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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Graham, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Future of EPA's Waste Estimation Support Tool - 17227

The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) is a GIS-based decision support tool for estimating the characteristics, amount, and residual radioactivity of waste generated from remediation and cleanup activities after a radiological incident, including those involving radiological dispersal devices, improvised nuclear devices, and nuclear power plants. WEST has been released to the public and has been used in numerous national level exercises and planning scenarios; however, it continues to be improved and refined to add additional functionality and performance. Since its inception, WEST has undergone a myriad of updates, routinely ensuring compatibility with ESRI's ArcGIS and FEMA's Hazus, a tool for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, wind, and flood events. Furthermore, recent enhancements have added reporting and mapping features and multi-state support. Over time, this progress has strained WEST's Microsoft{sup C} Excel based platform. The inherent limitations of Excel have limited the capacity of WEST and narrowed the scope of potential enhancements. Recent collaborative efforts between the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Science and Technology Directorate (S and T) and EPA will see the introduction of a new software platform for easing memory limitations and new and innovative features for improving the accuracy of waste estimates. The planned enhancements include: 1) Systems approach: measure or predict the outcome of decisions associated with disaster response (e.g., decontamination efficacy vs. waste) and to a greater extent, the overall resource demand (e.g., cost, time, etc.); 2) Custom infrastructure data and international support: accommodate non-US building information where available and also add new data and information on recently used decontamination technologies as applied in a real-world incident; 3) Additional waste factors: addition of waste factors that are unique to wide area scenarios such as vehicles and trees as they will likely contribute in a significant manner to the overall waste stream;4) Site analysis and logistics: apply spatial information and analysis technologies to locate and prioritize potential waste staging or storage sites; and use GIS-based logistics planning to better organize, route, and estimate the cost, time, and logistical requirements (i.e., resource demand) associated with transporting large volumes of waste from a disaster-stricken area to waste staging or storage sites; 5) Decontamination technologies: introduce new decontamination technologies, better understand the feasibility and efficacy of new and preexisting decontamination technologies when applied to a wide area incident, and use historical incidents to ground truth waste results; and 6) Resource demand: ability to estimate resource demand information associated with decontamination technologies, waste staging and storage, and logistical information for transporting waste. This paper will describe the next version of WEST (WEST 4.0), and how the aforementioned enhancements will contribute to improving the planning and response capabilities of the tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2012

SERVIR Science Applications for Capacity Building

SERVIR is a regional visualization and monitoring system using Earth observations to support environmental management, climate adaptation, and disaster response in developing countries. SERVIR is jointly sponsored by NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). SERVIR has been instrumental in development of science applications to support the decision-making and capacity building in the developing countries with the help of SERVIR Hubs. In 2011, NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) included a call for proposals to form SERVIR Applied Sciences Team (SERVIR AST) under Applied Sciences Capacity Building Program. Eleven proposals were selected, the Principal Investigators of which comprise the core of the SERVIR AST. The expertise on the Team span several societal benefit areas including agriculture, disasters, public health and air quality, water, climate and terrestrial carbon assessments. This presentation will cover the existing SERVIR science applications, capacity building components, overview of SERVIR AST projects, and anticipated impacts.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗
DOE OSTI2015

Implementation and evaluation of a radiological field investigation for real property interests associated with the FUSRAP Maywood Site - 15611

Public streets, easements, and rights-of-way, collectively referred to as Real Property Interests (RPI), pose challenging and complex problems for the FUSRAP Maywood Project Team. RPIs are components of a multi-faceted objective to evaluate all remaining sources of contamination for which the Government is responsible under the Maywood Record of Decision. USACE designed and implemented a MARSSIM-based radiological investigation within sixteen potentially impacted RPIs. These RPIs were not completely addressed on their own or in conjunction with nearby property investigations or remediations. However, these RPIs were investigated based on the potential for or known impact of FMSS contamination as determined through both a historic data review of the transport mechanism (downstream waste deposition) and process knowledge obtained during Final Status Survey of proximal properties. The primary objectives of this investigation were to confirm the presence or absence of FUSRAP contamination within a given RPI, provide sufficient data to release an RPI if contamination was not encountered, and provide sufficient data for either design of an appropriate remedial solution or implementation of Land Use Controls when contamination was encountered. Of additional value, knowledge gained during the RPI investigations will allow the team to share useful radiological data with local officials and utility service providers. This information will support better, more informed decisions by all parties involved in situations such as emergency subsurface utility repairs, roadway improvement planning, or even natural disaster response. Finally, certain unexpected outcomes learned during the final data analysis may lead to refinement of the conceptual site model. Logistical lessons learned and challenges encountered during the Maywood investigation may also be helpful to stakeholders, planners, and managers of similar projects wishing to identify their own potential liability within public streets, easements, rights-of-way, and other types of RPIs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quick Talk: Resilient Communities, Maryland

Groundswell, Inc., in partnership with the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA), Ayika Solutions, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and the Baltimore Office of Sustainability, is advancing a vision for resilient, community-centered energy systems in Maryland. This effort aligns with Groundswell's commitment to a clean energy economy that equitably benefits all communities, closing gaps in representation, wages, and access to wealth generation, savings, and local jobs within a diverse energy supply chain. Project Vision and Objectives The project emphasizes "energy resilience," defined as a community’s capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and swiftly recover from power disruptions through inclusive planning and technical solutions. The approach centers on Resilience Hubs—designated community facilities equipped to support residents before, during, and after power-related disruptions. These hubs offer emergency resources, coordinate communications, and deliver essential services while reducing carbon emissions, ultimately enhancing residents' quality of life. Additionally, Resilience Hubs foster social connections, support disaster preparedness, and provide spaces for community programming and everyday use. The goals of Resilient Communities Maryland include: Developing a replicable framework for community energy resilience, applicable beyond Maryland. Defining community-led indicators of social impact and resilience. Establishing equitable decision-making processes in project design and implementation. Informing MEA of practical, community-based resilience strategies to shape future state initiatives. Approach Groundswell and its partners prioritize collaborative engagement with local stakeholders, ensuring that solutions are responsive to each community's unique needs. By integrating feedback from residents, local organizations, and government entities, the team has developed a holistic model for resilience that balances immediate benefits, such as improved emergency response, with long-term gains in social equity and environmental sustainability. Key Outcomes This initiative has produced valuable resources and insights, including: A Community Energy Resilience Framework: Designed to guide other communities in establishing energy resilience strategies tailored to their specific needs. Case Studies: Documenting best practices and lessons learned from pilot projects to serve as models for future resilience efforts. Community-Driven Impact Metrics: Highlighting the positive social impacts that resilience initiatives can bring, such as improved social connectedness and local decision-making power. Recommendations for MEA: Offering evidence-based insights to inform policies and funding opportunities that support resilient energy infrastructure in vulnerable communities. Next Steps Groundswell's final report will detail findings, including the potential for scaling resilience hubs across Maryland and other regions, with a focus on equitable access and community-driven outcomes. This project underscores the importance of aligning energy resilience with social equity, reinforcing community agency, and building systems that withstand and recover from future challenges effectively and sustainably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

SERVIR: From Space to Village. A Regional Monitoring and Visualization System For Environmental Management Using Satellite Applications For Sustainable Development

NASA is committed to providing technological support and expertise to regional and national organizations for earth science monitoring and analysis. This commitment is exemplified by NASA's long-term relationship with Central America. The focus of these efforts has primarily been to measure the impact of human development on the environment and to provide data for the management of human settlement and expansion in the region. Now, NASA is planning to extend and expand this capability to other regions of the world including Africa and the Caribbean. NASA began using satellite imagery over twenty-five years ago to locate important Maya archeological sites in Mesoamerica and to quantify the affect of deforestation on those sites. Continuing that mission, NASA has partnered with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop SERVIR (Sistema Regional de Visualizacion y Monitoreo), for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. SERVIR has become one of the most important aspects of NASA's geospatial efforts in Central America by establishing a common access portal for information that affects the lives, livelihood and future of everyone in the region. SERVIR, most commonly referred to as a regional visualization and monitoring system, is a scientific and technological platform that integrates satellite and other geospatial data sets to generate tools for improved decision-making capabilities. It has a collection of data and models that are easily accessible to earth science managers, first responders, NGO's (Non-Government Organizations) and a host of others. SERVIR is currently used to monitor and forecast ecological changes as well as provide information for decision support during severe events such as forest fires, red tides,and tropical storms. Additionally, SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System (GEOSS): disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, health, agriculture and energy.

Sever, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connecting Space to Village: Tethys Adoption Within SERVIR

The SERVIR program, a joint development initiative of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), works in partnership with leading regional organizations world-wide to help developing countries use information provided by Earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies for managing climate risks and land use. SERVIR empowers decision-makers with tools, products, and services to act locally on critical issues related to four key areas: Food Security and Agriculture, Water and Water-related Disasters, Land Use/Land Cover and Ecosystems, Weather and Climate. SERVIR is improving awareness, increasing access to information, and supporting analysis to help people in West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), the Lower Mekong, South America and Mesoamerica. NASA funds an Applied Sciences Team (AST), composed of experts from universities and research institutions around the United States. Through AST, SERVIR adopted the Tethys platform introduced by Brigham Young University (BYU) for the implementation of tools to deliver scientific data to stakeholders in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. Several Tethys applications developed within SERVIR have raised interest amongst decision makers in the countries served by our regional hubs. They see these new apps as key vehicles to disseminate complex information related to weather models, hydrological models, and air quality monitoring, and as such the scope of our Tethys efforts continue to expand to other regions. As of July 2019, each one of the SERVIR hubs (with the exception of Amazonia, which has only recently started), have stood up Tethys portals and have at least one individual trained in the implementation and maintenance of a Tethys portal and in the creation of basic applications. HKH, with BYU's valuable support, has implemented very sophisticated applications that showcase the possibilities and the benefits that the Tethys platform brings.

Tethys↗
NASA NTRS2023

Earth Observations into Action: Systemic Integration of Earth Observation Applications into National Risk Reduction Decision Structures

As stated in the United Nations Global Assessment Report 2022 Concept Note, decision makers everywhere need data and statistics that are accurate, timely, sufficiently disaggregated, relevant, accessible, and easy to use. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate scalable and replicable methods to advance and integrate the use of Earth observation, specifically ongoing efforts within the Group on Earth Observations Work Programme and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Work Plan, to support risk-informed decision making, based on documented national and subnational needs and requirements.

earth observations↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Closed-Loop Distribution System Restoration Tool for Natural Disaster Recovery. Final CRADA report

We propose to continue the development of the restoration algorithms and the tool’s user interface, both of which have been developed under the GMLC-0131 project. This project aims to develop a distribution restoration decision support tool that will assist utilities in performing distribution restoration after extreme weather events in an optimal and efficient manner. The tool will integrate the weather information/forecasts and system fragility assessment together with the field measurement data to improve the situational awareness and estimate the system damage status. Advanced optimization models will be leveraged to dispatch repair crews and associated resources. New resources (e.g., automatic switches and distributed generators (DGs)) enabled by distribution automation and smart grid development will be utilized to reconfigure distribution grids and pick up loads promptly to reduce the outage sizes and durations. The closed-loop feature of the tool will make the tool adaptive to the evolving weather events and varying restoration capabilities. In this CRADA, we will collaborate with S&C Electric Company (S&C) to refine ANL-1060 (07/17/2019) the restoration algorithms that can be potentially applicable for any utility systems and vendor products, including: 1) Customizable information from both utility users and vendor users; 2) User interface design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Web-based Decision Support System Tools: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Online Visualization and Analyses (SWATOnline) and NASA Earth Observation Data Downloading and Reformatting Tool (NASAaccess)

The current influx of climate related information required scientists to communicate their findings to decision makers in governments, disaster preparedness organizations, and the general public. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a powerful modelling tool that allows scientists to simulate many of the physical processes involved in the water cycle. This article presents the design, methods and development efforts to overcome some of the limitations of the previously developed SWAT visualization software programs by creating a set of modular web applications that can be duplicated, customized, and run. Moreover, this article features a web application development tool for climate data retrieval. The NASAaccess fetches, extracts and reformats climate data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration servers and outputs data compatible with hydrological models. This work has the potential to increase the SWAT's model impact on non-technically trained stakeholders and decision makers charged with water and climate management.

Tethys↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Use of NASA near Real-time and Archived Satellite Data to Support Disaster Assessment

With support from a NASA's Applied Sciences Program, The Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has explored a variety of techniques for utilizing archived and near real‐time NASA satellite data to support disaster assessment activities. MODIS data from the NASA Land Atmosphere Near Real‐time Capability for EOS currently provides true color and other imagery for assessment and potential applications including, but not limited to, flooding, fires, and tornadoes. In May 2013, the SPoRT Center developed unique power outage composites using the VIIRS Day/Night Band to represent the first clear sky view of damage inflicted upon Moore and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma following the devastating EF‐5 tornado that occurred on May 20. Pre‐event imagery provided by the NASA funded Web‐Enabled Landsat Data project offer a basis of comparison for monitoring post-disaster recovery efforts. Techniques have also been developed to generate products from higher resolution imagery from the recently available International Space Station SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System instrument. Of paramount importance is to deliver these products to end users expeditiously and in formats compatible with Decision Support Systems (DSS). Delivery techniques include a Tile Map Service (TMS) and a Web Mapping Service (WMS). These mechanisms allow easy integration of satellite products into DSS's, including the National Weather Service's Damage Assessment Toolkit for use by personnel conducting damage surveys. This poster will present an overview of the developed techniques and products and compare the strengths and weaknesses of the TMS and WMS.

McGrath, Kevin M.↗
DOE OSTI2014

T-1 Training Area

Another valuable homeland security asset at the NNSS is the T-1 training area, which covers more than 10 acres and includes more than 20 separate training venues. Local, County, and State first responders who train here encounter a variety of realistic disaster scenarios. A crashed 737 airliner lying in pieces across the desert, a helicopter and other small aircraft, trucks, buses, and derailed train cars are all part of the mock incident scene. After formal classroom education, first responders are trained to take immediate decisive action to prevent or mitigate the use of radiological or nuclear devices by terrorists. The Counterterrorism Operations Support Center for Radiological Nuclear Training conducts the courses and exercises providing first responders from across the nation with the tools they need to protect their communities. All of these elements provide a training experience that cannot be duplicated anywhere else in the country.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2010

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Elfrey, Priscilla↗
NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗