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At least 55 records · Page 3

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

Garcia, Alex M. [University of Virginia, Charlotte↗

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disentangling the Distant Stellar Halo Using K Giants in DESI Year 3 Data

We present a sample of 88,959 K giants from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Milky Way Survey Year 3 data, which we use to characterize the chemo-dynamical properties of the stellar halo at Galactocentric distances of 12 to ∼100 kpc. Using HDBSCAN, we identify five prominent stellar halo substructures: Aleph, the Sagittarius stream, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), Cetus-Palca, and the Orphan–Chenab stream. We present the properties of each of these structures as they appear in our catalog, and examine how uncertainties on distance affect the characterization of substructure with this approach. We also examine regions associated with previously reported overdensities (such as the Virgo Overdensities and the Sagittarius spur) that we do not recover with HDBSCAN. The size and distance range of our catalog allows us to explore in detail the residual stellar halo, comprising stars that we do not associate with any substructure. We find that samples of ∼2000 outer halo stars with both highly prograde and highly retrograde angular momenta have similar metallicity distribution functions (MDFs), which do not resemble the MDFs of either GSE or Sagittarius. Both the prograde and retrograde residual halo MDFs are bimodal, with a metal-poor peak at [Fe/H] ∼ −2 and a metal-rich peak at [Fe/H] ∼ −1.3 (prograde) or −1.5 (retrograde). The MDF for lower-angular-momentum residual halo K giants does not show clear evidence for a metal-poor peak, and broadly resembles the MDF of GSE, even at much lower binding energies than GSE itself. We discuss possible interpretations of these findings for GSE accretion scenarios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1024 Milky Way–mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a ΛCDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of the dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

Rose, Jonah C. [Princeton University, NJ (United S↗

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Reversible Nanocomposite by Programming Amorphous Polymer Conformation Under Nanoconfinement

Nanoconfinements are utilized to program how polymers entangle and disentangle as chain clusters to engineer pseudo bonds with tunable strength, multivalency, and directionality. When amorphous polymers are grafted to nanoparticles that are one magnitude larger in size than individual polymers, programming grafted chain conformations can "synthesize" high-performance nanocomposites with moduli of ≈25GPa and a circular lifecycle without forming and/or breaking chemical bonds. These nanocomposites dissipate external stresses by disentangling and stretching grafted polymers up to ≈98% of their contour length, analogous to that of folded proteins; use both polymers and nanoparticles for load bearing; and exhibit a non-linear dependence on composition throughout the microscopic, nanoscopic, and single-particle levels.

Chen, Tiffany↗

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Evolution of size-selected Pt cluster catalysts on prototypical oxide supports

The current quest for new pathways into sustainable, efficient and durable energy conversion technologies makes the used for a fundamental understanding of the atomic-scale phenomena underlying catalytic processes ever more pressing. In this context, characterizing catalyst particles in situ provides valuable information about the evolution of their composition, structure, oxidation state and charge state during an ongoing process. To disentangle the influence of individual parameters – temperature, pressure, gas composition, cluster size, as well as support acidity, redox state and defect density – it is crucial to control them precisely and separately in experiments. At the example of size-selected Pt n clusters – i.e. sub-nm particles defined to the exact number of atoms – on flat oxide supports, we follow their rich evolution phenomena via (synchrotron-based) X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) during temperature ramps and in various gas environments. Here, we present our experience with these highly defined, yet complicated-to-create samples in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) and at mbar pressures. We discuss their stability during transport to synchrotrons and under reaction conditions on three prototypical oxide supports and show the various phenomena that can be disentangled. Ptn clusters on the non-reducible silicon dioxide, SiO 2 , remain size-selected and show remarkable stability. Doping strongly influences the size-dependent binding energy shifts and changes the Pt response to oxidative and reaction conditions, which we attribute to different cluster geometries: p-type doping leads to wetting, enhanced sinter resistance and a diminished response to oxidative environments, compared to clusters on n-type doped samples. We compare the system with our previous findings of a similar change in dimensionality for Pt 20 clusters on the reducible ceria, CeO 2 (111), support, induced by modulation of its O vacancy density. The Pt n /CeO 2 system is particularly interesting for strategies to stabilize and redisperse Pt clusters dynamically. Finally, we study the evolution of Pt n clusters on another reducible oxide support, magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 (001), in 0.1 mbar alternating redox conditions at RT and elevated temperature. In analogy to findings previously reported for Pt/TiO 2 (110), the clusters either become encapsulated by a thin oxide film via strong metal–support interaction (SMSI) or deeply buried in the magnetite. Overall, our approach of following the evolution of size-selected clusters on oxide supports leads to fundamental atomic-scale insights on nano-scale catalyst materials, on our path to sustainable, dynamic and self-repairing catalysts.

Falling, Lorenz J. [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

Leveraging BERT and Network-Based Attention Analysis for Identifying Treatment Milestones in EHRs

This study introduces a sophisticated data-driven framework for analyzing Electronic Health Records (EHRs) using transformer-based models to identify and disentangle overlapping treatment contexts. The framework leverages a preprocessing pipeline that transforms structured procedural codes into semantically enriched descriptive text, enabling the use of attention mechanisms to cluster medical events into treatment milestones—cohesive and distinct components of care processes. The methodology is rigorously validated using synthetic datasets derived from the MIMIC-III database, designed to simulate the heterogeneity and overlapping procedural contexts characteristic of real-world EHR scenarios. Quantitative evaluation highlights the framework’s robustness in disentangling concurrent care pathways, with attention metrics and unsupervised clustering approaches demonstrating the ability to preserve intra-context relationships while distinguishing inter-context dependencies. By addressing challenges inherent in data heterogeneity, this approach provides a foundation for uncovering complex treatment patterns, advancing clinical decision-making, and optimizing resource allocation in diverse healthcare environments.

Kim, Minsu [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000224185535)↗

Deciphering competing elementary steps to correlate electrocatalyst chemical state with activity

The overpotential in multielectron transfer heterogeneous electrocatalysis fundamentally arises from thermodynamic and kinetic disparities among elementary steps; however, deciphering coupled and competing steps has long remained a challenge. Here, we establish an electrochemical deconvolution paradigm based on key processes in electrocatalytic reactions, such as charge accumulation, electron/proton transfer, and intermediate evolution, to resolve competing elementary steps. Taking the oxygen evolution reaction as a prototypical reaction, we design a model catalyst featuring a precise isolated cation-anion vacancy pair and track the previously elusive electrochemical behavior of lattice oxygen by disentangling interference from adsorbed oxygen intermediates. Mechanistically, the lattice oxygen oxidation pathway originates from the spontaneous, nonelectrochemical deprotonation of replenished water molecules coordinated to unsaturated cation sites. Alternating current techniques further reveal that although lattice oxygen oxidation requires a higher potential than metal oxidation, it exhibits faster kinetics, providing insight into its superior catalytic activity. These findings establish a direct experimental correlation between the initial chemical state and the catalytic activity and prove surface-confined lattice oxygen cycling. Furthermore, expanding conventional potential-current analysis into a multidimensional framework enables disentanglement of thermodynamic and kinetic contributions of key elementary steps, thereby guiding the rational optimization of various complex multielectron transfer reactions.

OER↗

Understanding and Tailoring Diffusion and Co-Adsorption Inside the Confined Pores of Metal-Organic Frameworks (Final Scientific/Technical Report for Award DE-SC0019902)

The aim of this program was to gain a fundamental understanding of the behavior of various guest molecules in nano-confined environments, such as metal organic frameworks (MOFs), using a combination of novel synthesis, ab initio modeling, and in situ characterization. Through this project, we developed a concise understanding of the mechanisms that control adsorption/desorption of gaseous molecules and their mixtures, leading to design/synthesis guidelines for MOFs with desired functionality. We further developed methods to disentangle kinetic from thermodynamic effects during adsorption, as well as to characterize the interactions at play. In the first funding cycle, the focus was on the unambiguously characterization of co-adsorption and diffusion of gasses/vapors and their mixtures. In the second funding cycle, the focus was on characterizing the effects of the nano-confinement on the kinetics and thermodynamics of adsorption processes inside MOFs, again with an emphasis on mixtures of gasses and vapors. The nano-confinement can tip the thermodynamic vs. kinetic balance, and current understanding and theory based on single-component analysis can lead to incorrect predictions for mixtures. This is of particular interest in real-world applications, where gasses/vapors are typically mixed, contain impurities, or are often exposed to humid conditions. Our main findings were: (i) within confined environments the adsorption behavior of mixed gasses/vapors can be drastically different from the “sum” of the corresponding single phases; (ii) co-adsorption is often competitive and detrimental to performance, but it can also be cooperative and beneficial; (iii) in some co-adsorbed gasses/vapors, molecules that are strongly bound in the single-component phase can be replaced by molecules that are nominally weaker bound (molecular exchange) due to guest-guest interactions that lower the kinetic barriers and favor the final adsorption state; (iv) kinetic and thermodynamic effects can be precisely controlled through pore-size engineering and synthesis; and, (v) kinetic effects can be identified and disentangled from thermodynamic effects during adsorption through a series of sequential and simultaneous gas loading measurements. The short-term goal of this program was the controlling and understanding of common MOF systems in real-world situations where gasses/vapors are mixed, which will have an important impact on industrial processes and applications from gas storage and sequestration to catalysis and sensors. The long-term goals include the development of theoretical and experimental methods for gaining a fundamental understanding of adsorption/reaction processes within MOFs, as well as new guidelines for synthesizing MOFs with tailored physical and chemical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗

Exploring Robust Features for Improving Adversarial Robustness

While deep neural networks (DNNs) have revolutionized many fields, their fragility to carefully designed adversarial attacks impedes the usage of DNNs in safety-critical applications. In this article, we strive to explore the robust features that are not affected by the adversarial perturbations, that is, invariant to the clean image and its adversarial examples (AEs), to improve the model’s adversarial robustness. Specifically, we propose a feature disentanglement model to segregate the robust features from nonrobust features and domain-specific features. Here, the extensive experiments on five widely used datasets with different attacks demonstrate that robust features obtained from our model improve the model’s adversarial robustness compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. Moreover, the trained domain discriminator is able to identify the domain-specific features from the clean images and AEs almost perfectly. This enables AE detection without incurring additional computational costs. With that, we can also specify different classifiers for clean images and AEs, thereby avoiding any drop in clean image accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reward Driven Workflows for Unsupervised Explainable Analysis of Phases and Ferroic Variants From Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Rapid progress in aberration corrected electron microscopy necessitates development of robust methods for the identification of phases, ferroic variants, and other pertinent aspects of materials structure from imaging data. While unsupervised methods for clustering and classification are widely used for these tasks, their performance can be sensitive to hyperparameter selection in the analysis workflow. In this study, the effects of descriptors and hyperparameters are explored on the capability of unsupervised ML methods to distill local structural information, exemplified by the discovery of polarization and lattice distortion in Sm − dopped BiFeO 3 (BFO) thin films. It is demonstrated that a reward-driven approach can be used to optimize these key hyperparameters across the full workflow, where rewards are designed to reflect domain wall continuity and straightness, ensuring that the analysis aligns with the material's physical behavior. This approach allows the discovery of local descriptors that are best aligned with the specific physical behavior, providing insight into the fundamental physics of materials. The reward driven workflow is further extended to disentangle structural factors of variation via an optimized variational autoencoder (VAE). Lastly, the importance of well-defined rewards is explored as a quantifiable measure of the success of the workflow.

Barakati, Kamyar [University of Tennessee, Knoxvil↗

Direct Imaging of Hydrogen‐Driven Dislocation and Strain Field Evolution in a Stainless Steel Grain

Hydrogen embrittlement (HE) poses a significant challenge to the durability of materials used in hydrogen production and utilization. Disentangling the competing nanoscale mechanisms driving HE often relies on simulations and electron-transparent sample techniques, limiting experimental insights into hydrogen-induced dislocation behavior in bulk materials. This study employs in situ Bragg coherent X-ray diffraction imaging to track three-dimensional (3D) dislocation and strain field evolution during hydrogen charging in a bulk grain of austenitic 316 stainless steel. Tracking a single dislocation reveals hydrogen-enhanced mobility and relaxation, consistent with dislocation dynamics simulations. Subsequent observations reveal dislocation unpinning and climb processes, likely driven by osmotic forces. Additionally, nanoscale strain analysis around the dislocation core directly measures hydrogen-induced elastic shielding. These findings experimentally validate theoretical predictions and offer mechanistic insights into hydrogen-driven dislocation behavior. The quantified nanoscale phenomena serve as critical inputs for multiscale modeling frameworks to predict bulk material responses and accelerate the development of HE-resistant alloys.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Ultrafast Terahertz Field Control of the Emergent Magnetic and Electronic Interactions at Oxide Interfaces

Ultrafast electric-field control of emergent electronic and magnetic states at oxide interfaces offers exciting prospects for the development of the next generation of energy-efficient devices. Here, it is demonstrated that the electronic structure and emergent ferromagnetic interfacial state in epitaxial LaNiO3/CaMnO3 superlattices can be effectively controlled using intense, single-cycle THz electric-field pulses. A suite of advanced X-ray spectroscopic techniques is employed to measure a detailed magneto-optical profile and the thickness of the ferromagnetic interfacial layer. Then, a combination of time-resolved and temperature-dependent optical measurements is used to disentangle several correlated electronic and magnetic processes driven by ultrafast, high-field THz pulses. Sub-picosecond non-equilibrium Joule heating of the electronic system is observed, ultrafast demagnetization of the ferromagnetic interfacial layer, and slower dynamics indicative of a change in the magnetic state of the superlattice due to the transfer of spin-angular momentum to the lattice. These findings suggest a promising avenue for the efficient control of 2D ferromagnetic states at oxide interfaces using ultrafast electric-field pulses.

X-ray spectroscopy and scattering↗

Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development With the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A Case Study Over the Southern Great Plains

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluating a non‐precipitating, shallow cumulus case at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in the UFS global forecast against the observation, the investigation identifies a warmer and deeper daytime convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) and misrepresented nocturnal PBL transition. Hypothesis testing, which employs the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) single‐column model (SCM) and uses the same physics as the UFS global model, confirms that these issues are attributed to the model physics and initialization. Specifically, misrepresented PBL processes are linked to problematic surface condition and a lack of cloud formation, which may stem from deficiencies in PBL and cloud microphysics parameterizations and their interactions. The UFS initial condition contributes to an earlier, excessively collapsed daytime convective boundary layer and a lack of decoupling between the stable boundary layer and residual layer late in the afternoon. This work introduces an avenue for the community to engage with the application of HSD, along with the CCPP and CCPP SCM, to understand the interplay of model physics, disentangle the roles of model components, as well as facilitate model and forecast improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗