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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight Over the Last Ten Years: Failures and Fix-ups 2013 - 2022 RAMS XV Conference

This project is an overview and analysis of the past ten years (2013 – present) in global spaceflight, highlighting the orbital launches of countries, particularly the failures that occurred, the reasons they occurred, and a breakdown of the related statistics and background information. The analysis is conducted from a perspective of reliability and maintainability engineering and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to formulate a quantifiable understanding of the data and how it is pertinent to Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) in spaceflight. There is a breakdown by country or group, timelines, and number of launches. The failures over the years are categorized, all given a broad analysis of subsystem failures and details of events. A few failures are given a more in-depth analysis of root causes and failure modes determined by their unique or common nature. The data is retrieved from online, publicly available sources.

Quinn Slaugenhoupt↗

NASA NTRS1982

Automotive Stirling Engine Mod 1 Design Review, Volume 1

Risk assessment, safety analysis of the automotive stirling engine (ASE) mod I, design criteria and materials properties for the ASE mod I and reference engines, combustion are flower development, and the mod I engine starter motor are discussed. The stirling engine system, external heat system, hot engine system, cold engine system, and engine drive system are also discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Remote Imaging of Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Entry Heating Risk Reduction

A Measure of Performance (MOP) identified with an Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Multi- Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Flight Test Objective (FTO) (OFT1.091) specified an observation during reentry though external ground-based or airborne assets with thermal detection capabilities. The objective of this FTO was to be met with onboard Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI), but the MOP for external observation was intended to provide complementary quantitative data and serve as a risk reduction in the event of anomalous DFI behavior (or failure). Mr. Gavin Mendeck, the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Phase Engineer for the MPCV Program (Vehicle Integration Office/Systems & Mission Integration) requested a risk-reduction assessment from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to determine whether quantitative imagery could be obtained from remote aerial assets to support the external observation MOP. If so, then a viable path forward was to be determined, risks identified, and an observation pursued. If not, then the MOP for external observation was to be eliminated.

Schuster, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program

This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.

Kirsch, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Buchbinder, Ben↗

NASA NTRS1993

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within it, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Bridging the Engineering and Medicine Gap

A primary challenge NASA faces is communication between the disparate entities of engineers and human system experts in life sciences. Clear communication is critical for exploration mission success from the perspective of both risk analysis and data handling. The engineering community uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to inform their own risk analysis and has extensive experience managing mission data, but does not always fully consider human systems integration (HSI). The medical community, as a part of HSI, has been working 1) to develop a suite of tools to express medical risk in quantitative terms that are relatable to the engineering approaches commonly in use, and 2) to manage and integrate HSI data with engineering data. This talk will review the development of the Integrated Medical Model as an early attempt to bridge the communication gap between the medical and engineering communities in the language of PRA. This will also address data communication between the two entities in the context of data management considerations of the Medical Data Architecture. Lessons learned from these processes will help identify important elements to consider in future communication and integration of these two groups.

Walton, M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Analysis of the Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine with Ice Crystal Cloud Ingestion at Simulated Altitudes

The Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE), a research version of a turbofan engine that never entered production, was tested in the NASA Propulsion System Laboratory (PSL), an altitude test facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL is a facility that is equipped with water spray bars capable of producing an ice cloud consisting of ice particles, having a controlled particle diameter and concentration in the air flow. To develop the test matrix of the HURE, numerical analysis of flow and ice particle thermodynamics was performed on the compression system of the turbofan engine to predict operating conditions that could potentially result in a risk of ice accretion due to ice crystal ingestion. The goal of the test matrix was to provide operating conditions such that ice would accrete in either the fan-stator through the inlet guide vane region of the compression system or within the first stator of the high pressure compressor. The predictive analyses were performed with the mean line compressor flow modeling code (COMDESMELT) which includes an ice particle model. The HURE engine was tested in PSL with the ice cloud over the range of operating conditions of altitude, ambient temperature, simulated flight Mach number, and fan speed with guidance from the analytical predictions. The engine was fitted with video cameras at strategic locations within the engine compression system flow path where ice was predicted to accrete, in order to visually confirm ice accretion when it occurred. In addition, traditional compressor instrumentation such as total pressure and temperature probes, static pressure taps, and metal temperature thermocouples were installed in targeted areas where the risk of ice accretion was expected. The current research focuses on the analysis of the data that was obtained after testing the HURE engine in PSL with ice crystal ingestion. The computational method (COMDES-MELT) was enhanced by computing key parameters through the fan-stator at multiple span wise locations, in order to increase the fidelity with the current mean-line method. The Icing Wedge static wet-bulb temperature thresholds were applied for determining the risk of ice accretion in the fan-stator, which is thought to be an adiabatic region. At some operating conditions near the splitter-lip region, other sources of heat (non-adiabatic walls) were suspected to be the cause of accretion, and the Icing Wedge was not applied to predict accretion at that location. A simple order-of-magnitude heat transfer model was implemented into the COMDES-MELT code to estimate the wall temperature minimum and maximum thresholds that support ice accretion, as observed by video confirmation. The results from this model spanned the range of wall temperatures measured on a previous engine that experienced ice accretion at certain operating conditions. The goal of this study is to show that the computational process developed on earlier engine icing tests can be used to provide an icing risk assessment in adiabatic regions for other engines.

Turbofan engine↗

NASA NTRS2022

Safe Human Expeditions Beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conducted an interdisciplinary study and workshop focusing on capabilities needed for crew health and safety on long-duration deep space expeditions in support of the Artemis Program and missions to Mars. The study focused on integration among four disciplines: 1) space weather monitoring and forecasting, 2) shielding technologies, 3) human health research, and 4) human factors engineering tools. An integrated risk assessment was performed to inform characteristics of mission architecture and capabilities needed for safe, long-duration human expeditions beyond low Earth orbit. This report contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Low Earth Orbit↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Example of Risk Informed Design

NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.

Banke, Rick↗

NASA NTRS2016

Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

Anton, W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) Wet Storage Risk Assessment

The International Space Station (ISS) Program requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to evaluate the risks posed by the practice of long-term wet storage of ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) regeneration system orbital replacement units (ORUs). The ISS ECLS regeneration system removes water from urine and humidity condensate and converts it into potable water and oxygen. A total of 29 ORUs are in the ECLS system, each designed to be replaced by the ISS crew when necessary. The NESC assembled a team to review the ISS ECLS regeneration system and evaluate the potential for biofouling and corrosion. This document contains the outcome of the evaluation.

Squire, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

NSTS Orbiter auxiliary power unit turbine wheel cracking risk assessment

The present investigation of turbine-wheel cracking problems in the hydrazine-fueled APU turbine wheel of the Space Shuttle Orbiter's Main Engines has indicated the efficacy of systematic probabilistic risk assessment in flight certification and safety resolution. Nevertheless, real crack-initiation and propagation problems do not lend themselves to purely analytical studies. The high-cycle fatigue problem is noted to generally be unsuited to probabilistic modeling, due to its extremely high degree of intrinsic scatter. In the case treated, the cracks appear to trend toward crack arrest in a low cycle fatigue mode, due to a detuning of the resonance model.

Cruse, T. A.↗