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DOE WPTO FY2021 Seedling End Report: Coupling Soil-Foundation Models to MHK Device Dynamic Models to Tighten the Design Envelope
The purpose of this Seedling project is to couple a marine renewable energy (MRE) dynamics simulation software with the soil-foundation models in the OC6 Phase II project [Bergua et al., 2021] and evaluate the software’s performance. This is a first step to accurately evaluating soil-foundation impacts on other types of MRE, like wave or current energy converters (WECs, CECs). OC6 Phase II compares offshore wind turbine (OWT) simulations using several different soil-foundation models to identify and fill key gaps in soil-foundation analyses. WEC-Sim was chosen to model the OC6 Phase II offshore wind turbine and various load cases because of its adaptability, accuracy of hydrodynamic loads, and ability to apply an arbitrary wind loading. Of the four methods used in OC6, the apparent fixity soil-foundation method was coupled with WEC-Sim. Technical challenges with flexible hydrodynamic bodies, added mass and external function libraries inhibited the ability to compare the WEC-Sim results to other OC6 participants. These challenges required that the WEC-Sim model of the OC6 OWT use a combination of rigid and flexible bodies to ensure a numerically stable solution. The rigid monopile creates a more stiff system and causes smaller amplitude motion under hydrodynamic loading and higher dominant frequency of motion under wind loading. These discrepancies are expected based on the increased stiffness of the WEC-Sim case.
Dynamical modeling of tidal streams
I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.
AI-Based EMT Dynamic Model of PV Systems
Several electromagnetic transient (EMT) dynamic modeling methods are available to model systems like photovoltaic (PV) plants, wind power plants, variable-speed drives, among others. The methods include: (a) physics-based models and (b) data-driven models. The physics-based dynamic models may include high-fidelity switched system model and average-value model that both require the control algorithms included in the models. However, manufacturers typically prefer to provide black-box models to avoid disclosing proprietary. One of the solutions to prevent disclosing control algorithms is the use of data-driven dynamic EMT models of PV systems. In this paper, data-driven dynamic EMT model based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are presented. The AI algorithms evaluated include convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model. Automation in generating data and training these models is also discussed in this paper. The results generated by the best AI algorithms have been observed to be greater than 95 % accurate.
Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression
An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.
Dynamic Data Reconciliation and Validation of a Dynamic Model for Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Using Pilot-Plant Data
This paper is focused on the development and validation of a dynamic model for an MEA-based CO 2 capture unit. Starting with a rigorous steady-state process model, the dynamic model is developed in Aspen Plus Dynamics ® using a modified Murphree-efficiency approach and is validated using dynamic data collected from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama. The dynamic test runs were designed with due consideration of process excitation and process nonlinearities constrained by the available time to conduct the test runs and implement the experimental designs in the plant control system. The experimental data include solvent composition and loading. Since the experimental data were found to violate mass and energy balances, filtering algorithms coupled with dynamic data reconciliation techniques were used. Without adjusting any model parameters, the dynamic model satisfactorily predicted dynamic response of CO 2 capture due to step changes in the solvent flowrate, flue gas flowrate, and steam flowrates. Transient studies show that the process gain and time constants can considerably change depending on the direction of the disturbance or manipulated variables, indicating process nonlinearities. Due to a storage tank between the absorber and stripper, the time constant of the full plant can be considerably longer than the time constants of the absorber or stripper individually. Furthermore, impact of the control system on the process efficiency while following an optimal CO 2 capture schedule was also studied.
Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model
The biomass scenario model (BSM) is a dynamic model of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain in the U.S.A., developed during a multi-year analysis effort conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under sponsorship from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). The BSM project, which received the 2018 Applications Award by the International System Dynamics Society, has supported collaborative analyses, developed scenarios for industry development and facilitated stakeholder engagement. We summarize insights gained from the BSM project that may be useful to other large-scale dynamic modeling efforts. We summarize the project focus, the analysis process, key outcomes and observations on successful execution of such a product. Key points include the value of a multidisciplinary team with clear roles, engagement of experts and stakeholders, and use and reuse of simple, modular structures. As a result, the overall effort suggests that these practices may aid long-term, team-focused, multi-stakeholder modeling efforts.
A System Dynamics Model of Early-Stage Transition Dynamics in the Bioproducts Industry
The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the techno-economic attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and end use factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) demand. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.
Reactive molecular dynamics models from ab initio molecular dynamics data using relative entropy minimization
Here, we present two new multiscale molecular dynamics (MS-RMD) models for the hydrated excess proton in water developed directly from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation data of the same system. The potential of mean force along the proton transfer reaction coordinate and radial distribution functions for the MS-RMD models are shown faithfully reproduce those of AIMD. The models are developed using an algorithm based on relative entropy minimization, thus demonstrating the ability of the method to rapidly generate accurate and highly efficient reactive MD force fields.
An opinion-driven behavioral dynamics model for addictive behaviors
We present a model of behavioral dynamics that combines a social network-based opinion dynamics model with behavioral mapping. The behavioral component is discrete and history-dependent to represent situations in which an individual’s behavior is initially driven by opinion and later constrained by physiological or psychological conditions that serve to maintain the behavior. Additionally, individuals are modeled as nodes in a social network connected by directed edges. Parameter sweeps illustrate model behavior and the effects of individual parameters and parameter interactions on model results. Mapping a continuous opinion variable into a discrete behavioral space induces clustering on directed networks. Clusters provide targets of opportunity for influencing the network state; however, the smaller the network the greater the stochasticity and potential variability in outcomes. Furthermore, this has implications both for behaviors that are influenced by close relationships verses those influenced by societal norms and for the effectiveness of strategies for influencing those behaviors.
Application of Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to a Large System Dynamics Model
Variance-based sensitivity methods can provide insights into large computational models. We present a novel application of sensitivity analysis to the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) a large and complex system dynamics model of the developing biofuels industry in the United States. We apply a two-stage sensitivity approach consisting of an initial sensitivity screening, followed by a variance decomposition approach. Identifying key system levers and quantifying their strength is not straightforward in complex system dynamics models that have numerous feedbacks and nonlinear results. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) offers a systematic, global approach to assessing system dynamics models because it addresses nonlinear responses and interactive effects. Especially when a large model's size makes manual exploration of the input space difficult and time-consuming, the approach can help to provide a comprehensive understanding of interactions that drive model behaviors.
Single-size and cluster dynamics modeling of intra-granular fission gas bubbles in UO 2
For this work, we perform simulations of intra-granular fission gas bubble evolution in UO 2 using both a relatively simple, computationally inexpensive single-size model and a detailed cluster dynamics model. Simulations encompass 36 experimental cases from 4 different databases, covering various temperature and burnup levels. We systematically compare results from the two models to each other and to post-irradiation experimental data of bubble average size and number density. Overall, the model-to-model comparisons reveal an excellent agreement across the set of simulations. This outcome indicates that, in spite of the underlying assumptions, the single-size model provides a good approximation of the complex physical behavior that is more rigorously described by the cluster dynamics model. Qualitatively, both models reproduce the trends of the experimental data with temperature and burnup correctly. Quantitatively, calculated results are either in good agreement with the data or within errors that appear consistent with the inherent uncertainties. Moreover, for the single-size model, we demonstrate and assess a multiscale approach whereby values for the fission gas atom diffusion coefficient from separate atomistic calculations are used. Systematic comparisons to experimental data point out a credible accuracy of the multiscale model.
Report on High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of a Coal-Fired Steam Power Plant
As a result of the growth of renewables including solar and wind energy with fluctuating production, fossil fuel power plants are being required to cycle between high and low power production. This cycling is both at a greater frequency and over a wider range than in the past. In many cases, power plants are not designed for this type of cycling operation but can nonetheless endure these challenging operation requirements under the right conditions. In this project, optimal solution for enhanced flexible operations are being investigated using model based estimation and control techniques. To support the development of model-based estimator and model-based controls at GE Global Research, GE Steam Power configured a dynamic model using a reference steam plant design including the boiler, turbine, and water/steam conditioning systems as well as the controls needed for plant cycling with stability and reliability. The dynamic model was built using the APROS® software from VTT, and then calibrated to multiple load conditions from full load (100%TMCR) to partial loads (75%TMCR, 50%TMCR and 25%TMCR) based on internally developed steady state heat balance models at the unit level. These internal heat balance models are based on first principles and extensive engineering experiences from GE Steam Power as an OEM and a services provider. This topical report presents the structure of the unit level dynamic model, the tuning process, and representative simulation results from typical load cycling simulations using the dynamic model.
A dynamic model for the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion coefficient
A stochastic sub-grid model is often used to accurately represent particle dispersion in turbulent flows using large eddy simulations. Models of this type have a free parameter, the dispersion coefficient, which is not universal and is strongly grid-dependent. In the present paper, a dynamic model for the evaluation of the coefficient is proposed and validated in decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The grid dependence of the static coefficient is investigated in a turbulent mixing layer and compared to the dynamic model. The dynamic model accurately predicts dispersion statistics and resolves the grid-dependence. Dispersion statistics of the dynamically calculated constant are more accurate than any static coefficient choice for a number of grid spacings. Furthermore, the dynamic model produces less numerical artefacts than a static model and exhibits smaller sensitivity in the results predicted for different particle relaxation times.
Posterior comparison of model dynamics in several hybrid turbulence model forms
Hybrid turbulence models that can accurately reproduce unsteady three-dimensional flow physics across the entire range of grid scales and turbulence dynamics from Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS), through large-eddy simulation (LES), down to direct numerical simulations (DNS) are of increasing interest to the turbulence modeling community. However, despite decades of research and development, the basic tasks of eliminating poor-performing hybrid RANS-LES models and accelerating adoption of superior models through well-designed validation and verification have yet to occur. As a step in this direction, in this work we evaluate thirteen different hybrid RANS-LES models via systematic grid refinement of decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. We further derive a novel mathematical framework for assessing the energy partitioning dynamics of each Hybrid RANS-LES model, wherein model-to-model variations in energy partitioning can be interpreted as different feedback mechanisms operating on a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system. We found that model forms similar to the flow simulation methodology—also often termed very-large eddy simulation—are dynamically inconsistent with DNS at all resolutions. Additionally, we found a strong dynamical similarity in the feedback mechanisms of all models related to detached eddy simulation and partially averaged Navier–Stokes that is inherent to their general model forms.
A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model
Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.
Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant
Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.
Approximate Bisimulation-Based Reduction of Power System Dynamic Models
In this paper we propose approximate bisimulation relations and functions for reduction of power system dynamic models in differential- algebraic (descriptor) form. The full-size dynamic model is obtained by linearization of the nonlinear transient stability model. We generalize theoretical results on approximate bisimulation relations and bisimulation functions, originally derived for a class of constrained linear systems, to linear systems in descriptor form. An algorithm for transient stability assessment is proposed and used to determine whether the power system is able to maintain the synchronism after a large disturbance. Two benchmark power systems are used to illustrate the proposed algorithm and to evaluate the applicability of approximate bisimulation relations and bisimulation functions for reduction of the power system dynamic models.