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DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

IC Project: The Role of Compressibility in Regulating Magnetic Energy Conversion in Reconnection Processes with Turbulence and Implications for Particle Transport and Energization

Diagnostics for the contribution of different regions in low-energy injection: a) Distribution function for the time duration of E > B particles within E > B regions. The estimated time limits for achieving injection are labeled; b) Distribution of energy gain during injection (for E > B particles) for E > B regions (blue), before E > B crossing (red), and outside E > B regions after the first crossing (black); c) Spectra for self-consistent particles (blue), test-particles that do not see electric fields in E > B regions (red) and test-particles with a resetting energy approach (green).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synchrophasors-based Master State Awareness Estimator for Cybersecurity in Power Grid: Testbed Implementation & Field Demonstration

The integration of distributed energy resources(DERs) and expansion of complex network in the distribution grid requires an advanced distributed state estimator to monitor the grid health at micro-level. The distribution state estimator will improve the situational awareness and resiliency of distributed power system. This paper proposes a synchrophasors-based master state awareness (MSA) estimator to enhance the cybersecurity in distribution grid by providing a real-time estimation of system operating states to control center operators. In this paper, the proposed MSA estimator utilizes only phasor measurements, bus magnitudes and angles, from phasor measurement units (PMUs),deployed in local substations, to estimate the system states and also detects data integrity attacks, such as load tripping attack that disconnects the load. To validate the proof of concept, we implement the proposed methodology in cyber-physical testbed environment at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Electric Grid Security Testbed. Further, to address the “valley of death” and support technology commercialization, field demonstration is also performed at the Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex(CITRC) at the INL. Our experimental results reveal a promising performance in detecting load tripping attack and providing an accurate situational awareness through an alert visualization dashboard in real-time

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Heat Exchanger-Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage System

The purpose of this study is to experimentally investigate the thermal performance of an innovative thermal energy storage (TES) system that combines the advantages of the phase-change material (PCM)/graphite foam latent heat TES medium developed at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and the internally supported plate-fin (ISPE) cell architecture heat transfer fluid (HTF) flow channels developed at Brayton Energy (Brayton). Several essential tasks were accomplished: (1) Thermal property characterization. Thermal properties of the graphite foam were characterized, providing necessary data for experimental result analysis and numerical simulation. (2) Design and optimization of lab-scale test module. Based on Brayton’s full-scale heat exchanger (HX)-TES system, the experimental test module was designed, optimized, and fabricated. (3) Thermal performance testing and data analysis. Five cycle tests were successfully conducted—including one with approximately 3.5 psig of pressure applied to the diaphragms—to investigate the thermal performance of the experimental test module for charging and discharging. Temperature profiles were generated for each charging test and discharging test as a function of time. The temperature profiles clearly show three TES stages: sensible heat (temperature increase), latent heat (melting), and sensible heat (temperature increase) for the charging process. Similarly, the temperature profiles clearly show three thermal energy release stages: sensible heat (temperature decrease), latent heat (solidification), and sensible heat (temperature decrease). Melting and solidification of the PCM generally occurred in relatively narrow temperature ranges, indicated by the flattened temperature regions in the temperature profiles. These phase changes ranged approximately 3°C for melting and 3.5°C for solidification. The charging and discharging temperature profiles were similar for similar experimental parameter tests whether or not pressure was applied to the diaphragm to eliminate the gap between the HX surface and the TES subsystem. This indicates that the effect of a small gap between the HX surface and the TES subsystem is insignificant for charging and discharging. (4) Comparison of experimental data and simulation results. We compared the experimental data to the numerical simulation results. Numerical simulations were conducted by using the ANSYS FLUENT 2019 R3 commercial computational fluid dynamics software. The predicted phase-change times agreed reasonably well with those from the experimental data. In most cases, the estimated time differences between the relative phase changes were within 16%. The predicted start and end times for the charging process agreed well with those from the experimental data. However, the simulation results showed earlier start and end times than the experimental data for the discharging process. Overall, the experimental data and its comparison with the simulation predictions verified the technical viability of the integrated ISPF HX-PCM/graphite foam latent-heat TES system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Online State Estimation for Time-Varying Systems

The paper investigates the problem of estimating the state of a time-varying system with a linear measurement model; in particular, the paper considers the case where the number of measurements available can be smaller than the number of states. In lieu of a batch linear least-squares (LS) approach well-suited for static networks, where a sufficient number of measurements could be collected to obtain a full-rank design matrix the paper proposes an online algorithm to estimate the possibly time-varying state by processing measurements as and when available. The design of the algorithm hinges on a generalized LS cost augmented with a proximal-point-type regularization. With the solution of the regularized LS problem available in closed-form, the online algorithm is written as a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and based on the new available measurements. Conditions under which the algorithmic steps are in fact a contractive mapping are shown, and bounds on the estimation error are derived for different noise models. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Residential and Small Commercial Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Permitting, Inspection, and Interconnection Timelines: A Retrospective Review (2017-2023)

This report is part of the ongoing Solar Time-Based Residential Analytics and Cycle Time Estimator (SolarTRACE) project, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The SolarTRACE project utilizes time-stamped project-level data provided by installer-partners to assess nationwide and AHJ- and utility-level PI&I and other solar PV adoption timelines since 2017. Our dataset now covers 22% of residential solar and 33% of residential storage installs in the U.S. since 2017. This report provides an update to our previous 2022 report (Cruce et al., 2022b) and includes: updated 2017 2023 project timelines for residential rooftop solar PV up to 20kW; updated tracking of permitting process changes at nearly 4,000 AHJs nationwide; and first-ever reporting of timelines for residential PV+storage projects up to 20kW.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Performance Simulation of Dynamic Hydrologic Exchange and Implications for Surrogate Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling in a Large River Corridor

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) have environmental significance in riverine ecosystems. Key river channel factors that influence the spatial and temporal variations of HEFs include river stage, riverbed morphology, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity. However, their impacts on HEFs were often evaluated independently or on small scales. In this study, we numerically evaluated the combined interactions of these factors on HEFs using a high-performance simulator, PFLOTRAN, for subsurface flow and transport. The model covers 51 square kilometers of a selected river corridor with large sinuosity along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington, US. Three years of spatially distributed hourly river stages were applied to the riverbed. Compared to the simulation when riverbed heterogeneity is not ignored, the simulation using homogeneous riverbed conductivity underestimated HEFs, especially upwelling from lateral features, and overestimated the mean residence times derived from particle tracking. To derive a surrogate model for the river corridor, we amended the widely used transient storage model (TSM) for riverine solute study at reach scale with reactions. By treating the whole river corridor as a batch reactor, the temporal changes in the exchange rate coefficient for the TSM were derived from the dynamic residence time estimated from the hourly PFLOTRAN results. The TSM results were evaluated against the effective concentrations in the hyporheic zone calculated from the PFLOTRAN simulations. Our results show that there is potential to parameterize surrogate models such as TSM amended with biogeochemical reactions while incorporating small-scale process understandings and the signature of time-varying streamflow to advance the mechanistic understanding of river corridor processes at reach to watershed scales. However, the assumption of a well-mixed storage zone for TSM should be revisited when redox-sensitive reactions in the storage zones play important roles in river corridor functioning.

Fang, Yilin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Denoising Seismic Waveforms Using a Wavelet-Transform-Based Machine-Learning Method

Seismic waveform data recorded at stations can be thought of as a superposition of the signal from a source of interest and noise from other sources. Frequency‐based filtering methods for waveform denoising do not result in desired outcomes when the targeted signal and noise occupy similar frequency bands. Recently, denoising techniques based on deep‐learning convolutional neural networks (CNNs), in which a recorded waveform is decomposed into signal and noise components, have led to improved results. These CNN methods, which use short‐time Fourier transform representations of the time series, provide signal and noise masks for the input waveform. These masks are used to create denoised signal and designaled noise waveforms, respectively. However, advancements in the field of image denoising have shown the benefits of incorporating discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) into CNN architectures to create multilevel wavelet CNN (MWCNN) models. The MWCNN model preserves the details of the input due to the good time–frequency localization of the DWT. In this report we use a data set of over 382,000 constructed seismograms recorded by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations network to compare the performance of CNN and MWCNN‐based denoising models. Evaluation of both models on constructed test data shows that the MWCNN model outperforms the CNN model in the ability to recover the ground‐truth signal component in terms of both waveform similarity and preservation of amplitude information. Model evaluation of real‐world data shows that both the CNN and MWCNN models outperform standard band‐pass filtering (BPF; average improvement in signal‐to‐noise ratio of 9.6 and 19.7 dB, respectively, with respect to BPF). Evaluation of continuous data suggests the MWCNN denoiser can improve both signal detection capabilities and phase arrival time estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Riverscape heterogeneity in estimated Chinook Salmon emergence phenology and implications for size and growth

Abstract Many salmonid‐bearing rivers exhibit thermal and hydrologic heterogeneity at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but how this translates into spatiotemporal patterns of fry emergence is poorly understood. Understanding this variability is important because emergence timing determines the biophysical conditions fish first experience (e.g., temperature, flow, and food supply), thereby influencing growth opportunities and survival during this critical life stage. We predicted spring Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) emergence phenology across four northeastern Oregon subbasins over 5–9 years using empirical spawning and temperature data. We then related interannual emergence timing estimates to juvenile salmon size and growth rates at consistent sampling locations. There were clear longitudinal patterns of predicted emergence timing in each subbasin: The shape of these patterns was consistent among years, but not among subbasins. In two subbasins, emergence occurred progressively later with distance upstream, whereas in the other two subbasins emergence was earliest at upstream sites. Within each year, median emergence dates among sites within each subbasin ranged between 44 and 58 days. This spatial variation was comparable to interannual variation, with median emergence dates for a given location in each subbasin ranging between 47 and 74 days among years. Contrary to our expectations, juvenile salmon were not larger in years with earlier emergence, owing to slower estimated spring and summer growth rates compared to years with later emergence. Despite large interannual variation in estimated emergence dates, these results suggest that other factors (e.g., stream flow, temperature, and density‐dependence) were more important than growth duration in determining juvenile salmon growth rates and size among years. We demonstrated considerable spatial and interannual variation in emergence phenology within these subbasins. Understanding how this variation translates to spatiotemporal patterns of juvenile salmon habitat use, growth, and survival has important implications for guiding restoration efforts and understanding how climate change may impact these populations.

Kaylor, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Voltage Probability Density Function Shaping Control Strategy Considering Grid Operational Uncertainties

It is well-known that power systems operation always affected by various uncertainties which make the bus voltage a random process that can be characterized by its probability density function (PDF) at any time instant. In this context, this paper presents a novel PDF-based voltage control framework for power systems. By modeling voltage as a stochastic process, we formulate a stochastic differential equationthat captures grid uncertainties. The associated Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is derived to describe the evolution of the voltage PDF, which enables the formulation of a PDF-shaping control strategy. To simplify the PDF control formulation, a B-spline neural network is introduced for real-time estimation and regulation of the voltage distribution. The proposed PDF control law updates voltage references for energy storage systems and synchronous generators using real-time PDF measurements and feedback signals. The proposed method is validated on a modified Kundur’s two-area system. Simulation results demonstrate that the controller can significantly improve the voltage stability under stochastic conditions, highlighting its effectiveness in modern inverter-rich grids.

Gui, Yonghao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000250435534)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive job and resource management for the growing quantum cloud

As the popularity of quantum computing continues to grow, efficient quantum machine access over the cloud is critical to both academic and industry researchers across the globe. And as cloud quantum computing demands increase exponentially, the analysis of resource consumption and execution characteristics are key to efficient management of jobs and resources at both the vendor-end as well as the client-end. While the analysis and optimization of job / resource consumption and management are popular in the classical HPC domain, it is severely lacking for more nascent technology like quantum computing.This paper proposes optimized adaptive job scheduling to the quantum cloud taking note of primary characteristics such as queuing times and fidelity trends across machines, as well as other characteristics such as quality of service guarantees and machine calibration constraints. Key components of the proposal include a) a prediction model which predicts fidelity trends across machine based on compiled circuit features such as circuit depth and different forms of errors, as well as b) queuing time prediction for each machine based on execution time estimations. Altogether, this proposal is evaluated on simulated IBM machines across a diverse set of quantum applications and system loading scenarios, and is able to reduce wait times by over 3x and improve fidelity by over 40% on specific usecases, when compared to traditional job schedulers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Onset of magma ocean solidification on Mars inferred from Mn-Cr chronometry

The mantle of Mars probably differentiated through the crystallization of a magma ocean during the first tens of million years (Ma) of Solar System evolution. However, the exact timescale of large-scale silicate differentiation of the martian mantle is debated, and in particular, it remains unclear when differentiation commenced. In this paper, we applied the short-lived 53 Mn- 53 Cr system to martian meteorites in order to date the onset of large-scale mantle differentiation on Mars. The new Cr isotope data demonstrate that martian meteorites exhibit no resolvable radiogenic 53 Cr variations, and instead have a uniform +20.2±1.2 (95% conf.) parts-per-million excess in 53 Cr/ 52 Cr relative to the terrestrial mantle. The investigated groups of martian meteorites are lithologically varied and derive from diverse mantle sources that probably had variable Mn/Cr. Hence, the lack of 53 Cr variability among martian meteorites demonstrates that silicate differentiation on Mars occurred after the extinction of 53 Mn. Provided that the sources of the martian meteorites have Mn/Cr variations that are typical of the terrestrial planets, this result implies that the onset of large-scale silicate differentiation must have occurred later than 20±5 Ma after Solar System formation. The onset of silicate differentiation on Mars inferred here is significantly later than time estimates for segregation of the martian core which conservatively occurred within <10 Ma after Solar System formation. Thus, the new Mn-Cr data imply that there was a small, but resolvable, time gap of at least 5 Ma between core formation and magma ocean solidification on Mars. If the age of core segregation is taken at face value, our results imply that the martian magma ocean remained mostly molten over several Ma. This inferred longevity of the magma ocean is inconsistent with thermal models predicting rapid (<1 Ma) solidification of the martian magma ocean. Although there is currently no unique solution to this conundrum, our results can potentially be explained by a protracted history of impact bombardment that delayed differentiation in a shallow magma ocean on Mars, or perhaps more readily, by the presence of an early and dense atmosphere that acted as an insulator and prevented the magma ocean from cooling quickly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗

DOE OSTI2021

wtDigiTwin (Wind Turbine Digital Twin) [SWR-21-15]

This wind turbine digital twin software (wtDigiTwin) provides a digital twin solution for wind turbine applications. The focus of wtDigiTwin is to estimate loads, motions and environmental conditions for an operating wind turbine. The program uses supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements as inputs, together with a wind turbine model. The wind industry is currently challenged by the high cost of operation and maintenance. These costs could be mitigated if component failures are predicted, but such predictions are difficult unless the turbines are equipped with expensive measuring devices. The alternative is to use a digital twin such as wtDigiTwin to estimate the necessary signals. wtDigiTwin can perform online prediction of signals that are otherwise not measured, using a limited set of reliable measurements and a physics-based model. The predicted signals can be used in applications that have direct cost benefits: 1) real-time estimation of the fatigue consumption of key components of the wind turbine; 2) root cause analyses and failure detections ; 3) lifetime reassessments ; 4) improvements to follow-on designs. The current version provides examples to estimate wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and tower loads on an onshore wind turbine using the following measurements tower top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The model combines a linear state-space model, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The state space model is obtained either using OpenFAST linearizations, or using the yams package provided with the software.

Branlard, Emmanuel↗