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At least 55 records · Page 3

Design and Evaluation of a Dynamic Programming Flight Routing Algorithm Using the Convective Weather Avoidance Model

The optimization of traffic flows in congested airspace with varying convective weather is a challenging problem. One approach is to generate shortest routes between origins and destinations while meeting airspace capacity constraint in the presence of uncertainties, such as weather and airspace demand. This study focuses on development of an optimal flight path search algorithm that optimizes national airspace system throughput and efficiency in the presence of uncertainties. The algorithm is based on dynamic programming and utilizes the predicted probability that an aircraft will deviate around convective weather. It is shown that the running time of the algorithm increases linearly with the total number of links between all stages. The optimal routes minimize a combination of fuel cost and expected cost of route deviation due to convective weather. They are considered as alternatives to the set of coded departure routes which are predefined by FAA to reroute pre-departure flights around weather or air traffic constraints. A formula, which calculates predicted probability of deviation from a given flight path, is also derived. The predicted probability of deviation is calculated for all path candidates. Routes with the best probability are selected as optimal. The predicted probability of deviation serves as a computable measure of reliability in pre-departure rerouting. The algorithm can also be extended to automatically adjust its design parameters to satisfy the desired level of reliability.

Ng, Hok K.↗

Dynamic Routing of Aircraft in the Presence of Adverse Weather Using a POMDP Framework

Each year weather-related airline delays result in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional fuel burn, maintenance, and lost revenue, not to mention passenger inconvenience. The current approaches for aircraft route planning in the presence of adverse weather still mainly rely on deterministic methods. In contrast, this work aims to deal with the problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) framework, which allows for reasoning over uncertainty (including uncertainty in weather evolution over time) and results in solutions that are more robust to disruptions. The POMDP-based decision support system is demonstrated on several scenarios involving convective weather cells and is benchmarked against a deterministic planning system with functionality similar to those currently in use or under development.

Decision making↗

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James↗

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM) Safely Enabling UAS Operations in Low-Altitude Airspace

Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) Enabling Civilian Low-Altitude Airspace and Unmanned Aircraft System Operations What is the problem? Many beneficial civilian applications of UAS have been proposed, from goods delivery and infrastructure surveillance, to search and rescue, and agricultural monitoring. Currently, there is no established infrastructure to enable and safely manage the widespread use of low-altitude airspace and UAS operations, regardless of the type of UAS. A UAS traffic management (UTM) system for low-altitude airspace may be needed, perhaps leveraging concepts from the system of roads, lanes, stop signs, rules and lights that govern vehicles on the ground today, whether the vehicles are driven by humans or are automated. What system technologies is NASA exploring? Building on its legacy of work in air traffic management for crewed aircraft, NASA is researching prototype technologies for a UAS Traffic Management (UTM) system that could develop airspace integration requirements for enabling safe, efficient low-altitude operations. While incorporating lessons learned from the today's well-established air traffic management system, which was a response that grew out of a mid-air collision over the Grand Canyon in the early days of commercial aviation, the UTM system would enable safe and efficient low-altitude airspace operations by providing services such as airspace design, corridors, dynamic geofencing, severe weather and wind avoidance, congestion management, terrain avoidance, route planning and re-routing, separation management, sequencing and spacing, and contingency management. One of the attributes of the UTM system is that it would not require human operators to monitor every vehicle continuously. The system could provide to human managers the data to make strategic decisions related to initiation, continuation, and termination of airspace operations. This approach would ensure that only authenticated UAS could operate in the airspace. In its most mature form, the UTM system could be developed using autonomicity characteristics that include self-configuration, self-optimization and self-protection. The self-configuration aspect could determine whether the operations should continue given the current andor predicted windweather conditions. NASA envisions concepts for two types of possible UTM systems. The first type would be a Portable UTM system, which would move from between geographical areas and support operations such as precision agriculture and disaster relief. The second type of system would be a Persistent UTM system, which would support low-altitude operations and provide continuous coverage for a geographical area. Either system would require persistent communication, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) coverage to track, ensure, and monitor conformance. What is NASA doing to test the technologies? NASA's near-term goal is the development and demonstration of a possible future UTM system that could safely enable low-altitude airspace and UAS operations. Working alongside many committed government, industry and academic partners, NASA is leading the research, development and testing that is taking place in a series of activities called Technology Capability Levels (TCL), each increasing in complexity. UTM TCL1 concluded field testing in August 2015 and is undergoing additional testing at an FAA site.

UTM Low-altitude↗

Unmanned Aerial Systems Traffic Management (UTM): Safely Enabling UAS Operations in Low-Altitude Airspace

Currently, there is no established infrastructure to enable and safely manage the widespread use of low-altitude airspace and UAS flight operations. Given this, and understanding that the FAA faces a mandate to modernize the present air traffic management system through computer automation and significantly reduce the number of air traffic controllers by FY 2020, the FAA maintains that a comprehensive, yet fully automated UAS traffic management (UTM) system for low-altitude airspace is needed. The concept of UTM is to begin by leveraging concepts from the system of roads, lanes, stop signs, rules and lights that govern vehicles on the ground today. Building on its legacy of work in air traffic management (ATM), NASA is working with industry to develop prototype technologies for a UAS Traffic Management (UTM) system that would evolve airspace integration procedures for enabling safe, efficient low-altitude flight operations that autonomously manage UAS operating in an approved low-altitude airspace environment. UTM is a cloud-based system that will autonomously manage all traffic at low altitudes to include UASs being operated beyond visual line of sight of an operator. UTM would thus enable safe and efficient flight operations by providing fully integrated traffic management services such as airspace design, corridors, dynamic geofencing, severe weather and wind avoidance, congestion management, terrain avoidance, route planning re-routing, separation management, sequencing spacing, and contingency management. UTM removes the need for human operators to continuously monitor aircraft operating in approved areas. NASA envisions concepts for two types of UTM systems. The first would be a small portable system, which could be moved between geographical areas in support of operations such as precision agriculture and public safety. The second would be a Persistent system, which would support low-altitude operations in an approved area by providing continuous automated coverage. Both would require persistent communication, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) coverage to track, ensure, and monitor conformance. UTM is creating an airspace management tool that allows the ATM system to accommodate the number of UAS that will operate in the low altitude airspace. The analogy is just because we have a car, whether its autonomous or someone is driving, does not diminish the need for a road or road signs or rules of the road.

traffic management↗

Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Dynamic Multi-Flight Common Route Advisories

Flights often experience large delays when they are routed around weather. Multi-flight common route advisories provide delay recovery by suggesting time-saving re-routes for groups of flights whose current weather-avoidance routes have become outdated because the weather has dissipated and/or moved away. A laboratory evaluation of these advisories was conducted by four subject matter experts having extensive experience in traffic flow management operations. These experts provided a total of 120 data points in the airspace of Houston Center. The multi-flight common route tool provides time-saving route change advisories taking into account flight plans, wind fields, and the spatio-temporal evolution of predicted convective weather. It is not designed to account for complex operational factors such as non-standard sector traversal and interactions with local traffic management initiatives; hence a relatively low percentage (37%) of advisories generated by the tool were rated as acceptable. However, a high percentage (81%) of advisories were rated as acceptable after the subject matter experts used the tool's user interface to make route modifications that accounted for relevant operational factors not considered by the tool. The workload associated with using the tool, as measured by the NASA Task Load Index, was quite low (1.1 on a scale of 0 to 10). The results of this evaluation make a good case for human-automation teaming to design operationally valid weather re-routes for delay recovery.

Traffic Flow Management↗

Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Dynamic Multi-Flight Common Route Advisories

Flights often experience large delays when they are routed around weather. Multi-flight common route advisories provide delay recovery by suggesting time-saving re-routes for groups of flights whose current weather-avoidance routes have become outdated because the weather has dissipated and/or moved away. A laboratory evaluation of these advisories was conducted by four subject matter experts having extensive experience in traffic flow management operations. These experts provided a total of 120 data points in the airspace of Houston Center. The multi-flight common route tool provides time-saving route change advisories taking into account flight plans, wind fields, and the spatio-temporal evolution of predicted convective weather. It is not designed to account for complex operational factors such as non-standard sector traversal and interactions with local traffic management initiatives; hence a relatively low percentage (37%) of advisories generated by the tool were rated as acceptable. However, a high percentage (81%) of advisories were rated as acceptable after the subject matter experts used the tool's user interface to make route modifications that accounted for relevant operational factors not considered by the tool. The workload associated with using the tool, as measured by the NASA Task Load Index, was quite low (1.1 on a scale of 0 to 10). The results of this evaluation make a good case for human-automation teaming to design operationally valid weather re-routes for delay recovery.

Traffic Flow Management↗

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Effective flight planning requires information about a variety of potential threats, such as adverse weather or airspace restrictions, and about alternatives available if unforeseen events occur. Expected traffic along the route of flight is also essential to a safe outcome so that, for example, adequate fuel/energy supply can be loaded prior to flight. A dynamic density (DD) metric is introduced for the emerging urban air mobility (UAM) concept to predict airspace congestion that may lead to loss of separation between aircraft or less efficient operations. Using inspiration from dynamic density metric research for traditional air traffic management and a two-way highway analogy, we develop a dynamic density metric for a portion of airspace (aUAM corridor) that aggregates the impact from five factors: aircraft density, density of populous clusters, mean number of aircraft in populous clusters, mean distance between aircraft, and minimum distance between aircraft. This works describes our methodology, rationale, use cases, and visualization techniques to efficiently present the DD metric to an operator for informed decision making. We also present an approach for validating the metric. However, validation remains part of future work.

UAM↗

Analysis of Impacts of Terminal Restrictions on Departures in D10 TRACON

The D10 – Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol (TRACON) is an air traffic facility that controls and manages aircraft and airspace that consists of multiple airports located in the North Texas area. From an air traffic management standpoint, one of the main challenges in the D10 TRACON is the departure fix capacity as multiple airports compete for resources. This problem is magnified when en route demand/capacity imbalance and inclement weather around the TRACON reduce the capacity at the terminal fixes. This leads to multiple, dynamic Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) restrictions being issued by the Air Traffic Control (ATC) on departing flights. This, in turn, propagates delay to the surface of each airport within the metroplex. The NASA Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 3 is deployed in D10 to demonstrate new technologies developed to manage the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic in a metroplex environment where multiple airports are interacting and sharing resources at the terminal boundary. This paper uses the ATD-2 terminal restriction data collected in the D10 TRACON to quantify the impact of restrictions on the demand, analyze the relation between terminal restrictions and departure taxi time on airport surface, and establish relationships between restrictions and surface delay. We found that the restrictions on departure flights have a direct adverse effect on departure excess taxi time on the airport surface.

ATD-2↗

Analysis of Impacts of Terminal Restrictions on Departures in D10 TRACON

The D10 – Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol (TRACON) is an air traffic facility that controls and manages aircraft and airspace that consists of multiple airports located in the North Texas area. From an air traffic management standpoint, one of the main challenges in the D10 TRACON is the departure fix capacity as multiple airports compete for resources. This problem is magnified when en route demand/capacity imbalance and inclement weather around the TRACON reduce the capacity at the terminal fixes. This leads to multiple, dynamic Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) restrictions being issued by the Air Traffic Control (ATC) on departing flights. This, in turn, propagates delay to the surface of each airport within the metroplex. The NASA Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 3 is deployed in D10 to demonstrate new technologies developed to manage the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic in a metroplex environment where multiple airports are interacting and sharing resources at the terminal boundary. This paper uses the ATD-2 terminal restriction data collected in the D10 TRACON to quantify the impact of restrictions on the demand, analyze the relation between terminal restrictions and departure taxi time on airport surface, and establish relationships between restrictions and surface delay. We found that the restrictions on departure flights have a direct adverse effect on departure excess taxi time on the airport surface.

ATD-2↗

Air Traffic Control Response to Delays: A System Study of Newark International Airport

Airport delays are a significant problem in the United States air transportation system. Between 1999 and 2000 the number of flights delayed increased by 20 percent despite only a 0.4% increase in total operations. Newark International Airport (EWR), one of New York City's primary airports, is one of the airports in the United States most impacted by delays. Newark had the highest percentage of operations delayed in 1999, and was second only to LaGuardia Airport in 2000. Nearly 85% of delays at Newark are caused by adverse weather impacting an airport that may be characterized as having limited capacity and a very full schedule. Although Newark is heavily impacted by weather, delays have not increased significantly since 1998. This indicates that the airlines, air traffic control (ATC), and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey have successfully adapted. On June 29, 2000, a research team from MIT visited Newark airport to assess the effectiveness of any adaptations made, and to collect data on airline and ATC departure operations, and of the national and local weather affecting the airport. Airline and ATC personnel were also interviewed. Results of this study indicate that airspace capacity limitations downstream of the airport are a primary flow constraint at the airport, and that these constraints are the source of most surface delays. A number of tactical ATC responses to delays were examined, including the application of restrictions, re-routing with the help of the National Playbook, and the use of decision-aiding tools such as the Dynamic Spacing Program (DSP) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Improved interfacility communications and further utilization of runway 11-29 were identified as other tactical responses to delays, whilst the formation of the Air Traffic Control System Command Center and the New York Airspace redesign were identified as thekey strategic ATC responses to delays. Particularly the New York airspace redesign has great potential to reduce delays at the airport. Because delays at Newark are caused by downstream flow constraints, the responses at the airport can be applied to other airports as delays from downstream constraints increase. Such an increase in delays system wide from downstream constraints is inevitable as the system becomes more congested.

Evans, Antony D.↗

Strategic Planning with Unscented Optimal Guidance for Urban Air Mobility

This study proposes a strategic trajectory planning framework to support development of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) traffic networks and optimization of UAM aircraft trajectories that are robust to uncertain wind fields. The development of UAM traffic networks considers static aviation constraints and dynamic weather constraints in urban airspace and the connections to ground transportation networks for preliminary selection of feasible time-optimal routes. The trajectory optimization of UAM aircraft utilizes an unscented optimal guidance approach to generate cost-optimal trajectories constrained on the selected sigma values of probability distribution of uncertain wind fields while ensuring that the end-point constraints are met for reducing wind-induced trajectory uncertainty. Unscented guidance commands are assessed based on trajectory perturbations at subsequent end-points in various wind fields by conducting Monte Carlo simulations.An example of wind-optimal UAM corridor and the associated trajectory-based operation volume is created utilizing the perturbations of the unscented trajectories for preliminary assessment of required aircraft separation minima without knowledge of aircraft navigation performance.

Strategic Planning↗

Rising Above the Cloud - Toward High-Rate Delay-Tolerant Networking in Low-Earth Orbit

The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is implementing a High-rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) capability that can support Low Earth Orbit (LEO) applications and environments. The present state of the effort, future work, and other elements of the work to date are described in this paper. This implementation is intended to support applications that run at 1+ Gbps, per the requirements of modern optical and high-frequency RF links. Uniquely, this implementation is also tuned to support relay and data trunking applications, which might require support for large numbers of small bundles per second. The design for this platform is based entirely on commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, and possesses buffering capabilities in the 5 TB range. This document takes results from previous individual tests and integrates them to demonstrate results in the presence of a coherent use-case: consider a network aboard the ISS which intends to utilize an upcoming optical communications capability. For this use-case, orbital analysis software is used to analyze orbital dynamics, from which a list of access times are generated that might take in to account weather, schedule competition, etc. A variant of Contact Graph Routing (CGR) is applied to these windows to determine an optimal schedule. This schedule is then loaded into the HDTN prototype and, in conjunction with various measurement tools, a complete end-to-end analysis of HDTN's performance is conducted. Various bottlenecks (including storage) are identified: these bottlenecks are expected to help us focus our future work on the elements of the system that are most likely to present issues moving forward. Finally, we discuss possible paths for evolution beyond the present rates supported by the system, including (but not limited to) hardware acceleration.

Hylton, Alan↗

Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]

The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Alaska at the Crossroads of Migration: Space Based Ornithology

Understanding bird migration on a global scale is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Revolutionary advances in remote sensing now provide us with near real-time measurements of atmospheric and land surface conditions at high spatial resolution over entire continents. We use spatially-explicit, individual based bird migration models driven by numerical weather prediction models of atmospheric conditions, dynamic habitat suitability maps derived from remotely sensed land surface conditions, biophysiological models, and biological field data to simulate migration routes, timing, energy budgets, and survival of individual birds and populations. Long-distance migratory birds travel annually between breeding grounds in Alaska and wintering grounds in Latin Amierica. Approximately 25% of these species are potential vectors of Avian Influenza. Alaska is at the crossroads of Asian and New World migratory flyways and is likely to be a point of introduction of Asian H5N1 AI into the western hemisphere. If/when an infected bird is detected, a pressing question will be where was this bird several days ago, and where is it likely to go after it was released from the survey site? Answers to such questions will increase effectiveness of AI surveillance and mitigation measures. From a conservation perspective, Alaska's diverse landscape provides breeding sites for many migrants, and climatic and land surface changes along migratory flyways in the western hemisphere may reduce bird survival and physical condition upon arrival at Alaskan breeding territories, success and migrant populations.

Deppe, Jill↗