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Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Final Report

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 14 topics was developed for further analysis. This paper brings together the earlier interim reports of the first 13 topics plus one additional topic into a single final report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Area of Interest 4.Technical Interest to Electric Infrastructure Planners on Other Subjects

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) provided $60M in funding to five regional entities to conduct interregional transmission planning activities: the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC); the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC); the Transmission Expansion Planning and Policy Committee (TEPPC); the State Provincial Steering Committee (SPSC);and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). DOE also provided funding to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) to support aspects of these interregional transmission planning activities. LBNL’s support involved both technical assistance to DOE in its oversight of the activities conducted by the five regional entities and the preparation of six, standalone technical studies that were conducted in direct support for specific entities. This is the final report on LBNL’s activities. It consists of summaries of each activity; references are provided to each of the stand-alone studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on High Priority Topics

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 13 topics was developed for further analysis; this paper discusses the first five.

Electricity Grid↗

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on Medium Priority Topics

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a stakeholder steering committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. The first was a 2015–2040 analysis that looked at a broad array of possible future scenarios, while the second focused on a more detailed examination of the grid in 2030. The studies provided a wealth of information on possible future generation, demand, and transmission alternatives. However, at the conclusion there were still unresolved questions and issues. The US Department of Energy, which had sponsored the study, asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers and others who worked on the project to conduct an additional study of the data to provide further insights for stakeholders and the industry. This report documents the second part of that follow-on study [an earlier report (Hadley 2013) covered the first part, and a subsequent report will address the last part].

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Redefining What’s Possible for Renewable Energy

NREL project manager Aaron Bloom introduces NREL’s Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) and high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies that allowed NREL to model operations of the Eastern Interconnection at unprecedented fidelity. ERGIS shows that the Eastern Interconnection can balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar photovoltaics at a 5-minute level, for one simulated year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Regional Oscillation Source Localization: Implementation in the ESAMS Tool

In recent years, utilities have made great strides in the use of high-speed wide-area measurements collected from within their footprints. However, it is increasingly clear that analyses at wider scales are needed. On January 11, 2019 an oscillation with significant amplitude observable across the Eastern Interconnection persisted for approximately 18 minutes. The generator responsible for the oscillation was only identified after it tripped itself offline. This event, along with several other similar events, demonstrated the need for increased coordination among utilities to effectively mitigate system-wide oscillations and avoid unnecessary or detrimental operator actions. In response to this need, the Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness Monitoring System (ESAMS) was upgraded to allow the region where an oscillation is originating to be identified. This report documents the algorithms developed for this task and describes how they were integrated into the ESAMS tool. Results from simulation- and measurement-based tests demonstrate the reliability of the approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Visualization of the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Preprint

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS), explores the operational impacts of the wide spread adoption of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) resources in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection and Quebec Interconnection (collectively, EI). In order to understand some of the economic and reliability challenges of managing hundreds of gigawatts of wind and PV generation, we developed state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NREL's high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions. state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NRELs high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimisation of dynamic reactive power sources using mesh adaptive direct search

Dynamic reactive power sources can be used to effectively mitigate the fault-induced delayed voltage recovery and transient voltage instability issues. When many var sources need to be installed at planned locations, optimisation of their sizes is a complicated non-linear optimisation problem due to its non-convexity and the dependence of the constraint on time-series trajectories of post-fault voltages. Solving this optimal sizing problem needs to utilise both a non-linear optimisation solver and a power system differential-algebraic equation solver. This study proposes a new approach for solving this problem under both a single contingency and multiple contingencies by using the mesh adaptive direct search algorithm interfaced with a power system simulator. The proposed approach is validated by case studies on a North American Eastern Interconnection model to optimise the sizes of planned STATCOMs against critical contingencies.

Huang, Weihong↗

A generative graph model for electrical infrastructure networks

We propose a generative graph model for electrical infrastructure networks that accounts for heterogeneity in both node and edge type. To inform the design of this model, we analyze the properties of power grid graphs derived from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, Texas Interconnection, and Poland transmission system power grids. Across these datasets, we find subgraphs induced by nodes of the same voltage level exhibit shared structural properties atypical to small-world networks, including low local clustering, large diameter and large average distance. On the other hand, we find subgraphs induced by transformer edges linking nodes of different voltage types contain a more limited structure, consisting mainly of small, disjoint star graphs. The goal of our proposed model is to match both these inter and intra-network properties by proceeding in two phases: we first generate subgraphs for each voltage level and then generate transformer edges that connect these subgraphs. The first phase of the model adapts the Chung-Lu random graph model, taking desired vertex degrees and desired diameter as inputs, while the second phase of the model is based on a simpler random star graph generation process. We test the performance of our model by comparing its output across many runs to the aforementioned real data. In nearly all categories tested, we find our model is more accurate in reproducing the unusual mixture of properties apparent in the data than the Chung-Lu model. We also include graph visualization comparisons, as well as a brief analysis of edge-deletion resiliency. Ultimately, our model may be used to generate synthetic graph data, test hypotheses and algorithms at different scales, and serve as a baseline model on top of which further electrical network properties, device models, and interdependencies to other networks, may be appended.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Active power control of solar PV generation for large interconnection frequency regulation and oscillation damping

Because of zero greenhouse gas emission and decreased manufacture cost, solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is expected to account for a significant portion of future power grid generation portfolio. Because it is indirectly connected to the power grid via power electronic devices, solar PV generation system is fully decoupled from the power grid, which will influence the interconnected power grid dynamic characteristics as a result. In this study, the impact of solar PV penetration on large interconnected power system frequency response and inter-area oscillation is evaluated, taking the United States Eastern Interconnection (EI) as an example. Furthermore, based on the constructed solar PV electrical control model with additional active power control loops, the potential contributions of solar PV generation to power system frequency regulation and oscillation damping are examined. The advantages of solar PV frequency support over that of wind generator are also discussed. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that solar PV generations can effectively work as ‘actuators’ in alleviating the negative impacts they bring about.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study

The Eastern Interconnection (EI) is one of the largest power systems in the world, and its size and complexity have historically made it difficult to study in high levels of detail in a modeling environment. In order to understand how this system might be impacted by high penetrations (30% of total annual generation) of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) during steady state operations, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS). This study investigates certain aspects of the reliability and economic efficiency problem faced by power system operators and planners. Specifically, the study models the ability to meet electricity demand at a 5-minute time interval by scheduling resources for known ramping events, while maintaining adequate reserves to meet random variation in supply and demand, and contingency events. To measure the ability to meet these requirements, a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model is employed to simulate power system operations. The economic costs of managing this system are presented using production costs, a traditional UC&ED metric that does not include any consideration of long-term fixed costs. ERGIS simulated one year of power system operations to understand regional and sub-hourly impacts of wind and PV by developing a comprehensive UC&ED model of the EI. In the analysis, it is shown that, under the study assumptions, generation from approximately 400 GW of combined wind and PV capacity can be balanced on the transmission system at a 5-minute level. In order to address the significant computational burdens associated with a model of this detail we apply novel computing techniques to dramatically reduce simulation solve time while simultaneously increasing the resolution and fidelity of the analysis. Our results also indicate that high penetrations of wind and PV (collectively variable generation (VG)), significantly impact the operation of traditional generating resources and cause these resources to be used less frequently and operate across a broader output range because wind and PV have lower operating costs and variable output levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparative Assessment of Tactics to Improve Primary Frequency Response Without Curtailing Solar Output in High Photovoltaic Interconnection Grids

Power grid primary frequency response will be significantly impaired by Photovoltaic (PV) penetration increase because of the decrease in inertia and governor response. PV inertia and governor emulation requires reserving PV output and leads to solar energy waste. This paper exploits current grid resources and explores energy storage for primary frequency response under high PV penetration at the interconnection level. Based on the actual models of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection grid and the Texas grid, effects of multiple factors associated with primary frequency response, including the governor ratio, governor deadband, droop rate, fast load response. are assessed under high PV penetration scenarios. In addition, performance of batteries and supercapacitors using different control strategies is studied in the two interconnections. The paper quantifies the potential of various resources to improve interconnection-level primary frequency response under high PV penetration without curtailing solar output.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Comparative Analysis of Inter-Area Oscillations in the US Eastern and Western Interconnections

This paper presents a comparative analysis of interarea oscillations in the US Eastern and Western Interconnections using frequency disturbance data collected from the advanced wide-area Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye), enabling us to investigate and compare the oscillation characteristics of both regions. The study analyzes the statistical data from the two interconnections, including total oscillation events, average dominant frequencies, damping ratios, and maximum amplitudes. We also explore the impact of seasonal and daily variations on oscillation occurrences and the influence of different grid topologies and operational practices. The results provide insights into both interconnections' stability and control characteristics, offering valuable information for power system operators to enhance grid stability and oscillation suppression measures.

Fu, Hao [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)]↗