Stochastic compartmental analysis - Model and least squares estimation from time series data
Biomathematical model and least square estimation from time series data of discrete particle population in stochastic compartmental system
Hartley, H. O.↗
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Real-time orbit estimation for ATS-6 from redundant attitude sensors
A program installed in the ATSOCC on-line computer operates with attitude sensor data to produce a smoothed real-time orbit estimate. This estimate is obtained from a Kalman filter which enables the estimate to be maintained in the absence of T/M data. The results are described of analytical and numerical investigations into the sensitivity of Control Center output to the position errors resulting from the real-time estimation. The results of the numerical investigation, which used several segments of ATS-6 data gathered during the Sensor Data Acquisition run on August 19, 1974, show that the implemented system can achieve absolute position determination with an error of about 100 km, implying pointing errors of less than 0.2 deg in latitude and longitude. This compares very favorably with ATS-6 specifications of approximately 0.5 deg in latitude-longitude.
Englar, T. S., Jr.↗
Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration
The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.
Chelton, Dudley B.↗
Using LDPC Code Constraints to Aid Recovery of Symbol Timing
A method of utilizing information available in the constraints imposed by a low-density parity-check (LDPC) code has been proposed as a means of aiding the recovery of symbol timing in the reception of a binary-phase-shift-keying (BPSK) signal representing such a code in the presence of noise, timing error, and/or Doppler shift between the transmitter and the receiver. This method and the receiver architecture in which it would be implemented belong to a class of timing-recovery methods and corresponding receiver architectures characterized as pilotless in that they do not require transmission and reception of pilot signals. Acquisition and tracking of a signal of the type described above have traditionally been performed upstream of, and independently of, decoding and have typically involved utilization of a phase-locked loop (PLL). However, the LDPC decoding process, which is iterative, provides information that can be fed back to the timing-recovery receiver circuits to improve performance significantly over that attainable in the absence of such feedback. Prior methods of coupling LDPC decoding with timing recovery had focused on the use of output code words produced as the iterations progress. In contrast, in the present method, one exploits the information available from the metrics computed for the constraint nodes of an LDPC code during the decoding process. In addition, the method involves the use of a waveform model that captures, better than do the waveform models of the prior methods, distortions introduced by receiver timing errors and transmitter/ receiver motions. An LDPC code is commonly represented by use of a bipartite graph containing two sets of nodes. In the graph corresponding to an (n,k) code, the n variable nodes correspond to the code word symbols and the n-k constraint nodes represent the constraints that the code places on the variable nodes in order for them to form a valid code word. The decoding procedure involves iterative computation of values associated with these nodes. A constraint node represents a parity-check equation using a set of variable nodes as inputs. A valid decoded code word is obtained if all parity-check equations are satisfied. After each iteration, the metrics associated with each constraint node can be evaluated to determine the status of the associated parity check. Heretofore, normally, these metrics would be utilized only within the LDPC decoding process to assess whether or not variable nodes had converged to a codeword. In the present method, it is recognized that these metrics can be used to determine accuracy of the timing estimates used in acquiring the sampled data that constitute the input to the LDPC decoder. In fact, the number of constraints that are satisfied exhibits a peak near the optimal timing estimate. Coarse timing estimation (or first-stage estimation as described below) is found via a parametric search for this peak. The present method calls for a two-stage receiver architecture illustrated in the figure. The first stage would correct large time delays and frequency offsets; the second stage would track random walks and correct residual time and frequency offsets. In the first stage, constraint-node feedback from the LDPC decoder would be employed in a search algorithm in which the searches would be performed in successively narrower windows to find the correct time delay and/or frequency offset. The second stage would include a conventional first-order PLL with a decision-aided timing-error detector that would utilize, as its decision aid, decoded symbols from the LDPC decoder. The method has been tested by means of computational simulations in cases involving various timing and frequency errors. The results of the simulations ined in the ideal case of perfect timing in the receiver.
Jones, Christopher↗
Visible and infrared techniques for flash flood, hydrological, and agricultural applications
A common requirement of these agriculture, climatology and hydrology fields is the accurate and timely estimation of precipitation. Yet, it is often difficult to obtain such estimates by conventional means. The advent of satellite remote sensing however has opened the possibility of making rain estimates over time and space scale never before available. A computer automated technique that estimates a summertime convective rainfall from the thermal infrared imagery of geosynchronous satellites is reviewed.
Scofield, R. A.↗
Carbon exchange between the mantle and the crust, and its effect upon the atmosphere - Today compared to archean time
Estimates of the midocean ridge mantle carbon flux, whose exchange of carbon with the earth's surface has over geological time influenced atmospheric CO2, can be made by estimating concentration ratios of carbon to helium in hydrothermal fluids and tholeiitic glasses, followed by their multiplication by the oceanic primordial He-3 flux. A net carbon flux from the mantle of 1 billion moles/yr would require less than 700 million years to generate the present day crustal carbon inventory. It is deduced that the atmosphere of 3 billion years ago contained at least two orders of magnitude more CO2 than it does today.
Des Marais, D. J.↗
Flight Planning in the Cloud
This new interface will enable Principal Investigators (PIs), as well as UAVSAR (Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar) members to do their own flight planning and time estimation without having to request flight lines through the science coordinator. It uses an all-in-one Google Maps interface, a JPL hosted database, and PI flight requirements to design an airborne flight plan. The application will enable users to see their own flight plan being constructed interactively through a map interface, and then the flight planning software will generate all the files necessary for the flight. Afterward, the UAVSAR team can then complete the flight request, including calendaring and supplying requisite flight request files in the expected format for processing by NASA s airborne science program. Some of the main features of the interface include drawing flight lines on the map, nudging them, adding them to the current flight plan, and reordering them. The user can also search and select takeoff, landing, and intermediate airports. As the flight plan is constructed, all of its components are constantly being saved to the database, and the estimated flight times are updated. Another feature is the ability to import flight lines from previously saved flight plans. One of the main motivations was to make this Web application as simple and intuitive as possible, while also being dynamic and robust. This Web application can easily be extended to support other airborne instruments.
Flores, Sarah L.↗
Assessment of Evolving TRMM-Based Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Methods and Their Impacts on Hydrologic Prediction in a High-Latitude Basin
The real-time availability of satellite-derived precipitation estimates provides hydrologists an opportunity to improve current hydrologic prediction capability for medium to large river basins. Due to the availability of new satellite data and upgrades to the precipitation algorithms, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time estimates (TMPA-RT) have been undergoing several important revisions over the past ten years. In this study, the changes of the relative accuracy and hydrologic potential of TMPA-RT estimates over its three major evolving periods were evaluated and inter-compared at daily, monthly and seasonal scales in the high-latitude Laohahe basin in China. Assessment results show that the performance of TMPA-RT in terms of precipitation estimation and streamflow simulation was significantly improved after 3 February 2005. Overestimation during winter months was noteworthy and consistent, which is suggested to be a consequence from interference of snow cover to the passive microwave retrievals. Rainfall estimated by the new version 6 of TMPA-RT starting from 1 October 2008 to present has higher correlations with independent gauge observations and tends to perform better in detecting rain compared to the prior periods, although it suffers larger mean error and relative bias. After a simple bias correction, this latest dataset of TMPA-RT exhibited the best capability in capturing hydrologic response among the three tested periods. In summary, this study demonstrated that there is an increasing potential in the use of TMPA-RT in hydrologic streamflow simulations over its three algorithm upgrade periods, but still with significant challenges during the winter snowing events.
hydrologic prediction↗
Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations
A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.
Murphy, K. A.↗
Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations
A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.
Murphy, K. A.↗
Evaluating Precipitation Events Using GPM IMERG 30-Minute Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimates
Accurately detecting and estimating precipitation at near–real time (NRT) is of utmost importance for the early detection and monitoring of hydrometeorological hazards. The precipitation product, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), provides NRT 0.1° and 30-min precipitation estimates across the globe with only a 4-h latency. This study was an evaluation of the GPM IMERG version 6 level-3 early run 30-min precipitation product for precipitation events from 2014 through 2020. The purpose of this research was to identify when, where, and why GPM IMERG misidentified and failed to detect precipitation events in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah in the United States. Precipitation events were identified based on 15-min precipitation from gauges and 30-min precipitation from the IMERG multisatellite constellation. False-positive and false-negative precipitation events were identified and analyzed to determine their characteristics. Precipitation events identified by gauges had longer duration and had higher cumulative precipitation than those identified by GPM IMERG. GPM IMERG had many false event detections during the summer months, suggesting possible virga event detection, which is when precipitation falls from a cloud but evaporates before it reaches the ground. The frequency and timing of the merged passive microwave (PMW) product and forward propagation were responsible for IMERG overestimating cumulative precipitation during some precipitation events and underestimating others. This work can inform experts that are using the GPM IMERG NRT product to be mindful of situations where GPM IMERG–estimated precipitation events may not fully resolve the hydrometeorological conditions driving these hazards.
Jessica R P Sutton↗
A neighboring optimum feedback control scheme based on estimated time-to-go with application to re-entry flight paths.
Neighboring optimum feedback control scheme based on estimated time-to-go applied to reentry flight paths
Bryson, A. E., Jr.↗
Seasat altimeter timing bias estimation
A technique developed for the solution of time lag bias based on the analysis of sea surface height discrepancies at ground track intersections, prompted by the presence of a time calibration bias in Seasat altimeter data that produced measurement errors in excess of 1 m, is shown to yield a separation of the dominant, once-per-revolution ephemeris error amounting to about 1.5 m rms from the timing error signature. The technique does not depend on precise geoid data, and in application to a global Seasat altimeter data set covering July 28-August 9, 1978, has yielded a time lag value of -81.0 + or - 2 msec. This corroborates the -79.4 msec revised value derived from a reexamination of internal instrument time delays.
Marsh, J. G.↗
A real-time recursive filter for the attitude determination of the Spacelab instrument pointing subsystem
A real-time estimation filter which reduces sensitivity to system variations and reduces the amount of preflight computation is developed for the instrument pointing subsystem (IPS). The IPS is a three-axis stabilized platform developed to point various astronomical observation instruments aboard the shuttle. Currently, the IPS utilizes a linearized Kalman filter (LKF), with premission defined gains, to compensate for system drifts and accumulated attitude errors. Since the a priori gains are generated for an expected system, variations result in a suboptimal estimation process. This report compares the performance of three real-time estimation filters with the current LKF implementation. An extended Kalman filter and a second-order Kalman filter are developed to account for the system nonlinearities, while a linear Kalman filter implementation assumes that the nonlinearities are negligible. The performance of each of the four estimation filters are compared with respect to accuracy, stability, settling time, robustness, and computational requirements. It is shown, that for the current IPS pointing requirements, the linear Kalman filter provides improved robustness over the LKF with less computational requirements than the two real-time nonlinear estimation filters.
West, M. E.↗
Evaluation of Temporal Spacing Errors Associated with Interval Management Algorithms
This paper seeks to characterize the temporal spacing errors resulting from the use of Interval Management (IM) algorithms. The focus of the current paper is IM concepts and algorithms that realize a specified temporal spacing between a Target aircraft and an Ownship aircraft at the runway threshold. The paper presents an IM algorithm consisting of the following four modules: (i) Target-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (ii) Ownship-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (iii) Ownship Speed Command Computation Module, and (iv) Ownship Thrust Command Computation Module. The overall guidance module is evaluated on a simulation that models aircraft point-mass dynamics, bank-angle auto-pilot dynamics, pitch-axis auto-pilot dynamics, and engine lag dynamics. The simulation environment also consists of actual atmospheric forecasts and realistic spatio-temporally correlated wind uncertainty models. Results obtained from single case simulation as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are presented in the paper. The modeled scenario consisted of an A320 Target equipped with “Lateral Navigation”/“Vertical Navigation” (LNAV/VNAV) capabilities followed by an A320 Ownship equipped with the IM algorithm. Both aircraft fly the BIGSUR route to SFO airport using a RAP-13 1-hr wind forecast. 500 Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted with realistic wind uncertainty models. The IM algorithm for this case is seen to have a 90% probability landing time error range of 5.9 seconds, compared to the no-IM solution, which has a 90% probability landing time error range of 33.4 seconds.
Bai, Xiaoli↗
Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation
A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.
Grauer, Jared A.↗
Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics
Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.
neuromuscular systems↗
Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding
The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method.
Harris, Regina↗