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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

sampling bias↗
DOE OSTI2026

A worldwide climatology of extreme air masses

Extreme temperature events are among the most damaging weather phenomena. In a warming world, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes are expected in most regions in the future, a trade-off that warrants further understanding of such events. Here, we track and analyze large, persistent areas of hot and cold extreme temperatures in parallel, relative to the location and time of year, to quantify overall regional exposure to extreme temperatures. To accomplish this, we compare the frequencies, movements, trends, and sources/sinks in each type of extreme air mass, calling them extreme cold or extreme hot air masses (ECAMs/EHAMs). For most land regions, ECAMs occur more often than EHAMs, and ECAMs are more common in each hemisphere’s winter, when cold-air advection is strongest and most widespread. Average movement of ECAMs has a stronger equatorward component in winter than in summer, while movement of EHAMs is eastward all year, with less meridional movement than ECAMs. EHAMs have become more common almost everywhere on land, and the reverse is true for ECAMs, with the strongest trends in the northern hemisphere occurring in autumn, especially in the Arctic. The number of EHAMs around the world is increasing at a higher rate (+ 2.32 events/year) than ECAM numbers are decreasing (-1.27 events/year), causing a net increase in extremes, especially in some midlatitude regions. These results help to document the different processes driving hot and cold extremes, and thus the asymmetric and regionally varying trends in frequency for extreme air masses.

Ryan, James M↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tropicalization of Temperate Ecosystems in North America: The Northward Range Expansion of Tropical Organisms in Response to Warming Winter Temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental Capabilities and Achievements of the Space Environment Dynamometer (SED)

The Space Environment Dynamometer (SED) chamber was designed to conduct research in cryobotics; an area of study that focuses on robotic systems and rotating machinery operating in extreme cold environments including Earth, low Earth orbit, Mars, Moon, asteroids, Solar orbit, planetary orbit, or those encountered during travel among these destinations. The test chamber incorporates a modular dynamometer, consisting of a variety of brakes, torque sensors and motors to be easily interchanged between tests. Each test employs a unique test profile that incorporates different setpoints of applied torques and velocities for a given period or number of rev- olutions. The modularity of the dynamometer setup allows for any combination of motor, gearbox to be tested. This chamber is one of a kind and resides at the Swamp Works facility within the Granular Mechanics and Regolith Operations laboratory (GMRO) at NASA Kennedy Space Center. Other cold chambers exist, however they are project specific and do not simultaneously output real time torque, temperature and efficiency data. The modularity of this extreme cold environment test chamber, coupled with the custom software and instrumentation, makes it one of a kind. The chamber is capable of stabilizing cryogenic temperatures and pressures to commensurate moon environments. Tests have successfully been conducted on motors and gearboxes for various cryogenic temperature set points, torques, and angular velocities. Relevant internal temperatures of the test article and chamber were recorded using a variety of temperature sensors. The temperature setpoints, on the motors and gearboxes tested, were stabilized by using PID gain scheduling of the PWM signal for the various heaters. The heat removal for the motor was provided by creating a thermally conductive path from a cryohead directly to the test article using copper straps. A variety of strainwave gears (SWGs), also known as Harmonic drives, planetary gear systems and DC motor actuator configurations have been tested in the chamber. The experiments performed were for various projects including Bulk Metallic Glass Gears (BMGG), Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER), In-Situ Resource Utilization Pilot Excavator (IPEX) . Various upgrades have been made to the extreme cold environment test chamber for the use of cryobotic research. These upgrades greatly increased the autonomous capabilities of the test set up by providing redundancies in the hardware and software. The redundancies were primarily added to protect the integrity of the cryohead. A new strapping and insulation method was performed to create the thermal conductive path from the actuators to the cryohead. The software was upgraded to include temperature setpoint control, further increasing the autonomous capabilities of the test. This paper goes into detail regarding the upgrades made to the extreme cold environment test chamber, as well as highlights the results from a COLDArm acceptance test.

Casey J. Clark↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-performance windows improve thermal survivability of occupants during cold snaps

Exposure to low indoor air temperature is a major contributor to temperature-related mortality during extreme cold events, especially when power outages disrupt operation of space heating systems. This study explores the impact of high-performance windows on the thermal resilience of residential buildings during extreme cold weather and grid power outages, as well as their long-term benefits through energy efficiency and reduced risk of property damage. Building performance simulations were conducted for reference residential buildings in three construction vintages and two major U.S. cities located in cold climate zones, considering two types of extreme cold events: short and severe, and long and milder. Our research found that even houses compliant with current energy codes struggle to maintain safe indoor temperatures for more than a few hours during power outages, necessitating rapid evacuations. High-performance windows can extend the thermal survivability time by up to 3.8 days within a 7-day cold snap and significantly reduce risk of bursting frozen water pipes, depending on the building’s insulation and infiltration level, cold event severity, and occupant vulnerability. This extended thermal safety time is crucial in scenarios where reduced mobility complicates emergency responses in senior housing. In addition to boosting thermal resilience, upgrading older homes with high-performance windows can reduce heating energy consumption by over 18% and cooling energy by 15%. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate thermal resilience assessments into new designs or major retrofits, including the use of typical and extreme weather scenarios and advanced technologies like high-performance windows.

Krelling, Amanda F↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursors to Extreme Wintertime Cold in the Midwest United States

ABSTRACT Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events that affect millions of people every winter, including those in the US Midwest. Per our criteria (a sufficiently cold event over a wide area and a long period), we identified 43 wintertime CAOs in the Midwest region using data from 1980 to 2021 (approximately one per year). These occurred in the Midwest during three of five North American weather regimes. Two regimes' CAOs are related to a weak stratospheric polar vortex, consistent with previous research on CAOs in the neighbouring Great Plains region. A different regime, characterised by anomalous ridging along the west coast of North America, is the most common for Midwest CAOs, unlike in regions further to the west. Unlike the other two regimes, these so‐called West Coast Ridge CAOs have no clear stratospheric connection. West Coast Ridge CAOs are instead linked to tropospheric processes on synoptic timescales, usually preceded by a weaker than average mid‐tropospheric height gradient in the western Pacific about 10 days prior to CAO onset. Our results demonstrate a particular challenge for predicting some extreme events in the Midwest, with important implications for early warning systems.

Ryan, James M. [Department of Earth and Atmospheri↗
NASA NTRS2005

Experiences issues with plastic parts at cold temperatures

Missions to MARS/planets/asteroids require electronic parts to operate and survive at extreme cold conditions. At extreme cold temperatures many types of cold related failures can occur. Office 514 is currently evaluating plastic parts under various cold temperature conditions and applications. Evaluations, screens, and qualifications are conducted on flight parts.

cold temperatures↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Cryogenic Analog Electronics for Lunar Environment

Assessment of Analog Electronics for Lunar Power Hibernation Non-nuclear robotic spacecraft on the Moon may not reliably operate past the first lunar day due to the subsequent long lunar night with an extreme low temperature range of 50K-100K. To address this concern, the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing a lunar power hibernation protocol that could enable spacecraft to passively survive the lunar night without any additional heating source and then reactivate at lunar dawn. Low cost lunar robotic missions could extend their mission lifetime from a single lunar cycle to potentially many months, thus greatly extending science data gathering and return on investment for commercial missions. This approach centers on evidence that lithium-ion battery cells can recover to full operation after being subjected to cryogenic temperatures. Exploiting this battery capability requires that all spacecraft electronics, including power system and avionics, passively tolerate the extreme cold without degradation. Key elements in the power system will also need to be capable of actively operating in the extreme cold to perform the functions required to restore the system to full operation after solar power returns at lunar dawn. This presentation provides an assessment of extreme-cold tolerance and operational capability of analog electronics where choices in semiconductor material, device type, and circuit fabrication technology has a dramatic impact on circuit behavior and reliability at low temperatures.

Lunar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Site Assessment Report for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chena Site Near Fairbanks, Alaska

This report presents an analysis of the requirements for charging station installation and electric vehicle operation at the US Army Corps of Engineers - Chena Site, located in a cold weather climate in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK. The report includes findings from a site visit, and a detailed electric vehicle (EV) charging site plan with cost estimates. Cost for three 50-ampere pedestal chargers located on the edge of the existing parking lot is estimated at $\$$53,100, and the cost of three 80-ampere chargers is estimated at $\$$89,400. The authors did not assess the cost of a heated garage. The USACE Chena site reaches extreme cold temperatures of -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit) and below in a typical winter, often for days on end. Considerations of operating EVs as well as electrical vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at this site can be applicable to other cold or extremely cold locations. Interviews with EV users in cold climates and a literature review indicated that EVs operate well but have significantly decreased range compared to 21 Degrees Celsius (70 Degrees Fahrenheit) operations. Some strategies such as prewarming the vehicle while it is plugged in and using heated seats and steering wheel instead of cabin heat, can improve cold weather performance. Storing the EV in a garage would mean the battery and cabin are automatically preheated, the battery would not age as rapidly as when the vehicle is stored outside, and problems with charging the vehicle are less likely. Lowest temperate-rated Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), as electric vehicle chargers are known as, are rated to -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit), and sometimes malfunction. No EVSE is rated to the temperatures that USACE Chena site experienced for more than a week in winter 2023-4, of -50 Degrees Celsius (-45 Degrees Fahrenheit) and which are typical for the area. If reliability is a must, entities may want to consider a heated garage to minimize potential problems with charging equipment. There is a companion technical report to this titled "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska" that examines the data on EV and EVSE cold-weather functionality in more detail. (Esparza, Truffer Moudra, and Hodge 2024).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Shaft-Angle Sensor Based on Tunnel-Diode Oscillator

A proposed brushless shaft-angle sensor for use in extreme cold would offer significant advantages over prior such sensors: (1) It would be capable of operating in extreme cold; and (2) Its electronic circuitry would be simpler than that of a permanent-magnet/ multiple-Hall-probe shaft-angle sensor that would otherwise ordinarily be used to obtain comparable angular resolution. The principle of operation of the proposed shaft-angle sensor requires that the shaft (or at least the portion of the shaft at the sensor location) be electrically insulating. The affected portion of the shaft would be coated with metal around half of its circumference. Two half-circular-cylinder electrodes having a radius slightly larger than that of the shaft would be mounted on the stator, concentric with the shaft, so that there would be a small radial gap between them and the outer surface of the shaft. Hence, there would be a capacitance between each stationary electrode and the metal coat on the shaft.

Chui, Talso↗
DOE OSTI2024

Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Would Significantly Affect Climate Extreme Mitigation

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential supplement to mitigate some climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Using Community Earth System Model ensemble simulation results, we analyze the response of temperature and precipitation extremes to two different SAI strategies: one injects SO 2 at the equator to stabilize global mean temperature and the other injects SO 2 at multiple locations to stabilize global mean temperature as well as the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. Our analysis shows that in the late 21st century, compared with the present‐day climate, both equatorial and multi‐location injection lead to reduced hot extremes in the tropics, corresponding to overcooling of the mean climate state. In mid‐to‐high latitude regions, in comparison to the present‐day climate, substantial decreases in cold extremes are observed under both equatorial and multi‐location injection, corresponding to residual winter warming of the mean climate state. Both equatorial and multi‐location injection reduce precipitation extremes in the tropics below the present‐day level, associated with the decrease in mean precipitation. Overall, for most regions, temperature and precipitation extremes show reduced change in response to multi‐location injection than to equatorial injection, corresponding to reduced mean climate change for multi‐location injection. In comparison with equatorial injection, in response to multi‐location injection, most land regions experience fewer years with significant change in cold extremes from the present‐day level, and most tropical regions experience fewer years with significant change in hot extremes. The design of SAI strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate extremes merits further study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Low Temperature Reliability of Electronic Packages/Assemblies for Space Missions

A NASA-wide team, funded under the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program (NEPP), was formed to collaborate and to establish reliability of various electronic parts/packaging and assemblies for operation under extreme cold temperatures. One of the primary objectives of the NEPP is to expedite the infusion of cutting edge technologies into the present and future NASA missions. Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) emerging electronic parts/packages due to their lower weight, increased functionality, and lower cost are excellent candidates for space missions if they are characterized to show that they will meet the stringent reliability and quality requirements. Characterizations, especially for the extreme cold temperatures, are required since very limited data are available by manufacturers or users. For severe military environments, the temperature conditions to -65 C are the lowest temperature for which these parts/packages and assemblies are qualified. New data beyond this relatively benign cold temperature are required for numerous NASA missions. Several parts/packages, based on the project recommendation for their immediate and future needs, were selected for detailed characterization to cold temperature regimes down to liquid nitrogen (-196 C), covering both Mars cold temperature (-125 C) and asteroid (- 180 C) lander environmental requirements. Numerous parts/packages and assemblies were characterized during extreme temperature environmental tests. Several electrical parameters were characterized at discrete temperatures to -185 C to determine if they remain within their specification ranges. Both packages and circuit boards were subjected to nondestructive testing including optical, X-ray, and acoustic microscopy to document their integrity prior to environment exposure. Package/board assemblies were also subjected to X-ray to characterize solder joint integrity including void levels. Both parts and assemblies were subjected to thermal cycling with a large temperature swing enveloping numerous NASA missions. Details of the performed tests and the results obtained are presented.

Patterson, Richard L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity in CMIP6 Models

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker-than-normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. Further, they are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north-shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Sub-Zero Fluid System for Demonstration of Orion's Phase Change Material Heat Exchangers on ISS

NASA's Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle's Exploration Mission 2 is expected to loiter in Lunar orbit for a relatively long period of time. In low Lunar orbit (LLO) the thermal environment is cyclic - extremely cold in the eclipse and relatively hot near the subsolar point. Phase change material heat exchangers (PCM HXs) are the best option for long term missions in these environments. A PCM HX allows a vehicle to store excess waste energy by thawing a phase change material such as n-pentadecane wax. During portions of the orbit that are extremely cold, the excess energy is rejected, resolidifying the wax. Due to the inherent risk of compromising the heat exchanger during multiple freeze and thaw cycles, a unique payload was designed for the International Space Station to test and demonstration the functions of a PCM HX. The payload incorporates the use of a pumped fluid system and a thermoelectric heat exchanger to promote the freezing and thawing of the PCM HX. This paper shall review the design and development undertaken to build such a system.

Sheth, Rubik B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗