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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Murphy, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration

The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.

Chelton, Dudley B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Hihn, Jairus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimators and Fusers for Fiber Delay Estimation Using Environmental Measurements

The properties of deployed network fiber are affected by environmental factors due to their exposure to the elements. Particularly for quantum networks, the resultant delay variations may have significant impacts due to the extreme sensitivity of synchronization, coincidence counting, and other critical operations. In this paper, the delays of 15 km aerial-inground fiber connections are measured, and effects due to temperature, humidity and wind speed are analyzed over multiple periods spanning four seasons of a year. Machine learning methods are first utilized to reveal surprisingly pronounced effects of humidity on the delay, in addition to the expected temperature and its seasonal variations. Estimator and fusion methods are developed to estimate the delay using temperature, humidity and wind speed measurements, by utilizing smooth Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and nonsmooth Ensemble of Trees (EOT) methods. Measurements from winter and summer periods are temporally fused using twelve different methods, and eight methods provide estimates for the delay throughout the year with median test errors under 1.28%. The results reveal distinct temperature-humidity trends across the seasons, and the ability of estimator and temporal fusion methods to exploit them for estimating the delay. These results constitute a case study of machine learning analytical results, wherein generalization equations explain the performance of various estimator and fuser methods.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Roles of Dynamic State Estimation in Power System Modeling, Monitoring and Operation

—Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability, scalability, and affordability of computing and communications. This paper discusses the advantages of DSE as compared to static state estimation, and the implementation differences between the two, including the measurement configuration, modeling framework and support software features. The important roles of DSE are discussed from modeling, monitoring and operation aspects for today’s synchronous machine dominated systems and the future power electronics-interfaced generation systems. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the benefits of DSE on enhancing the operational robustness and resilience of 21st century power system through time critical applications. Future research directions are identified and discussed, paving the way for developing the next generation of energy management systems.

Zhao, Junbo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Vadose Zone Flow Properties at the 100 K-East Soil Flushing Site Using ERT Monitoring Data: 2023 Interim Report - 100 KE Soil Property Estimation

In situ soil flushing is being using at the Hanford 100 K-East (100 KE) area to transport mobile chromium contamination in the vadose zone to the water table, where it can be collected and treat through pump and treat operations. The efficacy of soil flushing is directly related to the volume of clean water that infiltrates through contaminated soils. In practice, it is infeasible to comprehensively monitor which regions of the vadose zone are being infiltrated through direct sampling of pore water. Consequently, there can be significant uncertainty about which regions of the subsurface have been treated, especially if hydrogeologic conditions are favorable for the development of unstable flows and preferred flow pathways through the vadose zone (Jarvis, Koestel, and Larsbo 2016). Current approaches for quantitative monitoring of soil flushing performance rely on contaminant concentration measurements collected from extractions wells. There is no quantitative information on the volume of flush water delivered to targeted regions of the vadose zone at the Hanford Site, leading to significant uncertainty regarding source term removal and long-term impacts to groundwater. If the subsurface hydrogeologic properties at the 100 KE Area were adequately known, qualitative metrics of soil flushing performance could be simulated, thereby negating expenses required to obtain quantitative performance information through borehole drilling/sampling. However, estimating in situ hydrogeologic properties has long proven elusive, due primarily to a lack of sufficient information to constrain heterogeneous property estimates to a useful degree of certainty. Estimating vadose zone hydrogeologic properties is particularly challenging due the dependence of hydraulic conductivity on saturation. This report describes progress toward a first-of-its-kind demonstration using surface time-lapse 3D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring data to estimate the hydrogeologic properties that control flush water transport at the 100 KE soil flushing site. The ultimate objective is (1) to verify sufficient information exists in the ERT monitoring data to adequately resolve vadose zone hydraulic properties, and (2) generate a “digital twin” (i.e., a numerical simulator) that can be used to simulate the amount of flush water that has been delivered to each targeted region of the vadose zone, and thereby assess the efficacy of flush water delivery. Resulting performance estimates can be used in leu of comprehensive borehole drilling and direct sampling (or wellbore logging) that would otherwise be required to obtain the same information.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1975

J-Adaptive estimation with estimated noise statistics

The J-Adaptive estimator described by Jazwinski and Hipkins (1972) is extended to include the simultaneous estimation of the statistics of the unmodeled system accelerations. With the aid of simulations it is demonstrated that the J-Adaptive estimator with estimated noise statistics can automatically estimate satellite orbits to an accuracy comparable with the data noise levels, when excellent, continuous tracking coverage is available. Such tracking coverage will be available from satellite-to-satellite tracking.

Jazwinski, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Vehicle Pose Estimation via Optical Correlation and Nonlinear Estimation

A technique for 6-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) pose estimation of space vehicles is being developed. This technique draws upon recent developments in implementing optical correlation measurements in a nonlinear estimator, which relates the optical correlation measurements to the pose states (orientation and position). For the optical correlator, the use of both conjugate filters and binary, phase-only filters in the design of synthetic discriminant function (SDF) filters is explored. A static neural network is trained a priori and used as the nonlinear estimator. New commercial animation and image rendering software is exploited to design the SDF filters and to generate a large filter set with which to train the neural network. The technique is applied to pose estimation for rendezvous and docking of free-flying spacecraft and to terrestrial surface mobility systems for NASA's Vision for Space Exploration. Quantitative pose estimation performance will be reported. Advantages and disadvantages of the implementation of this technique are discussed.

Rakoczy, John↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space Vehicle Pose Estimation via Optical Correlation and Nonlinear Estimation

A technique for 6-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) pose estimation of space vehicles is being developed. This technique draws upon recent developments in implementing optical correlation measurements in a nonlinear estimator, which relates the optical correlation measurements to the pose states (orientation and position). For the optical correlator, the use of both conjugate filters and binary, phase-only filters in the design of synthetic discriminant function (SDF) filters is explored. A static neural network is trained a priori and used as the nonlinear estimator. New commercial animation and image rendering software is exploited to design the SDF filters and to generate a large filter set with which to train the neural network. The technique is applied to pose estimation for rendezvous and docking of free-flying spacecraft and to terrestrial surface mobility systems for NASA's Vision for Space Exploration. Quantitative pose estimation performance will be reported. Advantages and disadvantages of the implementation of this technique are discussed.

Rakoczy, John M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

REFAME: Rain Estimation Using Forward Adjusted-Advection of Microwave Estimates

Sensors flying on satellites provide the only practical means of estimating the precipitation that falls over the entire globe, particularly across the vast unpopulated expanses of Earth s oceans. The sensors that observe the Earth using microwave frequencies provide the best data, but currently these are mounted only on satellites flying in "low Earth orbit". Such satellites constantly move across the Earth s surface, providing snapshots of any given location every 12-36 hours. The entire constellation of low-orbit satellites numbers less than a dozen, and their orbits are not coordinated, so a location will frequently go two or more hours between snapshots. "Geosynchronous Earth orbit" (GEO) satellites continuously observe the same region of the globe, allowing them to provide very frequent pictures. For example, the "satellite movies" shown on television come from GEO satellites. However, the sensors available on GEO satellites cannot match the skill of the low-orbit microwave sensors in estimating precipitation. It is perhaps obvious that scientists should try to combine these very different kinds of data, taking advantage of the strengths of each, but this simple concept has proved to be a huge challenge. The scheme in this paper is "Lagrangian", meaning we follow the storm systems, rather than being tied to a fixed grid of boxes on the Earth s surface. Whenever a microwave snapshot occurs, we gladly use the resulting precipitation estimate. Then at all the times between the microwave snapshots we force the storm system to make a smooth transition from one snapshot s values to the next. We know that a lot more changes occur between the snapshots, but this smooth transition the best we can do with the microwave data alone. The key new contribution in this paper is that we also look at the relative variations in the GEO estimates during these in-between times and force the estimated changes in the precipitation to have similar variations. Preliminary testing shows that this approach has enough promise that it should be developed and studied.

Behrangi, Ali↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Modeling using Output-Error Parameter Estimation based on Frequency Responses Estimated with Multisine Inputs

A method is developed for estimating model parameters, such as nondimensional stability and control derivatives, by fitting transfer function or state-space models to empirical frequency response data using the output-error approach. The frequency response data were computed using Fourier transforms of measured input and output data. The control surfaces were excited with periodic multisine inputs which facilitated time-ecient estimation of multiple-input multiple-output frequency responses. The method was applied to lateral data from a nonlinear flight dynamics simulation of the F-16 aircraft, and to longitudinal data from multiple repeated flight test maneuvers of the NASA T-2 subscale aircraft. Results using simulation data showed the frequency response method compared well to other standard methods for parameter estimation. In addition to including all the available inputs, outputs, and harmonic frequencies in the estimation, relatively small subsets of the measured data could also be used to focus on identifying specific parts of the model. Results from flight test data showed that parameter estimates and uncertainties determined from repeated maneuvers were accurate and in statistical agreement with each other.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimates of Damped Energy Spread and Emittance in a Two Energy Storage Ring Cooler

In this paper we provide estimates of the damped energy spread and emittance in a two-energy storage ring cooler. Two energy storage rings have two loops at markedly different energies, one at low energy and the other at high energy. In a cooling application the low energy ring has a cooling section to cool the ion beam and the high energy ring may have a wiggler section to enhance the damping effect on electron beam. The linear optics in the cooling section is designed to attain the maximum cooling of ion beams. Similarly, the linear optics in the wiggler section is designed to attained the required equilibrium emittance and energy spread. Hence, the radiation events in these two rings are different and independent. Since the values of damped energy spread and emittance depend on a range of parameters related to lattice design and rings energies, we present analytical calculations along with simulation results to estimate the values of damped energy spread and emittance in a two energy storage ring cooler.

Dhital, B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

CO₂ Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO₂-SCREEN) User’s Manual

This user’s manual guides the use of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) CO₂ Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO₂-SCREEN) tool, which was developed to aid users screening geologic formations for prospective CO₂ storage resources. This manual is specific to the CO₂-SCREEN 4.0 version which is based in Python. CO₂-SCREEN applies U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) methods and equations for estimating prospective CO₂ storage resources for saline formations, shale formations, and residual oil zones (ROZ). CO₂-SCREEN was developed to be substantive and user-friendly and provide a consistent method for calculating prospective CO₂ storage resources. CO₂-SCREEN uses a Java based graphical user interface for data inputs and uses Python to calculate prospective CO₂ storage resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diesel Fuel Consumption in Prominent U.S. Open-Pit Mines: Site-Level Estimates

This report presents a comprehensive framework for estimating diesel fuel consumption and prices at open-pit mines in the United States. The framework includes transparent methods for calculating site-level diesel energy use when direct reporting is unavailable, and a structured confidence evaluation for each method. The framework is demonstrated to estimate current diesel consumption at 21 open-pit mines in the United States. Initial findings support ongoing efforts to strengthen the competitiveness and security of the U.S. industrial base by supporting data-driven supply chain analysis and decision-making, improved transparency in mining sector energy use, and targeted deployment of energy innovation and cost-reduction strategies. Future updates to the dataset—coupled with expanded data transparency and method validation—will help ensure that the findings remain relevant as the sector continues to evolve.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning Spectral Templates for Photometric Redshift Estimation from Broadband Photometry

Estimating redshifts from broadband photometry is often limited by how accurately we can map the colors of galaxies to an underlying spectral template. Current techniques utilize spectrophotometric samples of galaxies or spectra derived from spectral synthesis models. Both of these approaches have their limitations: either the sample sizes are small and often not representative of the diversity of galaxy colors, or the model colors can be biased (often as a function of wavelength), which introduces systematics in the derived redshifts. In this paper, we learn the underlying spectral energy distributions from an ensemble of ∼100 K galaxies with measured redshifts and colors. We show that we are able to reconstruct emission and absorption lines at a significantly higher resolution than the broadband filters used to measure the photometry for a sample of 20 spectral templates. We find that our training algorithm reduces the fraction of outliers in the derived photometric redshifts by up to 28%, bias up to 91%, and scatter up to 25%, when compared to estimates using a standard set of spectral templates. We discuss the current limitations of this approach and its applicability for recovering the underlying properties of galaxies. Our derived templates and the code used to produce these results are publicly available in a dedicated Github repository: https://github.com/dirac-institute/photoz-template-learning.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗