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NASA NTRS2000

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗

NASA NTRS2022

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2024

Severe droughts reduce river navigability and isolate communities in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon basin is experiencing severe droughts that are expected to worsen with climate change. Riverine communities are especially vulnerable to these extreme events. This study investigates the experiences of Brazilian Amazonian communities during droughts occurring from 2000-2020. We assess the distribution of settlements at risk of prolonged isolation during extreme low-water periods, along with impacts reported in digital news outlets. Using historic time series of river levels from 90 gauges, we look at how long droughts lasted in regions with reported impacts. Results indicate that the droughts in 2005, 2010, and 2016 were the most severe, with over an additional month of low water levels in those years. Such drought events routinely disrupt inland water transport and isolate local populations, limiting access to essential goods (food, fuel, medicine) and basic services (healthcare, education). Given this new reality, Amazon countries must develop long-term strategies for mitigation, adaptation, and disaster response.

Geography↗

NASA NTRS2016

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

NASA NTRS2023

Drought and Deluge: the Recurrence of Hydroclimate Extremes During the Past 600 Years in Eastern Australia’s Natural Resource Management (NRM) Clusters

Recent extremes of flood and drought across Australia have raised questions about the recurrence of such rare events and highlighted the importance of understanding multi-decadal climate variability. However, instrumental records over the past century are too short to adequately characterise climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales or robustly determine extreme event frequencies and their duration. Palaeoclimate reconstructions can provide much-needed information to help address this problem. Here, we use the 600-year hydroclimate record captured in the eastern Australian and New Zealand Drought Atlas (ANZDA) to analyse drought and pluvial frequency trends for East Australian Natural Resource Management (NRM) clusters. This partitioning of the drought atlas grid points into recognised biophysical areas (i.e. NRM clusters) revealed their differences and similarities in drought intensity and pluvial events over time. We find sustained multi-decadal periods of a wet–dry geographic 'seesaw' between eastern to central and southern NRMs (e.g. 1550–1600 CE and 1700–1750 CE). In contrast, other periods reveal spatially consistent wetting (e.g. 1500–1550 CE) or drying (e.g. 1750–1800 CE). Emerging hot spot analysis further shows that some areas that appear naturally buffered from severe drought during the instrumental period have a greater exposure risk when the longer 600-year record is considered. These findings are particularly relevant to management plans when dealing with the impacts of climate extremes developed at regional scales. Our results demonstrate that integrating and extending instrumental records with palaeoclimate datasets will become increasingly important for developing robust and locally specific extreme event frequency information for managing water resources.

Australian hydroclimate↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC3) chapter builds on the projections developed by the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) (Horton et al., 2015). It confirms NPCC2 projections as those of record for the City of New York, presents new methodology related to climate extremes, and describes new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. These may be used by the City of New York as it continues to develop flexible adaptation pathways to cope with climate change. The main topics of the climate science chapter are: (1) Comparison of observed temperature and precipitation trends to NPCC2 2015 projections. (2) New methodology for analysis of historical and future projections of heatwaves, humidity, and cold snaps. (3) Improved characterization of observed heavy downpours. (4) Characterization of observed drought using paleoclimate data. (5) Suggested methods for next generation climate risk information.

Gonzalez, Jorge E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called ''dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Conifer Mortality↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called "dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Viacheslav I Kharuk↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting the Convergence of Evidence in Satellite Data for Advanced Weather Index Insurance Design

The goal of drought-related weather index insurance (WII) is to protect smallholder farmers against the risk of weather shocks and to increase their agricultural productivity. Estimates of precipitation and vegetation greenness are the two dominant satellite datasets. However, ignoring additional moisture- and energy-related processes that influence the response of vegetation to rainfall leads to an incomplete representation of the hydrologic cycle. This study evaluates the added value of considering multiple independent satellite-based variables to design, calibrate, and validate weather insurance indices on the African continent. The satellite data include two rainfall datasets, soil moisture, the evaporative stress index (ESI), and vegetation greenness. We limit artificial advantages by resampling all datasets to the same spatial (0.25°) and temporal (monthly) resolution, although datasets with a higher spatial resolution might have an added value, if considered as the single source of information for localized applications. A higher correlation coefficient between the moisture-focused variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indicator for vegetation vigor, provides evidence for the datasets’ capability to capture agricultural drought conditions on the ground. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset, soil moisture, and ESI show higher correlations with the (lagged) NDVI in large parts of Africa, for different land covers and various climate zones, than the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), rainfall dataset, which is often used in WII. A comparison to drought years as reported by farmers in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia indicates a high “hit rate” of all satellite-derived anomalies regarding the detection of severe droughts but limitations regarding moderate drought events.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

hydrometeorological↗

NASA NTRS2018

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Bolten, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

Stefanov, William L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Set of Indicators to Identify, Monitor, and Track Impacts and Change in Forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment(NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

U.S. forests↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Applications Activity

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first-tier satellite missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space. The SMAP mission 1 is under development by NASA and is scheduled for launch late in 2014. The SMAP measurements will allow global and high-resolution mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state at resolutions from 3-40 km. These measurements will have high value for a wide range of environmental applications that underpin many weather-related decisions including drought and flood guidance, agricultural productivity estimation, weather forecasting, climate predictions, and human health risk. In 2007, NASA was tasked by The National Academies to ensure that emerging scientific knowledge is actively applied to obtain societal benefits by broadening community participation and improving means for use of information. SMAP is one of the first missions to come out of this new charge, and its Applications Plan forms the basis for ensuring its commitment to its users. The purpose of this paper is to outline the methods and approaches of the SMAP applications activity, which is designed to increase and sustain the interaction between users and scientists involved in mission development.

Brown, Molly E.↗