin analysis program. The results of this model will be compared in real-time with actual flight data. The hardware and software concepts presented in this paper describe a method of merging all types of data into a common database for real-time display in the Range Operations Center in support of the X-33 program. All types of data will be processed for real-time analysis and display of the range system status to ensure public safety.

Shy, Karla S.↗

PolyDODT: a macrocyclic elastomer with unusual properties

The effect of reaction conditions on the structure of poly(3,6-dioxa-1,8-octanedithiol) (polyDODT) made by Reversible Radical Recombination Polymerization (R3P) using triethylamine (TEA), H 2 O 2 and air was investigated. 800 MHz (1 and 2D) NMR was used to investigate the polymer structures. Sensitivity analysis provided direct evidence for high purity cyclic polyDODT up to M n ~ 100 000 g mol –1 . Here, comparative analysis by High Resolution Multidetector Size Exclusion Chromatography (SEC) using integrated data showed that the cycles had lower viscosity and were more compact (both for R g and R h ) than linear samples of similar molecular weight. However, differential data revealed unusual behavior. While lower molecular weight cyclic polymers eluted later and had lower intrinsic viscosity than their linear counterparts at the same molecular weight, at higher molecular weights the polymers showed strange behavior: both the diffusion coefficient measured by Quasielastic Light Scattering (QELS) and Mark–Houwink–Sakurada plots of intrinsic viscosity for linear and cyclic polyDODT were found to converge. R3P, an aqueous based “green” method is capable of producing polymers at the 10–100 g scale in the lab, which will allow more detailed studies of this new class of biodegradable elastomers so further experimentation can be performed to elucidate the reasons for the unusual findings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Evaluation Framework of Differential and Integral Data [Slides]

This presentation discusses the Bayesian Monte Carlo evaluation framework of differential and integral data, specifically in relation to two methods that are based on Bayes theorem, which assumes that all PDFs are normal (Gaussian) and that they use a linear approximation for IBEs. The presentation states that basic components of the MC evaluation framework include the computation of random MC ensemble from ENDF File 32, the simulation of IBEs and R-matrix cross section compared to experimental data, and the computation of weighted averages. It also states that the application to U-233 indicates deviation from the conventional linear approximation. In conclusion, evaluation framework will require MCMC method e.g., Metropolis-Hastings (M.-H.).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fast Neutron Evaluations for Advanced Lead Systems [Slides]

This presentation touches on fast neutron evaluations for advanced lead systems. This lecture covers project goals to evaluate lead (Pb) isotopes with a focus on improving predictive capabilities of fast systems. Additionally, the project sets out to benchmark available critical and shielding experiments with sensitivity to Pb and utilize RPI Quasi-Differential Scattering experiment for scattering reactions. This project will perform Resolved Resonance Region (RRR) and fast region evaluations for natural Pb isotopes with differential data on EXchange FORmat for experimental numerical nuclear reaction data (EXFOR) and ultimately will submit evaluations to the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Lithology and chronology of ice-sheet fluctuations (magnetic susceptibility of cores from the western Ross Sea)

The goals of the marine geology part of WAIS include reconstructing the chronology and areal extent of ice-sheet fluctuations and understanding the climatic and oceanographic influences on ice-sheet history. As an initial step toward attaining these goals, down-core volume magnetic susceptibility (MS) logs of piston cores from three N-S transects in the western Ross Sea are compared. The core transects are within separate petrographic provinces based on analyses of till composition. The provinces are thought to reflect the previous locations of ice streams on the shelf during the last glaciation. Magnetic susceptibility is a function of magnetic mineral composition, sediment texture, and sediment density. It is applied in the western Ross Sea for two purposes: (1) to determine whether MS data differentiates the three transects (i.e., flow lines), and thus can be used to make paleodrainage reconstructions of the late Wisconsinan ice sheet; and (2) to determine whether the MS data can aid in distinguishing basal till diamictons from diamictons of glacial-marine origin and thus, aid paleoenvironmental interpretations. A comparison of the combined data of cores in each transect is presented.

Jennings, Anne E.↗

Hawai‘i Supernova Flows: a peculiar velocity survey using over a Thousand Supernovae in the near-infrared

ABSTRACT We introduce the Hawai‘i Supernova Flows project and present summary statistics of the first 1217 astronomical transients observed, 668 of which are spectroscopically classified Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia). Our project is designed to obtain systematics-limited distances to SNe Ia while consuming minimal dedicated observational resources. To date, we have performed almost 5000 near-infrared (NIR) observations of astronomical transients and have obtained spectra for over 200 host galaxies lacking published spectroscopic redshifts. In this survey paper, we describe the methodology used to select targets, collect/reduce data, calculate distances, and perform quality cuts. We compare our methods to those used in similar studies, finding general agreement or mild improvement. Our summary statistics include various parametrizations of dispersion in the Hubble diagrams produced using fits to several commonly used SN Ia models. We find the lowest dispersions using the SNooPy package’s EBV_model2, with a root mean square deviation of 0.165 mag and a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.123 mag. The full utility of the Hawai‘i Supernova Flows data set far exceeds the analyses presented in this paper. Our photometry will provide a valuable test bed for models of SN Ia incorporating NIR data. Differential cosmological studies comparing optical samples and combined optical and NIR samples will have increased leverage for constraining chromatic effects like dust extinction. We invite the community to explore our data by making the light curves, fits, and host galaxy redshifts publicly accessible.

Do, Aaron (ORCID:0000000334297845)↗

Resonance Region Cross-Section Data Advancements for Nuclear Criticality Safety Applications and ENDF/B-VII.1

ORNL has completed new resonance region cross-section evaluations with covariance data to support nuclear criticality safety applications. This paper summarizes some of the most recent cross-section evaluations that have been completed and will be made available to process into nuclear data libraries for use with radiation transport codes. Specifically, the paper summarizes the work that has been completed for 35 Cl, 37 Cl, 50 Cr, 52 Cr, 53 Cr, 54 Cr, 39 K, 41 K, 19 F, 55 Mn, 58 Ni, 60 Ni, 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu. Many of the new cross-section evaluations are based on new differential data measurements in the resonance region. Furthermore, corresponding covariance data analyses have been performed in conjunction with the resonance evaluation effort thereby providing a consistent set of covariance data to complement the resonance region cross-section evaluations. As a result, the new cross-section evaluations with covariance data can be used to support sensitivity/uncertainty analyses for criticality safety applications.

19-F↗

Ultimate Precision on Sin^2 Theta_23 With the Numi Experiments

There were two major goals to this proposal: the study of the discrepancy between data and MC in the NuMI Medium Energy neutrino beam and the incorporation of the MINOS and NOVA neutrino oscillation datasets. The first topic was approached via development of a simulation of the NuMI beam monitoring instrumentation suite. Initially, the Horn-Off current data sets were used to measure a set of hadron production parameters which improved the data/MC agreement in a way which was independent of the focusing parameters. The peak position discrepancy was only explained by a large (10kA) reduction in the horn current. A full simulation of the muon monitors was developed to attempt to make an independent measurement of the horn current by means of differential data taken by those monitors. While only at the 5kA level, the result corroborated the former findings. The second goal has not yet been completed but progress has focused on understanding how to modify the MINOS MC to take into account the MEC contribution which is missing from the underlying NEUGEN MC. A number of improvements to the MINOS reconstruction have been necessary. The framework to run the fits on the combined data has been completed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Detailed high-accuracy megavoltage transmission measurements: A sensitive experimental benchmark of EGSnrc

Purpose: There are three goals for this study: (a) to perform detailed megavoltage transmission measurements in order to identify the factors that affect the measurement accuracy, (b) to use the measured data as a benchmark for the EGSnrc system in order to identify the computational limiting factors, and (c) to provide data for others to benchmark Monte Carlo codes. Methods: Transmission measurements are performed at the National Research Council Canada on a research linac whose incident electron parameters are independently known. Automated transmission measurements are made on-axis, down to a transmission value of {approx}1.7%, for eight beams between 10 MV (the lowest stable MV beam on the linac) and 30 MV, using fully stopping Be, Al, and Pb bremsstrahlung targets and no fattening filters. To diversify energy differentiation, data are acquired for each beam using low-Z and high-Z attenuators (C and Pb) and Farmer chambers with low-Z and high-Z buildup caps. Experimental corrections are applied for beam drifts (2%), polarity (2.5% typical maximum, 6% extreme), ion recombination (0.2%), leakage (0.3%), and room scatter (0.8%)-the values in parentheses are the largest corrections applied. The experimental setup and the detectors are modeled using EGSnrc, with the newly added photonuclear attenuation included (up to a 5.6% effect). A detailed sensitivity analysis is carried out for the measured and calculated transmission data. Results: The developed experimental protocol allows for transmission measurements with 0.4% uncertainty on the smallest signals. Suggestions for accurate transmission measurements are provided. Measurements and EGSnrc calculations agree typically within 0.2% for the sensitivity of the transmission values to the detector details, to the bremsstrahlung target material, and to the incident electron energy. Direct comparison of the measured and calculated transmission data shows agreement better than 2% for C (3.4% for the 10 MV beam) and typically better than 1% for Pb. The differences can be explained by acceptable photon cross section changes of Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 0.4%. Conclusions: Accurate transmission measurements require accounting for a number of influence quantities which, if ignored, can collectively introduce errors larger than 10%. Accurate transmission calculations require the use of the most accurate data and physics options available in EGSnrc, particularly the more accurate bremsstrahlung angular sampling option and the newly added modeling of photonuclear attenuation. Comparison between measurements and calculations implies that EGSnrc is accurate within 0.2% for relative ion chamber response calculations. Photon cross section uncertainties are the ultimate limiting factor for the accuracy of the calculated transmission data (Monte Carlo or analytical).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗