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Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]

As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Overview of Building Electrification Technologies and Market Opportunities

This report provides an overview of building electrification drivers and select building electrification technologies and their markets and performance. Covered topics: Building Electrification Drivers and Context; Heat Pumps for Space Conditioning; Heat Pump Market Opportunities; Life Cycle GHG Emissions Impacts of Heat Pump Space Conditioning Technologies; Heat Pump Water Heaters; Electrification of Gas Loads: Commercial and Residential; Residential Panel Capacity; Electric Vehicle Impacts and Connections to Buildings; and Building Envelope Improvements and Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

It's All About the Envelope: Prioritizing Envelope Upgrades for Electrification of Cold Climate Homes

Building decarbonization via electrification on a clean grid is the most promising climate solution proposed to date for the building sector. In cold climate zones, building electrification will be driven in large part by moving from natural gas space heating to cold climate heat pumps (CCHPs). CCHPs are commercially available today, including economical cold climate air source heat pumps (ccASHPs). But there's one big problem - wide-scale adoption of ccASHPs will dramatically increase winter peak electricity demand, even with the highest efficiency ccASHP products. Furthermore, cold climate space heating loads will drive unprecedented electric system peaks during the lowest periods of renewable generation and are likely to overwhelm existing distribution systems. This scenario is avoidable by coupling electrification with building envelope upgrades to reduce peak heating loads. This paper presents a model, built from home energy audit and research data sets, that quantifies the above challenges. Results demonstrate how weatherization efforts coupled with additional high-performance envelope upgrade measures can prepare the building stock for electrification and show the benefit these measures can bring to future utility operations. Much of this envelope upgrade work is cost-effective, according to conservative cost-benefit testing and program successes to date, and is coupled with substantial non-energy benefits. However, persistent market barriers have made scaling of envelope retrofit work challenging for decades, suggesting additional policy support is required. Lessons learned from previous policy experience, combined with new technology and administrative support, create exciting potential for this decarbonization climate solution.

air sealing↗

Impact of truck electrification on air pollution disparities in the United States

Electrifying heavy-duty trucks reduces on-road diesel emissions but shifts the burden of supplying energy to power-generation facilities. The combined effect of Inflation Reduction Act investments in grid decarbonization and truck electrification will alter the magnitude and distribution of air pollution burdens across the United States. These investments are intended to facilitate a just energy transition, with 40% of the benefits flowing to disadvantaged communities per the Justice40 Initiative. Here we evaluate the combined effects of Inflation Reduction Act grid decarbonization and truck electrification investments on a national scale to determine whether the air pollution benefits would meet this 40% goal for both disadvantaged communities and the most exposed racial–ethnic groups. We find that truck electrification and decarbonization reduce air-pollution-related premature mortality in disadvantaged communities. However, the relative disparity between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities increases, suggesting that a disproportionate share of benefits accrue to non-disadvantaged communities. Whereas absolute disparity in grid emissions decreases over time for all racial–ethnic groups, relative disparity remains largely unchanged, with Black populations being the most exposed. Electrifying drayage corridors would result in comparatively large health benefits for disadvantaged communities, suggesting that increasing targeted electrification investments in short-haul routes near urban areas (for example, ports) could be promising.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.

Alarfaj, Abdullah F. (ORCID:0000000157360662)↗

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: An Assessment of Technology and Knowledge Gaps

The objective of this assessment was to leverage current medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) data and information to evaluate the state of commercial vehicle electrification technologies, including the following: 1. Assessment and inventory of current MHDV electrification architectures; 2. Identification and assessment of MHDV component technologies; 3. Assessment of potential performance and cost drivers; and, 4. Identification of R&D gaps where appropriate R&D and technology would accelerate commercial vehicle electrification. These gaps include shortfalls in technology, gaps in data, and inadequate knowledge and understanding. To inform this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory–Oak Ridge National Laboratory team examined the open literature; conducted workshops; assessed and analyzed data on more than 175 electrified MHDVs, including vehicle and powertrain specifications; and conducted one-on-one meetings with industry representatives. This systems-level information was concatenated and parsed with respect to key characteristics such as battery energy, power, and range compared across vehicle classes. Operational data of many conventional vehicles were also examined to help determine the requirements on electrified vehicle attributes such as range. Previous studies on the total cost of ownership of electrified MHDVs were reviewed to determine where improvements in technologies (efficiency, cost, maintenance) were needed to accelerate adoption. The team also assessed the state of the art in electric drivetrains for component specifications and challenges for the commercial vehicle sector, including electric machines, power electronics, and off-board high-power charging systems (extreme fast charging and beyond). The goal of this analysis was to identify the barriers to widespread adoption of commercial vehicle electrification technologies and prioritize the research and development gaps that need to be overcome to accelerate significant market penetration of these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 11: Truck Electrification for Improved Air Quality and Health

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This report focuses on truck electrification as a means to improve air quality and health in traffic and air quality disadvantaged communities. It also identifies potential strategies to more equitably distribute air quality benefits from electrification of trucks, defined here as heavy-duty vehicles over 8,500 pounds (lbs) gross vehicle weight. Specifically, NREL analyzed 1) baseline air pollutant emissions, 2) emissions reductions associated with incremental increases in electrification of three types of heavy-duty trucks in 2035, and 3) resultant changes to air pollutant concentrations for selected census tracts along major roadways in disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities for comparison. In addition, NREL analyzed the impact of estimated pollutant concentrations on several health effects and the distribution of those health effects by disadvantaged community status. NREL's analysis is complemented by a University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) analysis of air quality benefits from transportation electrification, which included light-duty vehicles (Chapter 15) and evaluated regional air-quality changes across Los Angeles. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Airport Ground Support Equipment Infrastructure & Logistics Electrification Assessment Tool: 2025 Data Development, Modeling and Analysis for DFW

The aviation industry is increasingly turning to modernize freight facilities by integrating electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance operational efficiency of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment. Airports worldwide are adopting eGSE to streamline cargo movement, reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and improve logistics coordination.1 North America, with its advanced aviation infrastructure, leads this transition, leveraging Internet of things (IoT)-enabled automation and zero emission technologies to boost reliability and reduce human errors.2 Electrification of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment boosts turnaround times, improves equipment reliability, and optimizes logistics coordination, giving operators a competitive advantage. With rising fuel price volatility and the pressure to meet stringent performance benchmarks, airports are focusing on cost-effective, scalable solutions for long-term financial and operational gains. To further accelerate electrification, airports are integrating Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) into rental car fleets and deploying electric baggage carts, requiring strategic investments in charging infrastructure. 3 The shift, however, presents challenges, such as limited technical expertise, high capital costs, and complex procurement processes. By forging strategic partnerships, leveraging advanced technologies, and optimizing infrastructure investments, airports can create a resilient, future-ready ecosystem that enhances the movement of people and goods through electrification-driven efficiency. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO), this electrification effort provides a scalable, cost-effective solution to improve airport freight operations. Through targeted investments and innovation, airports enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and meet performance benchmarks while advancing toward a resilient, electrified future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electrification (2023 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Electrification R&D projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program’s mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types. The Grid and Charging Infrastructure (G&I) program's mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that enable reduced petroleum consumption by light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The program identifies and enables the role of vehicles in the future electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrification of Airport Shuttle Operations

Fleet owners are increasingly looking to adopt electric vehicles, however careful consideration is needed to ensure electric vehicles can perform their duty without impacting operations. This work examines a fleet of 200 Dallas-Fort Worth airport shuttle buses to estimate the opportunity for vehicle electrification. Analysis suggests unique pathways to electrification for each mode of operation, and unique benefits and challenges whether they serve employee lots, rental car lots, remote lots, or aircraft hardstand operations. These analyses include daily energy consumption, charging opportunities; emissions impacts; and charging location potential using hotspot analysis. Results highlight the most promising candidates for electrification and provide pathways for future electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗

Electrification Futures Study

Through the Electrification Futures Study (EFS), NREL explored the impacts of widespread electrification in all U.S. economic sectors. For the multiyear study, NREL and its research partners - Electric Power Research Institute, Evolved Energy Research, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Northern Arizona University, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory - used multiple analytic tools and models to develop and assess electrification scenarios designed to quantify potential energy, economic, and environmental impacts to the U.S. power system and broader economy. This presentation summarizes the analysis and key findings from across the EFS publications, with a focus on the data and results that are most relevant - and of most interest - to the state of Montana.

EFS↗

CO 2 conversion to syngas via electrification of endothermal reactors: Process design and environmental impact analysis

CO 2 utilization via reverse water gas shift (rWGS) reaction has been proposed as a path to the sustainable utilization. Here this work presents a detailed process modelling study where steam methane reforming (SMR) generated hydrogen was combined with rWGS to produce syngas (CO + H 2 ) with various hydrogen-to-carbon oxide ratios. To further decrease CO 2 emissions that may offset the benefits of CO 2 converted in rWGS, electrification of endothermal reactors, both SMR and rWGS was considered where CO 2 emitting fuel burning in the furnace was replaced by the emerging ohmic (resistive) heating. Material and energy inventory obtained from process design calculations was used to perform Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to calculate environmental impacts of CO 2 consumption and reactor electrification. The results showed that greenhouse gas emissions, in CO 2 kg equivalent, were the lowest when both SMR and rWGS were heated using wind-generated electricity, decreasing from 25 to 10 kg CO 2 equivalent for H 2 :CO = 2:1 while the conventional electricity mix used for furnace electrical heating across the board of scenarios generated highest environmental impacts, much higher than those that used natural gas as fuel. Process economics calculations suggested that, when both SMR and rWGS were electrically heated, the process only showed product syngas cost parity with the conventional fuel heated design when electricity cost was ~$0.008/kWh. This suggests that CO 2 utilization scenarios involving process electrification need to be carefully considered from the total design perspective so they do not produce more greenhouse gases than in conventional non-electrified scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated Transit Fleet Electrification Planning in Response to Route Dynamics, Vehicle Utilization, and Local Climate

Transit electrification is difficult, requiring the consideration of many factors including route dynamics, vehicle utilization, and local ambient temperatures. Incumbent planning tools typically rely upon static vehicle efficiency numbers which do not consider local factors specific to each fleet. This paper summarizes a collaboration between NREL and Microgrid Labs, which produced an automated sizing tool capable of producing vehicle battery and motor sizing for drop-in electrification. Furthermore, the workflow also exports the electric-vehicle supply equipment needed to support fleet electrification. The paper summarizes the model theory and includes a sample pilot study performed in support of the Via Mobility transit fleet.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗