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DOE OSTI2022

Carbon and energy cost impacts of electrification of space heating with heat pumps in the US

In order to meet climate goals, it will be necessary to significantly reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by homes. A key factor in the US is to reduce the on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating end-uses and to replace this with use of electric heat pump technologies connected to a low-carbon grid. The replacement of natural gas furnaces with electric heat pumps is a key home decarbonization strategy. However, the potential for space heating electrification to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) content of the electricity used by the heat pump. This varies considerably depending on the source of electricity, with large state to state variability. Furthermore, household energy costs are likely to be impacted by the electrification of space heating, because retail energy prices for both natural gas and electricity in each state vary by factors of seven and four, respectively. Contractors, energy programs, government and building code officials, as well as consumers need clear indications of the likely CO 2 e and energy cost impacts of proposed electrification projects, because these will affect decarbonization choices and rationales around scaled heating electrification. Government and utility programs also need to be aware of the likely outcomes of any supported/incentivized measures. Here, in this paper, we investigate these effects by looking at new metrics to analyze the change in CO 2 e emitted and the cost to meet home heating loads when switching from a natural gas furnace to a heat pump for the contiguous 48 states of the mainland US.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

High electrification futures: Impacts to the U.S. bulk power system

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic comparison of electrification for heavy-duty trucks in China by 2040

We show that electrification of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) is critical of achieving sustainability and carbon neutrality in road freight. Based on the total cost of ownership and the life-cycle emissions, the study compared the traditional diesel internal combustion engine vehicle technologies with potential electrification options for HDTs in China, including battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, and battery electric catenary vehicle. Scenario and sensitivity analysis were explored the life-cycle effects of these electrification options in China from 2020 to 2040. It is found that green electricity and green hydrogen are the most important factors influencing the life-cycle emissions of CO 2 , NO X , and PM 2.5 for different HDTs’ electrification options. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle of HDTs has shown good performance in terms of total cost and carbon emissions, mainly due to the reduced battery capacity and the current grid mix in China.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]

As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of Building Electrification Technologies and Market Opportunities

This report provides an overview of building electrification drivers and select building electrification technologies and their markets and performance. Covered topics: Building Electrification Drivers and Context; Heat Pumps for Space Conditioning; Heat Pump Market Opportunities; Life Cycle GHG Emissions Impacts of Heat Pump Space Conditioning Technologies; Heat Pump Water Heaters; Electrification of Gas Loads: Commercial and Residential; Residential Panel Capacity; Electric Vehicle Impacts and Connections to Buildings; and Building Envelope Improvements and Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

It's All About the Envelope: Prioritizing Envelope Upgrades for Electrification of Cold Climate Homes

Building decarbonization via electrification on a clean grid is the most promising climate solution proposed to date for the building sector. In cold climate zones, building electrification will be driven in large part by moving from natural gas space heating to cold climate heat pumps (CCHPs). CCHPs are commercially available today, including economical cold climate air source heat pumps (ccASHPs). But there's one big problem - wide-scale adoption of ccASHPs will dramatically increase winter peak electricity demand, even with the highest efficiency ccASHP products. Furthermore, cold climate space heating loads will drive unprecedented electric system peaks during the lowest periods of renewable generation and are likely to overwhelm existing distribution systems. This scenario is avoidable by coupling electrification with building envelope upgrades to reduce peak heating loads. This paper presents a model, built from home energy audit and research data sets, that quantifies the above challenges. Results demonstrate how weatherization efforts coupled with additional high-performance envelope upgrade measures can prepare the building stock for electrification and show the benefit these measures can bring to future utility operations. Much of this envelope upgrade work is cost-effective, according to conservative cost-benefit testing and program successes to date, and is coupled with substantial non-energy benefits. However, persistent market barriers have made scaling of envelope retrofit work challenging for decades, suggesting additional policy support is required. Lessons learned from previous policy experience, combined with new technology and administrative support, create exciting potential for this decarbonization climate solution.

air sealing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of truck electrification on air pollution disparities in the United States

Electrifying heavy-duty trucks reduces on-road diesel emissions but shifts the burden of supplying energy to power-generation facilities. The combined effect of Inflation Reduction Act investments in grid decarbonization and truck electrification will alter the magnitude and distribution of air pollution burdens across the United States. These investments are intended to facilitate a just energy transition, with 40% of the benefits flowing to disadvantaged communities per the Justice40 Initiative. Here we evaluate the combined effects of Inflation Reduction Act grid decarbonization and truck electrification investments on a national scale to determine whether the air pollution benefits would meet this 40% goal for both disadvantaged communities and the most exposed racial–ethnic groups. We find that truck electrification and decarbonization reduce air-pollution-related premature mortality in disadvantaged communities. However, the relative disparity between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities increases, suggesting that a disproportionate share of benefits accrue to non-disadvantaged communities. Whereas absolute disparity in grid emissions decreases over time for all racial–ethnic groups, relative disparity remains largely unchanged, with Black populations being the most exposed. Electrifying drayage corridors would result in comparatively large health benefits for disadvantaged communities, suggesting that increasing targeted electrification investments in short-haul routes near urban areas (for example, ports) could be promising.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.

Alarfaj, Abdullah F. (ORCID:0000000157360662)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: An Assessment of Technology and Knowledge Gaps

The objective of this assessment was to leverage current medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) data and information to evaluate the state of commercial vehicle electrification technologies, including the following: 1. Assessment and inventory of current MHDV electrification architectures; 2. Identification and assessment of MHDV component technologies; 3. Assessment of potential performance and cost drivers; and, 4. Identification of R&D gaps where appropriate R&D and technology would accelerate commercial vehicle electrification. These gaps include shortfalls in technology, gaps in data, and inadequate knowledge and understanding. To inform this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory–Oak Ridge National Laboratory team examined the open literature; conducted workshops; assessed and analyzed data on more than 175 electrified MHDVs, including vehicle and powertrain specifications; and conducted one-on-one meetings with industry representatives. This systems-level information was concatenated and parsed with respect to key characteristics such as battery energy, power, and range compared across vehicle classes. Operational data of many conventional vehicles were also examined to help determine the requirements on electrified vehicle attributes such as range. Previous studies on the total cost of ownership of electrified MHDVs were reviewed to determine where improvements in technologies (efficiency, cost, maintenance) were needed to accelerate adoption. The team also assessed the state of the art in electric drivetrains for component specifications and challenges for the commercial vehicle sector, including electric machines, power electronics, and off-board high-power charging systems (extreme fast charging and beyond). The goal of this analysis was to identify the barriers to widespread adoption of commercial vehicle electrification technologies and prioritize the research and development gaps that need to be overcome to accelerate significant market penetration of these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 11: Truck Electrification for Improved Air Quality and Health

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This report focuses on truck electrification as a means to improve air quality and health in traffic and air quality disadvantaged communities. It also identifies potential strategies to more equitably distribute air quality benefits from electrification of trucks, defined here as heavy-duty vehicles over 8,500 pounds (lbs) gross vehicle weight. Specifically, NREL analyzed 1) baseline air pollutant emissions, 2) emissions reductions associated with incremental increases in electrification of three types of heavy-duty trucks in 2035, and 3) resultant changes to air pollutant concentrations for selected census tracts along major roadways in disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities for comparison. In addition, NREL analyzed the impact of estimated pollutant concentrations on several health effects and the distribution of those health effects by disadvantaged community status. NREL's analysis is complemented by a University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) analysis of air quality benefits from transportation electrification, which included light-duty vehicles (Chapter 15) and evaluated regional air-quality changes across Los Angeles. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Airport Ground Support Equipment Infrastructure & Logistics Electrification Assessment Tool: 2025 Data Development, Modeling and Analysis for DFW

The aviation industry is increasingly turning to modernize freight facilities by integrating electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance operational efficiency of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment. Airports worldwide are adopting eGSE to streamline cargo movement, reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and improve logistics coordination.1 North America, with its advanced aviation infrastructure, leads this transition, leveraging Internet of things (IoT)-enabled automation and zero emission technologies to boost reliability and reduce human errors.2 Electrification of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment boosts turnaround times, improves equipment reliability, and optimizes logistics coordination, giving operators a competitive advantage. With rising fuel price volatility and the pressure to meet stringent performance benchmarks, airports are focusing on cost-effective, scalable solutions for long-term financial and operational gains. To further accelerate electrification, airports are integrating Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) into rental car fleets and deploying electric baggage carts, requiring strategic investments in charging infrastructure. 3 The shift, however, presents challenges, such as limited technical expertise, high capital costs, and complex procurement processes. By forging strategic partnerships, leveraging advanced technologies, and optimizing infrastructure investments, airports can create a resilient, future-ready ecosystem that enhances the movement of people and goods through electrification-driven efficiency. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO), this electrification effort provides a scalable, cost-effective solution to improve airport freight operations. Through targeted investments and innovation, airports enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and meet performance benchmarks while advancing toward a resilient, electrified future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrification (2023 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Electrification R&D projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program’s mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types. The Grid and Charging Infrastructure (G&I) program's mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that enable reduced petroleum consumption by light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The program identifies and enables the role of vehicles in the future electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification of Airport Shuttle Operations

Fleet owners are increasingly looking to adopt electric vehicles, however careful consideration is needed to ensure electric vehicles can perform their duty without impacting operations. This work examines a fleet of 200 Dallas-Fort Worth airport shuttle buses to estimate the opportunity for vehicle electrification. Analysis suggests unique pathways to electrification for each mode of operation, and unique benefits and challenges whether they serve employee lots, rental car lots, remote lots, or aircraft hardstand operations. These analyses include daily energy consumption, charging opportunities; emissions impacts; and charging location potential using hotspot analysis. Results highlight the most promising candidates for electrification and provide pathways for future electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗