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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Climate and Catchment Control on Hydrological Drought in the Continental United States

The evolution of hydrological drought events is a result of complex (nonlinear) interactions between climate and catchment processes. To investigate such nonlinear relationship, we integrated a machine learning modeling framework based on the random forest (RF) algorithms with an interpretation framework to quantify the role of climate and catchment controls on hydrological drought. More particularly, our framework interprets a built RF machine-learning model to identify dominant variables and visualize their functional dependence and interaction effects on hydrological drought characteristics utilizing concepts of minimal depth, interactive depth, and partial dependence. We test our proposed modeling framework based on a set of 652 continental United States catchments with minimal human interference for a period of 1979–2010. Application of this framework indicated presence of three distinct drought regimes, which includes, Regime 1: droughts with longer duration, less frequent and lesser intensity; Regime 2: droughts with moderate duration, moderate frequency, and moderate intensity; and Regime 3: droughts with shorter duration, more frequent, and more intense. RF algorithm was able to accurately model the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and number of events) for all the three drought regimes as a function of selected variables. It was observed that the type of dominant variables as well as their nonlinear functional relationship with hydrological droughts characteristics can vary between three selected regimes. Finally, our interpretation framework indicated that catchment characteristics have a significant role in controlling the hydrologic drought for catchments (regime 1), whereas both climate and catchment characteristics control hydrological drought in regimes 2 and 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing IHE Response to Multiple Shock Loading

The response of high explosives to shock loading is traditionally measured with a steady loading pressure. In many accident scenarios involving fragment impact, however, a loading duration that is shorter than the build up to detonation may occur. Fragments passing through multiple materials before reaching a high explosive charge may produce loading that is comprised of more than one shock wave. Additionally, the build up to detonation in high explosive corner turning loads the explosive a short duration pressure pulse, since rarefactions can often rapidly overtake the reactive wave. For these reasons, we have studied the response of the insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials PBX 9502 and LX-17 to complex loadings of varied intensity and duration. We refer to a single loading of limited duration as a “thin pulse”, whereas more complex scenarios were studied with an impactor that produces a double shock in the explosive. The following report presents experimental data and analyses of thin pulse shock initiation and double shock experiments designed to guide development of models of Insensitive High Explosives (IHEs) under controlled one-dimensional conditions relevant to accident scenarios and corner turning. Thin pulse shock initiation data on PBX 9502 and LX-17 were obtained under varied pulse duration, pressed density, and temperature conditions in order to probe various parameters essential for the development of a physics-based Cheetah reactive flow hotspot model. In situ pressure gauges provide insight into the degree of reaction in the explosive that are not obtainable with optical PDV measurements or distance measurements such as run to detonation. Double shock data was obtained to inform a Composition Aware Cheetah model which can be applied to any TATB-based IHEs. This model supports efforts to find a new IHE formulation and potentially incorporate new binders into IHE formulations. Simulations of each experiment are included to demonstrate the utility of these focused experiments to developing models of HE behavior. One-dimensional gas gun experiments are essential for characterizing shocked HE behavior and informing HE models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying heat extremes in China attributed to rising greenhouse gases and declining aerosols since the 2010s

Rising temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events over China in recent decades. The upward trends in heat extremes in China in the warm season (May–September) and their relationships with changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model results. Significant increasing trends in China are observed in daily maximum temperatures (TXx), heatwave frequency, and heatwave mean duration during 2011–2023, with increasing rates of 0.70 °C/decade, 3.77 d/decade and 0.31 d/event/decade, respectively. This study shows that 43 ± 3% of the TXx increases in China are attributed to the rising CO2 concentrations. Aerosol optical depth in China decreased at a rate of 0.054 per decade from 2011 to 2023 due to significant air quality improvements. The weakened aerosol cooling effect due to declining aerosols contributes 27 ± 3% to the observed TXx trend. In eastern China, where aerosol reductions were most significant, aerosol reduction even accounts for 79 ± 10% of the TXx increasing trend. The intensifying heat waves attributed to GHGs and aerosols are in accordance with the increasing extreme high temperatures. The results highlight the significant impacts of rising GHGs and decreasing aerosols on heat extreme events over China in recent years, emphasizing the need of considering both GHGs and aerosols to address the issue of intensification of heat extremes in a warming future.

Zou, Aili↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Static and dynamic modeling of steam integration for a NuScale small modular reactor and pulp and paper mill coupling for carbon-neutral manufacturing

Small modular reactors (SMRs) are reactor designs producing less than 300 MWe and are generally planned for deployment as multimodule nuclear power plants. The possibility of factory-manufactured, flexibly sized plants expands the opportunities for nuclear power to different communities and industries, including manufacturing plants that currently utilize fossil fuels to produce both steam and electricity. This paper examines the feasibility of coupling a NuScale SMR with a midsize pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern United States. A steady-state mill model was developed in Aspen HYSYS, based on real data from the operation of the mill, and modified it to include the SMR while maintaining steam quality requirements and making as few changes as possible to existing equipment. Dynamic plant models were also developed Dymola to demonstrate possible plant conditions, using three configurations. Preliminary results suggest that, while SMR coupling is physically feasible, its economic feasibility is limited by the differences in steam and electricity demands. Because of limitations in the amount of steam the mill can take from the SMR, sizing the SMR for the plant’s steam demand may result in an electricity deficit, or vice versa. Furthermore, dynamic analyses show that the addition of a thermal storage system could reduce such deficits, but this entails its own challenges. Each plant must determine the best configuration and control scheme for itself, based on its electricity and heat needs, including the peak duration and intensity for both. Ultimately, an implementation of SMRs with manufacturing processes would benefit from partnering with a local utility to purchase excess electricity generated by the SMR. This will help manufacturing facilities meet their environmental and cost-savings goals, in addition to meeting the need for cost-effective baseload power across the United States.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An engineered lactate oxidase based electrochemical sensor for continuous detection of biomarker lactic acid in human sweat and serum

Lactate levels in humans reveal intensity and duration of exertion and provide a critical readout for the severity of life-threatening illnesses such as pediatric sepsis. Using the lactate oxidase enzyme (Lox) from Aerococcus viridians, we demonstrated its functionality for lactate electrochemical sensing in physiological fluids in a lab setting. The structure and dynamics of LOx were validated by crystallography, X-ray scattering, and hydroxyl radical protein footprinting. This provided a validated protein template for understanding and designing an enzyme-based electrochemical sensing elements. Using this template, LOx enzyme variants were generated and compared. Comparison of the variants demonstrates that one exhibits effective lactate sensing at significantly reduced operating voltages. Additionally, we demonstrate that the four hexahistidine-tags on each enzyme tetramer are sufficient for immobilization to create a durable, functional sensor, with no need for a covalent attachment, enabling self-immobilization and eliminating the need for additional immobilization steps. The functionality of the LOx enzyme variants was verified at physiological lactate concentrations in both human serum (0–4 mM) and artificial sweat (0–100 mM) using 3-electrode setups for analysis of the three variants in parallel. Accuracy of measurement in both artificial sweat and human serum were high. Employing a microfluidic flow cell, we successfully monitored varying lactate levels in physiological fluids continuously over a 2h period. Overall, this optimized LOx enzyme, which self-immobilizes onto gold sensing electrodes, facilitates efficient and reliable lactate detection and continuous monitoring at reduced operating voltages suitable for further development towards commercial use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct processing of PbZr 0.53 Ti 0.47 O 3 films on glass and polymeric substrates

This work reports on direct crystallization of PbZr 0.53 Ti 0.47 O 3 (PZT) thin films on glass and polymeric substrates, using pulsed thermal processing (PTP). Specifically, xenon flash lamps deliver pulses of high intensity, short duration, broadband light to the surface of a chemical solution deposited thin film, resulting in the crystallization of the film. Structural analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy show the existence of perovskite structure in nano-sized grains (≤5 nm). Local functional analysis by band excitation piezoelectric spectroscopy and electrostatic force microscopy confirm the presence of a ferroelectric phase and retention of voltage-written polarization for multiple days. Based on structural and functional analyses, strategies are discussed for optimization of pulse voltage and duration for the realization of crystalline ferroelectric thin films. For ~200 nm-thick PZT films on glass substrates, 500 μs-long pulses were required for crystallization, starting with 100 pulses at 350 V, 10 or 25 pulses at 400 V and in general lower number of pulses at higher voltages (resulting in higher radiant energy). Overall power densities of >6.4 kW/cm 2 were needed for appearance of peaks corresponding to the perovskite phase in the XRD. Films on glass processed at 350–400 V had a higher degree of 111-oriented perovskite grains. Higher applied radiant energy (through increased pulse voltage or count) resulted in more random and/or partially 001-oriented films. For ~1 μm-thick PZT films on polymeric substrates, 10 to 25 250 μs-long pulses at voltages ranging between 200 to 250 V, corresponding to power densities of ~2.8 kW/cm 2 , were optimal for maximized perovskite phase crystallization, while avoiding substrate damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Manganese Oxidation during Vegetation Burning

Redox recycling of manganese (Mn) plays a key role in organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling in terrestrial vegetated ecosystems, and it is expected to be changed by fires. This study revealed how Mn is oxidized during vegetation burning, by characterizing the chemical speciation of Mn in fire ash from wildland fires and laboratory burning and evaluating the factors governing its average oxidation state (AOS) and speciation. Manganese in wildland fire ash from different ecosystems showed variable AOS that ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Laboratory burning experiments showed that Mn oxidation was primarily controlled by fire thermal intensity (temperature × duration) and burning completeness. As heating time increased from 5 min to 5 h at 550 and 700 °C, Mn AOS in the lab-burned vegetation ash increased from 2.7 to 4.0 and the oxidation rate was faster at higher temperature. Diverse Mn species can present in wildland fire ash and differ structurally from biogenic Mn oxides. The oxidized Mn species enable fire ash to mediate oxidative degradation of catechol, demonstrating its potential in mediating organic matter decomposition. This study revealed a new paradigm of Mn redox recycling, as compared to the microbe-mediated Mn redox cycling in the absence of fires.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An In Situ , Automated High-Explosives Aging Method Utilizing Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

Understanding chemical changes that occur in high explosives as they age is of great importance to the safe employment and storage of these compounds. Traditional methods of aging high explosives even under accelerated aging conditions are time intensive with durations on the order of months to years. The nature of traditional aging analyses reduces each sample to a snapshot data point often separated widely in time, requiring many assumptions as to how the degradation products develop. Further complicating matters, several analytical techniques are typically employed for each sample analysis in order to ascertain an entire picture of the decomposition pathways. To address these shortcomings with existing methods, a new method of accelerated aging of high explosives utilizing comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (GC × GC-HRMS) was developed using 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) as a model compound for method development. This in situ automated method reduces the time scale of aging to a matter of hours using the inlet of the GC × GC as the aging vessel. GC × GC in combination with HRMS allowed for the collection of both evolved gases and other decomposition products produced during the entire aging process in real time with HRMS providing far greater certainty in identification of explosives aging products. Additionally, this method allowed for a higher throughput of samples with greatly simplified sample preparation. Chemometric analysis of the GC × GC-HRMS data set via the alteration analysis (ALA) enabled discovery of statistically significant chemical changes providing insight into the variation of decomposition pathways with varying aging temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting Recent U.S. Heat Waves in a Warmer and More Humid Climate

The frequency and intensity of heat waves in the United States is projected to increase in the 21st century. We investigate dry and humid heat waves in a pair of high-resolution model simulations that constrain large-scale atmospheric circulation, to isolate the thermodynamic impacts on characteristics of present and future heat waves over the United States. The two kinds of heat waves show differences in mean intensity, amplitude, duration, and frequency over the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest, while their characteristics are largely similar in the drier central and western United States. In a warmer climate, relative humidity is projected to decrease during dry heat waves, whereas it remains unchanged during humid heat waves. However, the overall increase in daily maximum temperature intensifies the heat stress during future humid and dry heat waves across all regions. With large-scale circulation constrained, these simulations emphasize the importance of thermodynamic drivers in determining future heat wave characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wildfire‐Smoke Aerosols Lead to Increased Light Use Efficiency Among Agricultural and Restored Wetland Land Uses in California's Central Valley

Abstract There are few observational studies measuring the ecosystem‐scale productivity effects of changes in incident diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR diffuse ), especially related to wildfire smoke. Climate change‐induced increases to the duration and intensity of fire conditions have made smoke a common occurrence across western North America, with largely unquantified ecosystem feedbacks. Under equivalent amounts of radiation, increased atmospheric particulate matter could lead to a boost in productivity as scattering redistributes photons throughout multilayer canopies. In this work, we leverage a meso‐network of eddy covariance measurement sites across a unique array of managed and restored C 3 and C 4 canopy types to understand how recent wildfire smoke affected ecosystem productivity during the summer of 2018, an especially smoky year in the agriculturally productive Central Valley. We find that diffuse PAR diffuse increased by more than a third compared to the previous growing season, while total PAR was only slightly diminished. These conditions caused nearly a doubling of light use efficiency over the range of diffuse fraction observed, with the highest sensitivity to diffuse fraction exhibited by corn and alfalfa crops. We utilized an empirical model to assess the trade‐off between enhanced diffuse fraction and reduced total PAR. Under mean radiation conditions, daily integrated gross ecosystem productivity increased by 1.2–4.2% compared to the previous growing season. Finally, we explore the potential negative effect of heightened ozone, a copollutant often associated with wildfire. In addition to the effects of wildfire smoke, the results of this natural experiment can help validate future predictions of aerosol‐productivity feedbacks.

Hemes, Kyle S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensified Humid Heat Events Under Global Warming

Based on the CMIP5 multi-model simulations, this paper investigates the future changes in extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) and extreme dry-bulb temperatures (Ts) globally under both low and high emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under a warming climate, T and TW exhibit a higher absolute increase in their mean values over the mid-high latitudes while they show higher relative increases in their mean values and variability over tropics. Here, humid and dry heat events which consist of consecutive extreme TWs and Ts show higher occurrences over tropics, governed by the joint increases in mean values and variability of TW and T therein. Humid heat events show intensifications to dry heat events with higher frequency, duration, and intensity, driven by the lower variability of TW than T. In the mid-high latitudes, heat events will start earlier and last longer in warm season under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, motivating the need for global warming mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inner Belt Electron Decay Timescales: A Comparison of Van Allen Probes and DREAM3D Losses Following the June 2015 Storm

Abstract NASA's Van Allen Probes observed significant, long‐lived fluxes of inner belt electrons up to ∼1 MeV after geomagnetic storms in March and June 2015. Reanalysis of Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) data with improved background correction showed a clearer picture of the relativistic electron population that persisted through 2016 and into 2017 above the Fennell et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062874 ) limit. The intensity and duration of these enhancements allow estimation of decay timescales for comparison with simulated decay rates and theoretical lifetimes. We compare decay timescales from these data and DREAM3D simulations based on them using geomagnetic activity‐dependent pitch angle diffusion coefficients derived from plasmapause‐indexed wave data (Malaspina et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069982 , 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078564 ) and phase space densities derived from MagEIS observations. Simulated decay rates match observed decay rates more closely than the theoretical lifetime due to significantly nonequilibrium pitch angle distributions in simulation and data. We conclude that nonequilibrium effects, rather than a missing diffusion or loss process, account for observed short decay rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers

Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO 2 , while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing University of Information S↗